Posts Tagged ‘Swedish Model’

BIS: WE HAVE FAILED TO LEARN FROM THE NORDIC CRISIS

BIS: WE HAVE FAILED TO LEARN FROM THE NORDIC CRISIS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The BIS recently released an excellent paper comparing the current crisis to the Nordic crisis.  This is a particularly interesting case study because the Nordic credit crisis was relatively clean for a credit crisis.  Perhaps most interesting is the fact that their crisis was unfolding at the same time as the Japanese crisis.  The results, however, were dramatically different.  I believe the thoughts from the BIS are particularly interesting as I was a proponent of the harsher Swedish Model - a bit more of an Austrian economics approach to the crisis as opposed to the Japanese model of trying to ensure capitalism without losers.  In recent months the USA is looking more and more Japanese and the BIS believes it is due to our flawed response:

“Our analysis indicates that current policies have followed those (Nordic) principles in some respects, but have fallen short in other, arguably more important, ones. If anything, the authorities have intervened even earlier than in the Nordic precedent. In the current episode, the down-leg of the financial cycle had not proceeded as far and banks were further away from the point of technical insolvency. However, the underlying weakness in balance sheets has not been recognised as fully. Efforts to write down assets and induce underlying adjustment in the sector have not been as extensive. Impaired assets have been kept on balance sheets at highly uncertain, and possibly inflated, values. The conditions attached to financial support have not been as strict with respect to asset and cost reductions; if anything, they have been designed with an eye to  sustaining lending. The need to reabsorb the sector’s excess capacity has taken a back seat. All this has tended to slow down resolution.

In other words, the zombie banks live on just as they have in Japan.  But perhaps most important is the fact that the losers have not been allowed to lose.  Government intervention has only kicked the can down the road.  The BIS detailed the successful principles involved in a swift crisis response and sustainable recovery:

Principle 1: Early recognition and intervention 
P1: The nature and size of the problems should be recognised early and intervention should follow quickly.

The purpose of early recognition and intervention is to avoid a hidden deterioration in conditions that could magnify the costs of the


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Zero Hedge

Theresa May Signs Brexit Letter: What Happens Once Article 50 Is Triggered?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Moments ago, Theresa May signed the letter to European Council President Donald Truk which will invoke Article 50 and Trigger Brexit.

SUN FRONT PAGE: ‘Dover & out' #skypapers pic.twitter.com/0YtSKWlCPj

— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 28, 2017

What happens next? 

Here is a summary...



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Chart School

Rallies Come Through

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday's action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn't tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route.

The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today's action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today's gain to fix them.



The Nasdaq did today...

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ValueWalk

Following 'Repeal And Replace,' What's The Fate Of Health Care?

By Knowledge Wharton. Originally published at ValueWalk.

On March 24, President Trump and congressional Republicans pulled their proposed American Health Care Act before it could come up for a House vote, realizing it was dead on arrival. They had failed in their self-proclaimed mission to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a.k.a. Obamacare. Many Republicans have been angling to get rid of the law ever since it was enacted in 2010.

DarkoStojanovic / PixabayHealth Care

The ACA remains in place for now, but many on both sides of the aisle feel it’s far from perfect. And the day after the cancelled vote, Trump tweeted that Obamacare would...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver bear market could end here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the performance of Silver, Gold and the S&P 500 year to date. Metals and miners are off to a good start in 2017. Even though the stock market has received a good deal of attention this year, metals have done even better. Is the performance in 2017 the start of something even bigger for Silver & Gold?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

It’s been a long time since buy and holders have experienced a bull market in Silver. How long has it been? Silver has created a series of lower highs since 2011. The trend ...



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Phil's Favorites

Consumer Confidence Strongest Since December 2000: A Strong Contrarian Indicator?

Courtesy of Mish.

Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are similar measures by two different organizations. The former is from the University of Michigan, the latter is by the Conference Board.

Consumer Confidence soared to 125.6 in March, up from 116.1 in February. This is the strongest reading in over 16 years.

Bloomberg Econoday cites the strength in both the current index and the expectations index, emphasis mine.

Highlights

It was two cycles ago that the consumer confidence index has been this high, at 125.6 in March for the strongest reading ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Biggest Risk From the Dollar's Drop May Not Be What You Would Guess (Bloomberg)

Whipsawed by the greenback and confronted by U.S. policy confusion, carry trades were supposed to be a rare bright spot for investors who want to stay away from the world’s biggest reserve currency.

These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on the Trump Trade (Bloomberg)

Investors on Monday further unwound trades initiated in November resting on the idea that the election of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress meant...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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