This was a superb interview on earlier this morning. It’s interesting to note that Roubini appears to have succumbed to the pressure of turning into bull and done so after the 50% rally – classic scientific method & economist error. Faber, of course, is far less optimistic:
We learned that the repeated pleadings of the TBAC (starting in May and continuing throughout the year) for a Taper, did not fall on deaf ears, and the Fed finally became aware that it is monetizing US debt at too feverish a pace resulting in an acute lack of liquidity in the bond market.
We learned that despite the arrival of the taper, Bernanke will end his tenure with the lamentable record of having been the only Fed Chairman never to have started a tightening cycle (remember: according to Bernanke “tapering is not tightening”).
We learned that even though the Fed has taken its first step toward balance sheet renormalization one year after l...
The Financial Times notes a Big rise in subordinated debt issuance by EU banks Banks have taken advantage of yield-chasing investors to issue $90.7bn of subordinated debt for the year to date, a 41 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2012. It is the highest such volume since the $122.4bn seen in 2008 according to Dealogic, the data provider.
The figures follow a deal agreed by European regulators earlier this month that will bring in so-called bail-in rules for senior bondholders from 2016, two years earlier than envisaged by finance ministers in their common position agreed in June.
Banks are also expected to issue record amounts of loss-absorbing contingent convertible – or “coco” – bonds next year, whi...
Wednesday’s trading session provided us with a perfect example of the maxim that the stock market loves certainty and abhors uncertainty.
More than a few people were surprised to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average skyrocket by 292 points on the day that Ben Bernanke announced a decision by the FOMC to finally initiate the taper of its bond purchases. When Warren Buffett said last May that the Fed’s commencement of the taper would be the “shot heard round the world”, he was not predicting a rally. Nevertheless, the announcement ended several months of nail-biting and sleepless nights ahead of FOMC meetings. More than anything else, the stock market loves certainty. Wednesday’s trading session proved the validity of that old maxim.
LEN – Lennar Corporation – Shares in U.S. homebuilder Lennar Corp. are rallying on Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that handily beat the average of analyst estimates. The stock increased as much as 5.0% at the start of the session to $36.97, the highest level since the end of October, but are currently well off their highs to trade up 1.4% on the day at $35.69 as of 11:15 a.m. EST.
Trading in Lennar call options initiated within the first 10 minutes of the trading day suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of Lenna...
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
With the S&P 500 up just over 24% year-to-date, it is a good time to measure stock market valuation and inflation. This post has been updated from our original post on September 13, 2013.
In previous posts, I have argued why using the Big Mac Index may be a good alternative to measure inflation rather than using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In this post, I extend the research further to include a comparison with valuations in the stock market.
Expanding on work from Ed Easterling and Doug Short, I compare the price-to-earning ratio 10 year (P/E10) to inflation as measured by the Big Mac Index. I have chosen to use the P/E10, or cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE), because th...
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has come to a settlement with Israel's Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE: TEVA), that will allow Teva to to launch a generic version of the anti-impotency drug Viagra in late 2017.
While most of the agreement's terms remain confidential, Pfizer says Teva will pay a royalty to license the generic version of the drug.
Backed by positive economic announcements from the Empire Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production, along with much improved growth from Europe, the market broke its string of four losing sessions with the S&P gaining 0.6% and the recently weak Russell 2000 up a sturdy 1.2%. Virtually all sectors did well, led by Energy, Industrials and Financials. Energy was up by more than 1%.
Traders remain cautious with many betting on whether or not the Fed will announce the end of the QE3 stimulus bond buying program with the FOMC report on Wednesday. Perhaps the sudden enthusiasm by at least some of the leading economists for the ...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...
These rallies are becoming familiar. In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up, early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak). It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE. So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Come and get it! Read all about it! Biotechs, biotechs and more biotechs to buy buy buy for your portfolio! To date, almost 30 biotech companies have hit the market. Most of the time, there are fewer than 10-12!
For the last five years, biotechs have had issues obtaining offer prices above expectations. In 2013, that trend looks to be broken. According to BiotechNow, the offer prices are 4% above expectations! In addition, biotechs are going public with little more than a wing and a prayer (pre-clinical or Phase 1 data only). Really? What this means is that the drug or technology looks good in mice, rats, or dogs, etc, but there is no smidgen of evidence that it will work in humans. That's what is called an appitite for RISK!
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Philstockworld, LLC (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.