Posts Tagged ‘poverty’

Non-Farm Friday – Will Jobs Report Restore Market Confidence?

Ouch, that really stings!  

They say you can't keep a good market down but it remains to be seen whether or not we have a good market with almost all of August and September's BS gains (see any of my posts for warnings and hedge ideaserased just 3 days into October.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Russell, in particular, completed it's 10% drop yesterday and, as I said to our Members in yesterday's live Chat Room as we neared the bottom:

/TF/Jasu – Just a bit oversold and, as noted yesterday (and above) it's completing a 10% drop from 1,200 at 1,080, so that's a very firm line for a bounce and that's 20% of a 120-point drop, so we're looking for 25-point bounces to 1,105 (weak) and 1,130 (strong) now.  Anything less than 1,105 today is a failure and, if not tomorrow, then expect more downside next week.  

SPY DAILY/TF is the Futures on the Russell 2000 index and already this morning we're back to 1,097, which is up $1,700 per contract (see how easy this is?) from our 1,080 entry and just a little shy of our expected weak bounce.  

We do expect resistance at 1,100 so this is a good time to take profits off the table and we can go long again over that line or flip to the S&P Futures (/ES) over 1,950 or Nasdaq (/NQ) over 4,000 or the Dow (/YM) over 16,800.  As long as they are all performing, we can be confident on the long side. 

As we discussed with our Members earlier this morning, there's no particular reason to get bullish – this is just a technical bounce we expect off our 5% lines per our 5% Rule™ and, if they trun out to be weak bounces, then we can expect another 2.5-5% of downside next week.  That means we can use those same index lines to go short if they fail as we would to go long if they succeed this morning – that will be all up
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Monday Market Movement – Mind the (Wealth) Gap!

Congratulations to 440,000 of us!

That’s how many people became Millionaires in the past 12 months (ending in June).  According to a new survey from Phoenix Marketing International’s Affluent Market Practice, the number of American households with investible assets of $1 million or more rose 8% in the 12 months ended in June. The survey says there now are 5.55 million U.S. households with investible assets of $1 million or more.  That follows two years of declines and brings the Millionaire count back to 2006 levels. Of course, that is still below the peak of 5.97 million in 2007 and the current growth rate is well below pre-financial crisis levels, when the Millionaire population increased as much as 35% a year

Still, the numbers offer further evidence that the wealthy may have decoupled from the rest of the economy, as we expected would happen in "A Tale of Two Economies," my 2010 outlook. The study’s authors say high salary growth, rather than investments, are the main drivers of the Millionaire expansion.  As we who play the markets are painfully aware, $1M in assets doesn’t leave a lot of room for investments.  The very wealthy, on the other hand, had a much better year than the mere Millionaires. The population of American households with $5 million or more in investible assets surged 16%. The population of those with $10 million to invest increased 17%.  The rich have never been getting richer than they have been in 2010!  

Of course, in order for someone to get rich, someone has to get poor and, this year it took 4M Americans falling below the poverty line ($22,000 for a family of 4) to provide the cash for our 440,000 winners.  That’s pretty much right in line with the numbers I’ve been citing over and over again – it takes 1,000 poor people to make one rich one!  

The Census Bureau found that the fraction of Americans living in poverty rose sharply to 14.3% in 2009, up from 13.2% previously. This is the highest level since 1994. In total, 43.6 million Americans were living in poverty last year.  Even the median family is getting the shaft in America with 2010 inflation-adjusted salaries barely keeping pace with 1980 inflation-adjusted salaries – making 3 full decades without improvement for the average American family.  According to the WSJ, the bottom 40% (120M people) have dropped from having 14.5% of the nation’s income in 1980 to having 12% in…
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America’s Lost Decade – Another One in Progress Now

America’s Lost Decade – Another One in Progress Now

Courtesy of Mish 

The US used to point the finger at Japan’s "Lost Decade" saying "It won’t happen here." But it did. Median wages are nearly 5% lower in real terms than in 2000, the poverty rate is at a 15 year high, and the S&P 500 is about 20% lower than it was a decade ago.

Pleased consider the Wall Street Journal article Lost Decade for Family Income

The downturn that some have dubbed the "Great Recession" has trimmed the typical household’s income significantly, new Census data show, following years of stagnant wage growth that made the past decade the worst for American families in at least half a century.

The bureau’s annual snapshot of American living standards also found that the fraction of Americans living in poverty rose sharply to 14.3% from 13.2% in 2008—the highest since 1994. Some 43.6 million Americans were living below the official poverty threshold, but the measure doesn’t fully capture the panoply of government antipoverty measures.

