The melt-up continues today as “buy the dip” has turned into “buy the rip”. David Rosenberg is dusting off Bob Farrell’s 10 rules as the market soars:
Not only have sentiment indicators flagged a high level of investor complacency but also the equity market looks highly overbought right now. Looking at the internals, there is much less buoyancy than there is on the surface. As an example, back in April there were at least 600 stocks on the Big Board making new highs versus around 180 right now. Moreover, back at the April highs, we had well over 90% of the S&P 500 universe trading above their 200-day moving average and currently that share is barely above 70%. Keep these metrics in mind when judging the health and breadth of the overall market, and be sure to dust off Bob Farrell’s Rule 7: “Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.”
But let’s not forget Farrell’s first rule either:
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
The Nasdaq 100 has rallied 21% in 7 weeks. The Russell 2,000 has rallied 20% in 7 weeks. These are your greed indices. The ones where the pigs go to die at market peaks. At the May peak , the Russell was 10% from its 50 day moving average while it is 9% from its 50 day moving average today. The Nasdaq 100 was 6.5% from its 50 day moving average in May. Today it is 9.5%! This does not spell impending doom, but the 3 month risk adjusted returns from such a level are very poor.
The risks just strike me as being extraordinary at these levels. Complacency is high, everyone is bullish, everyone buys every dip, all the news is good, etc. The pool of greater fools has gotten mighty crowded and my hands are starting to get pruny. I wouldn’t buy this market with my worst enemy’s nest egg.
While Bernanke may be about to leave; none other than his mentor and thesis adviser - former Bank of Israel chief Stanley Fischer is rumored to be in line for a new role:
FISCHER STEPPED DOWN AS BANK OF ISRAEL GOVERNOR IN JUNE
FISCHER LEADING CANDIDATE TO BE DEPUTY FED CHIEF: ISRAEL CH. 2
DJ WHITE HOUSE NEAR NOMINATING STANLEY FISCHER TO FED VICE CHAIR
And so the circle of life is complete. So far, the White House has declined to comment, but we note Fischer has a reputation for beng more hawkish than most - evidenced by his refusal to engage in the kind of dovish activity the re...
Unless a farm bill passes by the end of the year, the crop subsidy program will revert to 1949 policies and the government would be required to stockpile milk until it reached $37.20 per hundred pounds. The current price is about $19.00.
Why our legislators would write ridiculous laws like this is totally beyond me, but they did.
The House wants to pass an extension to resolve the issues, but the Senate says no. So here we sit wondering if the price of milk is going to double.
Bloomberg reports Extension of Farm Subsidies Rebuffed by Senate Democrats An extension of U.S. agriculture subsidies to late January was rebuffed yesterday by Senate Democrats, who said they won’t pass any House plan for ...
NanoString Technologies (NASDAQ: NSTG) today announced nationwide availability of the Prosigna™ Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay beginning in the first quarter of 2014. Premier national diagnostic laboratories ARUP Laboratories, Laboratory Corporation of America® Holdings (LabCorp®) (LH), and Quest Diagnostics (DGX) have chosen to add the Prosigna Assay to their comprehensive suites of breast cancer diagnostic tests, providing patients treated throughout the U.S. with timely access to a genomic assay that assesses a tumor's underlying biology and risk of distant recurrence. NanoString Technologies also announced that laboratories at the University of Alabama at Birmingham Comprehensive Cancer Center and University of North Carolina Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center will be a...
Investors lost their enthusiasm on Tuesday as the December 13 budget deadline approached with more dysfunction on Capitol Hill.
The S&P 500 Index retreated from Monday’s record high on Tuesday, as investors watched another budget battle unfold in Washington, with the clock ticking down to the December 13 deadline. Although this latest battle appears less toxic than the previous episodes, investors obviously remained skeptical as the major stock indices fell into the red.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) lost 52 points to finish Tuesday’s trading session at 15,973 for a 0.33 percent decline. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell 0.32 percent to close at 1,802....
IEP – Icahn Enterprises L.P. – Shares in Icahn Enterprises fell 10% to $133.67 on Tuesday morning after the company yesterday announced the sale of 2,000,000 depositary units. Shares in IEP yesterday rose to an all-time high of $149.77.
The sizable move in the price of the underlying sparked heavier than usual options activity on the stock today, with overall volume approaching 5,000 contracts as of 11:20 a.m. EST versus average daily options volume of around 1,400 contracts. The largest increase in open interest in IEP options overnight was in the Dec $145...
Today, with very little market moving news, the S&P 500 closed at 1808.4, yet another new closing daily high. The index did touch the 1811 area on at least three distinctly different time slots creating a new resistance level. But after last week’s bevy of positive economic surprises, the sharp gain of 1.1% on Friday, leaving the index just a tiny point away from its ninth consecutive up week, we can’t be too quick to suggest today was a topping rally. For one thing, volume was quite low as traders seemed to be trying to sort out the odds on the earliest date of Fed tapering. Estimates range from this month to March and even later. But it’s going to happen…so why so much emphasis on when? Perhaps protection of end-of-the-year profits in so many fund managers portfolios? ...
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These rallies are becoming familiar. In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up, early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak). It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE. So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
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Come and get it! Read all about it! Biotechs, biotechs and more biotechs to buy buy buy for your portfolio! To date, almost 30 biotech companies have hit the market. Most of the time, there are fewer than 10-12!
For the last five years, biotechs have had issues obtaining offer prices above expectations. In 2013, that trend looks to be broken. According to BiotechNow, the offer prices are 4% above expectations! In addition, biotechs are going public with little more than a wing and a prayer (pre-clinical or Phase 1 data only). Really? What this means is that the drug or technology looks good in mice, rats, or dogs, etc, but there is no smidgen of evidence that it will work in humans. That's what is called an appitite for RISK!
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