Goldman Traders Made $100 Million In A Day 68 Times Last Year
by ilene - March 1st, 2011 4:59 pm
Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider, Chart of the Day
The Goldman 10-K is out!
Here’s a look at how it did trading wise. It had 68 days of making more than $100 million from trading.
It only lost money on 25 days for the year.
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DiggTHE STOCK TRADER’S RIGHT TRIANGLE MIND-SET
by ilene - December 15th, 2010 3:17 am
Courtesy of David at Crosshairs Trader
Successful traders are successful because they have developed the skills necessary to maintain self-control when in the heat of battle. Self-control requires confidence in the face of uncertainty (such as we find in the stock market). In turn, an uncertain environment is best managed with focus, patience, and discipline. Without the proper skills developed via confidence, we experience any number of self-defeating negative behaviors such as fear, desperation, confusion, anxiety, and frustration, among many others, none of which contribute to the proper mind-set… or the bottom line.
Take a look at the following right triangle. As confidence increases, negative behavior decreases, presenting opportunities.
Confidence grows when fed a diet of focus, patience, and discipline. As confidence grows negative behaviors such as fear, desperation, confusion, anxiety, and frustration begin to diminish in opposite proportion. This creates a mind-set that is open to any market opportunity that presents itself. When negative behaviors dictate action, then we are not able to think and see as clearly as would otherwise be possible. Market opportunities are then hidden behind the negative behaviors.
The right triangle mind-set, one of confidence, is built by developing the following skills:
FOCUS: Have you ever stopped to consider how many different trading strategies there are? How about time frames for each strategy? And what about the best instrument to trade that strategy within the time frame selected? What about the indicators? Which ones are we planning to apply to the strategy? If we were to add it all up there are literally hundreds, if not thousands of strategies, just in one time frame! And what about the other traders trading one of these strategies that may be designed specifically to trade the opposite of what you trade? There is absolutely no way humanly possible to master all, or even a large number of, the strategies available to us. Therefore, we must focus on a particular strategy and become a strategic specialist. In doing so, we defeat the ego’s need to know everything, which we know is impossible in the first place. With focus, we can think clearly about our specialized strategy knowing when and where to enter and exit the market since we know exactly what the market is supposed to look like to do either one. This focus helps eliminate the confusion and frustration we experience when the market does not make sense (which is…
Simple Tools for Competent Trades
by Chart School - December 2nd, 2010 11:57 am
Improve your Financial Decision-Making Skills with Guidance from EWI Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Courtesy of Elliott Wave International.
Simple Tools for Competent Trades
As a high school freshman, I had a friend over to do math homework after school. It was cold in the room, so I stood on my chair and jumped up and down to try and bat open a closed heating vent.
My dad walked in and commented on the geometry problem we were working on, as I continued to struggle, unsuccessfully, to open the vent. Then, he handed me a ruler from the table and said:
"Simple tools are what separate us from the animals."
Without another word, he left us to finish our homework. Sadly, I don’t remember any of the geometric formulas that I was trying to master on that winter’s day. But you can bet that I have never failed to reach for a simple, practical tool since.
Here at Elliott Wave International, our technical analysts provide you with simple, practical tools that can help your analysis and trading. EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has spent years using and mastering — among many other technical trading tools — several well-known moving average techniques. In the process, he has even developed his own personal moving average method that he calls the "Stoplight System."
For a limited time, the first two chapters of "How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages" are available FREE when you join (free) Club EWI.
In these excerpts, Jeffrey explains:
- Defining the Moving Average and Its Components
- The Dual Moving Average Cross-Over System
- Moving Average Price Channel System
- Combining the Crossover and Price Channel Techniques
- The Most Popular Moving Averages
Jeffrey’s insights are meant to help you become more successful and highly evolved in your endeavors. Here is one of the charts showing how moving averages are similar to the Wave Principle in signaling buying opportunities:
This chart of Corning shows how each time the market moves into the price channel (marked by the short vertical lines), it signals a buying opportunity. When Corning’s price breaks through the price channel (indicated by the short diagonal line), the trend has turned to the downside. So, we have a clear uptrend followed by a clear downtrend.
Remember, "Simple tools are what separate us from the animals."
We have extended our special offer — for a limited time, the first two chapters…
The POMO Submitted-To-Accepted Ratio: A Tell On How To Frontrun The Frontrunning Primary Dealers
by ilene - October 27th, 2010 7:36 pm
The POMO Submitted-To-Accepted Ratio: A Tell On How To Frontrun The Frontrunning Primary Dealers
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
To those who look to Fed POMO days as a guaranteed panacea to underperformance and an even more guaranteed green close, you are right (at least, so far). But that is only half the story. It turns out that combing through POMO data yields a very surprising set of outcomes, namely, that the ultimate return on any given POMO day is almost exclusively a function of the Submitted-to-Accepted ratio. As John Lohman highlights, "the generic market effect on POMO days (i.e. stocks and yields up relative to non-POMO days) should be pronounced when the submitted-to-accepted ratio is relatively low (“meets expectations”) and muted when the ratio is high (“a negative surprise”, particularly if said Dealers had already positioned themselves in pre-POMO trading, based on a set of expectations regarding the outcome)." Indeed, the empirical result is precisely that. Which is why in addition to keeping track of POMO days, a far more critical piece of information is tracking the S/A ratio disclosed every day at 11am. If low, and if market performance is below a specific bucket’s average, it may be a green light for a stratospheric ramp into market close, and a signal to frontrun the market alongside the Primary Dealers.
