Call Buyers Converge On Rubbermaid
by Option Review - January 12th, 2012 2:09 pm
Today’s tickers: NWL, RIMM & EMN
NWL - Newell Rubbermaid, Inc. – Big prints in Newell Rubbermaid call options pushed the consumer products provider onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning. The burst of call options activity on the stock appears to be largely driven by one or more traders positioning for the price of the underlying to appreciate in the next couple of months. Shares in Rubbermaid are currently down 0.75% to stand at $17.23 as of 1:15 PM in New York. The Company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on January 27. In-the-money call buying at the February $17 strike this morning, where some 550 calls were picked up for a premium of $0.90 each, was followed minutes later by the purchase of a large block of 10,000 calls at the Mar. $18 strike at a premium of $0.65 apiece. All told, more than 12,600 calls have changed hands at the Mar. $18 strike against open interest of just 156 contracts. Traders long these call options may profit at expiration in March if shares in Rubbermaid surge 8.2% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $18.65. We note that, while the block of 10,000 calls do not appear to be tied to any transaction in the underlying shares today, it’s possible the buyer is short the stock and using the long calls to hedge delta. The interpretation of the transaction would, in that case, change from bullish to bearish as the short stock position yields profits if shares in Rubbermaid decline. Finally, fresh put positions established at the Mar. $17 strike, where around 1,100 contracts were purchased at an average premium of $0.92, suggests some traders are poised to potentially profit should the price of the underlying stock pullback ahead of expiration day.…
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DiggOptions Traders Tackle Research In Motion
by Option Review - December 16th, 2011 2:57 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, RRR, HNR & DAL
RIMM - Research in Motion, Ltd. – Bruised, battered and beaten-down does not adequately describe how shares in RIMM look these days, particularly today after the company revealed fourth-quarter sales and earnings guidance that missed expectations, and said the new generation of Blackberrys will launch later than it had anticipated. Shares in the Research in Motion opened the session down 13.3% at an eight-year low of $13.12. The stock this year has lost more than 80.0% of its value this year, having come down from a February 18, 2011, 52-week high of $70.54. Options volume on the stock is just about to top 400,000 contracts as of 1:00 PM in New York, making it the most actively traded single-stock name by options volume today. Puts on the Blackberry maker are changing hands roughly 1.8 times for each single call option in action today. Trading in weekly options set to expire next Friday suggest some traders expect the price of the underlying to slump to fresh lows during the next five trading sessions. Bearish positions accumulated at the Dec. ’23 $14 strike, where more than 4,500 in-the-money puts changed hands against 1,082 open positions. It looks like most of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.83 each. Traders eyeing continued near-term weakness snapped up around 2,000 puts at the lower Dec. ’23 $13 strike at an average premium of $0.35 a-pop. Investors long the $13 strike puts may profit at expiration in the event that RIMM’s shares slip beneath the average breakeven point at $12.65. Call sellers also made an appearance in the weekly options, selling roughly 2,000 contracts at the Dec. ’23 $13 strike to pocket an average premium of $0.84 apiece. Investors selling the call options may walk away with the full amount of premium in hand as long as shares settle below $13.00 at expiration.…
Wednesday Weakness – Can We Survive Without QE3?
by Phil - December 14th, 2011 8:01 am
WTF?
Do Ben Bernanke and I live on different planets? "For a lot of people," he said during a speech at Fort Bliss, "I know it doesn’t feel like the recession ever ended." For what people exactly, Dr. Bernanke, does it seem like it did end? Study after study after study show that, if you are not lucky enough to be in the top 10% of our society (and certainly not a shade of Johnson’s "Great Society" anymore) then you are pretty much f*cked – and, no, there’s not a nicer way to put it.
Bernanke seems to love the Great Depression so much he is Hell-bent on replicating it here so he can study it in greater detail. I suppose he has some sort of academic detachment regarding the untold suffering he is causing the American people but, who can blame him? He just got a great rate when he refinanced his $850,000 home.
Fortunately, we had complete confidence in Bernanke’s incompetence (see yesterday’s "To QE3 or not to QE3 – That Sets Direction") and, of course, we took advantage of yet another chance to short oil futures (/CL) off the $101 and then the $100 lines on the way down. We were HOPING (not a valid investing strategy) that we’d get some QE3 but, as I warned Members in the morning: "If not – well, Hell hath no fury like a market disappointed."
