Posts Tagged
‘S&P’
by ilene - March 15th, 2010 11:34 am
Market Club’s Monday Outlook
Via Market Club’s Adam Hewison
a. Sneak Peek At The S&P 500
This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.
While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.
S&P 500 VIDEO HERE.>>
b. Is The US Dollar Reversing Again?
The euro/dollar relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video on the euro/dollar, I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.
Watch the EURO/DOLLAR VIDEO HERE.>>
c. GOLD
And lastly, let’s see what’s happening with GOLD.
The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily "Trade Triangle" technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.
The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.
In today’s video, I share with you my thoughts on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.
More on GOLD HERE.>>
Tags: Dollar, Equities, Euro, Gold, S&P, Stock Market
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by ilene - January 28th, 2010 11:47 am
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Marc Faber is reiterating his negative equity market outlook in a phone interview with Bloomberg today. His comments mirror much of what the brilliant Jeremy Grantham said in his recent market outlook – the market is overbought, overvalued, and the real economy remains weak. He says the market could decline to S&P 920:
“The market has become overbought. There isn’t a meaningful improvement in the economy taking place. The economy may disappoint somewhat in the next few months. The statistics that are being published are very questionable. The economy has stabilized, but isn’t really expanding.”
“With unemployment staying at a relatively high level and with the revenue side being weak, I don’t think that corporate profits will be that great in 2010. Basically, the profits have been boosted by aggressive cost-cutting. The revenue side of corporations is weak.”
Faber goes on to explain that expectations are running hot now and could be well ahead of the fundamentals:
“This year, investors will never achieve returns as high as in 2009. Stocks are relatively high compared to the fundamentals.”
Faber views the recent downturn in financials as a shot across the market’s bow:
“Financials have already been quite weak. It’s kind of a warning sign for the market. They may weaken further, especially the banks. Also commodities-related stocks could weaken somewhat as commodity prices ease.”
But that doesn’t mean stocks will go down all year. Faber sees a Spring rebound:
“Usually March, April are seasonally strong months. We’ll get a rebound. In general, high-quality and large market capitalization stocks are reasonably priced considering you have zero interest-rates. As these markets go down, the high-quality, large-market-cap stocks will go down less than the smaller-cap stocks.”
In last week’s Barron’s Roundtable, Faber expressed his negative views on the full year outlook. He says he wouldn’t be shocked if the market closes lower on the year due to complacency:
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the market closes down this year. There is a lot of complacency among investors, and geopolitically, the world looks horrible.”
Tags: Economy, investors, Marc Faber, S&P, Stock Market, unemployment
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by Phil - December 30th, 2009 11:38 pm
OK, I got a new toy today so I’m going to put up some charts!
Rather than my usual spreadsheets, I thought a visual representation of what I think is going on would be appropriate. So far this week, we have failed to break my levels, which were predicted by our own 5% rule way back in July. I don’t have a drawing tool for the 5% rule but I’ll try to give you an idea of what I see when I look at a chart, now that I can capture them for you.
First of all, let’s look at the S&P, which the analysts are ga-ga over as they make a 50% retracement of the March dive:
Notice the 50% mark is right about our 1,127 watch zone but we didn’t get 1,127 from that spot, we calculated 1,127 as it was a 30% move off the real floor of 867, which is our 5% rule drop. The 5% rule sensibly tells us to throw out spikes and, while it’s hard to think of a 3-month, 200-point drop as a spike, in the grand scheme of things it still is. Here’s how the same Fibonacci series looks if we take 867 as a bottom, rather than 666:
Not quite as impressive a recovery is it? Do you see how the adjusted chart makes far more sense on the way down - with support at the 61.8% line, then at the 50% line and then clearly at 0. The big difference is, in my view of the action, it has been an easy slog to make the effectively dead-cat bounce back to 38.2%. This recent action proves nothing as we have yet to test 1,135, which should provide heavier resistance. It’s going to be a long time before we do a "life cross" (where the 50 wma moves above the 200 wma) so that 1,220 mark is going to weigh very heavily in the future as well, probably all the way into August before the S&P is ready to make a real move up (assuming we don’t fall down in between).
Running the same series on the Dow, we get this:
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Of course the problem with the Dow is that the Dow we have now is NOT the same Dow that fell last year. We jettisoned GM and C for CSCO and TRV - a very good trade that added about 70 points to the index and makes the Dow hard to plot. …
Tags: DOW, Nasdaq, NYSE, Russell, S&P
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by Chart School - November 13th, 2009 8:18 pm
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
They got the Dollar General IPO out the door and a few more deals were done so its "Mission Accomplished" for Wall Street. The SP 500 looks to be completing a hand off to the retail crowd of overpriced paper in this cycle of the price pump. Time to dump the bids and let it drop, with maybe one more push higher at most to suck in a little more money from the productive economy, or at least what is left of it.
