Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Posts Tagged ‘property bubble’

China’s Top 10 Business Stories in 2011

Courtesy of Patrick Chovanec

As the year comes to a close, and we look forward to 2012, I continue the tradition I started last year and offer a brief look at the top stories that shaped China’s business and economic climate in 2011:

1. High-Speed Rail.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times — China’s ambitious high-speed rail program embodied the highest highs and the lowest lows the country experienced this year.  In January, President Obama cited the planned 20,000km network in his annual State of the Union address as a prime example of how America need to catch up to the Chinese.  As if to prove his point, June saw the grand opening of the much-heralded Beijing-Shanghai line, timed to coincide with the Communist Party’s 90th anniversary celebrations.   But even before then, there were signs of trouble on the horizon, starting in February when the powerful head of China’s railway ministry — the project’s godfather — was abruptly fired as part of a massive corruption scandal.  Then a crash on a line near Wenzhou, in which at least 35 people were killed, unleashed a wave of fury on the Chinese internet, forcing the government to re-think the entire project amid charges of cover-up and sloppy construction.  By November, with high-speed trains running at chronically low capacity and construction debts piling up, the railway ministry was asking Beijing for a rumored RMB 800 billion (US$ 126 billion) bailout just to pay the money it owed suppliers.

2.  Inflation.  Few issues preoccupied the average Chinese citizen — or Chinese policymakers — this year as much as rapidly rising prices.   The consumer inflation rate, which began the year just shy of 5%,rose to 6.5% by July.  The increase was led by food prices, particularly pork – a staple part of the Chinese diet — which skyrocketed by more than 50%.  Keenly aware of the potential for popular unrest, Beijing made containing prices its top economic priority — even if that meant reining in growth.  Throughout the year, the central bank repeatedly raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements, in an effort to bring the pace of credit expansion back under control.  The powerful state planning bureau leaned heavily on Chinese companies not to raise prices, and even hit consumer goods giant Unilever with a stiff antitrust fine for publicly discussing possible price hikes.  While CPI did decline to 4.2% by…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

David Rosenberg (the bear) takes a walk on the bullish side and here’s what he finds to be optimistic about. – Ilene 

17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

Bull in bear costume

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Regular readers know I tend to focus on the negative aspects of the markets as opposed to the positives – anyone could put on a smile and skip through oncoming traffic, but the truth is, the investment world can be a very dangerous place so skipping along as if there are no risks involved is beyond foolish.  But ignoring the positives is equally foolish.  In this world of heightened market risks and particularly clear uncertainty here are 17  reasons to consider the bullish case (via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff):

  • Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
  • Polls showing the GoP can take the House and the Senate in November.
  • Some Democrats now want the tax hikes for 2011 to be delayed.
  • Cap and trade is dead.
  • Cameron’s popularity in the U.K. and market reaction there is setting an example for others regarding budgetary reform.
  • China’s success in curbing its property bubble without bursting it.
  • Growing confidence that the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, will be able to ‘decouple’ this time around. We heard this from more than just one CEO on our recent trip to NYC and Asian thumbprints were all over the positive news these past few weeks out of the likes of FedEx and UPS.
  • Renewed stability in Eurozone debt and money markets – including successful bond auctions amongst the Club Med members.
  • Clarity with respect to European bank vulnerability.
  • Signs that consumer credit delinquency rates in the U.S. are rolling over.
  • Mortgage delinquencies down five quarters in a row in California to a three-year low.
  • The BP oil spill moving off the front pages.
  • The financial regulation bill behind us and Goldman deciding to settle –more uncertainty out of the way.
  • Widespread refutation of the ECRI as a leading indicator … even among the architects of the index! There is tremendous conviction now that a double-dip will be averted, even though 85% of the data releases in the past month have come in below expectations.
  • Earnings season living up to expectations, especially among some key large-caps in the tech/industrial space – Microsoft, AT&T, CAT, and 3M are being viewed as game changers (especially 3M’s upped guidance).


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

So China sees a potential bubble in stocks and real estate.  That’s funny, I remember saying there was a property bubble in China just a couple of days ago…

Today is one of those days where investors reassess their sector exposure.  The news that China’s economic commanders have just told the banks to cut back on loans may have more of an effect on a US portfolio than many may think.

