Posts Tagged ‘property bubble’

China’s Top 10 Business Stories in 2011

Courtesy of Patrick Chovanec

As the year comes to a close, and we look forward to 2012, I continue the tradition I started last year and offer a brief look at the top stories that shaped China’s business and economic climate in 2011:

1. High-Speed Rail.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times — China’s ambitious high-speed rail program embodied the highest highs and the lowest lows the country experienced this year.  In January, President Obama cited the planned 20,000km network in his annual State of the Union address as a prime example of how America need to catch up to the Chinese.  As if to prove his point, June saw the grand opening of the much-heralded Beijing-Shanghai line, timed to coincide with the Communist Party’s 90th anniversary celebrations.   But even before then, there were signs of trouble on the horizon, starting in February when the powerful head of China’s railway ministry — the project’s godfather — was abruptly fired as part of a massive corruption scandal.  Then a crash on a line near Wenzhou, in which at least 35 people were killed, unleashed a wave of fury on the Chinese internet, forcing the government to re-think the entire project amid charges of cover-up and sloppy construction.  By November, with high-speed trains running at chronically low capacity and construction debts piling up, the railway ministry was asking Beijing for a rumored RMB 800 billion (US$ 126 billion) bailout just to pay the money it owed suppliers.

2.  Inflation.  Few issues preoccupied the average Chinese citizen — or Chinese policymakers — this year as much as rapidly rising prices.   The consumer inflation rate, which began the year just shy of 5%,rose to 6.5% by July.  The increase was led by food prices, particularly pork – a staple part of the Chinese diet — which skyrocketed by more than 50%.  Keenly aware of the potential for popular unrest, Beijing made containing prices its top economic priority — even if that meant reining in growth.  Throughout the year, the central bank repeatedly raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements, in an effort to bring the pace of credit expansion back under control.  The powerful state planning bureau leaned heavily on Chinese companies not to raise prices, and even hit consumer goods giant Unilever with a stiff antitrust fine for publicly discussing possible price hikes.  While CPI did decline to 4.2% by…
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17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

David Rosenberg (the bear) takes a walk on the bullish side and here’s what he finds to be optimistic about. – Ilene 

17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

Bull in bear costume

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Regular readers know I tend to focus on the negative aspects of the markets as opposed to the positives – anyone could put on a smile and skip through oncoming traffic, but the truth is, the investment world can be a very dangerous place so skipping along as if there are no risks involved is beyond foolish.  But ignoring the positives is equally foolish.  In this world of heightened market risks and particularly clear uncertainty here are 17  reasons to consider the bullish case (via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff):

  • Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
  • Polls showing the GoP can take the House and the Senate in November.
  • Some Democrats now want the tax hikes for 2011 to be delayed.
  • Cap and trade is dead.
  • Cameron’s popularity in the U.K. and market reaction there is setting an example for others regarding budgetary reform.
  • China’s success in curbing its property bubble without bursting it.
  • Growing confidence that the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, will be able to ‘decouple’ this time around. We heard this from more than just one CEO on our recent trip to NYC and Asian thumbprints were all over the positive news these past few weeks out of the likes of FedEx and UPS.
  • Renewed stability in Eurozone debt and money markets – including successful bond auctions amongst the Club Med members.
  • Clarity with respect to European bank vulnerability.
  • Signs that consumer credit delinquency rates in the U.S. are rolling over.
  • Mortgage delinquencies down five quarters in a row in California to a three-year low.
  • The BP oil spill moving off the front pages.
  • The financial regulation bill behind us and Goldman deciding to settle –more uncertainty out of the way.
  • Widespread refutation of the ECRI as a leading indicator … even among the architects of the index! There is tremendous conviction now that a double-dip will be averted, even though 85% of the data releases in the past month have come in below expectations.
  • Earnings season living up to expectations, especially among some key large-caps in the tech/industrial space – Microsoft, AT&T, CAT, and 3M are being viewed as game changers (especially 3M’s upped guidance).


