Posts Tagged ‘NWS’

World Record Wednesday – S&P Ironically Makes 1984

SPY 5 MINUTE1984!  

As I pointed out in our Member Chat Room this morning, there is a Bloomberg article this morning on the CPI report that says:

The cost of living in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in June and home sales climbed to an eight-month high, showing the economy is generating little price pressure as growth accelerates.

But growth is NOT accelerating, is it?  We JUST had a GDP report that showed exactly the opposite, yet here we have a noted MSM publication simply ignoring that FACT:

How do people read these things and just accept them?  How do authors write them?  How do editors OK them?  Not even the commenters seem to catch it – it's like the whole World just accepts the BS of the moment.  

This is what Orwell predicted it would be like in a future where the media became electronic and the past was instantly forgotten by a population that was unable to think for itself.  

It took them 30 more years than planned, but here we are!  

"And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed -if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth. 'Who controls the past,' ran the Party slogan, 'controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.' And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered. Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting. It was quite simple. All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. 'Reality control', they called it: in Newspeak, 'doublethink'.

"The past, he reflected, had not merely been altered, it had been actually destroyed. For how could you establish even


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Tuesday – Fox News says President Not to Blame for Oil Prices – America Must Conserve!

For once I have to agree with Fox (and thanks to D Virginia for the link):  

With gas at $3.87 and over $4 in California, New York and Illinois, Fox news says other journalists don't check "the substance of the accusations against the President," the media needs to "look at certain claims and promises to see what the facts are behind them."  And what are the facts that Fox News presents us with?  

  • Cal Thomas:  "No President has the power to increase or to lower gas prices – Those are market forces."  
  • Neil Cavuto:  "China and India are slopping up oil faster than we can these days and THAT is the not so sinister response to what's going on."
  • Cheryl Casone:  "At this point, it really is tough for this President, I have to be honest with you, because he really does not have any control over what's going to happen with the markets and with the economy and with oil prices and with supply and demand and gasoline – it really is out of this President's hands."  
  • Bill O'Reilly: "Yesterday oil hit a record high and politicians can't do anything about it."  
  • Joe D'Agostino (VP of NYMEX on O'Reilly): "The only thing we can do is start to use less energy."  
  • Bill O'Reilly: "If every American who owns an automobile or an air conditioner says "I'm going to use 10% less" – the prices then would fall… Politicians can't do this."  
  • News team:  "Get rid of gas guzzlers, buy decent insulation for your house and tell your local, elected officials to get on the stick and do some more mass transit/infrastructure spending because those kinds of fixes that can really help Americans."  
  • News team:  "Drilling an ANWR would reduce the price of oil by about 40 cents a barrel (1 penny per gallon) or maybe as much at $1.40 per barrel (3.3 cents per gallon)."  "If we drilled in ANWR we would get 4% of our daily consumption in oil."  "It would take 20 years for saving from ANWR drilling to be realized."
  • O'Reilly: "So the next time you hear a politician say he or she will bring down oil prices, UNDERSTANT IT'S COMPLETE BS!  If Americans want lower gas prices, cut back – that's what the candidates SHOULD be saying.  Sell those SUV's, ride a bike when


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Monday Mourning – Good Night Dear Leader

A young salute: A picture of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, his first wife, Kim Jong-suk, and his son, Kim Jong Il, is displayed at the Unification Hall at the West Seoul Life Science High School in Seoul

 

Oh, hello Mr. Seoul,

I dropped by
to pick up a reason

Stick around while the clown
who is sick
does the trick of disaster 

 

Asia was in turmoil last night as news of the death of Kim Jong Il hit the wires.  South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 3.4%, both the Shanghai and Hang Seng fell more than 2% at their opens but, along with the Nikkei, they all finished strong and down about 1.25%.  My comment on the matter to Members at 11:29 last night was:  

Meanwhile, Dear Leader has died and that shot the Dollar back to 81 and knocked the futures down half a point.  Asia is down more like 2% as no one is please with Jr. taking over in South Korea.  I always find that amusing when leaders who are hated die and the markets react negatively – as if the next guy could be worse.  Markets just hate uncertainty but China is in charge of N. Korea – I doubt Kim’s son is going to suddenly declare war or whatever it is people are worried about.  He’s just 27 and probably not suicidal

If anything (but I’m going to bed), I’d take oil long off the $93 line (/CL), which is where we liked them Friday.  Gold already zoomed back to $1,600 and has been rejected there and the Dollar doesn’t look that strong above 81 so far.  

IEF WEEKLYSo far, my logic is holding up as things have already calmed down and oil topped out at $94.50 at 5:30, for a nice $1,500 per contract gain in less than 6 hours.  I find it easier to trade futures off news like that than they are to play during the US Market hours as the moves internationally, still seem to make a little sense while the moves in the US market are often pure nonsense.  

