Posts Tagged ‘STX’

Tempting Toppy Tuesday – 7th Time’s a Charm?

SPX WEEKLYWelcome back!  

Not just from your holiday weekend but welcome back to the top of the S&P as we attempt our 7th breakout of the year.  That's right, a month never goes by when we don't have a new rally that takes us back to the top of the channel, nor does a month go by when we don't re-test the bottom of the channel either – but let's ignore that as it's unpleasant.  

Interestingly, as you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, there have only been 9 positive weeks out of 19 in 2014 but oh boy did they make them count – with almost every one of them setting a new record – before the selling resumed.  Despite all these "records" being set, the average capital allocation strategy hasn't performed all that well in 2014, so far:

Thank goodness we're not pursuing any of those!  Thank goodness also that we didn't give our money to any hedge fund managers, as hedge funds are off to their worst start of the year since the Financial Crisis. Not listed here is our "Be the House – Not the Gambler" strategy, which we will be reviewing live today at 12:15 EST in a Live Webinar (sign up here for free). 

Selling risk to others in our Member Portfolios has given us 10%+ gains for year (so far).  In fact, the only strategy we agreed with from the above chart was gold, which we bet heavily (along with DBA) at the beginning of the year.  We were still knocking it out of the park in early May, with 40 of our 47 trade ideas in early may coming up winners already (see our May Trade Review).  

Remember, this isn't about making good picks, per se – it's about having a good strategy that gives you a high probability of success – even when you are wrong about a trade.   BEING THE HOUSE and selling risk (through options) to others is the closest thing we get to a "sure thing" in trading.  It's not fast, it's not sexy - but it works!  

Actually,…
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Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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ONEOK Options In Focus As Shares Spike

Today’s tickers: OKE, STX & SPR

OKE - ONEOK, Inc. – Shares in ONEOK are ripping higher on Thursday, rallying as much as 22% to a near three-month high of $52.32 during morning trading after the company said it plans to spinoff its natural gas distribution business. Options activity on OKE this morning suggests some traders may be taking profits given the strong move in the shares today. Call open interest in the August expiry options is greatest at the $45 strike, with 5,280 open contracts. A review of time and sales data for the Aug $45 calls indicates most of the contracts were likely purchased for an average premium of $0.525 each the morning of July 8th when shares in OKE were hovering around $39.63. The sharp move in the price of the underlying today pushed premium on the Aug $45 strike calls up to as high as $6.80 during the first half of the session. Upwards of 4,500 of the $45 calls have changed hands today, with the bulk of the volume sold for an average premium of $4.59 each, or roughly nine times as much as the $0.525 average premium paid earlier this month. Meanwhile, options traders positioning for shares in the name to extend gains in the near term snapped up around 1,000 calls at each of the Aug $50 and $55 strikes for average premiums of $1.83 and $0.85 each, respectively. ONEOK is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the close on July 30th. Shares in ONEOK are currently off their highest level of the session, but continue to stand up 18.5% on the day at $50.75 as of 12:20 p.m. ET.

STX - Seagate Technology Plc – Options changing hands on Seagate Technology today suggest some traders may be positioning for a near-term rebound in the…
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Fall-Back Thursday – Time To Get Real?

Do you REALLY think this will go on forever?

On the right is the AAPL quarterly chart but it could also be the quarterly chart of SHLD, NFLX, FOSL, STX or PCLN (Bespoke Chart), all of whom are up more than AAPL (which is up 50%) in 2012.  We've discussed PCLN as one of my favorite shorts and we had a good discussion in Member chat last night comparing PCLN to EXPE, who drop the same amount of cash to the bottom line (before buybacks and dividends) but have just 1/8th of the market cap of PCLN.   

Sure you can say that PCLN is twice as good as EXPE (it isn't, but you can say it) but can you say it's 4 times as good?  How about 8 times?  EXPE nets $500M a year – 8 times that is $4Bn – more money than the entire travel sector makes!  How, exactly, will PCLN grow into that valuation?  Eliminate all competition and then grow the sector by 50%?  Well, that's pretty much what AAPL did but how many AAPLs can you have in one market?  

