Posts Tagged ‘retail investors’

Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog

368322 09: A car passes by the sign in front of the Apple offices Computer April 21, 2000 in Cupertino, CA. The company is one of many computer technology corporations situated in Silicon Valley. (Photo by David McNew/ Newsmakers).

Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:

Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010

Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?

Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.

image006.png

As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years?  We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
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26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?

26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?

Courtesy of Mish 

computer tradingHere is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link.

Monday’s market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday’s rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth and negative volume. In Friday’s rally, the bulls had had a similar 90% advantage. Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors says 26 of the last 88 trading days have been 90% days – one way or another. Any wonder the public is wary.

Are these 90% Days a Good Thing?

While the big boys push the market around, small investors have thrown in the towel and are not coming back.

Market volume now consists of black boxes pushing all stocks one way or the other on 30% of the days. Is this a good thing? For who? Investors or Goldman Sachs?

Holding the Line

Today, the 1040 level on the S&P held for about the 8th time on "fabulous" news consumer confidence rose to 53. Bear in mind number in the 70′s are typical of recession lows.

How long the 1040 level can hold is a mystery, but each bounce seems to be weaker and weaker.

Last Friday, I noted Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; while asking "what’s next?"

We have a partial answer already. Treasuries have regained the entire selloff that started (and ended) on the "great news" that 2nd quarter GDP was +1.6% instead of the expected +1.4%. Never mind that growth was revised down twice from above +2.5% to +1.6%.

Looking ahead, I expect GDP to be negative in the 3rd quarter.

Art Cashin’s 17.6 Year Cycles

A little over a year ago Art Cashin commented Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights. Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt.

"There was no ‘stimulus’ in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it."

Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle."

"It’s like the Biblical story of the fat


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More Observations On HFT’s Tyranny Of Stock Markets

More Observations On HFT’s Tyranny Of Stock Markets

Courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge

Anywhere one turns these days, bashing HFT is the new market normal. Having written 150 articles on the topic, beginning in April 2009, we are happy to have brought the world’s attention to this most dangerous of market aberrations. Yet until the SEC finally bans the practices of micro churning, quote stuffing, positive feedback loop chasing, flash trading, subpennying, DMA accessing, and all other aspects conceived merely to provide some market participants with an unfair advantage over everyone else, the fight against HFT must continue.

Which is why we draw your attention to two items: the first is a paper by Bluemont Capital "The Marginalizing of the Individual Investor" in which the authors question if HFT has distorted true market valuation (yes) and to what degree. Some relevant soundbites: "Unfortunately, high-frequency trader interaction with computerized algorithms of large-cap financial institutions is providing opportunities for high-speed, virtually undetectable market manipulation", "At a minimum, computerized high-frequency and algorithmic trading are undermining traditional value investing strategies. Short-term liquidity and data movements are distorting information on real business performance", "Essentially, high-frequency trading platforms function as positive feedback loops. Engineers treat positive feedback loops as inherently unstable, as each positive response generates stepped-up repetition of the same actions. Positive feedback loops result in an ever- expanding balloon, but like all balloons, the risk of bursting increases with the balloon’s size." It concludes that the "continuing advances in computerized trading pose challenges for regulators throughout the world—and leave individual investors marginalized… Regulators should not only seek to assure that markets are able to continue to function under stress, but they also need to devise remedial actions that protect individual investors who have fundamentally different objectives from the high-turnover objectives of high frequency traders and computerized algorithms."

The other notable item is the appearance of our friends at Nanex on ABC radio over in Australia, where firm founder Eric Hunsader discusses the previously highlighted concepts of latency arbitrage as a potential progenitor to the May 6 crash, as well as possible ways that the NBBO arbitrage could have provided for unfair and illegal mispricing opportunities for a select few.

Bluemont Capital "On the Marginalizing of the Individual Investor":

 

Full August 29 interview with Eric Hunsader on Latency Arbitrage
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16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest anticipated weekly outflow from equity mutual funds just hit a one month high of $2.7 billion, as reported by ICI, and with that, YTD redemptions by equity investors have hit over $50 billion. Domestic equity mutual funds have not seen a net positive retail inflow since April 28, yet despite this the market has been substantially rangebound and until last week. What is notable is that even during times of relative stock outperformance, courtesy of whoever it is that is left buying stocks, be it HFT algos, or Primary Dealers pumped with cheap Fed liquidity (and don’t forget today is another "free $2 billion courtesy of POMO" day), the investing public refuses to be drawn into owning stocks. CNBC has now failed to sucker its viewers into the stock ponzi for 16 weeks in a row and rising. The clear capital rotation winner- the bond bubble, but that is the topic for another week.

