Bears Bombard Blackberry-Maker, Research in Motion
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 1st, 2010 5:00 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, CAT, MGM, F, SLM, FRX, FXI, MWW & AIG
RIMM - Research in Motion Limited – Blackberry maker, Research in Motion, attracted bearish options strategists even though the firm’s target share price was upped to $100.00 this morning from $95.00 at Canaccord Adams. RIMM opened the session higher, but slipped slightly in afternoon trading by 0.05% to $70.85. One bearish tactic employed today was the use of a plain-vanilla put spread in the March contract. The trader responsible for the transaction purchased 4,400 puts at the March $65 strike for a premium of $0.54 apiece and sold the same number of puts at the lower March $60 strike for $0.20 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to $0.34 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $4.66 per contract are available to the investor if RIMM’s share price slumps 15.30% beneath the current value to $60.00 by expiration. We note that the mobile device manufacturer’s shares last traded below $60.00 on December 4, 2009. The bearish risk reversal is another pessimistic tactic utilized today. One trader sold 5,000 calls at the April $75 strike for a premium of $2.66 each in order to purchase 5,000 puts at the lower April $70 strike for $3.80 apiece. The net cost of the reversal play amounts to $1.14 per contract. The investor stands ready to accrue profits to the downside if shares of the underlying stock trade beneath the effective breakeven point at $68.86 by expiration in April.
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – February marked the seventh consecutive month of manufacturing expansion in the United States; this fact, coupled with today’s jump in equities’ prices, inspired bullish options trading on machine-maker, Caterpillar. CAT’s shares rallied 1.50% during the session to $57.92 after its earnings forecast through the year 2012 were increased by analysts at Morgan Stanley. MS maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on CAT and a $70 share price target, at present. Bullish options activity appeared on the put side of the field where one investor established a credit spread. The trader sold roughly 16,300 puts at the April $55 strike for a premium of $1.38 apiece, and purchased the same number of puts at the lower April $50 strike for $0.47 each. The investor pockets a net credit of $0.91 per contract, and keeps the full amount as long as Caterpillar’s share price remains above $55.00 through expiration day in April. The parameters of…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
MGM Mirage Losses Inspire Downside Plays in Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 18th, 2010 4:06 pm
Today’s tickers: MGM, ANF, JPM, XLP, XNPT, HANS & SIRI
MGM - MGM Mirage, Inc. – The Las Vegas Strip’s largest casino owner posted a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss of $0.25 per share, which underwhelmed analysts anticipating an average loss of just $0.14 a share. Mirage’s shares fell nearly 7% today to $10.85 following the earnings disappointment. One options investor, who does not expect MGM’s luck to change anytime soon, established a medium-term bearish trade on MGM to position for continued downward movement in the price of the underlying stock through June expiration. The trader purchased 2,000 puts at the now in-the-money June $11 strike for a premium of $1.68 apiece, and sold 2,000 puts at the lower June $8 strike for $0.52 each. The net cost of the debit put spread amounts to $1.16 per contract. Maximum available profits of $1.84 per contract accumulate for the pessimistic investor if the casino-operator’s share price slumps another 26.25% lower to $8.00 by expiration day.
ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. - Short straddle plays initiated on clothing company, Abercrombie & Fitch, suggests investors expect ANF-shares to remain range-bound and anticipate lower volatility in the price of the underlying stock through March expiration. Shares of the teen and ‘tween haven for micro-mini jean skirts and pre-destroyed t-shirts rallied 1% to $35.72 today. However, straddle-sellers apparently foresee little movement for shares in either direction from the current value. Investors sold approximately 6,600 puts at the March $35 strike for an average premium of $1.44 apiece in combination with the sale of 6,600 calls at the same strike for $1.46 each. The average gross premium pocketed on the transaction amounts to $2.90 per contract. Traders retain the full premium received today if Abercrombie’s shares settle at $35.00 at expiration. Investors are vulnerable to losses, however, in the event that shares trade outside of the effective breakeven points. Losses accumulate should shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $37.90, or if the stock falls below the lower breakeven point at $32.10, ahead of expiration day in March.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – A large-volume ratio call spread enacted on banking institution, JPMorgan Chase, indicates one big options player expects shares of the underlying stock to rally significantly by June expiration. The firm received an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ with a 12-month target share price of $49.00 at Sandler O’Neill today as JPM shares added 0.50% to stand at…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Wild Weekly Wrap Up - Only Halfway Through January!
by Phil - January 16th, 2010 8:29 am
Wheee, what a ride!
