by ilene - August 1st, 2010 1:01 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short
It’s time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.
This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.
Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.
For those who prefer the overlay aligned with the 2007 S&P 500 peak, here is the nominal Mega-Bear Quartet charts and commentary.
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today’s market in relation to historic market cycles.
by ilene - July 27th, 2010 3:42 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge
Rosie’s market commentary from today is quite colorful, taking on both Barton Biggs (why bother) and Richard Russell as inflection point contrarians (we fully expect Barton Biggs who has now generated enough commissions for his broker to kill his entire P&L for the decade, to go bearish in about two weeks in keeping with his latest standing wave oscillation from one extreme to another). Rosie discusses a topic near and dear, namely that bonds continue to not buy the equity rally, and that the market is really not only stupid and inefficient, but wrong and overshooting most of the time. The only question is for how long can it remain wrong. And courtesy of the Fed, the answer is long, long, long. Not surprisingly David ridicules the constant lack of volume to the upside, and concludes that the rally should be faded, and that "this market is completely unprepared for 500k claims and sub-50 ISM." Obviously, he expects both to occur shortly (and just in time for Shiller to say he believes the chance of a double dip is more than 50%).
MARKET COMMENT … WE’RE ALL CHARTISTS NOW
We’re 142 trading days into the year – 52 days (37%) have seen 1% or greater moves. And the S&P 500 is now flat as a beaver’s tail on the year. I call this the meat-grinder market. Again, a huge rally into yesterday’s close – and now the S&P 500 is sitting right at the 200-day moving average. This is starting to get interesting. Again, the lack of ratification from Mr. Bond as the 10-year note yield came back and closed the day a smidgen below 3%.
Today is a critical day. The interim peaks since the April 23rd peak have been progressively lower but a three-point rally in the S&P 500 today would break that pattern:
April 23rd: 1217.3
May 12th: 1171.7
June 18th: 1117.5
July 26th: 1115.0
We should add that we are at a new post-April high in the Dow and the NYSE (the latter is not yet at the 200-day m.a.). We’re not there yet on the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq (13 points off) but we are getting close. While everyone is fixated on the 200-day moving average, we add…
by Chart School - June 29th, 2010 10:30 am
Today Adam of Market Club explores Japanese candlestick lines. One line on the chart indicates that there could be some major problems ahead for the stock market.
Check out the video: click here.
by ilene - May 7th, 2010 12:00 am
Courtesy of Mish
Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext says Electronic Trading to Blame for Plunge
Computerized trades sent to electronic networks turned an orderly stock market decline into a rout today, according to Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext.
While the first half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 998.5-point plunge probably reflected normal trading, the selloff snowballed because of orders sent to venues with no investors willing to match them, Leibowitz said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Plunge Raises Alarm on Computerized Trading
Inquiring minds are reading Stock plunge raises alarm on algo trading
A spine-chilling slide of nearly 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its biggest intraday points drop ever, led to heightened calls for a crackdown on computer-driven high-frequency trading.
The slide, which in one 10-minute stretch knocked the index down nearly 700 points, may have been triggered by a trading error. Major stock indexes eventually recovered from their 9 percent drops to close down a little more than 3 percent.
But the follow-through selling that pushed stocks of some highly regarded companies into tailspins exacerbated concerns that regulators can quickly lose control of the markets in a world of algorithmic trading.
"The potential for giant high-speed computers to generate false trades and create market chaos reared its head again today," Senator Edward Kaufman said in a statement.
"The battle of the algorithms — not understood by nor even remotely transparent to the Securities and Exchange Commission — simply must be carefully reviewed and placed within a meaningful regulatory framework soon."
Computers vs. Computers
In essence computers trading against computers decided at some point today to throw in the towel and not bid.
At some point (manual intervention?) they all decided to bid again, driving stock prices back up. This is what our stock market casino has become.
Lovely, isn’t it?
I have been waiting for this to happen and today it did. Supposedly, computer trading lowers volatility and bid/ask spreads for traders. Today we see that works until it doesn’t.
Most of the day Citigroup was erroneously blamed for the plunge. Citigroup was not to blame, flash-trading computers vs. computers with fake orders appears to be the culprit.
Who benefits from…
by markettamer - April 9th, 2010 10:47 pm
Courtesy of Market Tamer
by Chart School - March 17th, 2010 4:53 pm
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
The SP is trying to break out of the trend and hold it’s gains. I would not get in front of this, unless you wish to guarantee an opportunity for an additional short squeeze. Remember, the wiseguys can peek into your collective hand at will, and read your strategy within milliseconds of your executing it. That is why playing short term trends is becoming increasingly difficult for the individual speculator.
It is useful to watch the Nasdaq 100 at key support and resistance levels, as well as the broader indices. The SP futures are generally the ‘push’ where the flash and sizzle of bull markets occur of late. Buying the futures drags much of the market behind it. But this can only last for so long unless additional ‘real’ buying steps in.
Formidable retracement. Now the rally must show its mettle and either confirm an economic recovery or the start of a new bubble led by financial assets, or not.
Little pricing in of fear, but the markets remain thin and a bit uneasy.
The Dollar is hanging on to support.
by Phil - December 30th, 2009 11:38 pm
OK, I got a new toy today so I’m going to put up some charts!
