Posts Tagged ‘overtrades’

How to Avoid Risk of Ruin in Trading

Here’s a few excerpts from an eye-opening article on the risk of ruin by Brett Steenbarger:

How to Avoid Risk of Ruin in Trading

Three businessmen playing poker outdoors and close-up

Here’s a nice calculator of risk of ruin for poker players that easily adapts to trading. Risk of ruin represents the odds of losing all of your gambling (or trading) stake…

To adapt the calculator for our needs, instead of estimating win rate and and standard deviation per hour, we will make those daily estimates. So the win rate would represent average profit per day, and the standard deviation would represent a measure of the variability of daily returns.

Let’s say that your account total (bankroll) is $100,000. You are willing to risk 2% of your money in a single day, and 2/3 of your days will fall between losing and making 1% on your capital. You have a modest positive edge that will earn you 10% on your money in a year, which would be $40 per day on average ($40 x 250 trading days = $10,000).

Your risk of ruin in that situation--the risk of losing all your capital--is only .03%….

The lesson to be learned is that risk of ruin jumps astronomically when one’s edge is eroded and when one’s variability of returns expand. This is why it’s imperative for serious traders to cut their risk (reduce the variability of returns) when they sense that they’ve lost their feel for markets. It’s also why it’s imperative for serious traders to risk manage their day to day trading, so that they cap their daily P/L swings relative to the edge they possess.

And the frustrated trader who overtrades when he loses his edge? Risk of ruin, the calculator tells us, jumps to 100%.

Full article here.>>

 


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Treasury Introduces New Rules To Stop Tax Evasion, Kind Of

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In the wake of the Panama Papers being released, the U.S.Treasury announced that it will use existing powers in order to make two rule changes that are intended to stop tax evasion.

First, in a rule which amends the US Bank Secrecy Act, the Treasury said it will require financial institutions to verify the identity of the real people, or "beneficial owners", who control companies opening account...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Sohn Conference Finalists Long AMERCO; Greenhaven Long EXOR

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

AMERCO – Sohn Conference Finalist Long AMERCO—An Undervalued $7Billion Company Hidden in Plain Sight Long Investment Idea Price Target: $502/share

Alexandra Esparza

MBA Candidate at the Yale School of Management

May 4, 2016

Also Greenhaven has a great presentation on Exor its mostly images so we did not do a post you can find the PDF here ->  Esparza_AMERCO

SEE THE FULL CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS HERE-> LINK

……………

Value Creation, but Under the Radar

• Virtually uncovered by the Street – only one sell-side an...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Mediocre Jobs Report? No Big Deal

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

All eyes were on this morning's employment report for April, which largely disappointed expectations. The equity market was little fazed by the light growth in nonfarm new jobs. The S&P 500 bounced off its rather unremarkable -0.55% intraday low about 90 minutes into the session. It slowly rallied to its 0.35% intraday high as the final hour approached and ended the session just a tad lower with a 0.32% closing gain.

About that jobs report ... is "mediocre" an apt description? Consider: The number of new jobs came in at 160K, well below the mainstream expectation of about 200K. On the other hand, since January 2011, nonfarm payrolls have increased by an average of 0.15% monthly with a high-low range of 0.26% to 0.03%. The April increase was 0....



more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Weekend Reading: Should I Stay Or Should I Go

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice.com

It has been interesting as of late reading the numerous views espousing the value of “indexing” and lamenting the short-term underperformance of some fund manager. What is more interesting is a large majority of these individuals have only been involved in the markets post-financial crisis. In other words, many of these individuals have never lived through a 2000 or 2008 type financial market event.

It is only during these periods where true investment “metal” is tested as the battlefield becomes a vast wasteland of bodies and failed ideas. Despite strategies that promote the value of long-term investing and the benefits of indexing, it is the realization of “loss” that derails even the most well-intentioned of individuals.

...



more from Ilene

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil testing resistance, fear index testing support, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Once Crude Oil started turning weak in 2014/2015, many stock markets around the world have struggled to move much higher.

Crude Oil hit support in February of this year and has rallied almost 50% off the lows and stocks have followed to the upside.

Joe Friday Just The Facts;  What Crude Oil does at resistance above, could have a large impact on stocks going forward, as Crude is testing resistance and its fear index is testing support.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Patch Bankruptcies Hit $34.3 Billion (Value Walk)

The number of oil patch bankruptcies continues to rise, and the number of companies filing for creditor protection is accelerating, that’s according to according to law firm Haynes and Boone LP’s May Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor.

Oil Price Drop Vanquishes Cutting-Edge Projects (Wall Street Journal)

The wo...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

"I Can Only Say I'm Sorry" - Self-Professed Bitcoin "Creator" Can't Provide Proof, Backs Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two years after Newsweek wrote an inaugural article upon returning to print in which it "unmasked" bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and which turned out be a hoax (the author "found" Nakamoto using a white pages search), earlier this week the world was fixated on the story of another self-professed bitcoin "creator", this time Australian entrepreneuer Craig Wright, who &quo...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Cantor Says Relypsa's Veltassa Metrics Look Favorable

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ: RLYP) shares have plummeted 51 percent year-to-date, under pressure from debt-financing related concerns. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Mara Goldstein reiterated a Buy rating for the company, while reducing the price target from $42 to $41. The analyst believes the 1Q16 results would be “a stabilizing force for the shares.”

Positive Data Points For Veltassa Launch

Veltassa metrics look favorable so far, including a low payer rejecti...



more from Biotech

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>