The week can be neatly summed up by my 1:35 comment to Members in yesterday’s chat, summed the week up quite nicely as I said: "So funny, a whole week of gains I thought were ridiculous wiped out in 4 hours." Of course it’s easy to laugh when you play the market correctly - as I had said in the morning post, we had cashed out into Thursday’s run up and planned on going bearish through the weekend but it turned out we got our sell-off early, jumping the $100K Portfolio, for example, up 12% in one day - enough to send us back to cash rather than risk a weekend reversal.
We laid the groundwork for this little sell-off in last weekend’s posts as we put up an aggressive Buy List for Members but in my regular weekend post we emphasized the need to cover our buys with "Disaster Hedges" as we were heading to the tops I had predicted when I published the "Last Charts of the Decade," where I set resistance target of Dow 10,457, S&P 1,135, Nasdaq 2,314, NYSE 7,389 and Russell 638. As you can see, I pretty much hit them on the head, other than the Dow but that’s because our year-old 5% rule calculations did not account for the change in the Dow that replaced C and GM with TRV and CVX, who added about 100 Dow points since their inclusion so we started using 10,549 this month and we’ll make it 10,557 for today’s chart, which makes perfect sense looking at this group (I added the Transports as they are fell right off our 2,000 target, giving us the early warning that things were not right):
As you can see, the 5% Rule rules! I will apologize for being such a grump this week but the rally was really starting to annoy me as it was so blatantly forced up through our levels without a proper test that is was really getting me down about the markets. I don’t mind that the markets are manipulated, that’s been going on since markets were invented - it’s stupid and destructive manipulation that bothers me, the kind that, long term, destroys more investor confidence than it builds and squanders capital resources on the "wrong" companies (and now, ETFs!).
In this case, very precious investor capital is being steered into commodities, which is a very poor use of recessionary capital as is inflating the money supply to…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Investor Initiates Volatility Play on Alcoa Ahead of Earnings
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 11th, 2010 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: AA, GLD, MGM, NXY, INTC, NDAQ, ANDS, F, EEM, MMR & MELI
AA – Alcoa, Inc. – A short straddle play on the largest U.S. producer of aluminum today implies one investor anticipates Alcoa’s shares will remain range-bound through January’s expiration on Friday. Alcoa’s shares appreciated 1% to a new 52-week high of $17.20 (as of 12:40 pm EDT) during the session. According to one Bloomberg article, the firm may report fourth-quarter profits of $0.06 per share today. The sold straddle strategy also indicates the trader expects lower volatility in the price per share. Perhaps this individual is taking advantage of the typical drop in option implied volatility, which tends to accompany earnings announcements. The investor sold 10,000 calls at the January $17.50 strike for a premium of $0.59 apiece, and sold 10,000 puts at the same strike for about $0.69 each. The gross premium pocketed on the trade amounts to $1.28 per contract. The full $1.28 premium is safe in the investor’s wallet if the contracts expire worthless at a share price of $17.50 on Friday. The short call and put positions established today leave the investor vulnerable to potential losses in the event that Alcoa’s shares swing outside of the breakeven boundaries. Losses accrue if shares edge beneath the lower breakeven price of $16.22, or if shares rise above the upper breakeven point at $18.78.
GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – Shares of the exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the price of gold bullion, may be up more than 1.25% to $112.82 today, but option traders populated various contracts with bearish strategies. A hefty put spread appeared in the June contract. The transaction involved the purchase of 17,000 puts at the June $105 strike for a premium of $3.50 each, marked against the sale of 17,000 puts at the lower June $95 strike for roughly $0.52 apiece. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to $2.98 per contract. If the investor is holding a long position in GLD shares, the spread provides downside protection in case shares slip beneath the breakeven price of $102.02, by expiration in June. Additional bearish indications appeared in the September contract. One trader initiated a risk reversal by selling 5,000 calls at the September $130 strike for $4.55 each, spread against the purchase of 5,000 puts at the lower September $100 strike for $3.60 apiece. GLD’s shares must trade beneath $130.00 through expiration in…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Option Traders Try Their Luck with Out-of-the-Money Calls on MGM Mirage
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 23rd, 2009 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: MGM, EWC, EWZ, DHI, XLF, GLW, TRA, CF, PHM, GFI & EBAY
MGM - MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of casino resort operator, MGM Mirage, rallied 5.25% this afternoon to $9.62. Option traders expecting shares to rally significantly in the next 12 months bought call options in the January 2011 contract. Approximately 20,000 calls were purchased at the January 2011 20 strike for an average premium of 70 cents per contract. Investors break even on the calls if MGM’s shares more than double by expiration. Shares must rally at least 115% to the breakeven price of $20.70 in order for call-buyers to begin to accumulate profits.
