Posts Tagged ‘rally’

MARKETS DEFY GRAVITY

By Surly Trader

Since the beginning of December, the S&P 500 has yet to meaningfully break down below its 10 day moving average.  We just like to blissfully crank upwards in valuations.  The Dow has hit its momentous 12,000 level and the S&P was inches away from 1,300.  Now that we have touched our psychological targets, maybe it is time we reassess how enthusiastic we have gotten.  Instead of looking at P/E ratios on 2011 earnings forecasts, I have seen more and more analysts consider 2012 and 2013 forecasts…

I guess our 10 day moving average is a fixed positive slope

When it comes to the lesser of investment evils, it certainly still looks like equities are more attractive than bonds.  The issue that I have is that most investors have set aside the significant tail risks that are out there.  Not to belabor the point, but there is still significant risk in the Eurozone.  Equity markets have ignored it, as well as concerns with local municipalities and states.  These risks are real and will take quite a long time to resolve.  While the VIX sits around 16 and realized volatility hovers near six year lows, we need to understand that risk flares come quickly and unexpectedly and there are plenty of issues that could precipitate are run.

The default spreads on the PIGS do not appear resolved to me so why is the Euro rallying?

I do not like to be negative, but it does get tiring when the arguments switch so fiercely from bearish to bullish stances.  It seems to be the psychology of not wanting to be miss out when the market is rallying or not wanting to be the last one in when the market is tanking.  Feast or Famine, no in-between.


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Why this market rally will end in tears

By David Rosenberg, The Globe and Mail

Most investors see only the recent returns; they do not see the nearly invisible risks. But the risks are there. I recall all too well the 2003-07 bear market rally – yes, that is what it was. It was no long-term bull run such as 1949-1966 or 1982-2000. It was a classic bear market rally, and it ended in tears because what drove the market upward was phony wealth generated by a non-productive asset called housing alongside widespread financial engineering, which triggered a wave of artificial paper profits.

Remember, returns only count if they aren’t ultimately reversed by excessive greed. Right now, I believe clients are well served by equity strategies that focus on stocks of high quality companies and by investments in both hard assets and income-producing securities. Also good are long-short strategies (vital in controlling risk in the portfolio) and a concentration on fixed-income products (outside of commodities, deflation in the developed world remains the primary trend – against such a backdrop, searching for yield makes perfect sense).

As far as equities are concerned, the current bear market rally is likely at the very late stage. Few people will know to get out at the peak and as we saw in late 2007 and into 2008, many investors will be trapped in a falling market. Bear market rallies are not the same as secular, or long-term, bull markets – the former are to be rented, the latter are to be owned.

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Pic credit: Benjamin Miller at FreeStockPhotos.biz


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Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

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Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

Daily ETF and Stock Market Outlook from John Nnyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral
Short Term Trend: Neutral

Today major indexes saw yet another failed rally at major resistance in spite of all the euphoria over the weekend’s G20 meeting communiqué that was widely seen as a license for the United States to continue trashing its currency and so support “risk on” assets. 

As everyone knows by now, a declining dollar has meant a rising stock and commodity market, but today the dollar declined and the equities markets were unable to hold onto meaningful gains. 

It increasingly appears that the major factor keeping the market afloat is the anticipated Federal Reserve quantitative easing at its meeting next week with a secondary factor being the notion that the Republicans will reclaim at least the House of Representatives in next week’s election. 

It also increasingly appears that both of these events very likely have already been discounted by the market and that market participants could be “selling on the news,” as so often happens. 

Overall, this looks more like a top than a bottom when you add up declining breadth and participation by individual stocks, overly bullish investor euphoria and a market that appears to be more sustained by government intervention and support than fundamentals and improving sales and earnings. 

The next week will be pivotal on both a technical and fundamental basis.  Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the ‘red flag’ mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Wall Street Sector Selector holds various inverse ETF positions and positions can change at any time.


