Posts Tagged ‘Obama’

Stock World Weekly: Deadlocked

Here’s the latest Stock World Weekly. Click on this link to read the full SWW: "Deadlocked" and sign in with your PSW user name and password.  (Or sign up for a FREE trial to Stock World Weekly.) 

 Excerpts reviewing the week and looking ahead

U.S. Debt Ceiling Deadlock

One line of reasoning from the “no tax hikes” crowd is the inaccurate premise that the very wealthy, the top 0.1%, are job creators. If they’re the “job creators,” it might be in the public interest to protect them from excessive taxation – thereby allowing these top 0.1% to spend money on creating jobs. This is incorrect. The overwhelming majority of U.S. jobs are ‘created’ by ordinary Americans when they spend their paychecks. Consumer spending drives about 70% of our GDP. When average Americans are struggling with high unemployment, which recently popped back up to 9.2%, they are reluctant to spend money on anything beyond basic necessities. The broader U6 unemployment number – which includes the underemployed and “discouraged workers” – is 16.2%.

Meanwhile, U.S. companies are not stepping up hiring due to weakness in the economy – there is no demand. As Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics wrote, “Businesses aren’t confident enough, and the longer this goes on, the harder it is to convince them that they should be.”  (Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring)

Let Them Eat Cake 

Russ Winter of Winter Watch at the Wall Street Examiner discussed the gap between what people think corporations pay in taxes, versus what they really spend. For example, Microsoft “lowers its effective tax rate a full 7% by taking foreign income to $19.2 billion from $15.4 billion, and lowering US income (and expenses) from $9.6 billion to $8.9 billion. Today MSFT is effectively a 68% foreign operation. In return it gets all the benefits of stimulus and minimizes the costs of supporting the US system…

Mark Kreiger writes a spot on piece regarding the high end luxury bubble that includes this gem - ‘The social crisis facing the country as a result of the most egregious plundering in modern American history will spell the end of the ‘high end’ theme. Buying into this trend now is like getting long Marie Antoinette’s unsevered


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The Show Must Go On

Courtesy of Jim Quinn, The Burning Platform

The Debt Ceiling Reality Show is winding down to its dramatic conclusion on August 2. I think Fox should capitalize on the drama by gathering the American Idol judges to vote on the best performance by a political hack. We can have Ryan Seacrest announce on August 1 at 11:55 pm that the winner is – THE WALL STREET MONIED INTERESTS.

  

The latest round of kabuki theatre performed by the corrupt lying thieves in Washington DC is being played out every night on the MSM. The volume of misinformation, lies, exaggerations, posturing, and propaganda is staggering. These vile excuses for leaders know that 80% of the American population wouldn’t know the difference between a debt ceiling and a drop ceiling. They use this ignorance to their advantage, as Obama warns that old people won’t get their social security checks and government drones won’t be paid. 

According to Gallup, Republicans and Independents don’t want the debt ceiling raised. The poll also indicates that at least one third of Americans don’t care. They are too outraged by the Casey Anthony verdict to focus on the economic future of our country.

Debt Ceiling Poll

I’ll let you in on a secret. The debt ceiling will be raised. Sorry to ruin the surprise, but this entire sordid episode has nothing to do with our dire economic situation. It is solely about the 2012 elections. Both parties are conducting overnight polling on which talking points are working best in convincing the sheeple that their party is less likely to be blamed. Posturing and polling are what passes for leadership in America. It is a disgusting display and will contribute to the ultimate collapse that is headed our way like a Japanese Bullet Train.

