Posts Tagged ‘property prices’

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box 

One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.

High angle view of glasses of red and white wine

I am in Amsterdam and it is late, but deadlines have no time line. Tomorrow more work on the book. It is getting close to the end. Most books are finished when the authors quit in disgust. How many edits can you do? I am close.

I wonder late at night, with maybe a few too many glasses of wine, why I feel like a book is so much more than an e-letter. Really? The last ten years of what I have written are on the archives. Good (ok, sometimes really good) is there. But some are an embarrassment. What was I thinking?

But somehow in my Old World brain, a book is more than a weekly letter. It is somehow more permanent than an “online” letter. Which may be archived forever. The book is “paper” and may be around for a few years. But the online version is here for a long time.

I know that is stupid. Really I do. But what is a 61 year old mind to do? A strange world we live in.

It is really time to hit the send button. More than you know! The conversation tonight has been too deep!

Your trying to figure out the purpose of life analyst,

John Mauldin


Market still deluding itself that it can escape the inevitable dénouement

By Albert Edwards

The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar…
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China Faces Crash Scenario

China Faces Crash Scenario

Courtesy of Mish

Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real.

Smoking opium, mid 19th


Money Supply Growing Record 29.74%

Please consider China Monthly New Loans Are 294.8 Billion Yuan, Above Forecast

New local-currency loans totaled 294.8 billion yuan ($43.2 billion), compared with 253 billion yuan in October, according to data released by the People’s Bank of China on its Web site today. The median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was 250 billion yuan.

M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose a record 29.74 percent in November from a year earlier.

China’s banking regulator plans to slow new lending to between 7 trillion yuan and 8 trillion yuan next year, a person familiar with the matter said this week. China is trying to ensure that there is enough credit to support an economic recovery without increased risks of bad loans and asset bubbles.

“We believe slower credit growth in 2010 will be key to avoid a boom-bust scenario in the economy,” Wang Tao, a Beijing-based economist for UBS AG, said in a report.

What is China doing with all that printing?

Please take a A 4-Minute Tour of the China Property Bubble to find out.

The world’s largest shopping mall, South China Mall in Guangzhou, China, is almost entirely empty. Click on the link to see a fascinating video.

China Plans To Control Property Prices

Please consider China Can Boost Growth as It Cools Property, Merrill Says.

The government “plans to control property prices by accelerating property investment and increasing supply,” economists Lu Ting and T.J. Bond said in an e-mailed note today. That contrasts with efforts in 2006 to cool prices by controlling investment, the economists said.

China Is Overbuilding Already

Note the insanity. China want to control prices by building more. It already has completely empty shopping centers, condos, and even a completely empty city.

China’s Empty City

That is an amazing video of a completely empty city.

China Has Trouble Maintaining Demand Growth

In spite of obvious speculation and overheating in the housing sector,


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ValueWalk

NZX Stock Pitch

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NZX summary Via Elevation Capital

Seth Klarman: A Bubble Warning From The Past

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
§ NZX operates a monopoly-like business that retains the ability to at least grow in line with GDP; however,
§ The business has suffered from ill discipline over the past five years, with operating margin declining by over 50%, and total
return to shareholders of +22.5% significantly underperforming the NZX50’s +105.1%.
§ While the Agri data and publishing businesses have in the past been strong contributors to profit, the publishing landscape
has changed, and NZX was slow to react;...



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Zero Hedge

Lacy Hunt: The Fed Has Undermined The Economy's Ability To Grow

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Stephen McBride via MauldinEconomics.com

The Fed’s hope was that quantitative easing would stimulate economic growth. But a former senior economist for the Fed believes it has done the exact opposite.

Speaking at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference, Dr. Lacy Hunt, the executive vice president of Hosington Investment Management and former senior economist for the Dallas Fed, said that quantitative easing has created “significant unintended consequences.”

The Worst Expansion in US History

...



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Phil's Favorites

Wholesale and Retail Inventories Rise Led by Autos: Diving Into Seasonal Adjustments

Courtesy of Mish.

On Monday, Census Department data showed durable-goods orders declined 1.1% for the month.

Yet, despite falling sales and a warning from GM, durable goods orders for autos and auto parts rose 1.2% in May. That was on top of a 0.5% gain in April.

The auto mystery continues as today’s advance trade data from the Census Department shows Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% and retail inventories rose 0.6%. The auto-related details were even more interesting.

International Trade in Goods by Category

Auto imports f...



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Insider Scoop

Vetr Crowd Downgrades Snap To 4 Stars

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Since reaching its all-time high in February, Snap Inc (NYSE: SNAP) has traded down all the way down to its $17 IPO price, and the Vetr community has downgraded the stock from 4.5 stars to 4 stars. The company’s first earnings report saw misses on both EPS and revenue estimates.

See how crowdsourced ratings can help predict the market?

Vetr members have given Snap a Buy rating and a $19.38 price target. This price target fairs lower than the $23.08 price target from professional analysts. The stock opened Wednesday around $17.35.

Of all Vetr raters, 62.9 percent believe traders and inve...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Experience Heaviest Loss

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday's losses followed through with fresh declines on higher volume distribution. Worst hit was the Semiconductor Index as it gave up nearly 3%. Today's finish left it at rising channel support and a chance for bulls to mount a rebound. Technicals are net bearish after stochastics undercut the mid-line which suggests a more prolonged trend lower is in the making.


The Nasdaq followed the loss of the 'bull trap' with a breakdown of rising support. This left the index on its 50-day MA which may give b...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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