THAT is the problem my friends.  Aside from the macro concerns we discussed in yesterday's post, we have a sort of value mania that is driven by the very real success of one company, much the way we had a dot com boom in the late 90s driven by the very real success of just a few companies.  Back then, everyone was the next QCOM, YHOO, MSFT, CSCO – whichever category you were supposed to be the best.  Qualcomm, in fact, was the best performing tech stock of 1999, gaining 2,619% that year and finishing right about $100.  By the end of July, 2002, they were trading at $10 but hey, what a ride!  

In fact, here's the CNet story from Dec 29th, 1999 titled "Qualcomm Jumps on $1,000 Price Target" and coming on the heels of "Qualcomm to offer Net2Phone services in Eudora" it's no wonder people were super-excited!  AMZN was "only" up 25% that year to $100 but Jeff Bezos was Time's Man of the Year and yes, their business has been growing at an amazing rate for the past 12 years and they have crushed their competition and dominated the sector – and gained less than 6%…
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Call Selling Ensues On NRG Energy

Today’s tickers: NRG, SCG & STX

NRG - NRG Energy, Inc. – The wholesale power generation company popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning due to heavier-than-usual trading traffic in its call options. Shares in NRG Energy, Inc. are down 2.7% at $21.66 in early-afternoon trade, outperforming the S&P 500 Index which is off 3.7%. Investors driving up September contract call volume on the stock do not expect shares in the Princeton, NJ-based company to rebound with any conviction ahead of expiration next month. Options players exchanged more than 4,700 calls at the September $23 strike against previously existing open interest of just 875 contracts. It looks like all of the contracts were sold at a premium of $0.50 each. Call sellers walk away with the full $0.50 in premium as long as the options expire worthless with shares trading below $23.00 at expiration. Selling spread to the September $24 strike where some 244 calls sold for a premium of $0.30 apiece. If these are naked shorts, traders face losses should the stock rally above the effective breakeven prices of $23.50 and $24.30 at expiration, respectively.

SCG - SCANA Corp. – The holding company for subsidiaries engaged in the generation and sale of electricity to retail customers is a bright spot in an otherwise dark day for equities. Shares in Cayce, SC-based Scana Corp. are currently up 1.5% at $39.18 after dealReporter cited industry sources that said the company may consider putting itself up for sale. One options strategist expecting shares in the name to rally in the months ahead initiated a debit call spread, buying 1,500 calls at the November $40 strike for a premium of $1.10 each, and selling the same number of calls up at the November $45 strike at a premium of…
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Weekend Reading – Reviewing the Reviews

 I am still trying to get more bullish

I was thinking about writing something cute like I resolve to get more bullish but that would be wrong.  I try, in my own humble way, to "get" the market right.  That means I am not bullish or bearish but Truthish (to further botch Stephen Colbert's use of the word) and, as Buddah says: "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting."  Confucious reminds us that there are three methods by which we may learn wisdom:  "First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."

In that spirit, we will spend the day in reflection so that we are better able to start on that long road to the truth so that we will be better able to imitate the things that will work in the year to come while trying to avoid making mistakes that will give us bitter experiences.  

This post is not about me – We had a fantastic year and I've already given some outlook for 2011 back on the 19th in that weekend's "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future" and our current position is short-term bearish in the Jan-April time-frame, looking for a pullback to at least 1,200 on the S&P and possibly back to 1,150.  

After that, we are expecting a return to steady gains but without the irrational exuberance we're currently experiencing.  So no, I am not bearish – I simply think we've gotten ahead of ourselves.  Since we don't know where the rally train will stop, we have our "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" from Dec 11th, which were a set of very bullish, highly levered plays where a little bet can pay off a lot if we simply hold our long-established breakout levels.   

