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Posts Tagged ‘QQQ’

Testy Tuesday – 10% and/or Bust!

How low can we go?  

So far, the Russell is the only index that's gone through a full 10% correction – falling from 1,180 in early September to 1,050 yesterday – actually 11% – so far.  According to our 5% Rule™, if the 10% line is going to hold over the long term, we should hold -12.5% on any additional move down – that would be 1,050 from the 1,200 line.  Let's call that our line in the sand for now

Meanwhile, as I noted in our Live Member Chat room – we're comfortable going long on the Russell Futures (/TF) over the 1,150 line, looking for a nice run back to 1,080 but THRILLED with 1,060 – as that's already +$1,000 per contract!  Failing to get back over 1,060, however, will be a sign that there's likely more downside to come. 

Of course, thanks to the 5% Rule™ and our Big Chart, we knew to get bearish as soon as 1,200 failed on the Russell, way back in July.  In fact, on June 30th, I titled our morning post: "Monday Misgivings – CASH!!! Is King as we Begin Q3" saying:

I'm NOT going to depress you.

If you want to be depressed about the market, check out my Twitter Account, where I posted our Morning Alert to Philstockworld Members (and you can become one of those HERE) in which I aired my concerns with the Global Macros.  

Last week we discussed the various forms of market manipulation that are keeping us at record highs and, on Friday, I asked "How Many Countries are Faking Economic Data?"


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Non-Farm Friday – Will Jobs Report Restore Market Confidence?

Ouch, that really stings!  

They say you can't keep a good market down but it remains to be seen whether or not we have a good market with almost all of August and September's BS gains (see any of my posts for warnings and hedge ideaserased just 3 days into October.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Russell, in particular, completed it's 10% drop yesterday and, as I said to our Members in yesterday's live Chat Room as we neared the bottom:

/TF/Jasu – Just a bit oversold and, as noted yesterday (and above) it's completing a 10% drop from 1,200 at 1,080, so that's a very firm line for a bounce and that's 20% of a 120-point drop, so we're looking for 25-point bounces to 1,105 (weak) and 1,130 (strong) now.  Anything less than 1,105 today is a failure and, if not tomorrow, then expect more downside next week.  

SPY DAILY/TF is the Futures on the Russell 2000 index and already this morning we're back to 1,097, which is up $1,700 per contract (see how easy this is?) from our 1,080 entry and just a little shy of our expected weak bounce.  

We do expect resistance at 1,100 so this is a good time to take profits off the table and we can go long again over that line or flip to the S&P Futures (/ES) over 1,950 or Nasdaq (/NQ) over 4,000 or the Dow (/YM) over 16,800.  As long as they are all performing, we can be confident on the long side. 

As we discussed with our Members earlier this morning, there's no particular reason to get bullish – this is just a technical bounce we expect off our 5% lines per our 5% Rule™ and, if they trun out to be weak bounces, then we can expect another 2.5-5% of downside next week.  That means we can use those same index lines to go short if they fail as we would to go long if they succeed this morning – that will be all up to the Non-Farm Payroll Report at
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Testy Tuesday – Dressing the Windows at our Bounce Lines

First, the big news:

EBAY has finally agreed to spin off PayPal and that's going to give us a nice boost in our Income Portfolio (which we fortunately just adjusted more aggressive yesterday) and EBAY has been on our Buy List (Members Only) since 5/20, when they were testing $50 and, as I said to our Members when I predicted an earnings beat in July:

Paypal, Paypal and Paypal.  They should beat the .68 expectations (.63 last year) and all of last year they traded in the $50s, so why should they be below it now when they are making $3 a year (p/e 16.7)?  Compared to the rest of the market, this thing is a real bargain!  

They beat by a penny and, as you can see from the chart, that was enough to kick them up 10% and we recently got a nice re-entry at $50, when we took advantage of the spike down to sell more 2016 $50 puts for $5.50 which were up 15% at $4.80 at yesterday's close – not bad for a month's work and they should be up 30% by the end of today!  

Today we will see an all-out effort to keep the markets afloat so the books on Q3 can be spun positive by the Banksters, who have Trillions of Dollars riding on the outcome.  

Of course, we KNOW that no Bankster would ever attempt to manipulate the Market, or LIBOR, or Currencies, or Ratings…  Well, not if they knew for a fact they would get caught AND the punishment was more than a slap on the wrist, anyway.  Thank goodness, that never happens.