Here is a summary of where we stand according to the MSM and the political class in Washington DC:

  • The supposedly grand compromise that would have “cut” $4 trillion from future deficits fell apart last week. The Democarats wouldn’t “cut” entitlements and the Republicans wouldn’t “raise” taxes.
  • The latest proposal was down to $2 trillion of future “cuts”, but neither side would agree to what and when.
  • Now in the ultimate Washington kick the can move, Mitch “Turtle Face” McConnell has proposed that Obama increase the debt limit in three stages, while requiring him to propose offsetting spending cuts, offering a potential path out of the


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EXTEND & PRETEND IS WALL STREET’S FRIEND

Courtesy of Jim Quinn, The Burning Platform

“We now have an economy in which five banks control over 50 percent of the entire banking industry, four or five corporations own most of the mainstream media, and the top one percent of families hold a greater share of the nation’s wealth than any time since 1930.   This sort of concentration of wealth and power is a classic setup for the failure of a democratic republic and the stifling of organic economic growth.” - Jesse –http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Source: Barry Ritholtz

“All of the old-timers knew that subprime mortgages were what we called neutron loans — they killed the people and left the houses.” - Louis S. Barnes, 58, a partner at Boulder West, a mortgage banking firm in Lafayette, Colo


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Michele Bachmann Says F^%* History

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

Embarrassing.

Listen, we know no one pays attention in school. We know history is ignored by everyone except history buffs who are into that whole thing (JDA is guilty of skipping history class in high school, by that point TLP was likely working on his 3rd history PhD) and we know that we can, as a society assaulted with a constant stream of tweets, status updates and 24 hour news, barely remember what happened last week let alone in the last few centuries. Surely Bachmann isn’t the only one to make a mistake like this but really, Michele? Really?

Her entire team needs to be fired for sending her out there looking like that.

Then again, in her defense, if you ask an American elementary school kid about Abraham Lincoln’s position on slavery, you might be told that he fought bravely to free the slaves. The Great Emancipator, the textbooks call him.

That’s what I was taught, you too?

The truth, however, is that Lincoln, like Bachmann, was a politician just doing what he had to do. The Emancipation Proclamation was a political move, you’re a sucker if you believe anything else. Worse? Honest Abe offered good government money to pay off slave-owners to get their slaves out of town as part of his 1860 presidential campaign:

In 1860, the 3,185 slaves in the District of Columbia were owned by just two percent of the District’s residents. In April 1862, Lincoln arranged to have a bill introduced in Congress that would compensate District slave-holders an average of $300 for each slave. An additional $100,000 was appropriated 

to be expended under the direction of the President of the United States, to aid in the colonization and settlement of such free persons of African descent now residing in said District, including those to be liberated by this act, as may desire to emigrate to the Republic of Haiti or Liberia, or such other country beyond the limits of the United States as the President may determine.

When he signed the bill into law on April 16, Lincoln stated: "I am gratified that the two principles of compensation, and colonization, are both recognized, and practically applied in the act."

And there’s this quote, which you should know if you are not a high schooler skipping history class: "My paramount object in this…
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One Reaction to the Obama State of the Union Address That Made Sense

Courtesy of Jesse’s Americain Cafe

It amazes me that the discussion on change centers on ‘improving competitiveness’ when the crisis was caused by a massive financial fraud and political and regulatory failure that goes largely unresolved and unrepaired, sucking the life out of the real economy and spreading corruption of thought and action. Slogans and code words are the substance of the public policy discussion in the US and Europe, and I think with the intent to deceive, a propaganda campaign. The mainstream media in the States is owned by a handful of powerful corporations. But fewer and fewer turn to the mainstream media anymore.

"In addition, any economist will tell you that when the free market fails a black market emerges. The blogs are the black market of information." 

David B. Collum, Cornell University

As for competitiveness, the current global trade regime is underpinned with and founded on a fraud, a set of managed currencies pinned to the US dollar and under the control of a banking cartel. There is no real free trade, only an illusion of such, promoted by the rapacity of multinational corporations and their partners in authoritarian governments.

The only real competition I can see is the race to destroy the middle class and reduce the public around the world to the least common denominator of slavery, serfdom, and servitude, with the dollar and the jackboot as their weapons.