 


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Retail Investors Abandon Stock Market and ETFs in Droves

Retail Investors Abandon Stock Market and ETFs in Droves

a young man lying on a sofa holding a glass of wine

Courtesy of John Nyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

MarketWatch.com  reports today that retail investors “appear to be scaling back their trading activity in June.”

Trading is down approximately -30% in so far in June compared to May, according to a report from Sandler Oneil who says, ”We suspect the May 6 ‘flash crash’ as well as the market performance since then … have shaken the retail investor’s confidence” and that “June trading levels could be at multi-year low levels.”

Not good news probably for ETrade (ETFCD) or Schawb (SCHW).

This report comes on top of recent news that Morgan Stanley (MS) is closing 300 offices and laying off 1200 employees, along with lighter than normal volume in major equities markets and fund outflows of over $1 Billion for the week ending June 2nd as reported by the Investment Company Institute.

It’s a “deer in the headlights” kind of environment wherein retail investors are abandoning the domestic equity market and that could make it a perfect time to “buy” since the “dumb money” almost always gets it wrong.

However, my opinion is that you can’t just buy anything and hold on, “buy and hold” or “buy and hope.”

I’ve said recently that current conditions offer enormous opportunity and that many millionaires will be created over the next few years.  But they won’t be buy and hold investors.  I’m afraid those days are gone, maybe forever, replaced by this new volatility and challenging markets that will very likely require a disciplined trading plan for success.

John 

*****

See also:  Meltup "Abysmal Volume" Summer Approaches, Even As Americans Now Openly Shun Stocks, Zero Hedge

John Nyaradi publishes Wall Street Sector Selector, an online newsletter specializing in sector rotation trading using ETFs. John is offering PSW readers a 30 Day Free Membership and Free Special Report, "Slay the Dragon Within: How to Make Your Emotions Work for You Instead of Against You." His service provides signals for going long and short using standard and leveraged ETFs. Free Membership Subscribers also get access to the Wall Street Sector Selector Monthly Webinar and a second Report, "How To Avoid the Buy and Hold Trap." - Ilene  


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3PM is Adult Swim, Humans Get Out of the Pool

3PM is Adult Swim, Humans Get Out of the Pool

Side profile of a young man squatting on a starting block Model Release: Yes Property Release: NA

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Yesterday was a great example of a new characteristic of this market that is truly disturbing - I’m calling it "Adult Swim". On many days, at or around 3PM, the market becomes unsafe for human beings as the churning high frequency trading machines jump in to do their thing. This is like the public pool, when all children are called out of the water so that the big kids can cannonball and thrash about – the lifeguard blows his whistle to signal that it’s time for Adult Swim.

On many recent days, we’ve seen the program traders run amok in the last hour of trading, hitting stops and just generally bringing the ruckus.

Take a look at yesterday’s intraday chart of the major averages below for an example:

The damage to the psyche of individual investors and the "slow money" that used to support the markets is snowballing into what may become an outright protest.  The $25 billion in US stock mutual fund outflows since the beginning of May is the body I’ll produce as evidence of a crime.

My question to the proponents of the tradebot society is this: 

Once you’ve chased the last 401(k) holders, the last retail investors, the last retirees holding blue chips out of this market, whom will you trade with?

Whose stop loss orders will you discover and trigger? Whom will you abuse and scalp? Each other? Actually, I’d very much like to see that.

The 3 PM Adult Swim hour is destroying what last shreds of faith in this market remain. 


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Goldman’s Dissembling (Dark Pools et.al.)

Here’s Karl’s take on Goldman Sachs’s story that they are doing us all a favor:  Oh Really? – Ilene

Goldman’s Dissembling (Dark Pools et.al.)

Record Earnings Lead To Big Bonuses On Wall Street

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Now comes Goldman with yet another pack of misdirection:

Goldman told the Securities and Exchange Commission that computer-driven trading and an increase in stock transactions that occur off public exchanges has reduced consumer costs, increased competition and brought more liquidity to markets.

“The investing community (especially retail) has benefited from the evolving market structure and industry competition,” Goldman Sachs said in a summary of the 55-page report submitted to the agency.

You have to love the general gist of this thing.

Let’s break down what’s really going on here, because it is both instructive and, in my opinion, necessary.

Dark pools and High Frequency Trading reduce transparency.  The argument raised by Goldman and others is that these venues "improve price" for retail investors (and others), such as mutual funds (held by many retail investors.)  The problem is that this is the wrong metric to apply.

Trading in established stocks is in fact a negative sum game.  That is, for every share I get a "better price" on as a buyer, the seller gets a lower price.  Worse, since there there are commissions and fees involved in all transactions, the net effect of each trade is to dilute the total capital base in the system.