Hold off on patting yourself on the back for avoiding all those China ADRs that have invaded the IBD Top 100 – plenty of US stocks have doubled over the last year and they certainly didn’t do that because of the make believe recovery here in the States.

China’s decision to slow the train down in terms of stock and property values will have an impact on the velocity of oil companies, infrastructure companies, miners, steel companies, copper companies and even agricultural plays. 

Panic is not the name of the game, analysis is.  You may be surprised to look over your portfolio and notice that a great deal of it is geared toward the growth in emerging markets.  We hit new highs yesterday on the S&P and the last fund flow data I heard showed the first positive net money flow into equities in a long time. 

Translation: everybody’s long.

Whether you believe that this is a hiccup or that China is truly concerned about engineering a soft landing, today may be a good time to get real about what you own and why.  Let’s be honest with ourselves about where our exposure really is, whether our stocks are headquartered in China or not.

Read Also:

Of Course Chinese Real Estate is a Bubble. Grow Up.  (TRB)

 


Tags: , ,




New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

No bubble here.  You may need to register with scmp.com to read the entire articles. – Ilene

(Thank you, Terry)

New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

Busy Shanghai street

Mainland banks in Shanghai’s red-hot housing market lent 99.58 billion yuan (HK$113.2 billion) in new mortgages last year, up dramatically from 5.8 billion yuan in 2008, as home seekers rushed to buy and prices hit new highs.

The banks lent 38.93 billion yuan to buyers of new residential properties and 60.65 billion yuan to buyers of second-hand homes, the Shanghai office of the People’s Bank of China said yesterday.

Lending soared more than 1,600 per cent compared with 2008, when the property market and overall economy were hit hard by the global financial crisis, the central bank said.

Full article here.>>

Beofre you start worrying, know this. (Classic Chinese oxymoronic title.)

No sign of bubble despite soaring home prices in Shanghai

Shanghai’s residential market shows no signs of a bubble despite a hefty price increase because demand remains strong, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Price increases "do not mean that the market has reached extreme valuations that typify a bubble", the real estate service firm said in a report yesterday. "Overall, the policy environment will evolve to keep prices from growing too quickly."..

Soaring home prices on the mainland have sparked asset bubble worries among the country’s top leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao who promised to take action.

According to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services, average housing prices in the city jumped 65.3 per cent last month from a year earlier, hitting a record 20,187 yuan (HK$22,930) per square metre.

Shanghai Securities News reported earlier this month that the mainland would probably start imposing property tax in selective cities this year, a heavy-handed move to cool the red-hot housing market…

More here.>>

And rest assured, the non-bubble is going to be curbed.

Mainland to curb lending binge, says chief regulator

Mainland will slow its massive lending spree and step up monitoring of banks as it tries to prevent speculative bubbles in real estate and other assets while keeping the country’s economic recovery on track, a top regulator said on Wednesday.

Mainland’s banking system is healthy despite last year’s explosive growth in credit and regulators could manage the risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission…

After handing out some


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

warningCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

I don’t know how much clear it gets than this:

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) — U.S. regulators including the Federal Reserve warned banks to guard against possible losses from an end to low interest rates and reduce exposure or raise capital if needed.

“In the current environment of historically low short-term interest rates, it is important for institutions to have robust processes for measuring and, where necessary, mitigating their exposure to potential increases in interest rates,” the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which includes the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other agencies, said in a statement today.

Let me point out a few things.

  1. We have never seen a crash and rebound in US stock market history like what we have just experienced, except once.  That "once" was 1929/1930.  What followed next was a grueling grind – not a crash, but a grind that never ended, and in which the market lost more than 80% of it’s value.  Those who argue "the bigger the dive the bigger the bounce" forget that the only true comparison against what we have just seen was in fact the prelude to a grinding 90%+ overall decline. 
  2. If you believe in "long wave" cycles – that is, Kondratieff cycles, we have precisely followed the several-hundred-year long pattern though its latest incarnation, with the 1982-2000ish period being "Autumn."  Winter follows fall.  These cycles seem to happen mostly because all (or essentially all) of the people who lived through the last cycle’s horrors are dead.  Unless we have found a way to break a cycle that has endured far longer than our nation, we’re right where we should be – which incidentally aligns with what happened in 1929/30 as well.  This means that while there may be ups and downs we have not bottomed – not by a long shot – no matter what people tell you. 
  3. Interest rates can only go up from zero.  That should be obvious.  Rising rates are not positive for equities and multiple expansion.
  4. The Financials are getting a tremendous bid the last few days, presumably on the premise that "employment is at least somewhat stabilizing."  With zero short rates and a steep yield curve, this means they make