Without further ado, here is the statistical data compiled and associated narrative by John Lohman that predicts not only market performance, but Primary Dealer frontrunning via Fed monetization generosity.
POMO Submitted to Accepted ratio
In a prior Zero Hedge post (here), it was clearly demonstrated (to all save a few unnamed asshats who believe in coincidences against all statistical probability) that equities and interest rates tend to rally on POMO days relative to non-POMO days. Here, using the Fed’s Total Par ‘Accepted’ and ‘Submitted’ data, we can show that, not only is this effect not a coincidence, but that the magnitude of the market’s reaction to POMO on any given day is positively correlated with the outcome of that day’s operation.
The POMO ‘Submitted-to-Accepted’ ratio can be thought of as being similar to a reverse bid-to-cover ratio in Treasury auctions. Primary Dealers submit a certain volume of paper and the Fed accepts a portion of it. If POMO is indeed having a direct impact on the markets, there should be a relationship between the submitted-to-accepted ratio and…
70% Of All Stock Market Trades Are Held for An Average of 11 SECONDS
by ilene - October 22nd, 2010 7:27 pm
70% Of All Stock Market Trades Are Held for An Average of 11 SECONDS
Courtesy of Washington’s Blog
The Fourteenth Banker writes today:
In the stock market, program trading dominates volume. I heard recently that 70% of trade positions are held for an average of 11 seconds.
He’s correct.
As the New York Times dealbook noted in May:
These are short-term bets. Very short. The founder of Tradebot, in Kansas City, Mo., told students in 2008 that his firm typically held stocks for 11 seconds. Tradebot, one of the biggest high-frequency traders around, had not had a losing day in four years, he said
Similarly, FT’s Martin Wheatley pointed out last month:
I know of one HFT firm operated out of the west coast of the US that boasts its average holding period for US equities is 11 seconds
And market analyst Peter Cohan writes at AOL’s Daily Finance:
70% of trading volume on the major exchanges is conducted by high-frequency traders who hold a stock for an average of 11 seconds.
The fact that the vast majority of stock market trades are held for 11 seconds shows that the stock market is not a real market with real traders governed by the law of supply and demand, and with no real price discovery.
But as Tyler Durden points out, alot can happen in 11 seconds when the players are high-powered computers:
07-29-10 BATS "Flag Repeater". 15,000 quotes in 11 seconds, dropping the ASK price 1 penny each quote from $9.36 to $8.58 and back up again.
EXECUTING A PLANNED METHODOLOGY
by ilene - October 16th, 2010 2:18 am
EXECUTING A PLANNED METHODOLOGY
Courtesy of David, THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER
My friend and fellow trader Derek Hernquist over at Integrative Capital invited me to attend a meeting last night. The speaker was Chuck Dukas of TRENDadvisor. I won’t discuss here is methodology but instead his understanding of what makes a trader successful, no matter the methodology. With over 25 years of experience trading and working with the most successful traders on the Street I believe what he has to say is right on target. In fact, I would say his wisdom is IN THE CROSSHAIRS. Mr Dukas shared three simple, basic elements for long term trading success and here they are:
1. Develop a solid METHODOLOGY: instead of trading one pattern one day and another the next or trading off pure emotion or what the next guru preaches simply find ONE methodology that has been proven to work over time and stick with it. It is boringly simple and is not for the Las Vegas inclined. According to Dukas it is vitally important that a trader understand the importance of “trading what you see, not what you feel or think.” In other words, a simple, well-thought out trading methodology will trump emotional feelings every time. If the market is bullish then trade accordingly, in spite of feeling or thinking that the market should be bearish. Without a methodology there is nothing but distorted psychology and arrogant hubris. Unless you have enough money to trade your feelings then you best trade a methodology.
2. Have a PLAN on how to trade the METHODOLOGY: it is one thing to have a methodology and quite another to have a planned methodology. Think of it this way: a football team puts together a set of plays, a “methodology” that it will use to take advantage of its opponent’s weaknesses and ultimately win the game. This team will run a particular play within this methodology depending on the circumstances. If it is third down and 20 yards to go, the plan will call for a long pass against a weak defender: not a quarterback sneak up the middle. The same with a trading PLAN. Your pattern, your edge, may…
Bullish….Bearish… or Neither
by Chart School - September 24th, 2010 4:50 pm
Bullish….Bearish… or Neither
Courtesy of Chris Kimble
Am I Bullish, Bearish or Neither?
Choice “C”…Niether!
I am of the opinion, being Bullish or Bearish are emotional states of mind. They are NOT STRATEGIES. I believe that we should invest in each asset on its own individual merits/patterns, not based upon some global macro prediction.