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China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

So China sees a potential bubble in stocks and real estate.  That’s funny, I remember saying there was a property bubble in China just a couple of days ago…

Today is one of those days where investors reassess their sector exposure.  The news that China’s economic commanders have just told the banks to cut back on loans may have more of an effect on a US portfolio than many may think.

Hold off on patting yourself on the back for avoiding all those China ADRs that have invaded the IBD Top 100 – plenty of US stocks have doubled over the last year and they certainly didn’t do that because of the make believe recovery here in the States.

China’s decision to slow the train down in terms of stock and property values will have an impact on the velocity of oil companies, infrastructure companies, miners, steel companies, copper companies and even agricultural plays. 

Panic is not the name of the game, analysis is.  You may be surprised to look over your portfolio and notice that a great deal of it is geared toward the growth in emerging markets.  We hit new highs yesterday on the S&P and the last fund flow data I heard showed the first positive net money flow into equities in a long time. 

Translation: everybody’s long.

Whether you believe that this is a hiccup or that China is truly concerned about engineering a soft landing, today may be a good time to get real about what you own and why.  Let’s be honest with ourselves about where our exposure really is, whether our stocks are headquartered in China or not.

Read Also:

Of Course Chinese Real Estate is a Bubble. Grow Up.  (TRB)

 


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New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

No bubble here.  You may need to register with scmp.com to read the entire articles. – Ilene

(Thank you, Terry)

New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

Busy Shanghai street

Mainland banks in Shanghai’s red-hot housing market lent 99.58 billion yuan (HK$113.2 billion) in new mortgages last year, up dramatically from 5.8 billion yuan in 2008, as home seekers rushed to buy and prices hit new highs.

The banks lent 38.93 billion yuan to buyers of new residential properties and 60.65 billion yuan to buyers of second-hand homes, the Shanghai office of the People’s Bank of China said yesterday.

Lending soared more than 1,600 per cent compared with 2008, when the property market and overall economy were hit hard by the global financial crisis, the central bank said.

Full article here.>>

Beofre you start worrying, know this. (Classic Chinese oxymoronic title.)

No sign of bubble despite soaring home prices in Shanghai

Shanghai’s residential market shows no signs of a bubble despite a hefty price increase because demand remains strong, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Price increases "do not mean that the market has reached extreme valuations that typify a bubble", the real estate service firm said in a report yesterday. "Overall, the policy environment will evolve to keep prices from growing too quickly."..

Soaring home prices on the mainland have sparked asset bubble worries among the country’s top leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao who promised to take action.

According to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services, average housing prices in the city jumped 65.3 per cent last month from a year earlier, hitting a record 20,187 yuan (HK$22,930) per square metre.

Shanghai Securities News reported earlier this month that the mainland would probably start imposing property tax in selective cities this year, a heavy-handed move to cool the red-hot housing market…

More here.>>

And rest assured, the non-bubble is going to be curbed.

Mainland to curb lending binge, says chief regulator

Mainland will slow its massive lending spree and step up monitoring of banks as it tries to prevent speculative bubbles in real estate and other assets while keeping the country’s economic recovery on track, a top regulator said on Wednesday.

Mainland’s banking system is healthy despite last year’s explosive growth in credit and regulators could manage the risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission…

After handing out some


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Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

warningCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

I don’t know how much clear it gets than this:

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) — U.S. regulators including the Federal Reserve warned banks to guard against possible losses from an end to low interest rates and reduce exposure or raise capital if needed.

“In the current environment of historically low short-term interest rates, it is important for institutions to have robust processes for measuring and, where necessary, mitigating their exposure to potential increases in interest rates,” the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which includes the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other agencies, said in a statement today.

Let me point out a few things.