From Mark Thoma:

"Eliminating regulation: The idea is that removing unnecessary regulation will improve our ability to innovate, and this will help the economy create new, good jobs. However, it wasn’t lack of innovation or lack of competitiveness that got us into this mess, it was an out of control financial sector. 

The President talked about eliminating unnecessary regulation, but far too little was said about the need to implement new regulations where they are needed. In addition, by focusing so much on helping business, the president risks sending the message that what is good for business is necessarily good for the nation. (Risk? As the risk of sounding snarky, that is the reason for the season. It was the corporate FIRE sector that caused the financial crisis in the first place. – Jesse)

Businesses need the right environment to thrive, but we must not lose sight of the fact that it’s the skills of the people that work at businesses that matters most. Our ultimate goal is the best possible life for


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Stock World Weekly

Here’s the newest: Stock World Weekly Newsletter. Comments welcome! – Ilene 

Jobs Cartoon

Archives here. 


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One Investment Strategy for Q1 2011: Cash, Baby, All the Way

Charles Hugh Smith agrees with us on the wisdom of cash: One Investment Strategy for Q1 2011: Cash, Baby, All the Way  - Ilene 

Piggy bank with crumpled dollar bills

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith

In response to readers’ requests, I disclose my own amateur’s Investment Strategy for Q1 2011: cash is king, and the U.S. dollar looks good simply because almost everyone expects it to collapse. 

Despite my oft-avowed amateur-market-observer status, readers often ask me for advice or opinions on where to put their capital. This is not advice (please read the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below), it is a disclosure of my own personal opinion, what we might call "one investment strategy of many possible investment strategies" for the first quarter of 2011: cash, baby, cash all the way.

Why am I in cash? Because I don’t trust the parallel rallies, and I am extremely skeptical of the various "stories" which are driving the rallies. Why am I skeptical? Because everybody and their sister has bought into the stories, and a one-sided trade is rarely the winning one.

Yes, it’s my contrarian nature: when everyone is a believer in a "story" that is too good to be true, then I become skeptical. This often gets me in trouble. When everyone was buying GM at $50, I was shorting it. When everyone was buying Fannie Mae at $60, I was shorting it (via puts). Both GM and FNM were obviously, painfully insolvent, but it took practically forever for reality to intrude on the fantasy/narrative that each firm was a "solid blue chip" investment with numerous analyst recommendations. In the meantime, I lost money treading water for quarter after quarter.

So even though the market is clearly top-heavy, the short-side trade may yet be ground down by the Fed’s prop-job and the Wall Street/Central State partnership’s desperate desire to use a rising stock market as a propaganda proxy for the "recovery."

(Hey, just borrow and squander roughly 13% of GDP, year after year after year (roughly 45% of the entire Federal budget), and you might stimulate a modest "recovery," too.)

So let’s examine each of the "stories" driving the rallies.

1. The global recovery is solid, and Central State stimulus and quantitative easing will keep growth rising and interest rates low. This narrative drives capital into "risk assets," i.e. stock markets, commodities, FX carry trades, Chinese real estate, junk bonds, etc.

I’m not really sure…
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Post Mortem for the World’s Reserve Currency

This is a thoughtful analysis by Mike Whitney showing what a financial mess we’re in – the proverbial rock and a hard place scenario. – Ilene 

Post Mortem for the World’s Reserve Currency

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY, originally published at CounterPunch and Global Research

money printingPaul Volcker is worried about the future of the dollar and for good reason. The Fed has initiated a program (Quantitative Easing) that presages an end to Bretton Woods 2 and replaces it with different system altogether. Naturally, that’s made trading partners pretty nervous. Despite the unfairness of the present system--where export-dependent countries recycle capital to US markets to sustain demand—most nations would rather stick with the "devil they know", then venture into the unknown.  But US allies weren’t consulted on the matter.  The Fed unilaterally decided that the only way to fight deflation and high unemployment in the US, was by weakening the dollar and making US exports more competitive. Hence QE2.

