Posts Tagged ‘market timing’

Phil Davis’ Mircowave Oven Theory of Behavior

I mentioned my Microwave Oven Theory this morning and I didn't realize it was hard to find so here it is again:

Last Thursday, I mentioned that Jim Rogers said:

I am as confused as anybody else (about the level of bearishness on the Euro).  Usually that indicates a rally… Once a technical rally starts, who knows where it can go from that. 

Don't you wish other people would be that honest with us?  It's very hard for people who give opinions for a living to stand in front of an audience and say: "I don't know."   Somehow they seem to feel that they HAVE to know and, what's worse, once they force themselves to make a decision, they somehow feel obligated to defend it, even if new evidence comes out to the contrary.

This is exactly what's wrong with financial reporters and analysts, especially the clowns on TV (as well as pretty much anyone who makes a living giving you their opinion).   My Members are familiar with something I'm going to share with you now.  It is a Nobel Prize-worthy theory that I feel helps make me a better trader and I thought this would be a good time to share it with you:

People love to make random decisions and stick to them like they were directly given it as a commandment!

How does this relate to microwaves? Well, aside from the fact that our brains are constantly being fried by the things every day (ever drive on the highway and see one of those dishes aimed right at you?  Do you know birds die if they fly too close to them?), this is what I observe:

You put something in the microwave, say pizza, and you put in a time, say 3:33 (or maybe you are a whole number person and do 3 or 4 minutes). Now, unless you are a chain store pizza buyer your pizza slice is probably not always the same size or maybe it has different toppings etc., but you probably put in the same number every time.

Theory number 1:  People tend to repeat behavior, especially if it was successful in the past.

So the light goes on and the little thing spins…
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Basic Technical Patterns: The Foundation of Common Pattern Identification

Pharmboy’s latest chapter in his TA eBook – Chapter 7! - Ilene 

Links for previous chapters:

1. Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing (Chp. 1),

2. Dow’s Theory of Markets (Chp. 2),

3 & 4. Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis and Types of Technical Trading (Chps. 3 & 4).

5. Stock Charting Basics: How to Read & Understand Stock Charts (Chp. 5 here.) 

6. Using Moving Averages for Long and Short Trades (Chp. 6)

Basic Technical Patterns: The Foundation of Common Pattern Identification

Courtesy of Pharmboy of Phil’s Stock World 

History tends to repeat itself, and trend lines, triangles, and other patterns do work in TA.  Charts show the collective opinions of all market participants for that day, month, or whatever timeframe that is used.  Charts are direct evidence of the trader’s beliefs and feelings, and each movement reflects a bit of human emotion (or at least it did before speed trading – HAL9000).  So, it should be no surprise that patterns repeat themselves over and over.

In Figure 1 below, typical up trends and down trends are shown.  These zigzag patterns are seen all the time, but why do they form?  Let’s say someone bought a stock at a certain point.  If that stock went up, but pulled back to the original purchase price, they will often think that it’s an opportunity to buy more at their original price, thus adding to their position.  This is also the same for shorts when they are able to short a stock at the same price they shorted previously. Then why do peaks form? People sell (or cover) to take profits.  Obviously, any increase in selling will pull the stock back.  Those who bought at a lower level may start buying again.  This repeats and repeats until 1) there is no more stock left for people to buy, or 2) there is too much supply and not enough buyers.  On a larger scale, this is how bull and bear markets begin and end.

Figure 1  Typical up and down trends.

The following basic chart…
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Zero Hedge

John McCain Kills GOP's Last Ditch Efffort To Repeal Obamacare

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Third time turned out to be unlucky after all.

Earlier today, Sen. Susan Collins said that she has serious concerns about the latest GOP bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare as Republicans prepare to vote on the legislation next week, adding that she was "leaning against the bill... I’m just trying to do what I believe is the right thing for the people of Maine."  And with Collins voicing against the bill, it ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Race For The "Holy Grail" Of Renewables

Courtesy of Irina Slav, OilPrice.com

In February, AES Energy’s Escondido battery storage facility in California was hailed as the largest one to date, with a capacity of 30 MW/120 MWh. Now, Tesla is building a bigger one—100 MW/129 MWh—in Australia. On the face of it, it’s a race for the bigger battery storage system. But there’s much more to it than that.

The race is on for increasingly reliable, grid-scale, quick-to-install energy storage solutions that will make the shift to all-renewable power much more realist...



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ValueWalk

Dotard Vs. Madman: The Linguistic War Between Trump And Kim

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The war of words between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea has escalated… again. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to “tame with fire” U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he referred to as “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.”

Gage Skidmore / Flickr

An official statement released by Kim on Thursday came as an apparent response to Trump’s newly announced eco...



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Insider Scoop

AMD Sells Off As Tesla Rumor Cools Down; Analyst Calls Partnership 'Completely False'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TSLA AMD, Anadarko, Raytheon, Tesla: Fast Money Picks For September 22 Tesla's Cheapest Model S To Be Discontinued ...

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Chart School

Tech Trades Squeeze Stops; Russell 2000 Approaches Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

There is a bit of an overreach on today's action as the level of loss was light. However, the much-anticipated breakouts in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 look like they will have to wait a little longer. Both Tech indices saw the squeeze put on tight long stops, but not enough to suggest a panic sell-off is imminent. However, any sell-off has to be watched; losses below the 50-day MA would be concerning.


The Nasdaq 100 is looking a little more vulnerable with the MACD trigger 'sell' and +DI/-DI sell' trigger. Look to this index for leads.
...

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Digital Currencies

Jamie Dimon Faces Market Abuse Claim Over "False, Misleading" Bitcoin Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A week after Jamie Dimon made headlines by proclaiming Bitcoin a "fraud" and anyone who owns it as "stupid," the JPMorgan CEO faces a market abuse claim for "spreading false and misleading information" about bitcoin.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's panicked outburst wi...



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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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