As you can see from our Big Chart, the S&P came to a rest right on the 50 dma at 1,977 so that's the do or die line for the day while it's 4,495 on the Nasdaq.  On the Dow we want to see 17,100 taken back and the NYSE needs to hold 10,750 while the poor, beleagured Russell just needs to hold that 1,110 line.  Officially, our bounce lines remain:

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Technical Tuesday – Rejected, Rejected, Rejected!

So much for 2,000 holding.

Fortunately, our Big Chart kept us cautiously bearish into the weekend and the hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio functioned perfectly, gaining $13,000 on the day and completely offsetting the drop of $8,000 in our Long-Term Portfolio. 

That's without our big hedge, DXD, kicking in yet, as the Dow is still over 17,000 but, should it fail, we'll see those STP gains multiply quickly.  

For those of you who are not Members, and don't have access to our various Member Portfolios (and you can by subscribing here), we have done our best to prepare you for this drop as well.  Last Thursday, right in the morning post, I shared our short stance with the general public, saying

It's going to be crazy into the weekend but, in our Live Chat Room this morning, I said to our Members:

Futures pumped back up to yesterday's highs at 17,125, 2,001.50, 4,080 and 1,156.5 so I like shorting below 17,100, 2,000, 4,075 and 1,155 – short the laggard, out of any of them cross back over – very simple! 

That's our plan into the weekend.  As I've mentioned before, we're also using DXD ($24 at the time), TZA ($14.68) and SQQQ ($35.26) to hedge our long portfolios – just in case things unravel over the weekend.  We also discussed FXI ($40.30) puts earlier in the week as a play on China melting down so PLENTY of ways to profit from the downside.

INDU DAILYThis morning, the Futures are 17,050 on /YM (up $375 per contract), 1,979 on /ES (up $1,125 per contract), 4,035 on /NQ (up $900 per contract) and 1,116.50 on /TF (up $4,000 per contract) – so that strategy went pretty well.

In last Wednesday's post, we also shorted Oil Futures at $95 and oil fell to $91 yesterday – up $4,000 per contract in
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Wow, what a recovery!  

And wow, what complete and utter BS it is.  They NYSE is still below 11,000 (our Must Hold line) and the Russell is still below it's 50 dma and we up on less than 10% of the volume (total) that sold off for the last two weeks.  But, who cares as long as it paints a pretty picture?  

We can thank the Wall Street Journal's Fed Whisperer, John Hilsenrath with yesterday's rally as he wrote not one but TWO  articles that whipped traders into a frenzy on his "insider view" that the Fed "may keep the words "considerable time" in its policy statement."  Oh, be still my heart!  More free money?  Really?  Will wonders never cease?  

Needless to say we took the opportunity to re-short the Dow Futures (/YM) at 17,050 and the S&P Futures (/ES) at 1,993 and the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 4,060 and the Nikkei Futures (/NKD) at 15,950 – all of which we discussed in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar that was, sadly, a Members only affair (but you can join us here).  

We also got a chance to short oil at $95 again (a level I published in yesterday's post) and we're thrilled with that and already this morning, it's back at $94.50 for $500 per contract gains.  For non-futures players we grabbed the SCO Sept $30s at .25 as a fun play that inventories at 10:30 won't support $95 oil in much the way Fed policies at 2pm won't support these market levels.  In fact, here's CNBC's Art Cashin telling you yesterday at noon what I told you pre-market, yesterday morning – BRILLIANT!  

Art's actually one of the very few Wall Street analysts I respect (and not just because he repeats what I say), I've followed him since I was a kid – he's a fantastic guy and a lot of what I share with you – I learned from him.  As you can see on the Big Chart, the Russell is the laggard and, if the indexes break higher – it's the index we'll go long on but our short bets (TZA) have
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Which Way Wednesday – How Low Can We Go?

INDU DAILYWhat a fun market to play!  

Yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room (you can subscribe here), at 11:13, in anticipation of a wierd day, I put up a bullish and a bearish trade idea for our Members.  The cool thing is, both sides won!  Our two trade ideas (which we went over in our Live Webcast at 1pm) were:

If you want to play for an AAPL pop this afternoon, the QQQ weekly $100 calls are just .40 and QQQ topped out at $100.33 yesterday.  Figure AAPL pops 2.5% and that pops the Nas and QQQ 0.5% so $100.50 + premium could be good for 50% if AAPL gets a good reaction – if not, it's probably going to lose less than a direct play on AAPL would. 