Speaking of nonsense, David Fry agrees with me on Treasury rates as we are now falling below what you can get in an FDIC-insured deposit, which I consider the non-panic limit for rates.  Unfortunately, we do get plenty of panic at a drop of the hat these days and TLT shorts were our big loser last week but we stuck with them for January, hoping things calm down
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Super Tuesday Committee Failure – So What?

The Super-Committee is dead

Long live the Debt!  In case you are voting in the next election – here are 12 people to get rid of.  Much as I may blame one party over another for this failure, they all deserve what's coming to them for A) Pretending they were going to accomplish something and B) For not now getting up and making very strong statements denouncing the corruption in politics that make it impossible for Congress to do the Nation's business anymore.  

In case you happen to be a Fox News viewer, I will try to keep this VERY simple because, as it turns out, we now have definitive studies that prove Fox News MAKES YOU STUPID.  Of course, it is possible that only stupid people watch Fox News but I know many people who think they are smart and watch Fox News so I have to blame Fox News here as do researchers at Farleigh Dickenson University who found "The results show us that there is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these questions than those who don’t watch any news at all."   As I can tell you from raising my own children to be good citizens:  

The biggest aid to answering correctly is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, which leads to a 6-point decrease in identifying the protesters as Republicans, and a 12-point increase in the likelihood of giving the correct answer. "Jon Stewart has not spent a lot of time on some of these issues," said Cassino. "But the results show that when he does talk about something, his viewers pick up a lot more information than they would from other news sources."

Watching Fox News, by the way, led to an 18-point disadvantage (out of 53% of all respondents) in being able to answer questions like "Were Egyptians successful in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak" or "Has the Syrian uprising been successful" but that was a Fox viewer's area of expertise compared to having a clue of what is going on in American politics other than "Obama sucks."  Tied with Daily show viewers for best informed were NPR supporters but, sadly, only
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Friday Market Follies – Following Murdoch’s Money

A statement was issued by Merkel and Sarkozy yesterday

As translated by the Financial Times, it read:  

The President and German Chancellor spoke today by telephone to prepare the European dates in the coming days.

The President and the Chancellor have agreed to provide a comprehensive and ambitious global response to the current crisis in the euro area.

This response will include the following:

- The operational implementation of new forms of intervention EFSF.
- A plan to strengthen the capital of European banks.
- The implementation of the economic governance of the euro area and the strengthening of economic integration.

For a lasting solution to the situation in Greece, the Greek authorities will have to make ambitious commitments to address the situation of their economies as part of a new program. Based on the report of the troika and the analysis of debt sustainability Greece, France and Germany call for immediately undertake negotiations with the private sector to reach an agreement for strengthening sustainability.

The President and the Chancellor will meet Saturday night in Brussels ahead of the European Council summit in the euro area on Sunday. France and Germany have agreed that all elements of this ambitious and comprehensive response will be discussed in depth at the summit on Sunday in order to be finally adopted by the Heads of State and Government at a second meeting no later than Wednesday.”

As I said to our Members in Chat (we went bullish on the news, of course) – could they possibly be more clear in their statement?  Well, apparently they should have been because the interpretation of this statement, as headlined in the WSJ, was as follows:  

Disagreement between Germany and France over virtually every point in a plan to resolve the euro-zone debt crisis forced Merkel and Sarkozy to concede that a summit of EU leaders Sunday won’t produce an agreement.

And that’s what moved the markets yesterday.  Fortunately, we have learned to ignore almost everything printed in the Wall Street Journal or any other Murdoch-owned publication and, of course, it goes without saying that if any news is being broadcast on Fox, there’s probably another side to the story that is true.   

Still, the Wall Street Journal manages to have not squandered all of the…
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Tempting Tuesday – Murdochs Testify to Parliament

NWS is down 20% of late.

Today we hear from the Murdoch family, owners of the venerated Wall Street Journal as well as Dow Jones, Inc., who will be explaining how their company allegedly broke the rules, lied, threatened and/or bribed almost everyone, engaged in cover-ups, slandered anyone who got in their way and callously ruined the lives of innocent people – all in the name of profits.  Already Sean Hoare, the reporter who blew the whistle on Murdoch has been found dead inside his London apartment.  "The death is currently being treated as unexplained, but not thought to be suspicious. Police investigations into this incident are ongoing," said a police statement.

Would that be the same British Police Department that’s had two high-level resignations over accepting bribes from Murdoch’s organization?  The Daily Mirror newspaper quoted an unnamed friend as saying Hoare "thought that someone was going to come and get him, but I didn’t know whether to believe half the stuff he was saying."  In other words, Hoare was poor and intimidated by NWS (he was refusing to testify against them) while the Murdochs are rich so every possible benefit of the doubt is being given to them just like Rebecca Nalepa was found with her hands and feet bound with a rope around he neck hung off a balcony in a San Diego mansion and the police there are thinking "suicide."