Did I suggest to buy the 500 index (see post) and become “BULLISH” on 8/29 because the economy was fine? NO! Bought the 500 Index due to these conditions…Bottom of channel support and a falling wedge and by the way, the fewest investors bullish since the March 2009 low. NOTHING MORE!
Did I harvest the S&P 500 position and become “BEARISH” yesterday (see post) , after an 8% gain in three weeks, because something is bad about the economy? NO! Harvested due to Fibonacci resistance at the top of a trading range. NOTHING MORE!
Did I buy Silver a month ago (see post) because something is wrong with the dollar or that inflation is going to go wild or….NOPE! I bought Silver on an upside breakout from a favorable pattern, an ascending triangle . NOTHING MORE!
Why own Emerging Markets or Brazil right now? Falling channel breakouts! (See Post) NOTHING MORE!
Why own High Yield mutual funds? A breakout of a flag pattern and above moving averages (see post) . NOTHING MORE!
Why BUY HOME BUILDERS XHB (see post) when so many people are BEARISH on this industry? Because of rising channel support plus a sizeable falling wedge after a 30% decline. NOTHING MORE! (Current gain of over 12%!)
Will we buy the 500 index and other global markets (see post) on an upside break of these long-term falling channels? YES!!!
My goal is to try to provide solutions, that will help investors “inflate portfolios, regardless of market direction by way of the Power of the Pattern!” I will leave the Bullish or Bearish elements of this business to people much smarter than myself.
Chris
THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK
by ilene - September 15th, 2010 7:54 pm
THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
1) What have you done for me lately?
Should we blame the political system for the downfall of Wall Street? Wall Street has increasingly become a place of “what have you done for me lately”. The advent of the day trader and the hedge fund simply represent this incredible shift towards short-term thinking. Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street has evolved into “Mad Money” and “Fast Money”. But where does this change in psychology come from? Is it the politicians who are running for re-election seemingly every day? Is it simply the information age and a case of wanting everything sooner rather than later? I don’t know. But politically, this is a disastrous change. How can we get back on track towards a sustainable recovery when every policy measure we implement appears to be an attempt to fix some short-term problem that just happens to coincide with an election? I can handle the advent of the short-term trader (in fact I prefer it), but no one in Congress thinks of the long-term anymore and that’s a scary fact.
2) The one thing that jumps out at me
“What’s the one thing that most jumps out at you over the last few years?” That’s what someone asked me a few days ago. The one thing that has really jumped out at me in recent years is the overnight futures markets. I like to trade illiquid markets. It’s why I stay up late and why I get up early. An illiquid
In recent years those spreads have closed (at least it feels like they have – perhaps it’s just more volatile and a bit more liquid). It is similar to the way it was back…
What the Market Wants: Renewed Volume and Strong Start to the Week
by Sabrient - September 13th, 2010 8:32 pm
Courtesy of David Brown, Chief Market Strategist
Phil's Favorites
Violent Protests in Greece; 6 Cabinet Members Resign
February 11th, 2012 3:28 am
Violent Protests in Greece; 6 Cabinet Members Resign; LAOS leader "I Would Rather Starve Than be Under German Jackboot"; Controversy Over Missing ParagraphsCourtesy of Mish
Imagine you are asked to sign a document but three pages were missing. Further imagine the documents you were asked to sign were written in English but you only speak Greek. Would you sign?
That is exactly the predicament Greek officials were placed in by the Troika. Here is the story sent to me by Demetri Kofinas at Capital Account.
George Karatzaferis leader of LOAS political party gave a speech today addressing why he refused to sign this latest agreement. In his speech, he said that he a...
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Sabrient
Sabrient Risers - 2/11/2012
February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....more from Sabrient
Zero Hedge
Ten Minutes With Italy's Mario Monti
February 10th, 2012 10:43 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by CrownThomas.
Italy's Prime Minister (and self appointed economy minister) shot over to CNBC after his meeting with President Obama this afternoon to discuss how well everything looks for Italy since he was elected took over.
Notable Comments:
- Italian banks are "vulnerable" but have recapitalized themselves (rather, the ECB has given them money)
- He had a good meeting with Obama, and Obama is supportive (he's careful to...
more from Tyler
Chart School
Getting Technical: Weekend Update
February 10th, 2012 7:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Here's the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the U.S. market in a series of weekly charts. Here is his update on the S&P 500.
This week, the S&P 500 could not break so much resistance and now paused its ascension, on average volume and on falling momentum.
Notice also how the "Volume EMA10" has continued its downtrend.
...
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Insider Scoop
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday February 10, 2012
February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider
Market Montage
And Still Not a Single 1% Down Day in 2012
February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark HannaCourtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
more from Mark
ETF Selector
ETFs Skid On Greece (VGK, EWG, FXE, DIA, SPY)
February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fearsAfter wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
more from John
All About Trends
Mid-Day Update
February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...
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Option Review
True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings
February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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OpTrader
Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012
February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
...more from OpTrader
Stock World Weekly
Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics
February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...more from SWW
IRA Strategy/Income Trader
Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012
January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...more from Strategies
Pharmboy
Biotech Investing for 2012
January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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