Super Tuesday Committee Failure – So What?
by Phil - November 22nd, 2011 7:43 am
Long live the Debt! In case you are voting in the next election – here are 12 people to get rid of. Much as I may blame one party over another for this failure, they all deserve what’s coming to them for A) Pretending they were going to accomplish something and B) For not now getting up and making very strong statements denouncing the corruption in politics that make it impossible for Congress to do the Nation’s business anymore.
In case you happen to be a Fox News viewer, I will try to keep this VERY simple because, as it turns out, we now have definitive studies that prove Fox News MAKES YOU STUPID. Of course, it is possible that only stupid people watch Fox News but I know many people who think they are smart and watch Fox News so I have to blame Fox News here as do researchers at Farleigh Dickenson University who found "The results show us that there is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these questions than those who don’t watch any news at all." As I can tell you from raising my own children to be good citizens:
The biggest aid to answering correctly is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, which leads to a 6-point decrease in identifying the protesters as Republicans, and a 12-point increase in the likelihood of giving the correct answer. "Jon Stewart has not spent a lot of time on some of these issues," said Cassino. "But the results show that when he does talk about something, his viewers pick up a lot more information than they would from other news sources."
Watching Fox News, by the way, led to an 18-point disadvantage (out of 53% of all respondents) in being able to answer questions like "Were Egyptians successful in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak" or "Has the Syrian uprising been successful" but that was a Fox viewer’s area of expertise compared to having a clue of what is going on in American politics other than "Obama sucks." Tied with Daily show viewers for best informed were NPR supporters but, sadly, only 21% of Americans get their news from NPR and only 18% from the Daily Show while 64% list Fox News as one of their frequent news sources.
In another study, World Public Opinion, a project managed by…
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DiggBearish Player Initiates Ratio Put Spread at Staples
by Option Review - October 18th, 2010 5:05 pm
Today’s tickers: SPLS, XCO, THC, FTO, YHOO, ERTS, LNC & GE
SPLS - Staples, Inc. – The supplier of office products popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner late in the trading session after one investor initiated a bearish spread in the December contract. Staples’ shares are currently down 0.80% at $20.64 as of 3:15 p.m. in New York. The pessimistic player established a ratio put spread, buying 2,500 in-the-money puts at the December $21 strike for an average premium of $1.185 each, and selling 5,000 puts at the lower December $19 strike at an average premium of $0.39 apiece. The average net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.405 per contract. Thus, the investor is prepared to make money if the price of the underlying stock slips beneath the effective breakeven point on the spread at $20.595 by expiration day in December. Maximum potential profits of $1.595 per contract are available to the ratio-spreader if the office products company’s shares fall 7.945% from the current price of $20.64 to settle at $19.00 at expiration. The investor is vulnerable to losses in the event that Staples’ shares plummet far lower than he expects they will in the next several months. Losses start to accumulate for the trader if shares drop 15.7% lower and trade below the lower breakeven point at $17.405 by expiration day. Staples, Inc. is slated to report third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on November 18, 2010.
XCO - EXCO Resources, Inc. – The oil and natural gas company was visited by one long-term bullish options investor in the second half of the trading session. It looks like the trader is expecting EXCO’s shares to rally significantly by expiration day in March of 2011. Shares of the Dallas, TX-based firm are up 2.05% at…
Call Spreader Targets Ancestry.com, Inc. as Shares Soar to All-Time High
by Option Review - September 20th, 2010 4:48 pm
Today’s tickers: ACOM, DLB, S, FSIN, XLF, PDE, MED, KO & THC
ACOM – Ancestry.com, Inc. – Shares of the online family history resource surged 8.380% in afternoon trading to reach an all-time high of $22.76. The rally in Ancestry’s shares inspired one bullish options investor to purchase a plain-vanilla call spread in the February 2011 contract. It looks like the trader picked up 1,050 now in-the-money calls at the February 2011 $22.5 strike for an average premium of $2.82 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher February 2011 $30 strike at an average premium of $0.55 a-pop. Net premium paid to establish the bullish spread amounts to $2.27 per contract. Thus, the trader is poised to profit should ACOM’s shares jump 8.8% over today’s high of $22.76 to surpass the average breakeven price of $24.77 by expiration day in February. Maximum potential profits of $5.23 per contract are available to the call-spreader if ACOM’s shares rally 31.8% to exceed $30.00 by February expiration.
