Posts Tagged ‘Portfolio’

DHH Options Time

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking (2) & Options Time Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World 

My heater’s broke and I’m so tired 
I need some fuel to build a fire (actually need something that cools heat down)
The girl next door (Tokyo), her lights are out, yeah
The landlord’s gone, I’m down and out
It’s cold gin (option) time again
You know it’ll always win – KISS

The tragic developments in Japan took center stage this past week and our hearts go out to everyone in Japan, and everyone who is touched by this catastrophic event.    

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami, the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Hedge virtual portfolio was positioned with a 70% Long / 30% Short tilt. We are now considering moving to a 50% / 50% balance. We will most likely do that, assuming no material change in the world events, by adding to our short positions next week.  In the meantime, we have two option positions which are expiring today and we wanted to add to the review we began last week.  (Click here for our first four long positions reviewed a week ago.)  

Options Expiration:

Radware Ltd (RDWR): On November 11, 2010 we added Radware (RDWR) to the virtual portfolio using Phil’s Buy/Write strategy.  At that time RDWR was trading at $33.39 and we added half the shares we wanted (100) and sold the March $35 2011 call and March $35 2011 put to complete the buy/write. On December 7, 2010 when the stock traded up to $40, we rolled the call out to the Jan $35 2012 call, which we sold for $9. We kept the March $35 2011 put we had already sold for $5.10.  The put (as 65-70% of options do) will expire worthless today yielding a $5.10 profit.  At this time, we believe it is prudent to hold the shares, currently trading at $35.56, and the Jan $35 2012 call.

Xyratex (XRTX): On December 20, 2010 we added Xyratex (XRTX) using the buy/write strategy and acquiring half the shares we wanted exposure to and selling March $15 calls and puts for a net $3.60.  XRTX is trading at $11.14 today on expiration day, so the call side will expire worthless ($1.80 profit) and the puts will be exercised – the


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Bring Out Your Dead

Portfolio house keeping – time to say goodbye to mistakes, rebalance what’s left and raise cash? – Ilene 

Bring Out Your Dead

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

unemployment

A slightly better than expected reading on weekly Jobless Claims has the market feeling bouncy this morning.  We also just got AAII sentiment numbers that are as negative as you get (20% bulls, 49% bears!).

Combine these two data points and a Dow that just barely managed to keep itself above the 10,000 level yesterday and you have the recipe for a nice bounce.

I’m planning to use it.  I’m planning on bringing out my dead for the cart man to carry away.

Sunlight is the greatest disinfectant known to man, so with this morning’s early rays of sunshine I will cleanse the house that is my long book.  I’ll be scouring my portfolios searching for the stocks that have become corpses during the correction’s long night.

This is not because I don’t believe that the bounce could be sustainable (I’m willing to give it the benefit of the doubt for now).  Rather, my expulsion of these stock market casualties has more to do with my desire for liquidity and my wish to be rid of that awful stench of death.

When the cart comes by, I’ll be heaping it with the bodies of a few nat gas stories that are going nowhere, a huge retailer that seems to have no bottom and a financial name or two.

I don’t give specific financial advice here on this site, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to use this opportunity to accept some of the mistakes of the summer and prepare your portfolio for the fall.

Bring out your dead.

Weekly jobless claims fall 31,000 to 473,000 (MarketWatch) 


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The Dark Horse Hedge

The Dark Horse Hedge

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene, at Phil’s Stock World

Silhouette of Horses Jumping a Steeplchase

Scott Brown, Managing Director – Retail Division at Sabrient, is launching a newsletter with Phil’s Stock World based on the highly successful and popular Investors’ (H)Edge product.  The Dark Horse Hedge newsletter is a Long/Short retail portfolio taking advantage of technical market trends to tilt the balance of LONG vs. SHORT in bearish, bullish or range bound markets for added Alpha (the measure of return on a risk adjusted basis).  Long and short equity positions taken in The Dark Horse Hedge portfolio will be chosen using to Sabrient’s rating system, which is primarily based on fundamental criteria. Because the stock positions will generally be held for intermediate to long periods, these positions are ideal for using with option strategies taught by Phil Davis, of Phil’s Stock World.

The Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) newsletter will follow a number of guidelines in an attempt to minimize systemic risk, or “Beta.” Beta is a measure of the volatility of a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.  To keep beta low, the DHH portfolio will have both long and short positions.  Consequently, dramatic moves in the market will always be in the direction of at least part of the portfolio.

Using Sabrient’s rating system, we will focus on being long high quality stocks, and short low quality stocks.  Long positions should fare better than average during market selloffs.  In contrast, the short positions, selected from the lowest ranking stocks, should perform well during selloffs. These stocks are also expected to underperform higher quality names in a stronger market.  This strategy is designed to balance the goal of attaining Alpha with the desire to keep Beta relatively low.

We will follow this list of guidelines in building the DHH portfolio.

1.  When fully invested, the Portfolio will have 24 positions.  However the portfolio may not be fully invested.

2.  Tilting (or weighing) of the portfolio will be based on the position of the SPX relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages

  • If the SPX is below both its 50


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Q3 $100,000 Virtual Portfolio – The Income Producer

I recently went down to Florida to see my folks and found something disturbing as I talked to their friends.

We all know that many people who have been on fixed incomes lost 50% of more of their virtual portfolios during the crash but what I hadn't realized is how deeply this was impacting those retirees because their fund/pension managers have, for the most part, done nothing to adjust their investing strategies at the market bottom. 