The inflation-adjusted income of the median household—smack in the middle of the populace—fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009, even worse than the 1970s, when median income rose 1.9% despite high unemployment and inflation. Between 2007 and 2009, incomes fell 4.2%.

Lost Decade Lowlights

  • Americans living in poverty rose sharply to 14.3% from 13.2% in 2008
  • Poverty level is the highest since 1994
  • 43.6 million Americans are living below the official poverty threshold
  • Inflation-adjusted income of the median household fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009
  • The number of 25-to-34-year-olds living with their parents rose 8.4% to 5.5 million in 2010 from 2008
  • Child poverty rose to 23.8% for kids under six in 2009, compared to 21.3% a year earlier

Census Bureau Charts

Here are a few select charts from Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009, Issued September 2010.

click on any chart for sharper image

Real Incomes 1967 to 2009

Poverty Rates 1959 to 2009

In general, the chart shows the "War on Poverty" was a failure regardless of what political party was in office. The odd pair of Clinton and Nixon did the best, while Carter and George W. Bush the worst. Reagan and George H. Bush both had roller coasters ending about where they started, while Ford essentially experienced a flatline.

Since the…
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20 Signs That The Economic Collapse Has Already Begun For One Out Of Every Seven Americans

20 Signs That The Economic Collapse Has Already Begun For One Out Of Every Seven Americans

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

For most Americans, the economic collapse is something that is happening to someone else.  Most of us have become so isolated from each other and so self-involved that unless something is directly affecting us or a close family member than we really don’t feel it.  But even though most of us enjoy a much closer relationship with our television sets than we do with our neighbors at this point, it is quickly becoming undeniable that a fundamental shift is taking place in society.  Perhaps you noticed it when two or three foreclosure signs went up on your street.  Or perhaps it got your attention when that nice fellow down the street lost his job, and he and his family seemingly just disappeared from the neighborhood one day.  The Census Bureau made front page headlines all over the nation this week when they announced that one out of every seven Americans was living in poverty in 2009.  Every single day more Americans are getting sucked out of the middle class and into soul-crushing poverty.   

Unfortunately, most Americans don’t really care because it has not affected them yet.

But this year, millions more Americans will discover that the music has stopped playing and they are left without a seat at the table.

Meanwhile, neither political party has a workable solution.  They just like to point fingers and blame each other.

The Democrats blame Bush for all the poverty and advocate expanding programs for the poor.  Not that there is anything wrong with a safety net.  But the "safety net" was never meant to hold 50 million people on Medicaid and 40 million people on food stamps.  The number of Americans on food stamps has more than…
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Let Them Eat Cake

Let Them Eat Cake

Courtesy of PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS at CounterPunch 

RHINEBECK, NY - JULY 30: A congratulations sign on display on July 30, 2010 in Rhinebeck, New York. Chelsea Clinton plans to get married in Rhinebeck on July 31, 2010. (Photo by Bryan Bedder/Getty Images)

It is not unusual for members of the diminishing upper middle class to drop $20,000 or $30,000 on a big wedding. But for celebrities this large sum wouldn’t cover the wedding dress or the flowers.

When country music star Keith Urban married actress Nicole Kidman in 2006, their wedding cost $250,000. This large sum hardly counts as a celebrity wedding. When mega-millionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump married model Melania Knauss, the wedding bill was $1,000,000.

The marriages of Madonna and film director Guy Ritchie, Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren, and Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta-Jones pushed up the cost of celebrity marriages to $1.5 million.

Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes upped the ante to $2,000,000.

Now comes the politicians’s daughter as celebrity. According to news reports, Chelsea Clinton’s wedding to investment banker Mark Mezvinsky on July 31 is costing papa Bill $3,000,000. According to the London Daily Mail, the total price tag will be about $5,000,000. The additional $2,000,000 apparently is being laid off on US Taxpayers as Secret Service costs for protecting former president Clinton and foreign heads of state, such as the presidents of France and Italy and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who are among the 500 invited guests along with Barbara Streisand, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey, Ted Turner, and Clinton friend and donor Denise Rich, wife of the Clinton-pardoned felon.

Before we attend to the poor political judgment of such an extravagant affair during times of economic distress, let us wonder aloud where a poor boy who became governor of Arkansas and president of the United States got such a fortune that he can blow $3,000,000 on a wedding.

