Posts Tagged ‘resources’

The Overlapping Crises of Neoliberal Global Capitalism

The Overlapping Crises of Neoliberal Global Capitalism

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

Conventional wisdom holds that today's global financial crises are political rather than systemic to Neoliberal Global State Capitalism.

It is tempting to place the blame for the U.S. economy's deep woes at the feet of our corrupt, captured political system of governance and those who captured it via concentrated wealth and power. But that would avoid looking at the crises unfolding in global capitalism itself.

From the "progressive" ideology, the "problem" is inequality of income and wealth, and the "solution" is to take more of the wealth and income away from "the rich" (i.e. those who make more than I do) and redistribute to the "have-less" citizenry.

From the "conservative" ideology, the "problem" is that the Central State, in cahoots with public unions and Corporate Overlords, grabs an ever-larger share of the national income to redistribute to reward its cronies and favorites. In so doing, it mis-allocates the nation's capital away from productive investments and strangles free enterprise, the only real engine of wealth.

There is of course a grain of truth in each point of view. As I describe in Survival+, there is a positive feedback in the process of concentrating wealth and thus political power: the more wealth one acquires, themore political influence one can purchase, which then enables the accumulation of even more wealth as the State/Elite partnership showers benefits and monoplies on those who fund elections, i.e. the wealthy.

This process eventually leads to over-reach, when the nation's capital and income are so concentrated that the economy become precariously imbalanced and thus vulernerable to devolution and collapse. Returns on favoritism and capital become marginal, and it take more complexity and capital to wring ever-smaller profits and power from ever-greater investments.

It is also true that the State and the Power Elites mask their massive redistribution to the wealthy and powerful behind politically popular redistributions to the lower-income and/or unproductive citizenry, garnering their loyalty and complicity.

It is also true that as the State and its private-sector Elites channel an ever-larger percentage of the national income to the Central State and its fiefdoms, both public and private, then the productive…
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Gammon’s Black Holes

All signs indicate Gammon’s Black Holes are about to get bigger… – Ilene

Gammon’s Black Holes

Courtesy of Eric Falkenstein of Falkenblog

In 1968, the poverty rate in the US was 12.8%. Since then, we have introduced or vastly expanded the following:

Black Hole

food stamps
job training courses
community development block grants
urban redevelopment schemes
medicaid
aid to families with dependent children (AFDC)
social security disability income
section 8 housing grants
emergency assistance to needy families with children
college scholarship aid
free and reduced price lunches
child care
housing projects
head start

Currently, the poverty rate is around 12.3%. More importantly, most of our cities have become unlivable, so that most college-educated families simply do not live within the city borders of Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Newark, etc. More programs, worse results.

Dr. Max Gammon was a British physician who noticed that although government spent significantly more on health care than it had previously in the 1960s, the National Health Service didn’t seem any better for it. After an extensive study of the British system of socialized medicine, Gammon formulated his law: "In a bureaucratic system, increase in expenditure will be matched by fall in production…such systems will act rather like ‘black holes,’ in the economic universe, simultaneously sucking in resources, and shrinking in terms of emitted production."

 


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Running Out

Running Out

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at When Giants Fall

Out of the large universe of so-called experts, there are only a relative few, as I noted in a post at Financial Armageddon, worth paying attention to. One of those individuals is Jeremy Grantham, chairman and co-founder of global investment firm GMO, who I don’t always agree with, but whose opinions I have always respected. In fact, I’ve noted his insights on several occasions — see "For Some, a Total Loss," "Give ‘Em Enough Hope…," "Another Permabear Who Doesn’t Know What He Is Talking About?" and "Words from the Wise" — but I haven’t really strayed to far outside the realm of financial markets and economics. Now, though, Mr. Grantham is out with his latest quarterly newsletter, and it includes a section (excerpted below), entitled "Initial Report: Running Out Of Resources," about a somewhat broader theme that features prominently in my new book, When Giants Fall:

Getting Used to Lower Growth and Higher Prices

As the economy sorts itself out from the recent financial turmoil, we are very likely to have lower growth rates for quite a few years. We described the reasons for this last quarter: writing down excessive loans and curtailing expenditures as we realize we are not as rich as we thought.

Economic expansion will also be held back by the decreasing growth of available man hours. Since 2000, this growth has declined to below 1% per year from an average of 1.62% for the prior 50 years. Over the next 30 years, it is almost certain to continue to decline to about 0.5%, ignoring the temporary cyclical bounce in employment that we will get as the current severe recession ends.

Behind these two issues, however, lurks another longer-term and more important factor affecting future growth, and that is the increasing limitations on resources: we are simply running out of everything at a dangerous rate. We apparently have trouble processing numeric issues of this kind, and this missing faculty will cause considerable grief. We do not understand the implications of exponential or compound growth rates: the main implication being that they are impossible to sustain.

No better example of resource limitation in the face of both denial and strong efforts can be found than


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ValueWalk

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie "will be worth a multiple of their current price"

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
26
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?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993
?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business
?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which c...



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Zero Hedge

France Is 'Fixed'? - Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever - as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France's problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been an interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly i...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Now's a great time to be a stock picker (Business Insider)

Companies in the S&P 500 are moving independently of one another to an extent rarely seen, and that's good news for stock pickers.

The World’s Advanced Economies Should Think Twice About Curbing Migration (Bloomberg)

Analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings shows halting immigration would drastically reduce the potential working population of Group-of-Seven nations, leaving aging societies more dependent on a smaller labor force and resulting in greater f...



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Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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