Posts Tagged ‘Trading psychology’

Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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How to Get Off the Performance Roller Coaster

How to Get Off the Performance Roller Coaster

Munich Oktoberfest Preparations

By Brett Steenbarger 

Do you find yourself on a performance roller coaster? This is a situation in which you make money for a while, begin to think you have it all figured out, only to fall back, lose money, and feel like a rookie all over again. 

A while back, I wrote about the performance roller coaster and some of the emotional factors that sustain it. The gist of that important post was that how we process wins and losses affects our subsequent trading--and sometimes contributes to winning and losing streaks.

I just finished an enjoyable interview with Mark Wolfinger of the Options for Rookies site. One topic that came up was the way in which traders identify with their P/L. Once a trader’s sense of identity and esteem becomes caught up in profits and losses, the trader begins an emotional roller coaster simply due to the natural ups and downs of markets.

Continue here.>>

See also: Addictive Trading: When Trading Becomes a Problem


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Educational Videos

The following is a collection of podcasts and videos from the Options Clearing Corporation and selected others.

The cover a lot of ground and new ones are occasionally added to their site.  They are not as good as the coursework from MarketTamer, who are Option Sage’s excellent group but these are free (as opposed to $99 a month with Sage’s PSW special) so take a peek at the subjects that interest you:

First up is a very good introduction to options basics from Adam Lass, a very good overview.  His next episode is the basics of call options – hopefully he’ll do more.  Then we have the podcasts from OCC: 

 

 
  Introduction to Financial Markets and Options Basics  View
 
 
  An Exploration of Basic Options Terminology  View
 
 
  Options Basics  View
 
 
 


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The Eight Beliefs of Successful Traders

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The Eight Beliefs of Successful Traders

Courtesy of Dr Janice Dorn at Minyanville

Editor’s Note: For those interested in both winners and losers, the 8 beliefs of unsuccessful traders can be found here.

One bright day in the middle of night, 2 dead boys rose to fight. Back to back they faced each other, drew their swords and shot one another. A deaf policeman heard the noise, and saved the lives of the 2 dead boys. If you don’t believe this lie is true, ask the blind man, he saw it too.

-Author Unknown

We’re hard-wired to believe — and to hold on to our convictions — often in the face of contradictory evidence. In life outside the markets, this may actually be a source of strength. However, it doesn’t usually serve a trader well. One of the most important questions for the trader to ask every day is: What do I believe that’s not true? 

So how do we know the truth? The markets tell us. It really is that simple — and yet, it’s so difficult for most to accept and practice on a daily basis.

It’s important for traders to be able to assess their beliefs regularly, because — at any given market moment — they’re a composite of those principles. Fortunately (for some) and frustratingly (for others), beliefs about the markets are fungible and fluid; they can change from minute to minute.

The successful trader is in the flexible flow with this — and changes accordingly.

Beliefs of Successful Traders

1. The markets provide a constant stream of opportunities.

2. If I miss an opportunity, another will come along.

3. If my position is stopped out, the hypothesis that got me into the trade was incorrect.

4. I take one trade at a time, and stay in the moment with it.

5. I strive for excellence, not perfection.

6. I maximize profits by losing small.

7. I am not my trade.

8. I take complete responsibility for my thoughts, feelings, and actions in the markets.
 

 


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The Eight Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

The Eight Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

Courtesy of Dr Janice Dorn at Minyanville

Editor’s Note: For those interested in both winners and losers, the 8 beliefs of successful traders can be found here.

Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

1. I must be trading something all the time.

2. If I lose on a trade, I feel angry, frustrated, sad, or sick. If I win on a trade, I’m a happy camper.

3. If I don’t get on board with the hot tip of the day, I’ll miss out.

4. The markets are out to get me.

5. I’m unwilling to take the stop-out, so I’m turning this trade into an investment.

6. If I just keep studying, looking, and reading, I’ll find the magical formula/indicator/guru to lead me to riches.

Buddha, trading philosophy7. Everything has to be perfect for me to get into a trade

8. If I win, I was skillful. If I lose, I was unlucky.

It’s only through daily assessment of convictions — and with radical honesty -- that a trader grows, develops, and thrives. Diligent examination of beliefs and the courage to change them is an ongoing challenge that must be conquered if the trader is to move to higher levels of success.

Buddha says:

"Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it’s said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it’s said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it."

 


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Zero Hedge

Tesla Is Tumbling In The Pre-Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The battle between Elon Musk and Jim Chanos continues in the pre-market as non-GAAP exuberance is trumped by epic cash burns and reality-checks from hedge fund managers. The after-hours panic-buying algos appear to have enabled more than a few to exit in a hurry...

Even with near record short-interest...

...



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Chart School

New Jobless Claims: Up 17K, Worse than Forecast

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 274,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 258,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 256,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 61 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973. [See full report]

Today's seasonally adjusted 274K new claims was up 17K from last week's 257K and above the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Atlas Crumbles Under Weight of Italian Banks

Courtesy of Mish.

On April 12, in one of the easiest financial predictions in history, I challenged the notion that a €5 billion slush fund dubbed “Atlas” could possibly prop up €360 Billion of non-performing loans in Italian banks.

Less than a month later, “Atlas” is already a notable failure.

I seek no credit for my call, and none is due. Failure was a certainty from the start.

Instead, I question the sanity of anyone who thought such a preposterous scheme could work in the first place.

Please consider Atlas Strains to Hold up the Sky Over Italy’s Banking Sector.

A government-orchestrated, privately backed €4.25...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Turns Lower After Bigger-Than-Forecast U.S. Crude Build (Fox Business)

A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories to fresh record highs pushed oil markets down after an early rally on Wednesday over concerns about production cuts in Canada's oil sands region due to a wildfire.

Trade Deficit Shrinks as Goods Imports Hit Five-Year Low (Fox Business)

The U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected in March as imports of goods tumbled to their lowest level since 2010, a potential boost to first-quarter ec...



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ValueWalk

Pension Funds - Taking the Long View: The Dangers of Short-Termism

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pension Funds – Taking the Long View: The Dangers of Short-Termism

Moderator
Scott Minerd, Managing Partner, Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Guggenheim Partners

Speakers
Christopher Ailman, Chief Investment Officer, California State Teachers? Retirement System; Co-Chair, Global Capital Markets Advisory Council, Milken Institute
Scott Evans, Deputy Comptroller, Asset Management, and Chief Investment Officer, New York City Retirement Systems
Vicki Fuller, Chief Investment Officer, New York State Common Retirement Fund
Hiromichi Mizuno, Executive Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer, Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan

Intensifying global competition, flagging corporate earnings and emboldened activist investors ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds- Potential breakdown at triple resistance zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Many like to watch the price action of Junk Bonds, because they can send important messages about the strength or lack of in the stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As you can see, JNK looks to have created a double top in 2013 and 2014 and weakness in the sector soon followed. Once weakness really started to take place in this sector (2015), stocks didn’t have much luck moving higher.

JNK created a bullish reversal pattern (bullish wick pattern) the week of 2/5 and started turning high...



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Digital Currencies

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On 'Satoshi Nakamoto'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’

By Mark O'Byrnewww.GoldCore.com 

Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, self-declared cyber security expert and entrepreneur, has claimed to be the creator of Bitcoin, the elusive &l...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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