DLB – Dolby Laboratories, Inc. – A short strangle on the provider of products and technologies created to enhance various aspects of entertainment media indicates one options investor expects Dolby’s shares to trade within a specified range through expiration in March 2011. Shares surged 6.3% to reach an intraday high of $59.46 by 2:30 pm ET after the stock was upgraded to ‘market outperform’ from ‘market perform’ with a 12-month target share price of $69.00 at Avondale Partners LLC. It looks like the strangle-seller sold roughly 3,000 puts at the March 2011 $50 strike at a premium of $2.46 each, and shed about the same number of calls at the higher March 2011 $65 strike for a premium of $2.80 apiece. Gross premium pocketed on the transaction amounts to $5.26 per contract. The investor responsible for the trade keeps the full premium received as long as Dolby’s shares trade within the boundaries of the strike prices described through expiration day next year. The premium received acts as a limited buffer against losses in the event that, at expiration, shares fail to trade within the specified price range. However, losses start to accumulate if DLB’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $70.26, or if shares nosedive to trade below the lower breakeven point at $44.74, ahead of expiration day in March. The increase in demand for options on the stock coupled…
The Link Between Marijuana and Schizophrenia
by ilene - July 23rd, 2010 8:26 pm
Two components of marijuana have different effects on symptoms of psychosis. Delta-9 tetrahydocannabinol (THC) causes hallucinations and, in high enough doses, can cause temporary psychotic experiences, even in healthy people. Another chemical, cannabidiol (CBD), has anti-psychotic effects. Scientists hope to replicate the antipsychotic effects of CBD without triggering the risks of THC. – Ilene
The Link Between Marijuana and Schizophrenia
[click on image for TIME's photo series "The Great American Pot Smoke-Out"]
By Maia Szalavitz, courtesy of TIME
Since the days of Reefer Madness, scientists have sought to understand the complex connection between marijuana and psychosis. Cannabis can cause short-term psychotic experiences, such as hallucinations and paranoia, even in healthy people, but researchers have also long noted a link between marijuana use and the chronic psychotic disorder, schizophrenia.
Repeatedly, studies have found that people with schizophrenia are about twice as likely to smoke pot as those who are unaffected. Conversely, data suggest that those who smoke cannabis are twice as likely to develop schizophrenia as nonsmokers. One widely publicized 2007 review of the research even concluded that trying marijuana just once was associated with a 40% increase in risk of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders.
But here’s the conundrum: while marijuana went from being a secret shared by a small community of hepcats and beatniks in the 1940s and ’50s to a rite of passage for some 70% of youth by the turn of the century, rates of schizophrenia in the U.S. have remained flat, or possibly declined. For as long as it has been tracked, schizophrenia has been found to affect about 1% of the population.
One explanation may be that the two factors are coincidental, not causal: perhaps people who have a genetic susceptibility to schizophrenia also happen to especially enjoy marijuana. Still, some studies suggest that smoking pot can actually trigger the disease earlier in individuals who are predisposed, and yet researchers still aren’t seeing increases in the overall schizophrenia rate or decreases in the average age of onset.
In recent months, new research has explored some of these issues. One study led by Dr. Serge Sevy, an associate professor of psychiatry at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City, looked at 100 patients between the ages of 16 and 40 with schizophrenia, half of whom smoked marijuana. Sevy and colleagues found that among the marijuana users, 75% had…
Bears Bombard Homebuilders ETF
by Option Review - May 5th, 2010 4:16 pm
Today’s tickers: XHB, MTH, AIG, THC, RL, GPS, ITMN, EEM & EWZ
XHB – SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF – Shares of the XHB, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, are trading 3% lower this afternoon to stand at $18.29 as of 2:50 pm (ET). Pessimistic positioning by one options strategist suggests shares of the underlying fund could continue to decline ahead of June expiration. The investor initiated a three-legged options combination play, essentially selling call options to finance the purchase of a debit put spread on the fund. The pessimistic player established the trade by purchasing 12,000 puts at the June $18 strike for a premium of $0.79 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of puts at the lower June $17 strike for $0.44 each. The third leg of the transaction involved the sale of 12,000 calls at the June $20 strike for a premium of $0.36 a-pop. The investor responsible for the bearish play pockets a net credit of one penny per contract, and keeps it as long as shares trade below $20.00 through expiration day. Maximum potential profits available to the trader – including the net credit received – amount to $1.01 per contract and pad the investor’s wallet if shares of the underlying fund decline another 7.05% from the current price of $18.29 to breach the $17.00-level by June expiration.
MTH – Meritage Home Corp. – The homebuilding company, like the homebuilders ETF, enticed bearish options investors late in the trading session. Meritage Home’s shares are down sharply by 5.35% to $22.11 as of 3:00 pm (ET). But, Meritage is not the only one suffering today as shares of rival firms Pulte Group Inc., Lennar Corp and D.R. Horton, Inc., also declined significantly along with the price per share of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF. Pessimistic options players expecting MTH’s shares to continue lower in the next several months purchased at least 4,300 puts outright at the September $20 strike for a premium of $1.60 per contract. The confirmed purchase of the these contracts represents just a portion of the more than 10,000 puts exchanged at that strike today where previously open interest stood at just 377 lots. Put-buyers make money if Meritage’s shares plummet 16.75% below the current price of $22.11 to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $18.40 by September…
Tenet Healthcare Receives Bullish Three-Legged Options Combo Play
by Option Review - March 22nd, 2010 4:09 pm
Today’s tickers: THC, F, TIVO, HIG, LVS, XME, AET & SHW
THC – Tenet Healthcare Corp. – Shares of the provider of health care services surged 9.39% today to $6.29 following the passage of health-care reform legislation through the U.S. House of Representatives. Intriguing bullish options trading transpired on Tenet Healthcare during the current session as investors secured positions that yield profits if the firm’s shares continue to appreciate through expiration in January 2011. One optimistic player enacted a three-leg options combination play by selling short put options to partially finance the purchase of a debit call spread. The investor picked up 10,000 calls at the January 2011 $7.5 strike for a premium of $0.65 apiece, and sold 10,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $10 strike for $0.10 each. Next, the trader shed 10,000 puts at the January 2011 $5.0 strike for $0.55 premium apiece. The investor’s combination play was essentially enacted at zero cost because of the financing provided by the sale of higher-strike calls and out-of-the-money put options. Maximum potential profits of $2.50 per contract are available to the Tenet-bull if shares of the underlying stock jump 59% from the current price to $10.00 by expiration next year. The short position in put options implies the trader is willing to have Tenet’s shares put to him at $5.00 each should the put contracts land in-the-money ahead of expiration day in January. Options implied volatility on the stock slumped 20.9% this afternoon to 46.67% following the passage of the health care bill in the House.
F – Ford Motor Co. – Bullish options activity on the automobile manufacturer picked up as the trading day progressed amid a 4.5% rally in the price of the underlying stock to $13.90. One optimistic individual initiated a bullish risk reversal transaction in the June contract to position for continued upward momentum in the price of Ford’s shares through expiration. The investor sold 5,000 puts at the June $10 strike for a premium of $0.23 per contract in order to partially offset the cost of buying the same number of call options at the higher June $16 strike for $0.44 apiece. The net cost of the reversal play amounts to $0.21 per contract. Thus, the investor responsible for the trade stands ready to accrue profits if Ford’s shares surge 16.60% over the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $16.21 by expiration…
Wild Weekly Wrap Up – Only Halfway Through January!
by Phil - January 16th, 2010 8:29 am
Wheee, what a ride!
The week can be neatly summed up by my 1:35 comment to Members in yesterday’s chat, summed the week up quite nicely as I said: "So funny, a whole week of gains I thought were ridiculous wiped out in 4 hours." Of course it’s easy to laugh when you play the market correctly – as I had said in the morning post, we had cashed out into Thursday’s run up and planned on going bearish through the weekend but it turned out we got our sell-off early, jumping the $100K Virtual Portfolio, for example, up 12% in one day – enough to send us back to cash rather than risk a weekend reversal.
