Posts Tagged ‘margin debt’

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

What an amazing recovery!  

Just one week ago the World was coming to and end and now everyone has their rally caps back on.  Investors really are sheep – except I think sheep have better memories…  We're still right on plan of dropping 10% and then bouncing 4% (strong bounces) by Wednesday (today) that was initiated on October 6th by our friends at the Fed (see yesterday's post for the summary).  For those of you keeping score, our strong bounce predictions for today were:

  • Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
  • S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
  • Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
  • NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).  
  • Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow is just 17 points away from our goal and we'll just need the NYSE and the Russell to confirm their bounce lines and THEN we can get bullish again.  Meanwhile, we actually got a bit more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio (also in yesterday's post) as our Long-Term Portfolio popped right back to up 18.1% for the year so we wanted to lock those gains in with the STP, which finished the day up 81.8%, down from 92% in the morning as the markets rocketed.  

If the rally is real, the Dow should have no problem at all popping our 16,632 line – after all, it jumped 234 points yesterday but stopped dead right at our strong bounce line.  The…
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Margin Debt Increases By 30% In 2009, Currently At $231 Billion

Margin Debt Increases By 30% In 2009, Currently At $231 Billion

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

Barman's 2009 International Drinks Fair Held In Tel Aviv

The NYSE’s most recent disclosure of margin debt indicates a surge in trading in margin accounts, where total debt shot up to $231 billion as of December, up $58 billion from February or 30%, and also an increase of 4.5% from November. This is an indication that "animal spirits" have surged by about the same amount as the broader market since the market lows: in other words, speculation is now rampant, and, to make things even better, is very much on margin, or leveraged. And we all know what happens when levered speculative bets turn out not quite as expected. For those who may be confused, Dow Jones provides a useful primer of how a margin call feedback loop tend to make things ugly, fast.

A potential pitfall for those trading "on margin" is a sharp decline in stock prices, which can expose investors to margin calls, requiring them to post additional collateral lest their brokers sell their securities to cover the debt. A wave of margin calls can worsen selling pressure on stocks and was seen as partly to blame for the market’s woes in the fall and winter of 2008-09…

But why worry – just like in 2006, every sellside (and in many cases, buyside) model now crashes if you plug in negative growth. At that point, coupled with a blue screen of death, the best outcome is to just reboot the computer and head to the nearest pub for a beer or seventeen. In the meantime, all problems will just resolve themselves on their own: especially if you have $100 trillion in discount window borrowings collateralized with recently defaulted securities from AIG’s worthless portfolio. Oh, sorry, the Fed said ML III is worth at least part. So yes, all is good – Go back to drinking.

 


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Zero Hedge

DNC Lawsuit Exposes Corruption, Data Breaches, Raises Questions About Death Of Shawn Lucas

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via Disobedient Media

In June of last year, attorneys Jared Beck and Elizabeth Beck of law firm Beck and Lee filed a class action law suit against the DNC and ...



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Phil's Favorites

Huge Artificial Increase in Credit Scores: Economic Ripple Effect?

Courtesy of Mish.

More than six million U.S. adults will have personal bankruptcies disappear over the next five years as bankruptcy data and defaults roll off credit scores.

As a result, credit scores have surged.

Fair Isaac Corp, the inventor of credit scoring algorithms, reports Credit Scores Hit Record High.

Credit scores for U.S. consumers reached a record high this spring while the share of Americans deemed to be some of the riskiest borrowers hit a record low—a potential boon for lending and economic activity.

Consumers’ improving fortunes reflect falling un...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. stock futures inch higher ahead of packed data week (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures posted mild gains in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, ahead of a heavy week on the data front including consumer-confidence and nonfarm-payrolls numbers.

China's Industrial Profits Rise 14% as Global Trade Improves (Bloomberg)

Industrial profits climbed to 572.8 billion yuan ($83.6 billion) last month, the National Bureau of Statistics ...



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ValueWalk

2017 List Of The Best Investing Blogs On The Planet

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Every year Tobias and I sit down to pick out fifty of the best investing blogs on the planet. This list is by no means complete and is certainly not in any particular order. If you’re an investor take some time to read through the great blogs on this list, they’ll provide you with an awesome starting point for your investing education.

If you think we’ve missed a great investing blog, stick it in the comments section below.

Here’s 50 of the best investing blogs on the planet for 2017, plus a couple more:

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Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

We...



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Chart School

Wyckoff Bitcoin target $5,000

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The bitcoin rally is not occurring because every thing is awesome! Bitcoin is on a scream to $5000 USD because every thing is not awesome, and it can be said that this event is the dawn of change for world fiat currency system.

More from RTT Tv

Point and Figure charts are excellent for price forecast from phases of accumulation (and distribution), the forecasts are not a point were price stops, the forecasts are zone were to watch out for a change of character in price action to be aware that supply (or demand) may enter the chart.





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Digital Currencies

One Professional Investor's Take On Bitcoin

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog

We all know Dirty Harry’s viewpoint about opinions, but I wonder what Detective Callahan would think about today’s bitcoin mania. It seems like every Tom, Dick and Harry feels obliged to weigh in about the manic action of the their favourite virtual currency, yet I am curious how many of these crack pundits have ever even transacted in bitcoin.

I am by no means an expert, but have at least owned bitcoins, mined th...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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