Rather than my usual spreadsheets, I thought a visual representation of what I think is going on would be appropriate. So far this week, we have failed to break my levels, which were predicted by our own 5% rule way back in July. I don’t have a drawing tool for the 5% rule but I’ll try to give you an idea of what I see when I look at a chart, now that I can capture them for you.
First of all, let’s look at the S&P, which the analysts are ga-ga over as they make a 50% retracement of the March dive:
Notice the 50% mark is right about our 1,127 watch zone but we didn’t get 1,127 from that spot, we calculated 1,127 as it was a 30% move off the real floor of 867, which is our 5% rule drop. The 5% rule sensibly tells us to throw out spikes and, while it’s hard to think of a 3-month, 200-point drop as a spike, in the grand scheme of things it still is. Here’s how the same Fibonacci series looks if we take 867 as a bottom, rather than 666:
Not quite as impressive a recovery is it? Do you see how the adjusted chart makes far more sense on the way down – with support at the 61.8% line, then at the 50% line and then clearly at 0. The big difference is, in my view of the action, it has been an easy slog to make the effectively dead-cat bounce back to 38.2%. This recent action proves nothing as we have yet to test 1,135, which should provide heavier resistance. It’s going to be a long time before we do a "life cross" (where the 50 wma moves above the 200 wma) so that 1,220 mark is going to weigh very heavily in the future as well, probably all the way into August before the S&P is ready to make a real move up (assuming we don’t fall down in between).
Running the same series on the Dow, we get this:
.jpg)
Of course the problem with the Dow is that the Dow we have now is NOT the same Dow that fell last year. We jettisoned GM and C for CSCO and TRV – a very good trade…
by ilene - December 23rd, 2009 4:47 pm
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
We have not seen much profit taking yet into year end despite a spectacular rally from the market bottom.
Wait for it. This may be a nascent asset bubble being created to offset the coming writedowns in Commercial Real Estate and the bad debt remaining on the books of the banks.
by ilene - October 28th, 2009 8:07 pm
Gulliver and the Lilliputions
Yes, we all get excited when an Amazon.com scorches their earnings forecast or when an Apple Inc. Suge Knights the whole sell-side with a massive beat, but should that enthusiasm really spread to other stocks?
One of the dangers of extrapolating the good earnings reports out of Apple, Amazon or Intel is that in reality, these three companies have no real competitors. I know they pretend they do (or even imagine they do), but trust me, they don’t. Let’s take them one by one.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Apple has a monopoly – on Apple products! They don’t compete with Dell for the simple reason that Dell doesn’t sell iPhones or Mac laptops, they only sell Dell stuff. Hewlett-Packard, while a great company in their own right, also doesn’t sell iPods or own the world’s most important music store (iTunes).
Apple is a de facto monopoly and so their results are only very indirectly meaningful to the sellers of any other personal technology products. In fact, their success can be downright detrimental to the results of others (go ask Nokia or whatever jackass is working on the next iteration of the Microsoft Zune).
Amazon.com (AMZN)
The Buffetts of the world prefer owning companies that have a wide moat, meaning they have a barrier against other companies who would look to compete. Amazon has moat that is filled, not unlike its titular river, with enough piranhas to eat any pretender alive who dares to set up shop. Oh, and the piranhas in Amazon’s moat are armed to the teeth and carry an especially lethal venom containing a mixture of swine flu, asbestos and arsenic.
There’s a digital graveyard somewhere in Silicon Valley filled with the remains of such pretenders, like eToys, Buy.com, CDNow and anyone else still hanging around. And don’t get me started on Barnes and Noble, I buy and read 50 or 60 books a year and I still don’t even know their e-store’s URL.
Intel (INTC)
Referring to AMD versus Intel as a David and Goliath situation is being way too generous. In actuality, Intel’s Goliath is really battling David’s pet poodle, named Pumpernickel. AMD has been nipping at Intel’s ankles for as long as I’ve been in the business, to
…
by Chart School - September 15th, 2009 3:51 pm
Our friend Brad at Market Club is excited about a new notification tool, called "Alerts." It’s an email alert system that makes it easy to stay on top of their Trade Triangles system, as well as 18 other breakout patterns. Brad just sent me a video that explains how it all works. Just click here.
p.s. To check out the latest chart analyses at Market Club, click here. There are videos on Gold, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and various technical analysis methods unique to the Market Club.
February 11th, 2012 11:03 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The prophetic words of Antal Fekete in his now infamous 'essay' on Gold are as relevant now (perhaps more so) as they were when he first wrote them 15 years ago - especially as the Euro-zone migrates from lossening fiat-money to quasi-money (greek pharma bonds for instance). While summarizing this must-read discussion of mainstream economic orthodoxy's mis-teachings is impractical, his initial introduction sets the stage for what is to come: "The year 1971 was a milestone in the history of money and credit. Previously, in the world's most developed countries, money (and hence cred...
February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm
Submitted by Mark HannaCourtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…
Disclosure NoticeAny securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
...February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm
It's Well Past Time for Plan ZCourtesy of The Automatic Earth
Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”
Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...
February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.
Next? Could Be?
What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.
From the article:
"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...
February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fearsAfter wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
more from Caitlin
February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
...February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(blogroll, archives,
more).
Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and
content sharing
programs.
|
|
|
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Philstockworld, LLC (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. |
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn 
del.icio.us
Digg
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese