Posts Tagged ‘scott black’

Scott Black’s Top Stocks for 2011

Here’s a list of Scott Black’s Top Stocks for 2011 – in case stock picking comes back into style this year. And if not, the melt-up shouldn’t hurt top rated stocks.  - Ilene 

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

First, a quick confession from me: I just now got around to reading the 2011 Barron’s Roundtable issue.  In previous years, I’ve been known to inhale it on the walk from the driveway back up to my house, but in a market where every stock goes up every minute, it just didn’t seem so urgent this time.

Anyway, Scott Black came with the thunder this year.  His picks are so refreshing; they are a product of that Old School, bottoms-up, earnings-driven stockpicking that no one seems to do anymore.  There are macro forces driving these stories, but this isn’t the de rigeur Emerging Markets/Commodities/Tech stuff.  This guy knows his companies inside and out and they are from disparate parts of the global economy.

You read the typical plain-jane Roundtable stuff from Abbey Joseph Cohen ("We like GE and Exxon Mobil and white bread and vanilla ice cream"), then you read Scott Black’s ideas and rationales and it’s night and day.

Here are the names, grab yourself this week’s Barron’s for his theses…

Scott Black’s Picks

Company Ticker Price 1/7/11
JoS. A. Bank Clothiers JOSB $40.49
Aecom Technology ACM 26.77
China XD Plastics CXDC 5.7
Methanex MEOH 29.02
Vale VALE 34.98
General Cable BGC 33.71
TTM Technologies TTMI 14.03
Arrow Electronics ARW 34.71

 

Source:

Scott Black – Roundtable (Barron’s) 


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Zero Hedge

Bob Shiller Fears "Substantial Decline" Sees Dow 'Fair Value' Around 11,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

"This is a dangerous time," warns Nobel laureate Bob Schiller as he warns of the false signal that typical P/E ratios are misleading and in fact his CAPE ratio (looking through the cycle) implies "fair value" for The Dow should trade around 11,000 and around 1300 for the S&P 500. "There is a risk of a substantial decline," he adds, warning that the recent rebound "maybe someone's good will effort to stabilize the market," and in fact the market's valuation is high now and people are over-exposed.

Schiller unleashes some inconvenient truths on CNBC...

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Change investment allocations due to .2% of a move?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Can you believe that its a really big deal to some if an index is down 9.9% from it highs (non correction territory) or if its down 10.1% (correction territory).  Does .2% constitute that we make a different allocation decision? Are you kidding me?

Do you find yourself agreeing more with the person on the left or right? I am in the camp with Lou on the right. Should we make investment decisions based upon a term (correction)? Not me

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Dow since 2010 ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

In Parched California, a Farmer's Market is Emerging for Power (Bloomberg)

Californias record drought may be a boon to power companies.

Millennial investors are buying in volatile market (CNN)

The wild stock market gyrations may have scared many investors. But not the twenty-something newbies.

If anything, the young investors are doubling down, opening new accounts and buying stocks.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Interest Rates and Bond Yields: Where are They Headed? September Hike Ideal? Is the Bond Bull Market Over?

Courtesy of Mish.

With all the chatter about whether the Fed will hike on September 17 or not, let's do an interest rate and bond yield recap of where various rates are, where they have been, and where they are likely headed.

Effective Federal Funds Rate



As of yesterday, the effective federal funds rate was a mere 8 basis points. Since April, it has been swinging from a low of 6-8 basis points to a high of 14-15 basis points.

I suspect the odds of a hike are close to 50-50.

The CME Fed Watch has the hike odds at 27% as of September 2. However, the CME does not consider a move to 0.25% a hike....



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Chart School

Gann Angle Apple Inc Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Time to review Apple Inc with the Gann Angle.

Gann Angles may work best on either daily trading days, daily calendar days, or weekly. All should be considered.

In the chart below Apple Inc works very well. Gann Angles with Fibonacci arc forecasts do work well together.

Any bounce of Apple Inc into previous resistance should be considered as a possible short. Watching and waiting.



Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

.."Tape reading was an...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Look Beyond Q3 For This Digital Marketing Leader

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ADBE Benzinga's Top Upgrades Baird: Now's The Time To Buy Adobe The Vetr community has upgraded $ADBE to 4.5-Stars. (Vetr)
  • Shares of Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: ADBE) have risen over 5 percent year-to-date.
  • Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz has initiated coverage of Adobe Systems with a Perform rating.
  • While expr...


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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 31st, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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