Clearly, as you can see from David Fry’s SPY chart – I was not overselling the point. Bernanke and the Fed are of the opinion that 10% unemployment is within their mandate of "promoting full employment" and don’t see the need to take action? Let’s have a little review of how good the Fed Chairman has been as a prognosticator for our economy as he enters his 7th year at the Fed:
Drivin’ that train, high on cocaine
Casey Jones you better watch your speed
Trouble ahead, trouble behind
and you know that notion just crossed my mind
Trouble with you is the trouble with me…
Bulls Take To Research In Motion calls
by Option Review - December 1st, 2011 3:09 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, PIR, BKS & TWC
RIMM - Research in Motion, Ltd. – Renewed takeover speculation lifted shares in beaten-down Blackberry-maker Research in Motion this morning, spurring fresh bullish activity in weekly call options and driving options implied volatility on the stock higher. RIMM’s shares earlier rallied as much as 5.1% to $18.77, but have cooled somewhat as of 11:50 AM ET to stand a lesser 2.5% higher on the day at $18.30. Investors placing immediate-term bullish trades targeted the Dec. ’02 $18 and $19 strike calls, which have one full day of trading left to expiration. Traders paid an average premium of $0.45 apiece to pick up more than 1,100 in-the-money calls at the Dec. ’02 $18 strike, and shelled out an average of $0.16 in premium per contract for some 3,500 calls at the higher $19 strike. Meanwhile, the newly available weekly options that expire next Friday attracted the attention of speculators as well. Options traders purchased calls at the Dec. ’11 $19, $20, $21 and $22 strikes to position for RIMM’s shares to extend gains. Investors purchased roughly 850 calls at the Dec. ’11 $19 strike for an average premium of $0.53 each, and snapped up nearly 700 of the Dec. ’11 $20 strike calls at an average premium of $0.39 apiece. Call buyers at these strikes may profit at expiration next week in the event that shares in Research in Motion surge 6.7% and 11.4% over the current price of $18.30 to surpass the average breakeven prices of $19.53 and $20.39, respectively. Roughly 88,000 option contracts have changed hands on RIMM as of midday on the East Coast, with calls trading more than 2.3 times for each single put option in play.
PIR - Pier 1 Imports, Inc. – The home furnishings retailer popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after one strategist initiated a bullish stance in March 2012 contract calls. The specialty retailer raised its third-quarter earnings estimate from $0.18 a share to a range of $0.20 to $0.21 a share, and said comparable store sales increased 7.0%. Shares in Pier 1 Imports are down 2.05% in early-afternoon trade to stand at $13.31, but one investor is preparing for the price of the underlying to realize significant gains over the next four months. It looks like the trader purchased 1,060 calls at the Mar. 2012 $17 strike for a premium of $0.40…
Bullish Bias To Options On UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF
by Option Review - October 5th, 2011 2:34 pm
Today’s tickers: TBT, RIMM & CE
TBT - ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF – The huge run-up in bonds with greater than 20 years remaining to maturity may pull back by the end of the year, by the looks of a massive bullish options position on the TBT today. The TBT, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index, rose 1.7% in early-afternoon trade to $19.12 perhaps on the release of some much-needed scraps of positive economic data out today. A number of large blocks of call options changed hands on the TBT this morning across multiple expiries. The traders responsible for the prints mostly purchased the contracts to position for shares in the TBT to rise, and bonds to fall. The largest transaction on the fund today was the purchase of a massive call butterfly spread in the December contract. The call ‘fly involved the purchase of 15,500 calls at the Dec. $22 and $28 strikes, combined with the sale of 31,000 calls at the Dec. $25 strike, all for a net premium of $0.26 per contract. The spread positions the investor to pocket maximum potential profits of $2.74 per contract in the event that shares in the TBT surge 30.75% over the current price of $19.12 to settle at $25.00 at expiration in December. The investor starts making money if the price of the underlying tops the effective breakeven price of $22.26 by expiration day. The rise in the TBT to $25.00 would roughly correspond to an 11.0% move lower in the TLT, which mirrors the daily performance of the same underlying Index of 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bonds, to $108.00. Shares in the TBT last traded around $25.00 on August 31.…
Call Buying On Sprint Amid Session Lows Well-Played As Shares Rebound
by Option Review - October 4th, 2011 2:09 pm
Today’s tickers: S, GS, RIMM & CCL
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – Seemingly well-timed call buying on Sprint in the first hour of the trading session has seen the value of options held by one or more bullish investors appreciate intraday. Shares in Sprint Nextel Corp. fell as much as 17.6% this morning to touch down at a new 52-week low of $2.25, but have since fought their way back to rally 2.2% to $2.79 just after 12:35 pm EDT. The stock tumbled this week on news the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier is committed to buying at least 30.5 million iPhones over the next four years, a deal estimated to cost around $20 billion, as reported in today’s Wall Street Journal. Concerns regarding the terms of the deal were reflected in the steep selloff that ensued in Sprint shares. But, activity in Jan. 2012 contract call options this morning suggests some traders were ready to position for a rebound in the battered stock. It looks like investors purchased around 18,400 calls at the Jan. 2012 $2.5 strike for an average premium of $0.57 apiece, against previously existing open interest of 9,650 contracts. The calls that had earlier cost an average of $0.57 to purchase now require $0.76 per contract roughly two hours later. Premium on the calls should continue to rise should Sprint’s shares extend their recovery in the months remaining to January 2012 expiration. Options traders populating Sprint Nextel Corp. are trading roughly three calls on the wireless provider to each single put in action. Options implied volatility is up 30.3% to arrive at 119.8% this afternoon.