The American people did not take up a collection to reward him for his service to them.
Where did the money come from? Who was he really serving during his eight years in office?

How did Tony Blair and his wife, Cherrie, end up with an annual income of ten million pounds (approximately $15 million dollars) as soon as he left office? Who was Blair really serving?

These are not polite questions, and they are infrequently asked.

While Chelsea’s wedding guests eat a $11,000 wedding cake and admire $250,000 floral displays, Lisa Roberts in Ohio is struggling to raise contributions for her food pantry in order to feed…
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Why Teachers’ Unions Matter

Unions have become a divisive issue in the financial bloggosphere, so in the interest of presenting both sides, here’s an article supporting Unions. Another article showing a flip side to prevailing anti-Union wrath is Zero Hedge‘s Labor Unions Preparing To Take Goldman Sachs To Task, Push For Transaction Tax In Upcoming Widespread Rallies. – Ilene  

Why Teachers’ Unions Matter

Nurses, Teachers, Students And Firefighters Protest Schwarzenegger Event

By SHAMUS COOKE writing at CounterPunch 

Nowadays a newspaper cannot be opened — or a TV turned on — without one being subjected to anti-teacher misinformation. The anti-teacher hysteria looks diverse on the surface, but underneath, this public controversy seeks to dislodge teachers unions: the right-wing trashes teachers’ unions outright, while the “liberal” media takes a more subtle, sophisticated approach, blaming the state of public education on “bad teachers” who must be fired and replaced. Both styles are the same in essence. 

The bi-partisan goal is to undermine and dismember public education, so that public funds may be instead channeled into paying debts racked up by multiple wars and corporate bailouts. Also, as public education is gutted, rich investors parasitically benefit from it by opening for-profit “charter schools,” curriculum corporations, or the bevy of new companies that "certify" teachers for a fraction of the cost or time of universities, ready to serve at the new corporate McEducation institutes.

Obama’s Race to the Top campaign enshrines these odious goals into governmental policy, picking up where Bush’s anti-teacher union policies left off, and racing frantically in the same direction, to the bottom. 

The schools that Bush’s No Child Left Behind labeled as “failures” are to be shut down under Obama’s Race to the Top. These schools are almost entirely in poor neighborhoods, where the social disease of poverty is an easy predictor of a child’s poor test scores.

But Obama ignores this obvious fact and blames poor grades and test scores on the teachers, exclusively. 

Thus, Obama cheered when every teacher at a Rhode Island “failing” high school was fired. He praised the past closures of dozens of public schools in both Chicago and New Orleans as examples for others to follow. Indeed, Detroit and Kansas City each have plans to close dozens of schools, while California is set to fire thousands of teachers. Under Obama’s plan, federal money is awarded to states that fire the most "bad" teachers and close the most “failing” public schools. 

Charter schools…
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NYT: 1 in 4 Children, and 1 in 8 Americans Now on Food Stamps

NYT: 1 in 4 Children, and 1 in 8 Americans Now on Food Stamps

food stampsCourtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

The topic of what is happening with hunger is nothing new to regular readers of FMMF; we’ve been harping on it for over 2 years as mirage like stories of the "strength" of the US economy, based on government reports (2007, early 2008) and measures such as GDP dominate our ideas of how to measure prosperity.   But judging from the "comments" section in the web version of this weekend’s story in the New York Times, a lot of Americans are getting their first education on what is truly happening under the surface.  I assume many foreign readers must also be shocked as they read about the dirty underbelly of the world’s "richest"* country.
*excluding debt.

When I began the blog in summer 2007, 1 in 11 Americans were on food stamps.  In just a few years that had jumped to 1 in 9.  [Jun 8, 2009: 1 in 9 Americans on Food Stamps]  Now, the New York Times report says the figure has unfortunately hit new thresholds….increasing to 1 in 8 Americans, including 1 in 4 children.  Let us be clear, there is certainly fraud in the system, and people taking advantage of the largesse of the government – that cannot be disputed and if there is one place to increase government spending, it is auditing of these type of programs..  But there is no way that rate of increase happens due to just fraud… it’s an indictment of the hollowing out of our economy and the increasing bifurcation of the economic fortunes in the country.   Not everyone can be a business owner or investment banker – jobs that used to fulfill the needs of the "middle" of America are disappearing and no one asks the questions of why.  Meanwhile, the cost of living remains high, in fact our central bank is trying to increase it by the minute rather than letting the market decrease them (AS IS NEEDED), while wage have been pressured for over a decade.  The house ATM filled the gap for many in the middle part of the decade but people are now out of options…

We’ve warned / predicted in 2007 this was going to be a long term trend, but frankly even I am shocked…
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Decade of No Income Gains

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Decade of No Income Gains

low income Courtesy of Mish

For the first time since the great depression (and possibly even then), US wage earners suffered through A Decade With No Income Gains.