An example will serve to show this:

$1,100 in total money in the system.
100 shares @ $10 "quoted".
Taxes, commissions and exchange fees of 1% of the transaction.

The buyer and seller transact all 100 shares.  There is now $1,090 in total money (the other $10 has been siphoned off in commissions and fees.)

Do it again.  There is now $1,080 (another $10 has been siphoned off.)

Perform 10 transactions and oops – there isn’t enough money to transact an 11th time.

Now here’s the rub – the amount of "spread" that the market maker, which would be Goldman (among many others) can make is entirely dependent on the ability to hide the actual bid and offer by real investors!

That is, let’s assume that of the $10 in commissions and fees Goldman…
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WSJ – Small Investors Pile into Emerging Markets, Junk Bonds, and Commodities

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WSJ – Small Investors Pile into Emerging Markets, Junk Bonds, and Commodities

crowded trade, lemmings, small investorsPosted by TraderMark at Fund My Mutual Fund

If you’ve been around these markets for a while you generally know by the time the retail investor is piling into a group, chasing huge scores – it’s generally time to run away (at the least) and for the 5% among us who short, begin to think seriously about betting against the small fry. It sounds cold, but this is just the way it tends to work … trust me, I used to be one of these people, so I learned the hard (read: expensive) way. As we read the piece below let us trust in the fact that none of these people were buying in early March, but most likely jumped in when it was "safe" a month or so later.

Contrast the lemmings running into "what’s hot" with what you’ve been reading here – about a month ago I was saying commodities is crowded and I would not want to be exposed highly there. People who heeded that thought process avoided the sand blasting that has gone on for 3 weeks running in this sector. While I do like these emerging markets for the long term, I think they are vulnerable here as well; some are beginning to roll over – Russia has already been in a "technical" bear market (down over 20% from peak). And I am saying the same thing I said in commodities a month ago, now for the latest darling – technology. It is crowded – everyone is hiding there. Beware.

I don’t really talk much bonds but while junk bonds (highest risk) has provided the most juice the past 3-4 months, its basically been a parallel to the stock market. The ‘worst of breed’ has run up the most as green shoots flower across the world. Just as with the green shoots themselves, I find the junk bond love way premature. This economy is stalled and I expect many more companies to suffer – so buying bonds of the worst seems not such a great intermediate term strategy. I’d be more interested


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Phil's Favorites

They're All Going to Leave

 

They’re All Going to Leave

Courtesy of 

Stocks have been near all-time highs for a while now. The S&P 500 has gone 322 days without experiencing a 5% drawdown, colloquially known as a “pullback.”

Stocks haven’t just been hanging out near all-time highs, they’ve been printing new ones daily. In 2017, 47 out of 201 sessions have closed at an all-time high. It’s been a remarkably smooth ride. Not day-to-day, of course it never is, but in reality the S&P 500 has gained 19% since last July without giving anything back. This...



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Zero Hedge

Chinese Army Documents Leak Set To Embarrass Beijing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Jan van der Made via RFI,

In the vaults of Amazon.com’s self publishing market place, a growing series of books exposing China’s dark secrets is seeing the light. Six books with colorful covers, which constitute the “China Secrets” series, introduce a reader to the fascinating world of China’s internal – or neibu – documents. But many questions remain.

...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Most In A Month On CFTC ICO Anxiety, South Korea Tax Concerns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After soaring to new record highs near $6000 last week (as China returned to work following its Golden Week holiday), the start of the National Congress last night, combined with CFTC comments on ICO crackdowns has spooked cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin down 8% - its biggest drop in a month..

Crytpos are down across the board...

With Bitcon back to a $5100 handle...

...

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ValueWalk

Possible Female Shooter Seen Around University Of Missouri

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The latest

The potential female shooter who was being sought around the university of Missouri campus has been located. No one was injured in the incident. Police located her about 35 minutes after the “active threat” alert was sent out by the university. She was safe, and there is no longer a threat.

Initial report

Police around the University of Missouri are searching for a potential female shooter around the campus. At this point though, there are no reports of anyone being shot. Officials at the University of Missouri say the woman may be suicidal and carrying a handgun, so they are advising students to “take appropriate actions.”

...

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Chart School

Guest Post by Paul Koger: 7 Ways Emotion Screws Up Your Trading (& How To Fix It)

Courtesy of Declan.

Going Tilt in trading is a killer which is why I trade a small account and buy-and-hold with the money I need for the future.  This infographic by Paul Koger illustrates how emotion influences your trading and ways of mitigating its pitfalls. 
For more from Paul visit Foxytrades.com

...

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Insider Scoop

Fortinet's Underappreciated Growth Story

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related FTNT Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 18, 2017 Watch These 8 Huge Call Purchases In Thursday Trade ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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