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THE MARKET IS FACING HEADWINDS

THE MARKET IS FACING HEADWINDS

Two businessmen kneeling on pavement, grabbing paper blowing in wind

Courtesy of Comstock Partners

(H/t Pragcap) 

The current market rally is not based on a self-sustained typical economic recovery, but on blind faith that the Fed can pull out a magic wand and cure everything with another round of quantitative easing (QE2).  As we pointed out last week, this a desperate attempt by the Fed to try non-conventional means to get the economy going again after a massive dose of conventional measures resulted in failure.  The members of the FOMC know this, but with further fiscal measures off the table, they are aware that they are the only game in town.  The Fed’s acknowledgement that the economy is in trouble is again highlighted by the latest Beige Book released yesterday.  The following are some excerpts from the report:

“National economic activity continued to rise, albeit at a modest pace..consumer spending was steady to up slightly, but consumers remained price-sensitive, and purchases were mostly limited to necessities and non-discretionary items..Housing markets remained weak..Most reports suggested overall home sales were sluggish or declining..Home inventories were elevated or rising..Conditions in the commercial real estate market were subdued, and construction was expected to remain weak.Reports suggested that rental rates continued to decline for most commercial property types..industry contacts appeared to believe that the commercial real estate and construction sectors would remain weak for some time..Hiring remained limited, with many firms reluctant to add to permanent payrolls, given economic softness..Future capital spending plans appeared to be limited”

So there you have an outline of the anemic economic picture in the Fed’s own words.  To be sure, they indicated some strong points as well.   But the weakness in consumer spending, housing, capital expenditures, commercial real estate and employment pretty much accounts for some 85% of the overall economy.

In addition some of the major problems that worried the market earlier have not really gone away.  The sovereign debt problems of the weaker EU nations have been papered over without being solved and are still lingering just beneath the surface.  The looming currency wars that were shoved down the road by the recent G-20 meeting are also a major threat to the global economy.

Furthermore the Chinese housing bubble previously highlighted by bearish investor Jim Chanos and others has now appeared on the front page of the New York Times.  A new district of the city of Ordos,…
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Drunken Horses and Drunken Horses’ Asses in Academic Wonderland

Drunken Horses and Drunken Horses’ Asses in Academic Wonderland

Courtesy of Mish

The stock market and commodities are rallying once again over the upcoming QE announcement. Every bit of news, no matter how trivial, supportive of what everyone already knows (that QE is coming), gets market participants get more excited every time.

Will the actual announcement of what we all know result in the biggest sell-the-news event since the Fed’s interest rate cut in January of 2001?

While pondering that, please consider Fed Minutes Lend Weight to Stimulus

The minutes of the Sept. 21 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee indicated that several officials “consider it appropriate to take action soon,” given persistently high unemployment and uncomfortably low inflation.

Now, with unemployment near 10 percent and with inflation well below the Fed’s unofficial goal of nearly 2 percent, the Fed is considering renewed intervention: creating money to buy long-term Treasury debt. That would put additional downward pressure on long-term rates, making credit even cheaper.

Former Fed officials interviewed on Tuesday appeared to be just as divided as the current ones.

“If you lead the horse to water and it won’t drink, just keep adding water and maybe even spike it,” said Robert D. McTeer, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 1991 to 2005 and is a well-known inflation “dove,” particularly attuned to the harm of joblessness. “You definitely don’t want to take the water away.”

H. Robert Heller, a Fed governor from 1986 to 1989, had the opposite view, urging the Fed to show restraint.

“I would do nothing,” he said, expressing concern that the Fed might appear to be “monetizing the debt,” or printing money to make it easier for the government to borrow and spend.

“If they start to monetize the federal debt, they will dig themselves a much deeper hole later on,” he said. “That’s what we learned from the 1970s, when the Fed undertook a very expansionary monetary policy. It took a double recession in the early 1980s to wring inflation out of the economy. We don’t want to repeat that.”

William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, recently raised the possibility that inflation could be allowed to run above the implicit target for some time in the future, to make up for inflation today being lower than desired. That could


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IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

Courtesy of Pragcap

David Tepper says you can’t go wrong buying equities here. The market certainly appears to be in full agreement as stocks have rallied in 12 of the last 18 sessions for a total of 10.4%. This is becoming reminiscent of the April rally when the macro risks appeared abundant and yet equity investors ignored the risks and continued to pile into stocks recklessly.  As I was building my first sizable short position in over a year I often referred to this as the “can’t lose market” earlier this year.  Of course, we all know how that ended – a 20% decline and a flash crash later and every one of the April stock market bulls was discussing the probability of a double dip. Then, just when everyone appeared most fearful, stocks flipped on the bull switch in early September.  That bearish sentiment has cleared and now everyone is bullish and sees no risks on the horizon. Futures this evening are ready to stage another nice bull move.  Is the “can’t lose market” back?  More importantly, how long does this irrational move last before the herd is once again caught on the wrong side of the trade?