Be aware. This rally is a ponzi scheme thinly disguised even by US Wall Street standards. But do not try and get in front of it, to short it prematurely.
The Obama administration is as asleep at the switch and coopted by its masters in New York as was the prior administration’s regulators under Chris Cox, and that is a real accomplishment in a failure to reform.
People forget what the markets were like in the late 1970’s when the pits were dead and the average person wanted nothing to do with the US equity markets. The creation of 401k’s and more gambling tables like the options exchanges helped to perk things up. This latest generation of jokers will not stop until they have trashed the markets once again.
Expect more token reforms like position limits out of this crew in key commodities, with loopholes big enough for a vampire squid to slip through without inconvenience like the other ‘reforms’ being crafted by Barney, Tim, Larry, and Chris.
America, what are you becoming?
"How are the mighty fallen, and their devices of empire perished…"
[click on charts for larger images]
Tags: cash flow, Obama, S&P, volume, Wall Street
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by Phil - November 9th, 2009 8:18 am
"The problem is all inside your head", G20 said to me
The economy’s an easy fix if you don’t want to wait
All we need to do is globally inflate
There must be fifty ways to dump the dollar
G20 said it’s really not our habit to deflate
Furthermore, we have elections and the voters hate to wait
So we’ll indebt ourselves, buy lowering the rates
There must be fifty ways to dump the dollar
Fifty ways to dump the dollar
You just buy a few Yen, Wen
Push up the Pound, Brown
You buy up the troy, boys
Give Goldman the fees
Take the IMF bling, Singh
Let it drop like a rock, Barack
Act like you’re bored Jean-Claude
Let the dollar fall free
I heard they were dancing to this one at the G20 Meeting so I thought I’d share it with you. Never have so many gathered so often to accomplish so little as our G20 in the past 18 months. This weekend’s meeting of the World’s "top" Finance Ministers resulted in a split on whether to tax financial trading as part of a broader strategy to ensure the global economy’s expansion is less crisis-prone. The idea of the levy was to prevent excessive risk-taking and fund future bank rescues but US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner said trying to get the banks to behave is "not something we’re prepared to support."
That was all the Gang of 12 needed to hear and the commodity markets went wild with the guarantee of no additional regulation on the horizon and the dollar was taken down to new lows in overnight trading, plunging to $1.50 to the Euro and $1.685 to the Pound, over 2% off Friday’s lows. They Yen Rose back to under 90 to the Dollar and the Nikkei, of course, did not like that one bit and an early rally turned into a flatline for the day. The rest of the global markets, however, were off to the races with Europe up 1.5% at 8 am and the US futures up over a point as well as gold flies to $1,110 an ounce and oil heads back to $78.50, up $2 from Friday’s low.
Of course, doing nothing to prevent excessive speculation by the "too big to fail" crowd isn’t all the G20 didn’t accomplish this weekend (which is it for the year now). They also failed to do anything to get China’s Yuan off the dollar peg so the falling dollar is still great for China, who export far more than they import. Not wanting to stop there by accidentally…
Tags: carry trade, CHINA, Dollar, DOW, G20, Geithner, Gordon Brown, Hang Seng, Nikkei, S&P
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by Chart School - November 3rd, 2009 11:30 am
Adam Hewison at Market Club discusses the S&P’s latest moves in this new "highly technical" video.
In our last video on the S&P 500 (10/27), I indicated that this market may have topped out for the year. Today’s action puts in place a weekly “Trade Triangle” which indicates that a temporary or a permanent top is now in place for this market.
In this latest video, I share some ideas that could potentially come into play for this market. Not only do I have some downside targets in mind, but I also see a pattern that could evolve in the next several weeks which will confirm that we’ve made a serious high in this market.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
p.s. To take advantage of Market Club’s Free email trading course, click here.
Tags: charts, free trading course, market club, S&P
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by Chart School - October 28th, 2009 11:59 am
Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?
Courtesy of Market Club’s Adam Hewison
There is compelling evidence that we may have seen a top in the S&P index. In my new short video, I show you the evidence that I have found which may point a correction in this index. While the S&P index needs to put in more work to create a major top, there are early signs that this may be happening. I think when you watch this video you will come to the same conclusion as I did in regards to this market.
