Posts Tagged ‘Trading psychology’

Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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How to Get Off the Performance Roller Coaster

How to Get Off the Performance Roller Coaster

Munich Oktoberfest Preparations

By Brett Steenbarger 

Do you find yourself on a performance roller coaster? This is a situation in which you make money for a while, begin to think you have it all figured out, only to fall back, lose money, and feel like a rookie all over again. 

A while back, I wrote about the performance roller coaster and some of the emotional factors that sustain it. The gist of that important post was that how we process wins and losses affects our subsequent trading--and sometimes contributes to winning and losing streaks.

I just finished an enjoyable interview with Mark Wolfinger of the Options for Rookies site. One topic that came up was the way in which traders identify with their P/L. Once a trader’s sense of identity and esteem becomes caught up in profits and losses, the trader begins an emotional roller coaster simply due to the natural ups and downs of markets.

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See also: Addictive Trading: When Trading Becomes a Problem


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Educational Videos

The following is a collection of podcasts and videos from the Options Clearing Corporation and selected others.

The cover a lot of ground and new ones are occasionally added to their site.  They are not as good as the coursework from MarketTamer, who are Option Sage’s excellent group but these are free (as opposed to $99 a month with Sage’s PSW special) so take a peek at the subjects that interest you:

First up is a very good introduction to options basics from Adam Lass, a very good overview.  His next episode is the basics of call options – hopefully he’ll do more.  Then we have the podcasts from OCC: 

 

 
  Introduction to Financial Markets and Options Basics  View
 
 
  An Exploration of Basic Options Terminology  View
 
 
  Options Basics  View
 
 
 


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The Eight Beliefs of Successful Traders

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The Eight Beliefs of Successful Traders

Courtesy of Dr Janice Dorn at Minyanville

Editor’s Note: For those interested in both winners and losers, the 8 beliefs of unsuccessful traders can be found here.

One bright day in the middle of night, 2 dead boys rose to fight. Back to back they faced each other, drew their swords and shot one another. A deaf policeman heard the noise, and saved the lives of the 2 dead boys. If you don’t believe this lie is true, ask the blind man, he saw it too.

-Author Unknown

We’re hard-wired to believe — and to hold on to our convictions — often in the face of contradictory evidence. In life outside the markets, this may actually be a source of strength. However, it doesn’t usually serve a trader well. One of the most important questions for the trader to ask every day is: What do I believe that’s not true? 

So how do we know the truth? The markets tell us. It really is that simple — and yet, it’s so difficult for most to accept and practice on a daily basis.

It’s important for traders to be able to assess their beliefs regularly, because — at any given market moment — they’re a composite of those principles. Fortunately (for some) and frustratingly (for others), beliefs about the markets are fungible and fluid; they can change from minute to minute.

The successful trader is in the flexible flow with this — and changes accordingly.

Beliefs of Successful Traders

1. The markets provide a constant stream of opportunities.

2. If I miss an opportunity, another will come along.

3. If my position is stopped out, the hypothesis that got me into the trade was incorrect.

4. I take one trade at a time, and stay in the moment with it.

5. I strive for excellence, not perfection.

6. I maximize profits by losing small.

7. I am not my trade.

8. I take complete responsibility for my thoughts, feelings, and actions in the markets.
 

 


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The Eight Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

The Eight Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

Courtesy of Dr Janice Dorn at Minyanville

Editor’s Note: For those interested in both winners and losers, the 8 beliefs of successful traders can be found here.

Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

1. I must be trading something all the time.

2. If I lose on a trade, I feel angry, frustrated, sad, or sick. If I win on a trade, I’m a happy camper.

3. If I don’t get on board with the hot tip of the day, I’ll miss out.

4. The markets are out to get me.

5. I’m unwilling to take the stop-out, so I’m turning this trade into an investment.

6. If I just keep studying, looking, and reading, I’ll find the magical formula/indicator/guru to lead me to riches.

Buddha, trading philosophy7. Everything has to be perfect for me to get into a trade

8. If I win, I was skillful. If I lose, I was unlucky.

It’s only through daily assessment of convictions — and with radical honesty -- that a trader grows, develops, and thrives. Diligent examination of beliefs and the courage to change them is an ongoing challenge that must be conquered if the trader is to move to higher levels of success.

Buddha says:

"Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it’s said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it’s said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it."

 


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Zero Hedge

Why The 'Sultan Of Chaos' Is Freaking Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted Op-Ed at RT.com,

Picture sleepless nights at ‘Sultan’ Erdogan’s palace in Ankara. Imagine him livid when he learns the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed by Russian air power, started a preemptive Battle of Aleppo – through the Bayirbucak region - cutting off Ankara’s top weaponizing corridor and Jihadi highway.   Residents inspect damage after airstrikes by pro-Syrian government forces in Anadan city, about 10 kilometers away from the towns o...

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Chart School

Bears Break Deadlock

Courtesy of Declan.

A quick post before the Superbowl begins. Friday's action was very disappointing if you were in the bullish camp; poor jobs data contributing to the malaise. However, investors can view this as another buying opportunity, with the Nasdaq clocking the 10% percentile of historic weak prices dating back to 1971, and the Russell 2000 making fast work of a push back to 958. Again, it's not about investing everything at once, but perhaps using the coming year(?) to build long term positions. I would be happier to see a 40-60% trim from highs - keep an eye on my bottom watch table, but this is the kind of action which helps reset the bulls count.

The S&P registered a clear break of rising trend. Volume was lighter, so it wasn't necessarily a panic sell. And while it could be viewed as a breakown, the glass half full crew would see this as a drop back...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

What The Charts Say: "Now Is The Time To Worry"

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice

RALLY FAILS, ALERTS RISE

Last week, I discussed the boost the market received as the BOJ made an unexpected move into negative interest rate territory combined with end of the month buying by portfolio managers. I wrote:

“However, the announcement by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement negative interest rates in a desperate last attempt to boost economic growth in Japan was only the catalyst that ignited the bulls. The “fuel” for the buying came from the end of the month portfolio buying by fund managers.”

But more importantly, was the push higher by stocks that I have been discussing with you over the last couple of weeks. ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street has finally learned an important lesson about Tesla (Business Insider)

The past month has been horrific for Tesla's shareholders.

After hitting $240 on the last day of 2015, shares have lost one-third of their value. Something close to $10 billion in market cap has been erased.

The World's Biggest Wealth Fund Is Unhappy With Volkswagen's Leadership (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund criticized...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P could reach 1,600 if this gives way, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

S&P 500 tops in 2000 and 2007 took place 91 one months apart. Did another top take place 91 months after the 2007 top. So far it looks very possible.

If you double that time frame, you get 182 months. What is the odds that the NDX 100 topped 182 months after the 2000 high, at the SAME price it hit in 2000?

We applied monthly momentum to the charts above, reflecting that momentum for the S&P is back at 2000 and 2007 highs and turning lower and the momentum for the NDX is back at 2000 levels.

...

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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Insider Scoop

Tyson Foods' Stock Ticks Higher Following Q1 Print

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TSN 7 Stocks You Should Be Watching Today Earnings Scheduled For February 5, 2016 Tyson Foods beats by $0.26, misses on revenue (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) were trading higher by more nearly 4 percent early Friday morning after the company reported its ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 1st, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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