I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.
WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).
Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!
Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!
That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.
AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.
Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!
PSW AC Conf: For those who may be on the bubble, I attended my first PSW LV in November. It was a real eye-opener. What I accomplished in a couple of days of exposure to Phil, Pharm, Craig, et al made my previous couple of years of hanging around the web site seem silly. If you are inclined in the slightest, you really should go. Just rubbing shoulders with other PSW members proved to be really valuable. Strictly on the basis of value, it's a great deal. You will have real time conversations with Phil and the gang and they will get to your questions and agenda items.
Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!
Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!
I like the retirement picks too. The futures trading is certainly more sexy, but the boring retirement picks are the ones that consistently make me money.
I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.
BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke
Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.
TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!
Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help
I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals).
In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.
Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!
Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.
Sheila Bair has turned a corner in her support of the bankers. On the critical issue of accounting clarity she made these remarks today to a bunch of CPA’s. I hear she got a standing ovation from that audience. Her words:
Fair Value Accounting
Another ongoing regulatory process is FASB’s proposal to substantially revise the accounting standards for financial instruments. Under the proposed rule, banks would be required to measure substantially all of their financial instruments at fair value on the balance sheet.
While we understand that the objective of the rule is to make financial statements more transparent, we believe that its effect could be to undermine financial stability by making bank performance more procyclical. In short, we do not believe that a bank – whose business strategy is to hold loans and deposit liabilities for the long term – should be required to measure them at fair value on the balance sheet.
70% of all Americans own some stocks. It is hard to avoid the financials if you’re in a fund, so the consumer’s new champion, Elizabeth Warren, should take up the issue of clarity on bank financial statements. That would be a cat-fight I would like to see.
On the key facts behind the bailouts of 2008, regulators have stonewalled the public, the press and even the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. On Wednesday, we’ll find out if they can also stonewall the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.
Chairman Phil Angelides and his panel will begin two days of hearings on the subject of "Too Big to Fail," featuring testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair. Across bailouts from Bear Stearns to AIG, the government has refused to release its analysis of the "systemic risks" that compelled it to mount unprecedented interventions into the financial system with taxpayer money. Two years after the crisis, Mr. Angelides and his colleagues should finally let the sun shine on this critical period of our economic history.
A year ago we told you about former FDIC official Vern McKinley, who has made a series of Freedom of Information Act requests. He wanted to know what Fed governors meant when they said a Bear Stearns failure would cause a "contagion." This term was used in the minutes of the Fed meeting at which the central bank discussed plans by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to finance Bear’s sale to J.P. Morgan Chase. The minutes contained no detail on how exactly the fall of Bear would destroy America.
He also requested minutes of the FDIC board meeting at which regulators approved financing for a Citigroup takeover of Wachovia. To provide this assistance, the board had to invoke the "systemic risk" exception in the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, and it therefore had to assert that such assistance was necessary for the health of the financial system. Yet days later, Wachovia cut a better deal to sell itself to Wells Fargo, instead of Citi. So how necessary was the assistance?
The regulators have been giving Mr. McKinley the Heisman, but two weeks ago federal Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle made the FDIC show her the Wachovia documents. She is still…
One of the many massive distortions caused by the Fed’s miserable policies is hitting hard on senior citizens who cannot afford stock market losses but need fixed income to live on.
"California Banker" writes
During the past several weeks we’ve had a lot of seniors coming to the bank as their certificate of deposits of mature. They are very disgruntled about the rate environment in general as bank rates are much lower than a year ago.
Many of these seniors are 70 and up and are using the interest to live on in retirement, so their interest income has taken a hit. I imagine most of those living off their interest will likely need to burn net worth to maintain living expense.
Some are moving their deposits to banking institution that a paying a slightly higher rate, which is typically an institution that is struggling and needs the deposit.
To make a few extra pennies, senior citizens pull money out of rock solid institutions in favor of pathetically undercapitalized, troubled banks. But hey, it’s FDIC insured. Why not?
Hello Sheila Bair, can’t you see what’s happening?
Sheila Bair, one of the chief regulators overseeing Bank of America’s federal rescue, took out two mortgages worth more than $1 million from the banking giant last summer during ongoing negotiations about the bank’s bailout and its repayment.