How much is "a lot"?  Well my GE trade idea, for example, was to sell the 2013 $12.50 puts for $1.10 (net $1.15 in ordinary margin according to TOS) and to use that money to buy the 2012 $17.50/20 bull call spread for .95, which was a net .15 credit on a $2.50 spread
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Demand for Puts Pops at Regions Financial as Shares Slide Lower

Today’s tickers: RF, YHOO, ORLY, CTV, HNZ, STX, SMH & GT

RF - Regions Financial Corp. – Bears are piling into put options on Regions Financial Corp. today after Fitch Ratings cut Alabama’s biggest lender by two levels to –BBB, citing concerns the firm may post additional losses. Regions’ credit rating was also downgraded two notches to Ba3 from Ba1 at Moody’s yesterday. Shares have been hammered lower over the past four weeks, and today declined as much as 7.22% to touch an intraday- and new 52-week low of $5.14. Today’s low of $5.14 marks a 46.5% decline since October 21, 2010, when shares touched an intraday high of $7.53. Investors expecting shares to extend losses over the next several months purchased large numbers of put options on the stock. Bearish players picked up at least 9,000 puts at the December $5.0 strike for an average premium of $0.28 each and purchased approximately 10,000 puts at the lower December $4.0 strike at an average premium of $0.20 apiece. Lower-strike put buyers are positioned to profit should Regions’ shares slide another 26% below today’s intraday low point of $5.14 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $3.80 by expiration day in December. Pessimism spread to the January 2011 $4.0 strike where another 3,800 put options were coveted at an average premium of $0.20 a-pop. The surge in demand for put options coupled with growing uncertainty regarding the fate of RF’s shares going forward helped lift the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility 27.4% to 90.77% by 3:50 pm in New York.

YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – Shares in Yahoo! are up 5.35% to $17.01 as of 2:40 pm in New York, but earlier rallied as much as 6.315% to hit an intraday high of $17.17. Call options on…
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Goldilocks and the 300,000,000 Bears

Talk about feeling outnumbered!

As the guy in Airplane kind of said – "Looks like I pricked the wrong week to get bullish!"  Of course, as I often tell people I am neither bullish nor bearish – I'm rangeish – and our range is the 5% band between around Dow 10,200 and S&P 1,070, which takes us as low as Dow 9,690 and S&P 1,016 and as high as Dow 10,710 and S&P 1,123 before I really "flip flop" my positions.  Despite the fact that this is the range we predicted last October and is the range we've been in (other than a brief trip to 11,200, which we shorted the hell out of) all year – people still seem to find it necessary to call me either bullish or bearish as we navigate the channel.

I suppose I have been HOPEFUL for the month (now heading into day 14) that we will finally make a little progress and establish a higher floor at our usual mid-points while, at the same time, the MSM have decided that we are all going to die.  That does make me kind of bullish by comparison doesn't it?  We are mainly in cash and we are well hedged to the downside so, unless we are REALLY heading much, much lower, there is little profit in speculating to the downside, other than our quick trades.  As PT Barnum once said:

"A man who is all caution, will never dare to take hold and be successful; and a man who is all boldness, is merely reckless, and must eventually fail. A man may go on "’change" and make fifty, or one hundred thousand dollars in speculating in stocks, at a single operation. But if he has simple boldness without caution, it is mere chance, and what he gains to-day he will lose to-morrow. You must have both the caution and the boldness, to insure success." 

Balance is the key to long-term success and we've had many conversations about that in Member Chat.  Our goal is to be neither bullish or bearish but rather to sell premium to both the bulls and the bears when conditions permit us.  As Ravalos said Friday in Member Chat:

"Ever since I became member (actually before I became member I


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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Where Will Economic Indicators Lead Us?

Isn't this fun?

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off.  How ridiculous is that?  He didn't say one thing that he didn't already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say "the markets were concerned by the Chairman's comments" is beyond stupid – it's criminal negligence

That's Can Not Be Correct and other media outlets are supposed to have something that is called a Public Trust, which means that broadcast licenses are a national resource that are meant to be used responsibly.  I know, that almost sounds like a joke but it's not – we used to care about these things…  Now the public is treated like cattle and is simply stampeded to the slaughterhouse at the whim of the media and the Big Money that pulls their strings and our equally puppet Government spend their days fighting over who gets to wear the captian's hat on the Titanic.  Maybe it is a joke - too bad it's on us!  