As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said: "The rich are different than you and me – they have more money."  As Bill Domhoff pointed out this weekend, when we talk about the rich, we don’t mean the top 1% – people who "only" make $1.6M a year or more.  Sure those of us in that group may have a "get out of jail free" card for when we speed and we may get our buildings approved quicker than most and we may get a local ordinance passed here or there but, when you move up to the top 0.1% ($36M or higher per year income) or the top 0.01% ($450M or higher annual income), where Mr. Murdoch lives – not only do you get both national and international laws rewritten to suit your needs (like taking over 100% of the UKs satellite broadcasts), but the other laws don’t even apply to you.

This lack of accountability leads to increasing bad behavior, as evidenced by our…
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Tinsel Tuesday – Market Decorations Make Us Merry

I figured out how to get bullish!

Just read the Wall Street Journal.  On the front page we have "Nuclear Pact Adds Backers" above the fold along with a fluff piece on the weather in Europe.  There are 3 other featured articles on the front page of the World's most widely-read financial paper and one is a fluff piece on the Jimmy Stewart museum, one is on the obscure concept of betting people are going to die (very fun and interesting but "The World's biggest financial paper"?) and the last is on the SEC looking into Mark Hurd's exit from HP.  On the left is "What's News" with about 30 summaries of articles in the paper so one would think you could look this over and have a really good idea of what's going on in the World.

I see that "Spain said its regional governments are on track to meet their budget targets" and Dow component Boeing (who fell off yesterday) announced a "$1 Billion commercial satellite deal with the Mexican Government" and Blackstone is starting a $15Bn fund and TD is buying Chrysler Financial for $6.3Bn and (and this is a real XMas gift to Wall Street) "A Senate deal to fund the federal government until early March doesn't include money to enact the health-care overhaul or stepped up regulation of Wall Street" and also that North Korea held their fire during a South Korean artillery drill.  Wow!  All seems right with the World, doesn't it?

If I just read the WSJ, I find no reason to be bearish at all.  Certainly there is no mention of Spanish Bond Yields rising 37% in a month to 5.5% at today's $4Bn bond auction.  There is no mention of China's Vice Chairman of National Development saying that China "needs to prepare for a long- term fight against inflation" or that oil imports into China are expected to fall off next year as their economy cools down.  You would think the fact that BAC, JPM and four other lenders facing a suspension of foreclosure activity under court order in New Jersey would be a news story or perhaps some mention of the 29-year high in sugar prices would be of interest to investors along with the limit-up trading in cotton to record
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Thank GDP It’s Friday – Finally Some Facts

Is bad news going to be good news?

Last quarter, after several adjustments, it has been decided that our GDP grew at a 1.7% rate.  The general consensus is that this quarter we should be up around 2% but the whisper number is a big miss, down to 1.3%.  Slower GDP growth will be GOOD for the stock market as it gives Ben and Tim the excuse they need to crank up the printing presses for some real Zimbabwe-style inflation.

It’s easy to pay off $15Tn in fixed rate 2-year to 30-year notes when your country is cranking out $1Tn bank notes, right?  Can this really be the path our nation is following?  The markets are certainly betting on it but we have been betting against it with longs on UUP at $22.50 (still there) and a short play on the QID weekly $13 calls at .46 yesterday along with other bearish trade ideas we’ve entered ahead of the GDP as well as the elections and next week’s Fed meeting.  

Why can’t we just give up and go with the flow?  Well, first of all, you can read my last few weeks of posts or you can read our last few Newsletters so I won’t rehash the great global macros here but I will make the point that (and this may shock you) we are not alone in the World and the things we do, or try to do in our economy, affect the economies of other nations.  Perhaps when the US was 40% of Global GDP, we could have gotten away with it but now we are 20% and falling fast yet we still attempt to run our foreign and economic policies as if we are large and in charge.  

This is not the way the rest of the World sees us anymore.  To the rest of the World we are unrealistic children with dangerous spending habits who happen to owe them A LOT of money.  We borrowed $15Tn and our "plan" is to pay them back with hyperinflated dollars that are already discounted 33% from where we began cranking up the borrowing in 2002 (to pay for wars and tax cuts).  

Already, other nations are refusing to lend us more money so we have begun to engage in what Bill Gross, the world’s biggest bond
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Troubling Tuesday – Bears and Bears and Bears, Oh My!

 

 

"I will not fear
Fear is the mind killer,
Fear is the little death
That brings total Oblivion
I will permit my fear to pass
Over me and through me
And where it has gone
I will turn the inner eye
Nothing will be there
Only I will remain."