We laid the groundwork for this little sell-off in last weekend’s posts as we put up an aggressive Buy List for Members but in my regular weekend post we emphasized the need to cover our buys with "Disaster Hedges" as we were heading to the tops I had predicted when I published the "Last Charts of the Decade," where I set resistance target of Dow 10,457, S&P 1,135, Nasdaq 2,314, NYSE 7,389 and Russell 638. As you can see, I pretty much hit them on the head, other than the Dow but that’s because our year-old 5% rule calculations did not account for the change in the Dow that replaced C and GM with TRV and CVX, who added about 100 Dow points since their inclusion so we started using 10,549 this month and we’ll make it 10,557 for today’s chart, which makes perfect sense looking at this group (I added the Transports as they are fell right off our 2,000 target, giving us the early warning that things were not right):
As you can see, the 5% Rule rules! I will apologize for being such a grump this week but the rally was really starting to annoy me as it was so blatantly forced up through our levels without a proper test that is was really getting me down about the markets. I don’t mind that the markets are manipulated, that’s been going on since markets were invented – it’s stupid and destructive manipulation that bothers me, the kind that, long term, destroys more investor confidence than it builds and squanders capital resources on the "wrong" companies (and now, ETFs!).
In this case, very precious investor capital is being steered into commodities, which is…
2010 Outlook – A Tale of Two Economies
by Phil - December 27th, 2009 6:54 am
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." – Charles Dickens, 1859
Dickens famous novel (which was originally written as a weekly series in 31 installments) depicts life in the time of the French revolution but was also a parable, meant to warn the British aristocracy that they should not ingore the parallels to the social inequities that existed at the time in England. Dickens warned the nobles that the seeds of revolution were planted through unjust acts and surely there would be a time of reaping yet to come.
It is said that the French Revolution was sparked by outrage over a statement by the Queen Mary Antoinette who, when told that the peasants had no bread to eat, supposedly replied (she never actually said this) "Qu’ils mangent de la brioche" or "Then let them eat cake." It’s hard for us to imagine the impact of this statement in modern times but "peasants" were 90% of the population at the time and bread was 90% of what they ate, consuming 50% of the average family’s income (people weren’t silly enough to pay for housing back then – they just found a bit of land, bought some wood and nails and built their own homes). Brioche was a luxury combination of bread enriched with flour and butter so the statement "Qu’ils mangent de la brioche" implies both lack of caring and cluelessness on the part of the Queen.
The United States had what passes for a revolution between 2006 and 2008 as we threw out the Republicans and went with a Democrat-controlled government. While the Bush administration, the Republican Congress and Fox News may have been as clueless as a French Queen to the plight of the people – the fact of the matter is that the base pay…
Merry Christmas Eve
by Phil - December 24th, 2009 8:28 am
First of all, what are you doing here?
Why it’s Christmas Eve, Mr. Scrooge – Most global markets are having a half day so, if you are waiting for a Santa Clause rally on a half-day’s trading, you are very likely to be disappointed.
Remember Marley, who cried: "Business! Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence were all my business. The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!"
Marley was a man who worked and worked until the day he died and regretted it every day after. If you don’t believe in an afterlife and you don’t believe in leaving behind the World a better place than you found it, at least find some time for yourself so people don’t call you "a squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous old sinner!"
Those covetous old sinners in Congress passed the Health Care Bill in the Senate today with a 60-39 vote (Republican Jim Bunning did not vote against the bill but was too chicken to actually vote for it) so we can pretty much count on it moving through the House and on to Obama’s desk in the very near future. While it’s a total botch-job of a bill, at least America has taken the first civilized strep to recognizing that health care is a right and not a privilege – Tiny Tim would be very proud!
We were told by Fox that Health Care reform would destroy the universe but the market has taken the December passage of the bill very much in stride so maybe we should have just gone for it with Universal Health Care after all… Oh well, maybe next year! Meanwhile, we’ll be looking for good investing opportunities once we get a handle on the final bill but I still favor the device space (IHI, MDT, BSX, JNJ, GE, ISRG) as well as big pharma (MRK, PFE), who will be able to serve tens of millions of new customers. Hospitals (UHS, THC) should also start filling up and we always like our CELG as well as AMGN, who should also benefit from adding a population the size of England to the health care rolls right here in the USA. I’m waiting for the final bill but home health care providers (AMED,…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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