That's why we keep things light over at PSW – we know it's a crock but, as long as it's a crock we can figure out, we're happy.  I mentioned yesterday that Tuesday morning's Alert to Members had 2 long plays on the Russell that made over 40% each in a day.  Well yesterday we shorted the Russell at 9:42 with TNA $32 puts $1.60 and IWM $60 puts at $1.32.  It wasn't as exciting as Tuesday but the TNA puts made $2 (25%) and the IWM puts performed much better, also hitting $2 for a 50% gain on the day.  We have now learned that TNA and TZA, despite looking sexy, are not as good to play for direction as the IWM puts and calls.  This is due to the wide bid ask spread and low liquidity, which means the Market Maker can rob you blind by stealing nickels and dimes from you every time you buy and sell – this is something you should always be aware of when trading options on ultra-ETFs. 

We
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Frenzied Bearish Options Activity Ensues as Visa, MasterCard Shares Take a Big Hit

Today’s tickers: V, MA, JPM, COF, EEM, STX, MDC, DPS, MYL & LEN

V – Visa, Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest payments network are down sharply by 7.75% to stand at $68.92 as of 2:55 pm (ET) after Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D – RI) suggested Monday that the U.S. should cap interest rates on credit cards. Other credit card companies such as MasterCard and Capital One Financial Corp. are also suffering significant share price erosion this afternoon. Bearish options investors flooded the May contract with pessimistic plays, while more optimistic traders appear to be positioning for a rebound in Visa’s share price by June expiration. Investors bracing for continued bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock picked up 3,600 now in-the-money puts at the May $70 strike for an average premium of $1.15 apiece. Buying interest spread to the lower May $65 strike where 1,400 puts were purchased at an average premium of $0.36 each. Finally, uber-bearish traders scooped up 1,290 puts at the May $60 strike – the lowest strike price currently available in the front month – for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Investors long the May $60 strike puts make money if Visa’s shares plummet 13.15% from the current value of $68.92 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $59.84 by expiration on Friday. Bearish traders also ravaged May contract calls, selling roughly 7,000 lots at the May $75 strike to take in an average premium of $0.71 per contract. Investors also shed 2,000 calls at the May $70 strike to receive an average premium of $2.47 apiece. Call sellers retain the full premium received today as long shares of the underlying stock do not exceed $70.00 ahead of expiration. Finally, optimistic options investors are positioning for a rebound in the credit card company’s shares by purchasing 1,800 calls at the June $70 strike for an average premium of $4.71 each. Shares must rally 8.4% over the current price of the stock before June $70 strike call buyers start to make money above the average breakeven price of $74.71. Bullish call buying activity spread to the higher June $72.5 strike where 2,500 calls were picked up for an average premium of $3.64 per contract. Investor uncertainty, as measured by the overall reading of options implied volatility, is net up on Visa today with volatility rising 16.5% to 52.68% as…
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Phil's Favorites

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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ValueWalk

Top 15 Books On Every Investment Professionals Reading List

By Jae Jun. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The folks at SumZero, listed the top 15 books favorited by investment professionals.

As far as I know, they could only choose one book.

Benjamin Graham: I Had “Treasure in My Hands”

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Mid-Day Market Update: Crude Oil Up Over 2%; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Shares Slide

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Midway through trading Tuesday, the Dow traded up 0.10 percent to 21,430.46 while the NASDAQ declined 0.29 percent to 6,228.91. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.03 percent to 2,439.75.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Energy shares rose by 0.67 percent in the US market on Tuesday. Top gainers in the sector included Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZN), Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (NYSE: TOO), and SunCoke Energy Inc (NYSE: SXC).

In trading on Tuesday, technol...



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Zero Hedge

Seattle Min Wage Hikes Crushing The Poor: 6,700 Jobs Lost, Annual Wages Down $1,500 - UofW Study

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just last week we noted that McDonalds launched plans to replace 2,500 human cashiers with digital kiosks like the ones below (see: McDonalds Is Replacing 2,500 Human Cashiers With Digital Kiosks: Here Is Its Math):

Of course, no matt...



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Chart School

Kelly Heros Sgt. OddBall philosophy to read stock charts

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sgt OddBall said these famous words "Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning!".



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readtheticker.com PnF charts allows the chart reader the judge price waves of both positive and negative.

Waves are judged 3 (power), 2 (significant), 1 (above average). Blue is up, Red is down.

For each PnF wave you should judge: breaking into new ground or not, thrust, volume, net volume, strength (3, 2 or 1).

In an uptrend (mark up): You wish to see blue positive 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into n...

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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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