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Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry

Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

It is no longer fun being a hedge fund manager – first, up until the recent POMO-based rally in stocks, HFs were down for the year, and what is far worse, they were underperforming the broader market – a death sentence for pretty much every hedge fund, as this is proof a fund can not extract alpha and thus has no reason to collect 2 and 20. While the recent ramp in the market is welcome by all bulls, the question remains just how leveraged into the latest beta rally hedge funds have been. If after the nearly 10% rise in the past 2 weeks any individual HFs are still underperforming the market, it is a near certain "lights out."

To everyone else: congratulations – you just bought yourself another three months of breathing room. Better hope the Fed makes good on its QE promises one day soon. In the meantime, Bloomberg Matthew Lynn and Ecclectica’s Hugh Hendry both confirm that in these days of instantaneous liquidity demands, and cheap strategy replicators in the form of ETFs which provide the same beta capture as hedge funds, at a fraction of the price, it is only going to get worse and worse for the once high flying community. In fact, Hugh Hendry goes as far as suggesting that 10 years from now 80% of all hedge funds will be gone. Our personal view is that the target will be reached in a far shorter time frame.

On one hand, Matthew Lynn shows the uphill climb that defenders of the hedge fund industry have to pass in recent days. "An industry that doesn’t know how to defend itself, and has forgotten how to justify its existence, is in crisis. Hedge funds are now in that position." Hilariously, Lynn shows that hedge funds uses that good old staple used by HFTs to defend their own piracy ways and means: providing liquidity.

On both sides of the Atlantic, hedge funds have been busy trying to hold their own against the tide of fresh regulations sweeping through capital markets.

The Washington-based Managed Funds Association, the U.S. hedge-fund industry’s biggest trade group, has been campaigning against proposed curbs on high-frequency trading. That would, it says, reduce liquidity


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Price Before Volume – Don’t Get It Twisted

Joshua argues that we don’t need volume to confirm a stock market breakout. – Ilene 

Price Before Volume – Don’t Get It Twisted

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Here’s a composite quote that could come from the market strategist of virtually any major firm, I’m certain you’ve read something like this over the last few days:

"The stock market is nearing overhead resistance, a punch through would be a positive catalyst only if volume picks up before or during the breakout."

- Any Chief Market Strategist, Any Firm USA

Wrong!

Price rules in this environment.  Volume is completely and totally irrelevant until about 5 to 7% afterthe breakout.

The breakout could come with only 60% of normal volume and be just as meaningful.  In counter-distinction to the conventional wisdom, I would argue that a low volume breakout would actually bepreferable right now.  Here’s how I arrive at this idea…

Nobody is in.  Nobody.  We’ve documented the equity fund outflows ad nauseum, they are bigger than Precious after Thanksgiving dinner.  Fine.  The question becomes, what can we agree is the more motivating condition for investor psychology right at this moment, Fear or Greed?

The answer is undoubtedly Fear.  How else to explain the endless Treasury rally and the full scale retreat from equities?  Fear is the conductor of this train right now, period, end of story.  With that in mind, I ask you to think about the one thing that American investors fear more than anything else – the fear of missing out on the big opportunity.

Nothing freaks out the average investor more than watching the train leaving the station without them.  I could put up 75 charts showing parabolic blow-off tops in various markets or I could just remind you that I’ve worked with over 1000 individual investors over the years and I know this stuff.

Fear of missing out is exactly why a stealth rally in stocks with low participation would be more meaningful and bullish than almost any other scenario.  What could possibly draw hundreds of billions out of money markets faster than a 5% S&P rally that no one was a part of?

So please, stop regurgitating the "we need real volume" pablum, it is functionally backwards.  What we need are higher prices, the lower the participation the better.  That’s the kind of milkshake…
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Daily Market Commentary: Strong Gains

Fallond Stock Picks liking the rally… – Ilene 

Daily Market Commentary: Strong Gains

The week started with morning gaps which held and pushed on with a close that marked the day’s highs. These gaps in themselves may prove to be measuring gaps, which sets a positive tone for the next couple of weeks ahead. The S&P even managed to break its 200-day MA, leaving August highs as the next target. 

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq similarly pushed beyond its 200-day MA and did so on higher volume accumulation. There is a case for a break of the three-and-a-half month consolidation too. 

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The Russell 2000 also managed to clear resistance with a gap and break of 200-day MA; June-July reaction highs are next.

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq 100 went a step further and closed above the August reaction high (a very positive development)

($NDX)

via StockCharts.com

Even the semiconductors offered potential by re-engaging the bear trap; a close above 331 (just 4 points away) will confirm. 