The typical American household made less money last year than the typical household made a full decade ago.

To me, that’s the big news from the Census Bureau’s annual report on income, poverty and health insurance, which was released this morning. Median household fell to $50,303 last year, from $52,163 in 2007. In 1998, median income was $51,295. All these numbers are adjusted for inflation.

In the four decades that the Census Bureau has been tracking household income, there has never before been a full decade in which median income failed to rise. (The previous record was seven years, ending in 1985.) Other Census data [Historical Income Tables] suggest that it also never happened between the late 1940s and the late 1960s. So it doesn’t seem to have happened since at least the 1930s.

Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage

Inquiring minds are digging into the Slide Show Presentation on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008

click on any chart to see a sharper image

income

poverty

percent change in real median income

There are numerous other charts in the slide show on health insurance and poverty levels. Inquiring minds will want to take a look.

David Leonhardt writes "The streak probably won’t end in 2009, either. Unemployment has been rising all year, which is a strong sign income will fall."

Given that we are likely to have Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade, this trend of stagnant or falling wages can last much longer than most realize.

Here’s something to think about: If the housing boom from 2000 to 2007 produced no sustainable wage increases (if indeed any wage increases at all) what will? After pondering that, think about where home prices are going with poor wage potential and tightened lending standards.

Indeed what does this trend say about price pressures in general?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Photo: Low income states, Photo and license at Wikimedia.

 


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ValueWalk

NZX Stock Pitch

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NZX summary Via Elevation Capital

Seth Klarman: A Bubble Warning From The Past

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
§ NZX operates a monopoly-like business that retains the ability to at least grow in line with GDP; however,
§ The business has suffered from ill discipline over the past five years, with operating margin declining by over 50%, and total
return to shareholders of +22.5% significantly underperforming the NZX50’s +105.1%.
§ While the Agri data and publishing businesses have in the past been strong contributors to profit, the publishing landscape
has changed, and NZX was slow to react;...



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Zero Hedge

Lacy Hunt: The Fed Has Undermined The Economy's Ability To Grow

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Stephen McBride via MauldinEconomics.com

The Fed’s hope was that quantitative easing would stimulate economic growth. But a former senior economist for the Fed believes it has done the exact opposite.

Speaking at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference, Dr. Lacy Hunt, the executive vice president of Hosington Investment Management and former senior economist for the Dallas Fed, said that quantitative easing has created “significant unintended consequences.”

The Worst Expansion in US History

...



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Phil's Favorites

Wholesale and Retail Inventories Rise Led by Autos: Diving Into Seasonal Adjustments

Courtesy of Mish.

On Monday, Census Department data showed durable-goods orders declined 1.1% for the month.

Yet, despite falling sales and a warning from GM, durable goods orders for autos and auto parts rose 1.2% in May. That was on top of a 0.5% gain in April.

The auto mystery continues as today’s advance trade data from the Census Department shows Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% and retail inventories rose 0.6%. The auto-related details were even more interesting.

International Trade in Goods by Category

Auto imports f...



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Insider Scoop

Vetr Crowd Downgrades Snap To 4 Stars

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Since reaching its all-time high in February, Snap Inc (NYSE: SNAP) has traded down all the way down to its $17 IPO price, and the Vetr community has downgraded the stock from 4.5 stars to 4 stars. The company’s first earnings report saw misses on both EPS and revenue estimates.

See how crowdsourced ratings can help predict the market?

Vetr members have given Snap a Buy rating and a $19.38 price target. This price target fairs lower than the $23.08 price target from professional analysts. The stock opened Wednesday around $17.35.

Of all Vetr raters, 62.9 percent believe traders and inve...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Experience Heaviest Loss

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday's losses followed through with fresh declines on higher volume distribution. Worst hit was the Semiconductor Index as it gave up nearly 3%. Today's finish left it at rising channel support and a chance for bulls to mount a rebound. Technicals are net bearish after stochastics undercut the mid-line which suggests a more prolonged trend lower is in the making.


The Nasdaq followed the loss of the 'bull trap' with a breakdown of rising support. This left the index on its 50-day MA which may give b...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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