But that means that the US will be battling for the same export market as everyone else, which will inevitably shrink global demand for goods and services.  This is a major change in the Fed’s policy and there’s a good chance it will backfire. Here’s the deal: If US markets no longer provide sufficient demand for foreign exports, then there will be less incentive to trade in dollars. Thus, QE poses a real threat to the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency.   

Here’s what Volcker said:  “The growing sense around much of the world is that we have lost both relative economic strength and more important, we have lost a coherent successful governing model to be emulated by the rest of the world. Instead, we’re faced with broken financial markets, underperformance of our economy and a fractious political climate…..The  question is whether the exceptional role of the dollar can be maintained." 

This is a good summary of the problems facing the dollar. Notice that Volcker did not invoke the doomsday scenario that one hears so often on the Internet, that China, which has more than $1 trillion in US Treasuries and dollar-backed assets, will one day pull the plug on the USA and send the dollar plunging.  While that’s technically possible, it’s not going to happen. China has no intention of crashing the dollar and thrusting its own economy into a long-term slump.  In fact, China has…
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Jim Chanos: “Adam Smith will get his Revenge on China’s Real Estate Bubble”

Courtesy of Mish

China bulls may wish to consider the other side of the story as noted by Chanos in China Overbuilding to ‘Hit a Wall’

“Construction is 60-plus percent of GDP, compared to exports of 5,” said Chanos, who is the founder and president of Kynikos Associates.

“The problem is that consumption as a percentage of Chinese economy has declined in the last 10 years, from 40 to 35 percent. It’s all real estate,” he said. After the US, China has the world’s second largest economy.

Chanos said that steel, iron ore, cement and other materials needed for construction will be "under pressure."


Video Notes

China is building US-priced condos where the average income is $3500 per person.

Margins on Chinese companies are razor thin. If China hikes rates substantially most companies in China will lose money. Chanos thinks they already are. "Every company we have looked at has accounting issues. The lower you get in the story the more interesting it becomes."

If China implodes, Chanos thinks the US will fare relatively well on the basis "Europe exports more to China than the US, and that South America is dependent on China as are parts of Asia."

When asked about the sustainability of what China is doing, Chanos commented that a lot of what the state is doing is "misdirected investment" in order to keep nominal growth. At the end of the day, that will come back to haunt them.

Chanos mentioned Adam Smith a couple of times in the interview. Adam Smith is author of The Wealth of Nations.

"Adam Smith will get his revenge in China’s real estate market. It is very difficult to manage these kinds of bubbles."

I happen to agree with Chanos on all counts, adding that an implosion in China, or even a significant slowdown would be beneficial to the US dollar. For additional discussion of the US dollar please see Williams Calls for "Great Hyperinflationary Great Depression"; A Very Easy Rebuttal

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Originally published at Mish’s Global Economic Trend AnalysisJim Chanos: "Adam Smith will get his Revenge on China’s Real Estate Bubble"


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Just Another Manic Monday – Stagflation Official in China

Wheeee, everything must be great! 

We are crushing our levels as the market flies ever higher.  Our 11,500 target on the Dow looks sure to be tested and we're already flipping bullish with our "Breakout Defense" trades, in which our goal is to make 5,000% in 5 trades or less.  We are not ashamed to jump on the bullish bandwagon – if they are giving away money, we'll stand in line with everyone else, only we'll take a larger share – thank you very much.  We certainly know how to use leverage just like a Bankster – we have a spread and we're not afraid to use it!  

Speaking of Banksters, the must-read article of the weekend is the NY Times piece that goes into surprising details of secret bank meetings that are regularly held in NY where the Gang of 12 (just 9 of them) do their best to manipulate the derivatives market, influence regulations and regulators and, of course, crush their competition.  The article even goes so far as to name my old friends at ICE as possibly maybe having something to do with these shenanigans and I am SHOCKED at these allegations as the good people at ICE were so good about telling me how I had things all wrong when I made similar statements last year (which I now legally know cannot be proven and therefore must not be true).  