Click here to watch the video. >>
p.s. I also got word from Adam at Market Club wondering whether Gold might be topping out.
He wrote "Big moves and the technicals are really lining up for something huge. But don’t take my word for it, watch
this new video called ‘Is this the TOP in Gold?’"
Tags: equity markets, Gold, market club, S&P, top, videos
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by Chart School - October 1st, 2009 1:15 pm
Adam Hewison at Market Club has a new video out discussing the "divergences" taking place in the S&P 500 right now.
Adam uses the MACD as an indicator to highlight non-confirmations between price and the MACD (or other oscillator-type indicator). Divergences occur when a market makes a new high (or low) but the MACD indicator fails to confirm it.
In the video, he demonstrates divergences that didn’t work out, showing what to look for, and what to do if your divergence fails.
Click here to watch DIVERGENCE. >>
Adam also sent a couple videos a few days ago on the dollar and on gold.
Check them out here:
The Dollar Makes a Major Low in Q4 of 2011
Gold, It’s All Falling Into Place (update on Adam’s last Gold video)
Enjoy!
Ilene
Tags: Divergence, market club, S&P
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by Chart School - September 16th, 2009 11:35 pm
September 16, 2009
Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.
Hotel California
The Eagles
Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.
Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.
Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>
Tags: Dave Fry, Dave's Daily, Market Comment, S&P
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March 15th, 2010 7:53 pm
Courtesy of George Washington
Instead of going into a lengthy analysis about the pros and cons of Chris Dodd's financial reform bill, I'll let the Senator speak for himself:
This legislation will not stop the next crisis from coming. No legislation can...
What Dodd is really saying is that there's no use in doing any of the things which all of the top independent economists and financial experts say need to be done to stabilize the economy. See this, this and this.
Poor old Wall Street has to become a more from Tyler
March 15th, 2010 6:25 pm
CONSTRUCTIVE PULLBACK COULD CREATE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES
Courtesy of David Grandey at All About Trends
The S&P 500 hit resistance at 1150 last week and is now pulling back. It's all about the trend channels at this point.
Bottom line this overbought condition when viewing the 60 minute charts gets worked off by either going sideways or a pullback to trend channel support.
See the S&P 500 during January? It went sideways range bound. Don't rule that out over the next week or so.
Well as you can see we are starting to work our way towards the trend channel support line. We'll either do that sideways till we catch it or down to it. Thus far the action seems corrective vs. impulsive.
Market Leaders
Some MAY be topping right here. It doesn't take a rocket s...
more from Chart School
March 15th, 2010 3:36pm
Back 0n August 21, 2008, we published an article called
Top High Priced Share Stocks, which listed all the stocks trading in excess of $100 a share, that had P/E ratios less than 20, PEG ratios less than 1, market caps above $15 billion, and all but one paid a dividend. Remember, this is just before the market took its big dump.
Surprisingly, an interesting correlation turned up. The higher the higher priced shares, the better the return, and the shares that traded close to the $100 breakpoint did the worse. All the stocks that traded under $135 per share were down, and the others were up.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) the large investment banking firm, had the highest priced shares on the list at about $154 per share. It is now trading at $175, an increase of 14%.
CNOOC Limited (CEO) is the explorer and producer of crude oil and natural gas off the coast of China ...
more from Goddess
By Andrew Wilkinson
March 15th, 2010 4:10 pm
Today’s tickers: FO, STJ, XLB, BSX, BIDU, VRSN & MNKD
FO - Fortune Brands, Inc. – Shares of the holding company with subsidiaries such as Beam Global Spirits & Wine, Inc., which manufactures Jim Beam whiskey and Maker’s Mark, and Acushnet Company, the producer of Titleist golf products, rallied 2.35% during the session to reach a new 52-week high of $48.45. The increase in Fortune’s share price inspired bullish options trading on the stock today. Approximately 1,000 calls were picked up at the April $50 strike for an average premium of $0.66 apiece. But, the real action took place at the June $50 strike where nearly 15,500 calls were purchased for an average premium of $1.68 per contract. Investors holding the June $50 strike call options stand ready to amass profits only if Fortune Brands’ shares rall...
more from Andrew
March 15th, 2010 6:49 pm
By Ilene
Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second. All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not. Click here to see all the sells.
Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/
more from Insider
March 15th, 2010 8:55 am
This post is for live trades and daily comments.
To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here
- Optrader
...
more from OpTrader
About Phil:
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Learn more About Phil >>
About Ilene:
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(blogroll, archives,
more).
Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and
content sharing
programs.
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