  1. We have never seen a crash and rebound in US stock market history like what we have just experienced, except once.  That "once" was 1929/1930.  What followed next was a grueling grind – not a crash, but a grind that never ended, and in which the market lost more than 80% of it’s value.  Those who argue "the bigger the dive the bigger the bounce" forget that the only true comparison against what we have just seen was in fact the prelude to a grinding 90%+ overall decline. 
  2. If you believe in "long wave" cycles – that is, Kondratieff cycles, we have precisely followed the several-hundred-year long pattern though its latest incarnation, with the 1982-2000ish period being "Autumn."  Winter follows fall.  These cycles seem to happen mostly because all (or essentially all) of the people who lived through the last cycle’s horrors are dead.  Unless we have found a way to break a cycle that has endured far longer than our nation, we’re right where we should be – which incidentally aligns with what happened in 1929/30 as well.  This means that while there may be ups and downs we have not bottomed – not by a long shot – no matter what people tell you. 
  3. Interest rates can only go up from zero.  That should be obvious.  Rising rates are not positive for equities and multiple expansion.
  4. The Financials are getting a tremendous bid the last few days, presumably on the premise that "employment is at least somewhat stabilizing."  With zero short rates and a steep yield curve, this means they make


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Zero Hedge

Meanwhile, In Every News Editor's Office Across America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Speaking the unspeakable...

Source: Townhall.com

...

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ValueWalk

Mass Deportations Coming?

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants is brainless, cruel, antagonizing to many allies and neighbors and, ultimately, banal. Mass Deportations  are antithetical to our better natures and to the humane face of America that has made us an exemplar for human rights, a voice for the voiceless and, as Ronald Reagan said, “a shining city on a hill.”

It is American exceptionalism abandoned for petty prejudice.

Mass Deportations

PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay

There is linkage — there always is linkage — between the desecration of the Jewish Chesed Emeth Cemetery in University City, Mo., and those knocks on the door as the men from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) perpetrate the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Le Pen Calls for "Europe of Nations", Blasts EU as "the Problem"

Courtesy of Mish.

Striking back at the nannycrats who want “more Europe” including a “superstate”, French presidential candidate Marine le Pen instead seeks a “Europe of Nations”.

Bloomberg reports Le Pen Says French Foreign Policy Must Be Decided in Paris.

Laying out her foreign-policy vision in a speech in Paris, Le Pen spoke of a world based on nation states that pursue their own interest and preserve their own cultures without interference.

“To assure the freedom of the French, there is no price too high too pay,” Le Pen said. “The foreign policy of France will be decided ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver; Knocking on breakout door again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver and Gold have continued to head lower since highs reached back in 2011. Is the 6-year bear market nearing an end?

Below looks at the Silver/Gold ratio over the past decade. To be long and strong Silver and Gold, the preference would be for this ratio to be heading higher.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The ratio has formed a clean falling channel (series of lower highs and lower lows) inside of (1). Three different times it knocked on the underside of falling...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Sands Batter Major Explorers' Reserves as Rout Sinks Value (Bloomberg)

Oil-sands investments in Western Canada that gobbled tens of billions of dollars over the past decade are proving an Achilles heel for some of the world’s biggest energy producers.

A definitive breakdown of the gloomy state of Wall Street (Business Insider)

Don't be fooled by the strong rebound in Wall Street trading revenues at the end of 2016: Investment banks still had a lousy year.

...



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Chart School

Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today's session. It reversed most of yesterday's gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout


The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off - none of which is happening here.

...

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Digital Currencies

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance of objectivity, and not actually objective, let me give you some background. 

The Obama administration enacted a law known as the Fiduciary Rule, as per Investopedia

The Department of Labor’s definition of a fiduciary demands that advisors act in the best interests of their clients, and to put their clients' interests above their own. It leaves no room for advisors to conce...



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Members' Corner

Lumber Liquidators Leukemia?

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

Phil – LL –   "I can see the ad campaign now: "Our lumber hardly kills you!" 

We Nattered... Today Feb 23, 2016 down -19.5% premarket from $14.21 to $11.27.   

Somebody forgot to convert feet to meters. The CDC said it made an ERROR in the Feb 10th report and had used an incorrect value to calculate ceiling height, which meant its estimates of the airborne concentration of cancer-causing formaldehyde were about three times lower than they should have been. 

Considering myeloid leukemia, some cancers and formaldehyde are linked at the hip, wonder if overexposure had anything to do with the CEO's leukemia?  

LL subsequently went to $19.67 on Sept 30th and has since cooled down to $15....



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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