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

So, a very positive day to follow a positive Friday. The concerns from Thursday’s bearish black candlesticks have been eliminated and there is a good chance this is the start of another 1-2 weeks of gains.  

 


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Squeezing the lemon – risk appetite being sucked higher

Squeezing the lemon – risk appetite being sucked higher

Courtesy of Rohan at Data Diary

Risk appetite has been ticking higher this past week. The price action in isolation looks pretty positive. The question that is troubling the synapses is whether equity markets are poised to thrust higher once more – egged on by the monetary cattleprod of the US and a seeming stabilisation in China’s growth dynamics.

Risk appetite index 500x291 RISK APPETITE BEING SUCKED HIGHER

Certainly the penultimate rejection of the S&P500 off 1040 set the scene for a short squeeze of material proportions. Given the ramp up in volumes that accompanied the selloff from the April highs, it’d be reasonable to expect that there’d be a block of nervous ‘shorts’ at levels not too far from here. It’ll be interesting to see what the tea-leaves say about who sold/bought in the Flow of Funds data next week, but the 1130 level is looking like a pretty tasty target.

US equities price and volume 500x303 RISK APPETITE BEING SUCKED HIGHER

For the moment, it’s probably wise to respect the price action. It’s a reasonable probability that we run through 1130 while under the influence of that big can of nitrous oxide. With declining participation, any buyers ‘on the break’ will be that much easier to suck in. Witness the ever vanishing activity in CBOE equity options.

Equity option volumes 500x293 RISK APPETITE BEING SUCKED HIGHER

Still my read of the bigger picture has this run-up as a position driven head fake.  Momentum has turned lower since the April high that marked the exhaustion point for global stimulus mark I. It’s looking increasingly unlikely that successive rounds of government intervention will be as wildly successful as the first. While the leading indicators are tracking lower, so will the market.

The other factor tugging at the market’s tail is that the logic for risk spreads to widen remains compelling. The Fed may be the fat kid sitting on the longer end of the Treasuries market, but ultimately the other end of the risk plank can’t join in as the economic malaise works its way through earnings forecasts and default probabilities. This rally should meet its maker over the next couple of weeks – just a matter of whether it can convince him that all those calories can’t be good for you.


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Zero Hedge

The Real Reason Why Global Elites Are Implementing a Cash Ban

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Those who think the War on Cash is a new phenomenon are missing the Big Picture.

The War on Cash has been unfolding since at least 2013 if not earlier. And it’s not really a War on Cash… it’s a desperate attempt to prop up failing financial institutions.

Let’s wind back the clocks…

Back in 2013, the small European country of Cyprus implemented a “bail-in.”

This means that the bank STOLE savings (cash) from depositors, to shore up its balance sheet.

You see your cash, the money you keep at a bank, is considered a “liability...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC, Russia see smooth road to global deal on output cut (Reuters)

Russia and Saudi Arabia said they expect OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reach an agreement on Saturday to curtail oil output and prop up prices in the first such joint move since 2001.

OPEC, Russian Oil Cut Deal Pushes Up Asian Natural Gas Prices (Forbes)

The OPEC agreement reached last week to cut oil output by 1.2 million b/d (removing around 1% ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold could blast off, if this resistance cluster holds!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years. When the ratio is heading lower, US$ is weaker than Gold/Gold stronger than US$. When the ratio is heading higher, US$ is stronger than Gold/Gold weaker than the US$

At this time, the ratio in the chart below, has created a Power of the Pattern setup, that is seldom if ever seen.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A rare cluster of resistance is in play for the US$/Gold ratio at (1...



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ValueWalk

Is Pakistan And Russia's 'Friendship' A Big Myth?

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Russia is solidifying its support for Pakistan at the Heart of Asia conference. Russian envoy Zamir Kabulov rejected India and Afghanistan’s criticisms of Pakistan. In what serves as a yet another indication that the ice between Moscow and Islamabad are melting, Kabulov praised Pakistani Foreign Affairs Advisor Sartaj Aziz’s speech at the HoA conference for being friendly and constructive.

Image: Pakistan, Russia Flags

Saying that it’s wrong to criticize Islamabad, the Russian envoy urged the parties to drop the blame game and start working together. Kabulov also downplayed Russia’s joint milita...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At A Party?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, it's "Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo", so we follow up on Second Hand Stink with How to Poop At A Party. 

This hilarious video demonstrates how to control the Shituation when needing to Poopulate at a gathering, in no uncertain terms. 

We hope this recurring bathroom humor theme "shits" well with our readers. So please do relax, drop the cursor below, click and enjoy.

...

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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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