EWC - iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the performance of publicly traded securities in the Canadian market, attracted pessimistic option players. The bearish risk reversal established on the fund contrasts with the nearly 1.5% rally in shares of the underlying to $26.30 during the session. It appears one investor sold 12,500 calls at the June 27 strike for a premium of 1.60 each, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the lower June 26 strike for two dollars premium apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 40 cents per contract. Profits on the trade – assuming the investor holds no underlying stock position – accrue if shares of the EWC slip beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $25.60 by expiration in June 2010.
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – A number of bullish trades on the Brazil exchange-traded fund today suggest shares of the EWZ are set to rally in the first few months of the new year. Shares edged 1.5% higher during the trading day to stand at $73.21. Optimistic traders employed a number of different option strategies in order to position for bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock. One trader initiated a risk reversal in the January contract by selling 6,000 puts at the January 72 strike for 1.80 each, spread against the purchase of 6,000 in-the-money calls at the same strike for 2.70 apiece. The cost of getting long the call options is reduced to 90 cents per contract for the reversal player. Profits on the position amass above the breakeven price of $72.90. Another option bull unfurled the wings of a butterfly spread in the March contract. The trader purchased the 1000-lot wings of the…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Retail Reversal Combination Grabs Attention on XRT
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 4th, 2009 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, MGM, DE, GLD, UUP, NWL, HNZ, EWZ, UNH, OSTK & STEC
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – A three-legged transaction in the December contract on the retail exchange-traded fund reveals bearish sentiment by one investor. Shares of the XRT are trading nearly 1% higher today to $34.60. It looks like the trader sold call options in order to offset the cost of buying a put spread. The put spread involved the purchase of 5,000 puts at the December 33 strike for a premium of 1.07 apiece, marked against the sale off 5,000 puts at the lower December 30 strike for approximately 37 cents each. The sale of 5,000 calls at the higher December 36 strike knocked another 87 cents per contract off the total price of the bearish play. The investor more than offset the cost of buying the spread and thus receives a net credit of 17 cents per contract. The full credit is retained by the trader as long as shares of the XRT remain below $36.00 through expiration. Additional profits may accumulate if shares dip below $33.00, while maximum potential gains of 3.00 per contract require that shares trade down to $30.00.
MGM - MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of the casino resort operator slipped 2.5% lower to $9.40 today but one options optimist initiated a bullish play on the stock in the March 2010 contract. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread by buying one in-the-money call option for every three out-of-the-money calls sold. The investor purchased 10,000 calls at the deep in-the-money March 7.0 strike for 3.20 apiece and simultaneously sold 30,000 calls at the higher March 12 strike for 1.05 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to just one nickel per contract. The investor probably does not expect shares to rally through $12.00 by expiration because he is short 20,000 calls at that strike price in the March contract. Shares of MGM last traded above $12.00 on October 14, 2009.
