Posts Tagged ‘outliers’

Six Autumn Outliers

Six Autumn Outliers

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

So that there’s no confusion, these aren’t predictions or forecasts, they are Outliers.  I define an outlier as an event that is unlikely but possible.  I’m not betting the farm on this stuff, but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair if any of it happened between now and the end of the year.

Enough hedging, let’s go:

1. Silver Explodes:  Gold’s flashier little brother has had a decent go of it of late.  Silver prices just broke above the $19.50-ish level for only the third time since November 2009, and you know what they say about "the third time".  The big boys are usually buying gold right around now to get ahead of holiday demand and the wedding season in India, meanwhile the yellow metal is within melting distance of its high.  If the Slingshot Effect that silver prices experience during gold rallies takes hold, look out above.  My outlier here is that silver becomes the must-have investment of the season.

2. GOP Takes the House:  It is conventional wisdom that Republicans are going to gain some ground at the mid-term elections this November, but I’m going to go a step further and say that the Dems will lose more than 40 seats and along with them, control of the House.  Larry Sabato, a political scientist from the U of Virginia, has been quoted as saying that they could also lose as many as 8 or 9 senate seats as well.  This ain’t your Daddy’s Midterms, or maybe it is – there are shades of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America tour-de-force against Bill Clinton halfway through his 1st term back in ’94.  Peeps is pissed right now.

3.  Google Buys Twitter:  This would be a real outlier if only it didn’t make so much damn sense.  What in the hell are they waiting for in Mountain View, CA?  They tried to build their own Twittery-thing (Google Buzz, anyone?), it wasn’t terrible but people don’t need two microblogging platforms even if Google’s did have the advantage of being bundled with Gmail.  This is a doable deal for Google financially and as incredible a phenomenon as Twitter is, it’s still not a business yet – just a phenomenon.  The Googster ($GOOG) could monetize it on Day 4.

4.  Ballmer is Audi 5000:  He’ll…
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ValueWalk

The Graham & Dodd P/E Matrix

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Graham & Dodd P/E Matrix by Redfield, Blonsky & Co.

Based on his observations of stock over the years, Benjamin Graham developed a stock valuation model that allows for future growth. Graham observed that the average no-growth stock sold at 8.5 times earnings, and that price-earnings ratios increased by twice the rate of earnings growth. This led to the earnings multiplier:

P/E = 8.5 + 2G

where G is the rate of earnings growth, stated as a percentage.

The original formulation was made at a time when there was very little inflation, and growth could be assumed to be real growth; the AA...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Travel indicator being put to critical tests

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.

The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).

CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE

While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...



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Zero Hedge

THE Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Secular Investor.

We wrote on July 5th that markets are increasingly looking scary. Now, only 3 weeks later, the situation seems to be escalating.

Let's get it straight: this is a serious deflationary bust in the making. The most worrisome fact is Dr. Copper's technical breakdown, as seen on the first chart.

Source: StockCharts.com

The price of copper, being a leading indicator for the health of the global economy, has broken through a multi-decade trend channel. This is really bad news for th...



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Phil's Favorites

Information overload is making us dumber investors

"Information overload" may be especially problematic when we don't have a plan or don't stick with our plan. For example, we may have a long term goal for a stock, but then short term information gets presented, and we act on it, abandoning our original thesis. This can lead to over-trading, chasing the news, and ultimately, regrets. 

Information overload is making us dumber investors

BY JEFF REEVES'S STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

Excerpt:

We live in an age of seemingly infinite information, and that’s great in many ways. But that doesn’t make investors any smarter.

Stock rese...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

2015 has simply not been a fun year in the stock market (Business Insider)

2015 has not been a fun year for stock investors. 

In 2015, the S&P 500, which opened the year nearly at all-time highs, has made a new all-time high just 10 times. For a point of comparison, at this time last time at this year, the benchmark index had hit 27 fresh all-time records, and when 2014 was said and done, the S&P 500 had hit a new record 53 times. 

The bull in China’s shop has no more room to run (Market Watch) ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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Chart School

Fifth Day of Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Sellers in the S&P made it five days of downside in a row. On this last day it closed near the day's lows, but also on its 200-day MA. If there was reason for a bounce, then tomorrow could be the day.  Technicals are all net negative.


The Dow took the selling harder. It undercut the July swing low having earlier lost its 200-day MA. Next up is the February swing low.


Small Caps finished at its 200-day MA, after it lost trendline support on Friday...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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