It gets better…
Mortgage documents for that 14-room home include a provision, known as a second-home rider, stating that Bair and her husband must keep the house for their “exclusive use and enjoyment” and may not use it as a rental or timeshare.
Yet the couple has been renting out part of the house since they left for Washington, with Bair listing income from the “rental property” in Amherst as between $15,000 and $50,000 a year on her most recent financial disclosure form as head of the FDIC.
Oh yeah, there’s no conflict of interest here cough-friends-of-angelo-cough!
Of course the FDIC retroactively gave her a waiver from its conflict of interest rules – AFTER The Huffington Post started snooping around.
And of course the FDIC’s ethics officer says there was nothing wrong with what went on – even though it appears that Bair’s use for the property did not qualify for the loan she got, and that the programs that would qualify would and did carry a higher rate.
If, as the FDIC claims, this was an "innocent mistake" then Bair should immediately demand (and accept) a re-price on that paper to conform with her intended and actual use, retroactive to the issue of the loan, and immediately pay all accrued arrears.
Seven U.S. banks were seized by regulators today, bringing this year’s total of failed lenders to 140 as financial companies are tested by the recession and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. anticipates more shutdowns.
Banks with $14.4 billion in total assets were closed in six U.S. states, the FDIC said in statements on its Web site. The agency is overseeing the dissolution of banks at the fastest pace in 17 years.
Earlier this week, the FDIC boosted its 2010 budget by 56 percent to $4 billion to manage further shutdowns. The total budget will increase from $2.6 billion and the set-aside for bank failures doubles to $2.5 billion over this year, according to a proposal approved by the FDIC board. The agency staff will increase to 8,653 next year from 7,010 this year.
The budget “will ensure that we are prepared to handle an ever-larger number of bank failures next year, if that becomes necessary,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement. Today’s bank closings will cost the agency about $1.8 billion, according to the FDIC statements.
U.S. lenders are buckling under the weight of loans tied to commercial real estate, which is plummeting in value. Prices have dropped 43 percent from their peak in October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said last month.
Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings (and capitalization ratios) are wildly over-stated.
Here is an interesting note from the Fed. "For each size category, the sum of all assets held by banks where this ratio is greater than one is divided by the sum all assets held by banks in the class."
The head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. delivered some bad news personally to uninsured depositors who lost money last year when IndyMac Bank crashed and burned, saying an act of Congress is their only hope for recovering their funds.
“When a bank fails, we have to do what’s least-cost to our deposit insurance fund,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said during a public appearance Wednesday in Los Angeles.
Sheila is correct as far as she goes, but like most government employees, it is what she didn’t say that is the problem, not what she did.
Each appropriate Federal banking agency and the Corporation (acting in the Corporation’s capacity as the insurer of depository institutions under this chapter) shall carry out the purpose of this section by taking prompt corrective action to resolve the problems of insured depository institutions.
"Shall" is a specific term of art in legislation. It allows no discretion and mandates action. "May" and "Can" are two other words of course, and mean what they say – as does "shall."
This section of the law goes on to define capitalization "buckets," each of which represents a level above water, or above zero, of the excess of assets .vs. liabilities for depository institutions.
It also contains plenty of other "shall" directives such as:
Each appropriate Federal banking agency shall—
(A)closely monitor the condition of any undercapitalized insured depository institution;
(B)closely monitor compliance with capital restoration plans, restrictions, and requirements imposed under this section; and
(C)periodically review the plan, restrictions, and requirements applicable to any undercapitalized insured depository institution to determine whether the plan, restrictions, and requirements are achieving the purpose of this section.
"Flagrant evils cure themselves by being flagrant; and we are sanguine that the time is come when so great an evil…cannot stand its ground against good feeling and common sense…" John Henry Newman
The reporter on Bloomberg television just mentioned as a snide, smirking editorial aside, that Sheila Bair feels that a million dollars is a lot of pay for one year, and that ten million is excessive for a deposit taking institution. He noted that she is obviously a Washingtonian, and not a New Yorker.
That’s right. A million dollars annual pay is ‘nothing.’ Even ten million is not much pay for an average Wall Street banker that is taking billions in public funds and gaming the financial system.