And thank goodness that the commodity and derivatives clearinghouse that was founded by Big Banks and is controlled by Big Banks cannot be proven to be operating in favor of Big Banks because we wouldn't want to think that the Big Banks had some preferential treatment (beyond the access to the discount window and the TARP money and the POMO money, etc.) – that would just be unAmerican.  By unAmerican, I mean the old America that they write about in the Declaration of Independence and the original Constitution, of course – not the Corporate Kleptocracy this country has developed into.  Under the new guidelines, leveraging your influence and having the government rob the people to increase your profits on which you don't pay taxes is the very definition of patriotism, isn't it?  

VIXAh well…  As I said last…
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Zero Hedge

Bernie Sanders: The World Is Rejecting Globalization

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Bernie Sanders, originally posted Op-Ed via The NY Times,

Surprise, surprise. Workers in Britain, many of whom have seen a decline in their standard of living while the very rich in their country have become much richer, have turned their backs on the European Union and a globalized economy that is failing them and their children.

And it’s not just the British who are suffering. That increasingly global...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Post-Brexit Bounce

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global post-Brexit selloff reversed itself today. Most Asia-Pacific indexes were modestly higher, and major European indexes saw major bounces. The FTSE rose 2.64%, the CAC 2.61% and the DAX 1.93%. The rally spilled over to US equities. Our benchmark S&P 500 opened at its 0.31% intraday low and spent much of the day in a narrow range just north of +1%. A second wave of buying in the final 90 minutes lifted the index to its close spot on its intraday 1.78% high. Can the rally continue? Stay tuned!

Treasuries, however, showed now reversal. The 10-year note closed at 1.46%, unchanged from the previous session. That's a mere 3 BPs above its all-time closing low of 1.43%.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

...

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Phil's Favorites

"No Cherry Picking" Says Merkel; Risk of Global Trade Collapse says Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel now sounds like socialist nannycrat Francois Hollande when it comes to punishing the UK.

The Financial Times reports Angela Merkel Takes Tough Stance on Brexit Negotiations.

In a speech to the Bundestag on Tuesday morning, Ms Merkel spelt out to London that the EU’s internal freedoms were indivisible — if Britain, like Norway, wanted access to the internal market then, like Norway, it would have to accept freedom of movement.

“We will ensure that the negotiations will not be run on the principle of cherry-picking,” the chancellor said, drawing applause. “We must and will make a palpabl...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

There's about to be huge upheaval in the financial world (Business Insider)

The UK has voted to leave the EU, and there is much still to be resolved.

Draghi Seen as Cure for Brexit Blues in Corporate-Bond Market (Bloomberg)

Investors are speculating that Brexit instability will cause theEuropean Central Bank to speed up corporate-bond purchases that began three weeks ago.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

London closer to breakout, than breakdown- Really???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

While the media is focused on the noise around Brexit, yesterday the Power of the Pattern shared that Germany (DAX) and London (FTSE) remained above 6-year rising support. See post HERE.

Below takes a closer look at the FTSE index in London, the so called center of the news noise.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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ValueWalk

Bill Gross on 'What'd You Miss'

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss'”>Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss’

Streamed live 5 hours ago
Today on ‘What’d You Miss,’ co-hosts Scarlet Fu & Alix Steel bring you live coverage of the market close and talk to Standard & Poor’s Chief Global Economist Paul Sheard about the G7 meeting. We’ll also bring you Erik Schatzker’s interview with Bill Gross, live from FI16 in Los Angeles (http://la.bbgfi16.com/). We’ll hear from the bond king on central bank policy and his outlook for global growth.

‘What’d You Miss’ with Alix Steel, Scarlet Fu, and Joe Weisenthal airs every weekday on Bloomberg TV from 4 – 5 pm ET:

The post ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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