The average American has just $88,000 when they retire but we're not talking about them – we are talking about the retirees we aspire to be – the upper percentile Seniors in like the ones in West Palm Beach and  Boca Raton, Florida.  The average couple there had closer to $1M in portflio assets before the crash and closer to $600,000 now.  Even so, that can cause quite an income adjustment for a retired couple

Fortunately most of these people own their homes and get free government health care (Medicare) so they are not as devastated as younger Americans who are still paying off their homes and just working on saving for retirement while trying to provide health care and education for their children.  With Social Security (another thing that is iffy for us younger Baby Boomers down the road) adding $2,000 a month, the average 6% rate of return on a balanced virtual portfolio of $1M was $5,000 a month plus $2,000 from SS = $7,000 a month, generally enough to pay taxes and bills for the house, eat out once in a while, support 2 cars, do a bit of traveling and even belong to a golf club (dues in the average high-end development are $15,000 a year). 

 

The idea, of course, is to do all this WITHOUT dipping into the $1M principal that's invested in stocks and bonds.  Then came the crash.  The S&P dropped from 1,500 to 666, down 55% in less than a year.  Suddenly the $5,000 a month that came from investments dropped to $2,500 a month or less.  Even worse, many classic virtual portfolio mainstays like dividend paying financial institutions and American manufacturing companies were among the worst hits with dividends being canceled and some financials going to zero so quickly there was no chance to…
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Vacation-Proof Your Virtual Portfolio

A couple of years ago, Option Sage (Gareth) and I put up a very popular article titled "Vacation-Proof Your Virtual Portfolio."

In it we discussed several strategies for hedging existing positions, moving them into neutral positions ahead of a time when you would be going away and not able to keep your eye on the markets.  As we cashed out last week, it hasn't been much of an issue coming into this long weekend but some of you still have long postiions that need protecting and Sage has been kind enough to provide us with access to a free on-line seminar on the subject through his educational platform at www.MarketTamer.com.   

I don't recommend many services but Sage was an original member who went on to write many of our educational posts over the years and went on to develop an on-line trading education system that is very, very good for learning stock and options trading.  PSW members get a special offer of $99/month, which is 1/3 the going rate AND he will give you that $99 back if you are not satisfied after the first month!  So check out the link above, there are 3 free lessons there and read through the article.  If you plan on going away with positions open this summer in this crazy market – I think it will be time well spent…

Those of you who know Sage have probably already linked over but for those of you who didn't get a chance to meet him when he was on-line with us all the time, here's a copy of Market Tamer's recent press release, which tells you a bit about Gareth and the company he's been building:

Taming The Market
 
A shockingly simple yet amazingly powerful concept has been ignored by major hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail traders alike.  On their quest to outperform the market, Wall Street's best often get sucked into a single style of investing or trading:  long only, long/short, distressed, diversified and the list goes on.  They use a single approach to exploit a changing market.  And often a single approach works – for a while.  Bill Miller of Legg Mason was regarded as one of the stars on Wall Street until his virtual portfolio…
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$100,000 Hedged Portflio Update

We didn't do a wrap-up last week as I instead wrote a long, Members Only post (only Part 1 too) on "Setting Up A $100,000 Hedged Virtual Portfolio" concentrating on a virtual $20,000 allocation in the financials for our first sector.

We're going to do more of these on the weekends as people find them useful and also because, although they are very popular, I do get tired of just reviewing what we did for the past 5 trading days every week.  So maybe a little of both today but I aim to keep this short (as I usually do, but it never works out) so we can do another post on earnings plays tomorrow.

How is our new sample virtual portfolio looking after a week?  Well let's see

  • 500 UYG at $3.48, selling 5 May $3 calls for .72 and 5 May $3 puts for .28, net $2.48/2.74

    • UYG now $3.79, May put and call combo now $1.12 = net $2.67 ($95 profit on $1,240 = 7.7%)
  • Selling 2 FAS $7.50 puts for .45 naked

    • FAS closed at $9.40 so 100% profit of $90
  • 500 C at $3.04, selling May $3 puts and calls for $1.11, net $1.93/2.47

    • C now $3.65, May $3 put and call combo is $1.19 = net $2.46 ($265 profit on $965 = 27.5%)
  • Selling 2 IYF May $36 puts for $2 naked

    • IYF closed at $40.26, May $36 puts $1.20 ($160 profit on $400 =40%)
  • Selling 2 JPM May $29 puts for $1.95 naked

    • JPM closed at $33.26, May $29 puts $1.17 ($156 profit on $390 = 40%)
  • Selling 7 FAZ May $10 puts for $2.40 naked (adjusted to reflect Monday's gap down open)

    • May $10 puts are now $2.67 so a loss of $189 (-11.3%).  Both our July and Oct escape rolls are still intact so no worries here anyway (this is a hedge to the others)
  • 5 FAZ Oct $12.50 calls for $4 (adjusted), selling 5 May $21s for $1.05, net $2.95.

    • The Oct $12.50s are now $3.29, May $21s are now .45 so net $2.85, a loss of $50 (3.4%)

So far so good!  The FAZ hedges are holding up nicely while all of our upside plays were winners. …
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Zero Hedge

Leaving The EU's Customs Union Is The Only Logical Step For A Truly "Global Britain"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Vincenzo Scarpetta via Open Europe,

As UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to trigger the Article 50 EU exit mechanism on Wednesday, Open Europe has published a ne...



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ValueWalk

Undervalued and Undiscovered Flanigan's Enterprises Inc. Well Positioned For Growth

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of the cheapest stocks in our Acquirer’s Multiple, Small & Micro CapStock Screener is Flanigan’s Enterprises, Inc. (NYSEMKT:BDL). With a market cap around $46 million, few investors have ever heard of this great nano-cap.

Flanigan’s Enterprises, Inc. (Flanigan’s) operates a chain of full-service restaurants and package liquor stores in South Florida. The company operates package liquor stores under the Big Daddy’s Liquors name, which offer private label liquors, beer, and wines; and restaurants under ...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



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Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.


Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLT over the past 9-months.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>