TZA/Sn0 – Well TZA is only at $14.50 so the spread is half in the money at net $1.25 so it still has good upside if you add to it but I'd rather get the Jan $15/20 bull call spread at $1 as that gives you more time and more upside – if your TZA hedge goes in the money.  That way, you can take $2 off the table on the Oct spread and know you still have plenty of upside if TZA keeps going up on you and also less downside exposure if it flips the other way.  

When our 1pm Webinar started (at the same time Apple's conference started), the QQQ calls were just 0.42 and still playable and, as you can see on the chart, we even had a dip down to 0.30 briefly but that line held and we then jumped 100% back to 0.60 and then on to 0.72 before dropping back to 0.60, where we took our expected 50% gains and ran.  

If you missed our Webcast yesterday, you should check out the replay because we discussed WHY we made that particular pick and HOW we selected it – very educational!  That's because, at Philstockworld, our goal is to TEACH you to be a great trader – not just give you great trades.  


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TGIF – Stop the Market, We Want to Get Off!

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!  

What fun this is!  Well, it's fun for us because we were playing for this drop and not only did our bearish Short-Term Portfolio pop 10% yesterday but our bullish Long-Term Portfolio crossed over the 20% line for the first time this year.  How is that possible?  Because we are using our "Be the House – Not the Gambler" strategy to SELL premium to suckers who think they know what the market is going to do!

This allows us to make money in any market direction while remaining well-hedged for the downturns. It also allows us to put up these spectacular gains while using less than 50% of our cash – keeping it on the sidelines and ready to deploy when we catch a good bargain on one of our Buy Lists to add to our virtual portfolios.  We had not one but two special Live Trading Webinars yesterday for our Members, where we cashed out the XOM puts I mentioned FOR FREE last Friday for a 300% gain.  

If you want to get our morning posts delivered to you each day, in progress, at 8:30 each day with access to the full posts pre-market – just sign up right here.  

Last Friday I also suggested our SCO (ultra-short oil) longs and that $1,200 position in our Short-Term Portfolio closed yesterday at $3,400 – up a very nice 183% and the SQQQ trade I aslo put up in last Friday's morning post for a net $400 credit (also featured on TV on this Wednesday's Money Show) finished yesterday's session at $1,060 – up $1,400 (350%) in less than a week!   

Another hedge we discussed were the TZA Aug $14 calls which were $1.67 on Wednesday (more FREE picks in the morning post), which was already up 153% from 0.66 when I first mentioned them (outside of our Live Member Chat Room) in our July 8th post.  As of yesterday's close, they were $2.51 – up 50% from Wednesday and up 280% overall.

The 20 calls we picked as a hedge on July 8th for $1,320, jumped to…
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$1,000 Friday – Yesterday’s Oil Trade Gives Everyone a Great Weekend!

Congratulations!  

If you read yesterday's post and took action on our trade idea to short Oil Futures (/CL) at the $103 line, then you were able to pocket $1,000 PER CONTRACT in just 3 hours.  In the Morning post (delivered to our Members via Email at 8:35 am), the trade idea was:

"We're still shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at that $103 line and we hit it again this morning and, hopefully, we'll get a nice pullback around 10:30 – after the natural gas report shows a nice build."

That's about on par for our Futures trading as we demonstrated LIVE in Tuesday's Live Trading Webinar $300 of Futures profits in less than an hour (replay available here).  We'll be doing more Futures Webinars for our Members aside from our usual Tuesday Live Trading Webcasts (sign up for your Membership here so you don't miss our trade ideas).  

How to trade the Futures is one of the many things we learn at Philstockworld – another thing is PATIENCE!  Patience has kept us from chasing this rally as we once again top out the market.  On Tuesday we took a nice, speculative bullish trade (but did not officially add it to our Portfolios) - just in case we do have a breakout – but, otherwise, we've been working on our downside protection. 

We are FUNDAMENTAL traders who just so happen to use Options and Futures for leverage and hedging – simply because they are convenient and profitable instruments when used correctly.  What we teach is not all that complicated – but it isn't easy either.  That's why not many people trade Options and Futures – it requires discipline and takes time and practice to master – not really the kind of thing our education system prepares our students for these days….