GS - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Shares in Goldman Sachs are well off their lows of the session, having earlier dropped as much as 6.45% to a 31-month low of $84.27. The stock remains firmly in the red, however, down 2.1% at $88.18 as of 11:30 am in New York. Not surprisingly, options on financial stocks and the XLF are some of the most active…
Rumors Spur Run On Research In Motion Weeklies
by Option Review - September 27th, 2011 2:34 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, POT, AXP & HSC
RIMM - Research in Motion Ltd. – Speculation that activist investor Carl Icahn may have approached and taken a stake in beleaguered BlackBerry maker, Research in Motion Ltd., sent shares in the Canadian company up as much as 7.4% to an earlier high of $23.29. The hum of the rumor mill spurred a pile-up in weekly call options on the stock, as traders scrambled to get long the short-dated contracts in the event that the rumors have legs. Speculative plays are heaviest in the Sept. $23 strike call, where more than 14,100 contracts changed hands against previously existing open interest of 2,610 positions. Most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.42 a-pop, thus preparing longs to profit should RIMM’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $23.42 at expiration this week. Investors exchanged more than 7,100 calls at the higher Sept. $24 strike today, and appear to have purchased a little more than half of the contracts at an average premium of $0.30 a-pop. Traders long the calls may benefit from continued gains in implied volatility and the price of the underlying shares. Clarity on the rumors from Icahn himself may see the stock continue to climb, or could burst call buyers’ bubble and send shares back down. Lack of clarity could potentially work in favor of long options positions should speculation continue to lift volatility.
POT - Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Bullish positioning in options that expire at the end of the trading week popped on Potash Corp. this morning, as shares in the producer of fertilizer and feed products rallied 5.75% to $50.05 by 11:05 am EDT. Shares in the Canadian potash producer joined in on today’s relief rally in global equities, and were raised to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month target share price of $60.00 at Atlantic Equities today. Short-term bets on continued strength in Potash Corp.’s shares through the end of the month pushed volume in Sept. ’30…
Monday Market Movement – More Greek Madness
by Phil - September 19th, 2011 8:04 am
Last Thursday, I said in the Morning Post:
We’ll certainly be angling to hedge back near neutral into the weekend. Next week is going to be a real thrill-ride as Greece boils over in the EU this weekend and Bernanke steps up to the plate on Wednesday.
In Member Chat on Friday we cashed out our FXI Oct $36 longs at $2 (up 117% in 2 days) in our $25,000 virtual portfolio (now over $80,000) – selling into the morning excitement and grabbed the QID Oct $44/47 bull call spread at $1.45, selling RIMM Oct $22 puts for $1.10 into the panic as a bullish offset. At net .35, it will be very easy to get a quick 100% or even 200% gain ahead of the Fed on the morning sell-off and we’ll be looking to cash out and switch horses if we can hold the same levels we held on Thursday, the same ones we were looking to break over on Wednesday (we did) – notably S&P 1,200 and Russell 700.
