Posts Tagged
‘stock market crash’
by ilene - February 1st, 2010 2:28 pm
Courtesy of Ellen Brown at Web of Debt
We are witnessing an epic battle between two banking giants, JPMorgan Chase (Paul Volcker) and Goldman Sachs (Rubin/Geithner). The bodies left strewn on the battleground could include your pension fund and 401K.
The late Libertarian economist Murray Rothbard wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players. No popular third party candidate had a real chance at winning, because the bankers had the exclusive power to create the national money supply and therefore held the winning cards.
In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its speculative practices in the 1920s. In 1928, it launched the Goldman Sachs Trading Corp., a closed-end fund similar to a Ponzi scheme. The fund failed in the stock market crash of 1929, marring the firm’s reputation for years afterwards. Former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin came from Goldman, and current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rose through the ranks of government as a Rubin protégé. One commentator called the U.S. Treasury “Goldman Sachs South.”
Goldman’s superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to manipulate markets. Formerly just an investment bank, in 2008 Goldman magically transformed into a bank holding company. That gave it access to the Federal Reserve’s lending window; but at the same time it remained an investment bank, aggressively speculating in the markets. The upshot was that it can now borrow massive amounts of money at virtually 0% interest, and it can use this money not only to speculate for its own account but to bend markets to its will.
But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking
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Tags: Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson, JPMorgan, Morgans, Murray Rothbard, Politics, Robert Rubin, Rockefellers, Rubin, stock market crash, Summers, Timothy Geithner, too big to fail banks, Volcker
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by Phil - September 7th, 2009 7:13 am
Happy anniversary market crash!
One year ago, in September, the market started falling in earnest. A lot of people were caught by surprise by that drop as many thought we had just had a major correction and the worst was over. We had bounced off 10,800 on July 14th and had made it all the way back to touch 12,000 on August 14th but that day I warned my members in the morning post:
We’re really through the looking glass when you see investors stampede right back into oil and other commodity stocks at the first sign of a bounce off a 20% drop. I guess they’ve never seen a pullback off 20% before so it makes sense that Cramer would hit the BUYBUYBUY button on anything that smells like crude. I wish I had access to the tapes of all these same idiots telling you to BUYBUYBUY housing stocks and mortgage companies when they made their first bounce on the way to 80% losses.
It’s not just oil that is expensive, now it has to compete for consumer dollars with food and airline fares and tobacco prices and consumer goods etc. Oil was able to bubble up because people were enjoying a robust economy and it was the ONLY thing that was rising out of control. Metals began to follow it as that didn’t affect the average person but then companies had to start passing on the increased costs and the banks stopped lending money and the consumers were forced to stop using their home’s equity (if there was any left) like a piggy bank and *poof,* suddenly there isn’t enough money for oil. This isn’t going to change because there’ s a hurricane or a shut down pipeline or anything else.
Oil was trading at a still ridiculous $115 a barrel that day, down from $147 on July 1st but still choking the life out of the economy. We were very bearish on oil and natural gas ($14 at the time) as the fundamentals simply didn’t support the price of oil at $115 as much as they didn’t support $147 a month earlier. I had gone negative on oil too early though, as we thought $120 was surely the top back in May. Sometimes fundamentals can get you too ahead of the market. Our man Ben was between a rock and a hard place as he HAD to do something to…
Tags: AIG, DXD, FNM, FRE, FXE, FXY, GLD, GS, JPM, Oil Spike, QQQQ, SDS, SKF, stock market crash, VIX, VLO, WM, X
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by ilene - August 13th, 2009 2:16 pm
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In this article, Mish refers to a post by John Hussman reprinted here several days ago.
Courtesy of Mish
John Hussman is nearly always a great read and his post on Post-Crash Dynamics is no exception. Here are a few snips.
If you look carefully at the economic data that shows improvement, and correct for the impact of government outlays, it is difficult to find anything but continued deterioration in private demand and investment. What we do see is a government that has run what is now a trillion dollar deficit year-to-date, representing some 7% of GDP. That sort of tab will undoubtedly buy some amount of Cool-Aid, but it has been something of a disappointment to watch how eagerly investors have guzzled it down. This is like somebody borrowing money from their Uncle and then celebrating that their income has gone up.
Moreover, it might be enticing to look at a chart of the S&P 500 and envision a quick return to 2007 highs and beyond, but it is important to recognize that those highs were based on profit margins about 50% above historical norms, combined with an elevated P/E multiple of about 19 against those earnings. Even if the economy is poised for a sustained recovery here, the belief that those joint outliers will be quickly re-established goes against historical precedent.
Post-Crash Dynamics
click on chart for sharper image
When markets crashes are coupled with changes in the fundamentals that supported the preceding bubble – as we observed in the post-1929 market, the gold market of the 1980′s, and the post-1990 Japanese market, and currently observe in the deflation of the recent debt bubble – they typically do not recover quickly. Indeed, the hallmark of these post-crash markets is the very extended sideways adjustment that they experience, generally for many years.
The above chart shows the length of time stock markets may go nowhere following a crash. The annotations in bright red are mine, and the picture is not a pretty one. I have posted a similar chart of the Nikkei many times.
Two Lost Decades
The Japanese Stock Market is about 25% of what it was close to 20 years ago! Yes, I know, the US is not Japan, that deflation can’t happen
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Tags: John Hussman, Post-Crash Dynamics, stock market crash
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February 11th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain
"The privileged have regularly invited their own destruction with their greed."
John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty
"Psychopaths have a grandiose self-structure which demands a scornful and detached devaluation of others, in order to ward off their envy toward the good perceived in other people."
“He will choose you, disarm you with his words, and control you with his presence. He will delight you with his wit and his plans. He will show you a good time but you will always get the bill. He will smile and deceive you, and he will scare you with his eyes.
And when he is through with you, and he will be through with you, he will desert you and take with him your innocence and your pride. You...
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February 11th, 2012 3:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The 2012 rally slowed last week as the average gain of our basket of eight markets dropped from 2.01% the previous week to a flat finish of 0.06%. Geographic rotation was the dominant pattern, with the world leadership moving from Europe to the Asia Pacific. Thus, the top performing Nikkei 225 had been the worst performer at the end of the previous week, while the three European indexes were demoted from stellar to cellar. The S&P 500 again finished near the middle of the pack, but in the spirit of the overall slowdown, a finish near the middle was a week-over-week close (fractionally) in the red.
The adjacent table shows the 2012 year-to-date performance of our gang of eight. Three markets have maintained their double-digit gains at the end of six weeks, with the BSE SENSEX overtaking the DAXK (i.e., the DAX ex dividends) for the lead with the Hang Seng in...
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February 11th, 2012 3:18 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.
(Note - I got an invitation from Tyler this morning to contribute to ZeroHedge, which completely made my day. I've got a little blog called the Slope of Hope, wrapping up its 7th year. I hope to become a regular here over at ZH; thanks, Tyler!)
Most of you have probably already seen the bullgasm happening over at Barron's. Here's their cover for the week:
...
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February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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