Posts Tagged ‘SPY Chart’

Walking on Quicksand

Courtesy of Andy Dufresne at Zero Hedge

“So why have you not written anything lately?” Deadhead asked me on one of our “groupie” chat sessions. Those NC-17 chat sessions are da bomb. You get to see Cheeky Bastard in full force ODed on caffeine and the rest—Lizzy36, thurWopr, TitanTrad, nopat, LesterB—with occasional pokes by Marla. That all would change as the chat goes mainstream, but it was fun while it lasted.

“Because I have not had anything to say”. “ This “wash, rinse, and repeat” cycle as Robo likes to describe it was getting a little boring. When Tyler tells you that bots are trading this market, he is not making it up. The bots seem to have surrendered this week (or gotten instructions to sell mercilessly).

SPY chart

Last week we made a high of 1101 on the S&P 500; on Friday we traded down to 1033. We had a huge down week and closed near the low of the day. This is also a low-tick Friday close that happens to mark the end of the month, meaningful in my book. The VIX went from 20 last week to over 30 this week. Volume is exploding to the downside… Sometimes when the market speaks the market screams. Right now, it is screaming.

Yes, I know every dip has been a gift to buy in this bear market rally. But what has rallied the most is the biggest garbage—AIG, Citi, FifthThird, Fannie and Freddie. Some of those idiotic moves are now unwinding. They will unwind more…

In my opinion, banks should lead this market lower. The relative performance against the S&P 500 is rolling over (above). Throwing a TARP over an insolvent banking system may create a spectacular bear market rally, but that is as far as it will go. Bear market rallies tend to unwind, completely… For an example what a bear market rally looks like in a particular stock see BAC. It will break 10, again…

No one can tell you with precision when S&P 500 at 666 will be retested, but it may be in 2010. I don’t have high hopes that 666 will hold. The US economic model was built on rising leverage ratios for consumers and the banking system is dependent on credit growth…
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Recent Failed Sell Signals and Short Squeezes in the SPY

Recent Failed Sell Signals and Short Squeezes in the SPY

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to give an updated look at the recent post entitled “If History Repeats, Will it Mean New High for S&P 500?“  As we see today, the answer is overwhelmingly “yes” as I suspected would be the case when I wrote that post on October 6th.

Let’s take an updated look now that ‘history has indeed repeated’ and also step inside the three most recent “short squeezes” on the SPY and S&P 500.

Starting with an updated look at the SPY Daily chart:

SPY Chart

In the prior post, I mentioned that the pattern looked eerily similar to the prior “surprise” rallies that were fueled in part by short-covering (buying pressure to exit positions with losses).  The yellow highlighted regions reflect the “short squeeze” while the red regions represent valid and classic short-sale signals (be they from momentum or volume divergences, and/or breaking beneath the 20 day EMA).

These ‘failed sell signals’ started with the July ‘breaking’ of the widely publicized Head and Shoulders pattern which led to a massive short-squeeze (so many people were 100% convinced the market was going to break to new lows from this pattern).

From there, buyers have invalidated (or busted/broken) three additional short-sell (swing trade) signals, resulting in snap rallies to break to new 2009 highs each time.

Let’s step inside the highlighted zones above and see them on a plain 60min chart:

(Click for Full-Size Image)

Not only were there valid divergences, but there were large downside (morning) gaps and strong selling days that preceded the reversals to the upside, which tells us that shorts were entering positions, and as the market -for whatever reason – began to reverse, an “avalanche” occurred as prices rose, which triggered out stop-losses and drew in fresh buyers.

Notice the swift upside gaps and strong up bars in each of the highlighted regions, especially the current region which began on October 5th.

What is the implication?

As I mentioned in the previous post, odds strongly favored a retest or breaking of the 2009 high which occurred today (a re-test).  Should price continue to nudge slightly higher beyond $108.03 in the SPY and 1,081 in the S&P 500, then we will see more short-sellers be stopped out which will create further upside ‘bursts.’

This is…
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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Dave’s Daily Market Comment,

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 20, 2009

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You can’t argue with new highs. The only thing missing in this rally is you since volume is incredibly light. Therefore, the only conclusion is computers are trading against one another. Friday’s volume was as low as a typical half day of trading during the Christmas holiday break. But this is the way things are now and we must accept it and deal with it. Stocks rose today on continued momentum from the usual “better than expected” theme and CIT being taken care of by its own creditors supposedly. It does make one wonder at the arbitrary and random nature of bailouts giving rise to conflict of interest accusations…. 