The obvious implication is that Ms. Bair is some hick regulator who is not as sophisticated as, let’s say, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, or Ben Bernanake when it comes to rewarding their Wall Street cronies for allowing the economy to continue unimpaired.
Perhaps he was attempting to sneak a bit of irony into the propaganda that passes for news in the States these days, but it was not obvious.
But he might be right. When the monetary inflation from all this financial corruption hits, a million dollars per year might yet be a ‘livable wage.’
And so goes the "downward spiral of dumbness." Keep these metrics in mind when you look at your next credit card bill, mortgage payment, and paycheck, rubes, and send your tribute to Caesar.
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said regulators should set pay standards for U.S. banks to ensure incentives encourage long-term performance without setting specific dollar limits.
Banking agencies should “become more active” in using existing authority to set compensation standards that are “principles-based,” Bair said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Washington.
“We do need to revamp the system to make sure that the incentives are long-term,” Bair said. “I do wish some of these firms would exercise better restraint and common sense on what they’re paying their folks.”
Bair echoed concerns of House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other lawmakers…
Sheila Bair on Cramer today. Instead of pandering her flawed policies in front of a small (if any) cable audience, with such pearls as "insured depositors have nothing to worry about", maybe Ms. Bair can finally get back to Zero Hedge in its FOIA request attempting to obtain some/any information on just what is the compensation/fee structure for FDIC’s advisor, and the real man behind the curtain, Perella Weinberg. How is this private investment bank/hedge fund, whose succumbing to Ratner’s bullying attempts recently was the main reason for the non-Tarp lenders to abandon their fight to block the Chrysler 363 asset sale, incentivized to advise Sheila and her henchmen when it comes to deciding which bank(s) to close. And not just that, but one would be interested in finding out just what role did Perella Weinberg play in the negotiations between Carlyle, Blackstone and Ross when they acquired BankUnited, and, more relevantly, what fee did P-W get out of that deal.
Please Ms. Bair – at least a flat out refusal to our FOIA request would be sufficient. In the meantime, if readers would like to join this effort, the FDIC’s FOIA submission page is here.
Listen to the interview below and focus on the language about economists and examiners (~2 minutes into the interview): these are the people on whom the fate of the financial system lies.
Early this morning, in yet another session of panicked selling, the Turkish Lira crashed to new record lows to just shy of USDTRY 3.60, momentarily going bidless as the currency plunged nearly 400 pips in seconds, after Turkish President Recep Erdogan said the path for investors will be opened with lower interest rates, and urged the central bank to imitate Japan and U.S. where rates are low: “why should we go around with 14-15 percent?”
The answer is simple: the currency tends to drop when an economy is seen as weak, the political regime unstable, or - yes - a central bank cuts rates, ...
By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.
There is still a debate over whom the United States is waging war against. Some regard the wave of terrorism undertaken by al-Qaida and the Islamic State as linked significantly to Islam. Others want to distinguish between Islam and these groups in order not to tar an entire religion with the actions of a few.
Clarity, in defining the enemy, is essential to waging a war. If the enemy is terrorism, then the enemy is not a political movement but a method of waging war—no matter who used the method.
The talk over the past couple of months has been, interest rates are rising and the Fed will raise rates very soon. Joe Friday feels a big test is in play, before one can say the “rate trend has changed!”
Below looks at the yield on the 10-year note, over the past 20-years.
CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE
The yield on the 10-year note has remained inside of falling channel (1), creating lower highs and lower lows, for the majority of the past 20-years. The top of the channel is bein...
It is said that a rising stock market with rising interest rates is healthy ! Then why are there massive shipments of 'Adult Diapers' to Wallstreet (joke) ?
The cost of money ($USD) is changing - Share buy backs will cost more - Mortgage rates will rise - Dividends will have to match this - US Govt interest bill increasing - 'Deals' just cost more more more!
Short Answer: This is not good.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Remember the FED QE tends to see interest rates rise...so that wont help! Maybe Janet Yellen will say 'We will do what it takes to save the dollar, and it will be enough!'...
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Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.
The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...
There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.
Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer. One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."
Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.
Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.' Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color). Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...
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nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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