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Market Shadows

Riding in Toyota Today

Riding in Toyota Today

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows Virtual Value Portfolio put most of our remaining cash reserves to work this morning in buying 38 ADRs (American Depository Receipts) of Toyota Motor Company (TM) the world’s largest seller of automobiles and trucks.  We like and already own shares of Honda (HMC) as well.

The stock was down overnight due to negative action in the Japanese marketplace so we got a great entry price of just $106.57 per ADR today.

Toyota’s 52-week range has b...



more from Paul

Chart School

How Long to the Next Recession? iM's Weekly Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The BCI at 169.3 is down from last week's upward revised level of 169.5. BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, at 16.9 is down from last week's upward revised 17.5. This week's BCI shows no recessionary trends.

Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.



Click for a larger image

The off-peak indicato...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Desperate Ukraine Pleads: "Red Line Has Already Been Crossed"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky exhorted to US State department officials, "let's not look for further time frames," demanding "all necessary pressure" be applied now. The red line has already been crossed and, as Bloomberg reports,  Lubkivsky says he hopes U.S., EU don’t prioritize political concerns over moral ones and that the West will help with economic, diplomatic and military assistance.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

“Let’s not look for further time frames” and instead exert “all necessary pressure,” Ukrainian deputy foreign minister Danylo Lubkivsky tells State Dept officials, jo...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most In 4 Months, Continuing Claims At Best Since 2007

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Initial jobless claims surged from 304k to 329k this week, the biggest weekly rise since mid-December. From exuberance at new cycle lows, we swing to the average of the last 8 months. This is the biggest miss to expectations in over 2 months. Continuing Claims dropped further to new cycle lows at 2.68 million (beating expectations) - its lowest since Dec 2007. So this is as good as it gets for continuing claims - America is back at its best!

Initial claims surges back up to its average of the last 8 months...

...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

Zogenix Announces Sale of SUMAVEL DosePro Migraine Therapy to Endo International for $85M, Up to $20M Milestone Payments

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ZGNX Zogenix Responds to Governor's Action Singling Out Zohydro ER in Massachusetts Zogenix Shares Soar on Massachusetts Developments - Analyst Blog

Zogenix, Inc. (Nasdaq: ZGNX), a pharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products for the treatment of pain-related and central nervous system (CNS) disorders, announced today that it has entered a definitive agreement to sell its SUMAVEL® DoseP...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Option Review

Casino Stocks LVS, WYNN On The Run Ahead of Earnings

Shares in Las Vegas Sands Corp. (Ticker: LVS) are up sharply today, gaining as much as 5.7% to touch $80.12 and the highest level since April 4th, mirroring gains in shares of resort casino operator Wynn Resorts Ltd. (Ticker: WYNN). The move in Wynn shares appears, at least in part, to follow a big increase in target price from analysts at CLSA who upped their target on the ‘buy’ rated stock to $350 from $250 a share. CLSA also has a ‘buy’ rating on Las Vegas Sands with a $100 price target according to a note from reporter, Janet Freund, on Bloomberg. Both companies are scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday.

...

more from Caitlin

Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Market Poised to Head Higher: 3 Stocks to Consider

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Yesterday, the market continued its winning ways for the fifth consecutive day.  The S&P 500 closed within 1% of its all-time high, and the DJI was even closer to its all-time high.  Healthcare, Energy and Technology led the sectors while Financials, Telecom, and Utilities finished slightly in the red.  All three sectors in the red are typically flight-to-safety stocks, so despite lower than average volume, the market appears poised to make new highs.

Mid-cap Growth led the style/caps last week, up 2.87%, and Small-cap Growth trailed, up 2.22%. This week will bring well over 100 S&P 500 stocks reporting their March quarter earn...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of April 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up for a free trial.

...

more from SWW

Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions

Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



more from Pharmboy



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>