YOU, however, should not be intimidated away from making money.  Our basic concepts are VERY SIMPLE and the concepts are explained in quick videos like "How To Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount" and "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns" – something we are demonstrating this year in the 5 Virtual Portfolios we track for our Members.  

Back on December 7th, for…
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Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Fall Down Thursday – Buy the Dips?

$2,000!  

That's how much money yesterday's Alert to Members made as of this morning as the Russell Futures crossed our goal line at 1,150.  The alert went out at 9:52 am and we had all day to enter as the Russell drifted along that line until, finally, we got our big drop this morning.  

My call in the morning was:

I still like the /TF play below the 1,170 line – that's got $2,000 written all over it (down to 1,150).

RUT WEEKLYWe actually oveshot that mark with the bottom coming at 1,140, which is our -5% line on the Big Chart, which uses our 5% Rule™ to make these amazingly profitable predictions.  Those extra 10 points were ANOTHER $1,000 per contract for those who hung on past our goaaaaalllllll!!!

Even if you are a free reader, you got your money's worth – as we gave away, FOR FREE, our TZA Aug $14 calls at .91 on Tuesday's post.  Sure it was 50% after our Members got the trade at .66 on July 3rd, but beggers can't be choosers, right?  Still, even if you only began following our hedge at .91, those calls are now $1.50 in the money, so up another 50% this morning for a $1,180 profit on the 20 we suggested in just two days!

That's just one of the many ways we teach our Members to make money by hedging at PSW (you can subcribe here) we expected this sell-off (see last two week's worth of posts) and positioned for it with trades like:

  • DXD Aug $25/27 bull call spread (6/27 in main post) at net 0.60, now $1.15 – up 91% 
  • TZA Aug $15s calls (6/27 at 11:26) at .70, selling Jan $12 puts for $1 for net .30 credit, now 0.45 – up .75 (250%)
  • 40 SQQQ Aug $40/44 bull call spreads (1/3 at 11:29) at $1.15 ($4,600), now $2.15 – up $4,000 (86%)
  • 20 QQQ July $97 puts (1/7 at 9:35)  at $1.59 ($3,180), now $3 ($6,000) – up $2,820 (88%)


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Zero Hedge

"It's A Coup D'Etat," David Stockman Warns "Central Banks Are Out Of Control"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We're all about to be taken to the woodshed, warns David Stockman in this excellent interview. The huge wealth disparity is "not because of some flaw in capitalism, or Reagan tax cuts, or even the greed of Wall Street; the problem is central banks that are out of control." Simply put, they have "syphoned financial resources into pure gambling" and the people that own the stocks and bonds get the huge financial windfall. "The 10% at the top own 85% of the financial assets," and thus, thanks to the unleashing of almost limitless money-printing, which has created a massive worldwide financial...



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Phil's Favorites

Three and a half years since the last 10% correction

If the S&P 500 does not have a 5% correction this year, it will be the first time in 20 years. And it's been 3.6 years since the last 10% correction. And trailing and forward PEs are relatively high. In the low interest rate environment, higher-than-normal stock prices are the new normal, but how much higher? And should we expect a reset with the Fed's plans to ease the interest rate higher?

Three and a half years since the last 10% correction

Courtesy of 

Deutsche Bank is out with a piece of research this weekend mentioning the fact that the S&P 500 has just broken a record high thanks to a median trailing PE ratio of over 18 – the highest we’ve seen since...



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Chart School

eToro Review

Courtesy of Declan.

763 followers 76 copiers A solid jump in both followers and copiers from the start of the month. This was in large part to my top-10 ranking in their People screener. Having said that, last week finished very poorly for me. Overtraded and wa...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar & Crude Oil reversing ST trends, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar and Crude Oil have been have had little correlation over the past year, as each has traded in pretty much opposite directions.

Over the past 9 months King Dollar has had a historical rally and the opposite is true for Crude Oil.

Of late Crude hit its 23% Fibonacci resistance line, based upon last summers weekly closing highs and weekly closing low on 3/13/15.

Joe Friday just the facts….Crude oil is making an attempt to break short-term steep rising support this week and King Dollar is attempting to break short-term steep falling resistance.

Crude oil just experienced its 7th largest 2-month rally in its...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 18th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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