We are simply waiting on the Fed this week and little attention should be paid to any action in the markets as long as it stays within our range. What matters is the reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement at 2:15 and, between now and then, it’s all about Housing in the US, with the NAHB Housing Market Index this morning at 10 followed by Housing Starts and Building Permits tomorrow at 8:30 and then the MBA Mortgage Index Wednesday at 7am and, finally, Existing Home Sales at 10. After that the Fed has the floor and nothing really matters after that.
If Housing is bad, we are ready with IYR hedges in our Income Portfolio so we’ll be able to sell DIA puts to cover into the morning sell-off that we anticipated on Friday. We can also take advantage of the morning panic to short TLT again, as they should be flying over $113 again. Our last TLT spread was last Wednesday, where we sold the weekly $113 calls for .90 and bought the $114/112 bear put spread for $1.12 for net .22 and that one finished Friday at net $1.75, up 795% in two days – so you can why I’m excited to get another pop at it this morning!
Doug Short wrote an excellent article titled "Weighing the Week…
Follow-Through Friday – Out of Gas or On the Launch Pad?
by Phil - September 16th, 2011 8:31 am
Wheeeeee, what a fun weeek!
I couldn’t say how many “fixes” we’ve had over the past two years but there have been plenty. Each has proven ephemeral but each new effort has become more assertive. This current plan now comes with wide global support. We have to remember these governments have skin in the game for their own economies. BRIC countries have plenty of “stuff” to export to a healthy euro zone so they’ll be supportive. Bernanke is also determined to be a player rumored to be adding $100 billion in aid to Europeans. Also in support were the ECB, the SNB, the BOJ and the BOE. I guess you could say; “it takes a village”, eh? – David Fry
Bears should know they can’t fight the Fed and when the Fed brings all of it’s buddies along with their various economic weapons – it’s probably not the best time to stand up to them. We still need to hear the word on QE3 next Wednesday or all these gains will vanish in a puff of smoke but, really, what are the odds that all this leads up to a Fed meeting where they say: "No more free money"?
In our current environment, any whiff of the European financial crisis abating seems to send the markets higher. "Somehow we’re back to a risk-on trade again," says Custom Portfolio’s David Twibell, but the problem in Europe is very serious, and if there was an easy solution, we would have already solved the problem. "The market is being a bit Pollyannaish right now," he says.
We went risk-on on in a big way on Monday, as we bet on the manipulators to manipulate (seemed like a reasonable premise) and today is the day we take those profits off the table and use some of them to hedge for the weekend. I laid out the trade ideas from our Monday and Tuesday morning posts on Wednesday and it now looks like FXE will finish above $37 for the full 1,100% gain so we’re off to a good start already!
XLF is an Oct spread but on track and the Short FAS $8 puts for October are already down to .30 (up 70%) so there’s no sense waiting a month for the last 30%, is there? Certainly not after we make 70% in a week! VXX is well below…
Nokia Bulls Seize The Initiative After Google’s Motorola Foray
by Option Review - August 15th, 2011 2:14 pm
Today’s tickers: NOK, RIMM & AEP
NOK - Nokia Corp. – Investors in the Finnish cellphone-maker who have watched its share price halve from its optimistic February peak were thrown a lifeline on Monday after Google said it would buy a Motorola division. The purchase of its Mobility unit was quickly pounced on by Nokia bulls after a spokesman for the company said “we use Windows too!” Shares in Nokia recovered by 12% on Monday to trade at $6.00 after Nokia said that the Google decision vindicated its decision to stick with Windows technology. The move, said Nokia, could serve up a “massive catalyst” for the entire Windows Phone ecosystem. Option traders jumped at the chance of a reevaluation for the industry in light of the recent slump especially in Nokia’s fortunes, where executives earlier stopped making forecasts in light of ever-tougher competition from Apple and Blackberry. Investors predicted that Nokia might gain as much as 50% over the coming two months and paid an average of 10 cents for rights to buy shares by October. Calls at the $9.00 strike started the day with less than a one-in-10 chance of landing in the money by expiration but still investors keep snapping them up – volume so far stands at 16,642 lots.
RIMM - Research in Motion – Blackberry-maker RIMM also tagged along for the ride on Monday after National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson suggested that Google’s Motorola purchase crystallized the issue of patents. Google’s defense of its Android strategy by widening the net of its outstanding number of patents might focus investors on a floor for Research in Motion. The company earlier acquired thousands of wireless patents from now bankrupt Nortel Networks, which could be valued at $10 billion and compare to a market value of $13 billion at…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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