DE - Deere & Co. – A large bearish butterfly spread appeared in the March 2010 contract on the agricultural equipment maker. The transaction indicates one investor is positioning for significant declines in the price of DE shares by expiration. Shares are down 1% to $46.76 with just under 90 minutes remaining in the trading day. The investor purchased the upper wing of the spread at the March 40 strike…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Tech Back in Demand as Call Buyers Line Up at XLK
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 11th, 2009 4:39 pm
Today’s tickers: XLK, RF, NBR, MCD, KEY, MGM, HBAN & LVS
XLK - The tech-sector exchange-traded fund attracted a hoard of call buyers this afternoon amid a less than 0.5% decline in shares during the session to $20.62. Traders expecting upward momentum in the price of the stock looked to the December 22 strike price where approximately 35,000 call options were purchased for an average premium of 43 cents per contract. Investors will turn a profit on the calls if shares of the XLK rise 9% from the current level to surpass the breakeven price of $22.43 by expiration in December. – Technology Select Sector SPDR –
RF - Investors exhibited near-term bearish sentiment on RF today by piling into put options on the stock. Shares of Regions Financial have slipped 1% lower today to stand at the current price of $5.54. The heaviest volume was observed at the September 5.0 strike where about 31,000 puts look to have been purchased for an average premium of 11 cents apiece. More pessimistic traders looked to the lower October 4.0 strike to get long of 3,100 puts valued at 10 cents per contract. Perhaps traders exhibiting such behavior are long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the put action was inspired by traders seeking downside protection through expiration next Friday and through October’s expiration day. – Regions Financial –
NBR The largest onshore drilling firm edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner today due to call action in the October contract. Investors were apparently not discouraged from taking bullish stances on the stock even though shares are currently lower by about 1% to $18.84. Approximately 6,000 calls were coveted at the October 20 strike for an average premium of 95 cents apiece. Traders long the calls are hoping to see shares rally about 11% higher by expiration so that they may begin to garner profits above the breakeven point at $20.95. – Nabors Industries Limited –
MCD - Traders hungry for calls – or perhaps a Big Mac – placed bullish bets on the golden arches using options despite a 1% decline in the price of its shares to $54.36. Nearer-term optimism was observed at the October 60 strike where approximately 4,500 calls were pocketed for an average premium of 12 cents per contract. Perhaps the continued rise in unemployment has helped fuel bullish sentiment on the fast food chain. McDonald’s, which…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Option Bulls Covet Coal-Calls on ACI
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 9th, 2009 4:27 pm
Today’s tickers: ACI, MGM, EWJ, HSY, YHOO, TIE & GLD
ACI - Far-term option bulls were not discouraged from establishing optimistic positions on the coal producer today despite the nearly 2% decline in shares during the trading session to $17.84. Investors looking for shares to rally significantly by the start of 2010 purchased 2,000 calls at the January 23 strike for an average premium of 70 cents apiece. ACI would need to rally 33% higher for individuals long these calls to breakeven at $23.70 by expiration. Option traders also picked up 2,000 calls at the April 2010 22 strike for 1.50 per contract. Finally, curious call spreads appeared in the January 2011 contract. The trades were a bit blurred but it seems likely that the activity represents a ratio call spread. If this is the case, the investor responsible for the trade purchased about 3,000 calls at the January 30 strike for 1.40 each. These contracts were spread against the sale of some 6,000 calls at the higher January 35 strike for 93 cents premium. The trader receives a net credit of 46 cents on the transaction. He will retain the full credit and add to that amount if shares rally higher than $30.00 by expiration. Maximum potential profits on the spread amount to 5.00 (excluding the credit received today), achieved in the event that shares of ACI surge a whopping 96% from the current price by expiration in January 2011. – Arch Coal, Inc. –
MGM - The casino operator attracted bullish bets by option traders today amid a more than 7.5% rally in shares to $10.13. Notable near-term call interest was apparent at the September 11 strike price where more than 7,100 lots exchanged hands. Approximately 5,500 of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of 23 cents apiece. Investors long the calls will begin to accrue profits if shares of MGM can rise 11% higher to surpass the breakeven point at $11.23 by expiration in less than two weeks. Traders clearly favored MGM calls over puts during the session as evidenced by the call-to-put ratio of more than 3-to-1 on the stock today. – MGM Mirage, Inc. –
EWJ - The EWJ jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor juggled massive chunks of calls on the stock. Shares of the exchange-traded fund are currently up 0.5% to $10.18. The trader originally purchased 50,000…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Whirlpool Call Buyers in a Spin Over New Chinese Factory
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 16th, 2009 5:49 pm
Today’s tickers: WHR, MRK, EBAY, RHI, XLP, MOS, GE, LSI & MGM
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Nvdia Options Under the Spotlight
by Andrew Wilkinson - June 10th, 2009 5:54 pm
Today’s tickers: NVDA, BJS, LDK, MCD, CAT, MGM & IYR
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(