 

That is the Bene Gesserit incantation for bravery from Frank Herbert’s "Dune," one of my favorite books.  When the markets turn nasty on us it is time to get analytical, not emotional and we need to let our fear pass over us as we step back and evaluate the situation with fresh eyes, and a calm mind

Above is a chart of our major indexes and their year-to-date performance.  As we tested our -5% lines last week, we added a fresh round of Disaster Hedges, a series of trade ideas that can make 500% or more if the market falls further and in an afternoon Alert to Members yesterday, we added another SDS hedge with a 400% upside.  Having some high-reward hedges in your virtual portfolio allows you to set aside just 2% to protect your entire virtual portfolio against a 10% drop in the markets.  10% is A LOT for the markets to fall and, of course, now that they have brakes on the market, we can always add more hedges along the way down.  Should the market fall "just" 5%, we STILL make 10% on our hedges and that nets our virtual portfolio (in this example) UP 5% on a 5% drop in the market.  If our bullish plays were also hedged with covers – then so much the better! 

Most importantly, having a balanced virtual portfolio with hedges allows you to play the market WITHOUT FEAR.  Warren Buffett famously advises investors to "Be greedy when others are fearful" and our own PSW Rule #1 is "Always sell into the initial excitement," which doesn’t mean always buy but we look for opportunities to sell fear (naked puts) on a dip, the same way we sell our own positions into spikes up that we consider overdone. 

In last week’s "Disaster" article, I wondered if we were in the panic/capitulation part of the above chart and,
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How to Have a Happy and Safe New Year with Hedges

"Now is the accepted time to make your regular annual good resolutions.  Next week you can begin paving Hell with them as usual."  ~ Mark Twain
 

"We will open the book. Its pages are blank. We are going to put words on them ourselves. The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year's Day.” ~ Edith Lovejoy Pierce

I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all of my readers a very happy New Year.  2009 was challenging to say the least – clearly it was the best of times and it was the worst of times but if 2009 has taught us anything it's that there is always an opportunity for the perseverent.  We went from the depths of despair in March straight into a 9-month rally of epic proportions.  While we may question the wisdom of the underlying fundamentals, we cannot question the evidence of just how resilient our economy and our people really are and that, if nothing else, gives me great hope for our future.

I myself have gone from being the lone market optimist back in March (see our Crisis, Year One Review) to being one of the 11% of the remaining pessimists as the market takes back over 50% of it's losses (I am arguing that it's less than 50% in my Last Charts of the Decade).  Whether we are, as I think, at the apex of a very normal Fibonacci retracement or whether we are at the mid stage of a full recovery back to our 2007 glory remains to be seen but for now, I can re-use the same statement I made to Members when I argued the media was too bearish in March (click on image for great video):

"Television is a powerful and emotional medium, it is very difficult to go against the will of ALL these "experts" when they get on TV and all tell you to sell (or buy) and then their TV station backs them up with bearish news and bearish guests – it’s a natural bias that develops, they aren’t going to make their own paid personalities look foolish by contradicting them with facts and dissenting opinions." 

Substitute bullish for bearish and we have my quote of the day for December 31st, 2009.  If you do…
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ValueWalk

Unlocking Value At General Motors: David Einhorrn

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Greenlight Capital’s long thesis for General Motors.

Also see

Greenlight Capital 2016 Letter: The Case For Caterpillar . 2016 Hedge Fund Letters Introduction
  • Greenlight Capital is a value-oriented, research-driven investment management firm
    • Greenlight is a long-term holder of GM stock
    • We believe in GM’s prospects and the opportunity for long-term value creation
  • GM’s stock is not fairly valued today
    • Despite fundamentally strong operations, the stock trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value
    • The current P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple (5.6x)...


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Zero Hedge

David Einhorn's Presentation How GM Can Unlock Between $13 And $38 Billion In Value

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Moments ago, General Motors holder Greenlight Capital released a presentation in which David Einhorn recommended that GM should distribute, on a tax-free basis, a second class of common stock that the holder calls “Dividend Shares.”

Greenlight wants GM to split its common stock into two classes: one that pays dividends and a second that would entitle its holders to all earnings, including stock buybacks, after the dividend is paid, according to people familiar with the matter. Greenlight believes the move could attract new investors who are willin...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Biggest Risk From the Dollar's Drop May Not Be What You Would Guess (Bloomberg)

Whipsawed by the greenback and confronted by U.S. policy confusion, carry trades were supposed to be a rare bright spot for investors who want to stay away from the world’s biggest reserve currency.

These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on the Trump Trade (Bloomberg)

Investors on Monday further unwound trades initiated in November resting on the idea that the election of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress mean...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



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Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.


Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLT over the past 9-months.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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