SPY chart 

 

The volume is light but those still involved have things nicely under control. The HAL 9000s aren’t as idle as individual investors in my opinion. For an inside look at how these machines run markets please review these links that support Da Boyz in their enterprise here, here and perhaps here as well. These are eye-openers for sure…

For the full Dave’s Daily Market Comment, go here.

 


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A Lesson on Intraday Triangles and Divergences

A Lesson on Intraday Triangles and Divergences

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

The current S&P 500 60-minute structure (and SPY) gives us valuable lessons in two ascending triangle breaks and multi-swing divergences.  Let’s see what we can learn from this chart.

SPY Chart

In classic technical analysis, you are taught that ascending triangles (which there are two examples on this chart) are expected to break to the upside.

However, in today’s markets, my suggestion is to take triangles for exactly what they are – consolidation patterns as evidenced by the “Price Alternation” Principle.  Generally, a triangle breaks in the direction of the prevailing trend but doesn’t always give a tradeable edge.

The edge from triangles comes from expecting an ‘expansion’ or impluse swing/move once a clean break has occurred and trading in that direction.

We see in this example that price cleanly broke out of the triangles with gaps… and though you may have thought you were late to the party, odds favored lower prices yet to come due to the expectation for range expansion.

Moving on from triangles to divergences….

We see two examples of a ‘three push’ or multi-swing divergence as we turn the corner into July – both of which preceded tradeable price reversal swings (including this last swing up, which I mentioned as a likely course of action in last Friday’s “Idealized Trades Daily” report).

Generally, when you get a triple-swing divergence, price will form a reversal swing in the direction momentum is building.  I wanted to highlight these chart examples as lessons to you.  Each day, I share in-depth “Teaching Moments” and how to recognize trade set-ups and type of day function in my “Idealized Trades” Daily Reports, which also allows me to share my bias and expectations (along with levels to watch) in the upcoming trading day.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 

 


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Zero Hedge

ECB May Have Only €220 Billion In QE Left If The Hawks Get Their Way

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After seemingly sending out trial balloons (via Bloomberg and Reuters simultaneously) on tapering last Thursday, which had almost zero impact (see “ECB Reportedly Considering Slashing QE in Half in January, EURUSD Shrugs), Draghi’s minions have been busy again.

“Central bank officials familiar with the matter” ...



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Phil's Favorites

The pull of energy markets - and legal challenges - will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

 

The pull of energy markets – and legal challenges – will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

Courtesy of Hari OsofskyPennsylvania State University and Hannah WisemanFlorida State University

Grid operators set the prices for energy markets and are structured to take the lowest prices – a disadvantage for coal and nuclear power. CC BY

On Oct. 10, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt ...



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ValueWalk

Indo-US Obnoxious Stance On CPEC: A Critical Appraisal

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Since  the beginning of work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC),  India is quite open in opposing this mega Project and now the US has also shown its weight behind India by saying that it too believes the route of corridor passes through a disputed territory — a reference to Northern areas of Pakistan. The statement has come at a time when Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was in Washington and held series of talks with the US officials to normalize the tense relations. This new stance has started another debate and is undoubtedly going to further damage the bilateral ties, as it is profusely obvious now that US envision a greater role for India in the region. Pakistan and China are wo...



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Chart School

Market Cycle Top?

Courtesy of Declan.

About four years ago I went to a Bloomberg hosted talk on Market Cycles. I have been wracking my brain and Google trying to find the presentation and speaker name (which was available on line) but I thought the talk interesting enough to market in my Google calendar the date for the New Moon in October 2017, which was a focus point convergence of a number of market cycles and potentially a significant market top event (the countdown clock in the sidebar). The years have since ticked by and we are not just a couple of days from the October 2017 New Moon. The market has at least cooperated by sitting at new all-time highs but whether this evolves into a major top remains to be seen. I'm mad with myself that I can't find in my pinboard or delicious bookmarks the link so all I can say is the day will soon be upon us ...

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Insider Scoop

The BLUE And The BOLD; Analyst Suggests Pair Trade Ahead Of Year-End Catalysts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE 30 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 16, 2017 ...

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Digital Currencies

WTF is the Blockchain?

 

Source: TechiesPad

...

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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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