# How to Avoid Risk of Ruin in Trading

Here’s a few excerpts from an eye-opening article on the risk of ruin by Brett Steenbarger:

### How to Avoid Risk of Ruin in Trading.

Here’s a nice calculator of risk of ruin for poker players that easily adapts to trading. Risk of ruin represents the odds of losing all of your gambling (or trading) stake…

To adapt the calculator for our needs, instead of estimating win rate and and standard deviation per hour, we will make those daily estimates. So the win rate would represent average profit per day, and the standard deviation would represent a measure of the variability of daily returns.

Let’s say that your account total (bankroll) is \$100,000. You are willing to risk 2% of your money in a single day, and 2/3 of your days will fall between losing and making 1% on your capital. You have a modest positive edge that will earn you 10% on your money in a year, which would be \$40 per day on average (\$40 x 250 trading days = \$10,000).

Your risk of ruin in that situation--the risk of losing all your capital--is only .03%….

The lesson to be learned is that risk of ruin jumps astronomically when one’s edge is eroded and when one’s variability of returns expand. This is why it’s imperative for serious traders to cut their risk (reduce the variability of returns) when they sense that they’ve lost their feel for markets. It’s also why it’s imperative for serious traders to risk manage their day to day trading, so that they cap their daily P/L swings relative to the edge they possess.

And the frustrated trader who overtrades when he loses his edge? Risk of ruin, the calculator tells us, jumps to 100%.

### Phil's Favorites

#### Crash and burn: How fast cars and hedge funds go together

Crash and burn: How fast cars and hedge funds go together

Courtesy of Monash Business School, in EconomyImpact

Can your choice of car influence your appetite for investment risk? If you are a hedge fund manager, it seems it can.

?Hedge fund managers who drive Ferraris or other sports cars are likely to take greater investment risks than those who drive the humble minivan, new research from Monash Business School shows.

But the “fast and the furious” approach isn’t so good for investors, with returns from these managers showing greater volatility and disappointing results.

In the first empirical study analysing the implications of personal lifestyle choices on invest...

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### Zero Hedge

#### China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China bond yields rose ahead of the macro data avalanche tonight (following a leaked upside surprise print for GDP). GDP, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment all beat expectations but Retail Sales missed dramatically - growing at its slowest since Feb 2004.

As a reminder, these numbers are landing amid some renewed concern over the integrity of Chinese data, with a nationwide audit of city and county governments last year finding a slew inflated fiscal revenues.

The last couple of months have seen upside surprises for Chinese...

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### ValueWalk

#### How Motivation Works

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In this complimentary webinar, learn about the power of motivation in the workplace from Columbia University Professor of Psychology and Business Tory Higgins, an expert on motivation and decision-making.

]]> Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF

Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

You’ll learn:

- Why “carrots” and “sticks” incentives are not enough to motivate people to do better work
- How promotion-focused and prevention-focused people pursue goals differentl...

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### Digital Currencies

#### How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

Courtesy of

You are all in for a very special treat today. On the heels of last week’s guest post, in which the Unassuming Banker looked at crypto from a traditional IB’s view, I’ve got a new guest post from a friend of mine who is about to give you a perspective on the nascent asset class you’ve not read before.

...

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### Insider Scoop

#### 5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

• Goldman Sachs raised Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) price target from \$4.70 to \$5.40. Groupon shares closed at \$5.03 on Tuesday.
• Barclays boosted the price target for Pure Storage Inc (NYSE: PSTG) from \$19 to \$22. Pure Storage shares closed at \$16.16 on Tuesday.
• Stifel increased the price target for Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) from \$161 to \$184. Deere shares closed at \$167.54 on Tuesday.
• Mizuho raised the price target on QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

### Chart School

#### Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages \$4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...

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### Biotech

#### How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...

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### Mapping The Market

#### Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...

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### Members' Corner

#### An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...

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#### Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

### Promotions

#### NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all.

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### Kimble Charting Solutions

#### Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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### All About Trends

#### Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just \$500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...