Options and My Patience Expire Today
by Phil - March 19th, 2010 8:33 am
Well now we’re officially cashed out!
As I always do before options expiration I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we’ve been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week - I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with this week. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28% - since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year - it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.
You are not supposed to have 64 out of 66 winners in 6 weeks, you are not supposed to make 3/4 of what you anticipate for the year in 6 weeks - that is NOT how the markets are supposed to work! When the markets go against you in some ridiculous "black swan" fashion, it is easy to throw up your hands and walks away but when the markets go in your favor in some ridiculous, "white swan" fashion - maybe it’s also a good idea to use those same hands to stuff your pockets with cash and walk away.
There’s nothing wrong with cash - the Fed tells us there will be no inflation in the foreseeable future and, in fact, they are fighting deflation so our sideline dollars will gain more and more buying power while we wait. Actually, despite my best efforts, there are still 15 positions that weren’t worth getting rid of (too much reward, not enough risk), even in a worrying market. Generally they are positions we expect to get at least another 20% from by January - still a pretty good return in this low-VIX market.
Our plan is to take opportunistic trades between now and April earnings - we’re still expecting a pullback and I’d be very motivated to go back into our old friends if they go back on sale but most of those picks were made for a defensive market posture that won’t be necessary if we break over our levels from here and they certainly weren’t worth riding back down after hitting 75% of our goal in 25% of the year!
We have Health Care Reform passing this weekend and there should be some great opportunities to pick up stocks people…
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THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK
by ilene - March 18th, 2010 2:15 am
THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
- The complacency in the market is now reaching a fever pitch. It always amazes me that investors can be so bearish near the bottom and then be so incredibly bullish after the
market has risen so substantially. On January 28th I said the market was not forming a major market top and that the downside was “more likely a correction within the uptrend”. At S&P 1,140 I went net short for just the second time in the last 12 months. With our H1 outlook largely playing out as expected I now find myself wondering if we are in a euphoric blow-off top and on the wrong side of the trade….
- Mad Money started 5 years ago on CNBC. I vividly remember seeing the show when it started because it began right around the same time when the great Louis Rukeyser got sick. My first thought was: “there is something seriously wrong with the market if its participants are willing to listen to a man banging on buttons and acting like a lunatic.” The power of Cramer over the years is undiminished and leaves me wondering exactly the same thing today. Cramer is a good investor and a GREAT salesman, but you just have to wonder after 5 years – the market is flat over the same period – have any of his viewers actually come out on top after taxes and fees? My guess is very few….Investing is not a joke. It is not entertainment. I am not sure why anyone thinks it is okay to make it seem that way.
- While I continue to think the VIX is a sign of near-term complacency you just can’t help but wonder if investors are still too fearful in the long-term. The majority of investors still don’t have an ounce of faith in the recovery and this is reflected in the historically high VIX. In the past two recessions, the VIX did not reach its historical low of 10 until at least 3 years into the recovery. Perhaps most important, the market rallied this entire time.
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Wrong Way Weekly Wrap-Up
by Phil - March 6th, 2010 8:34 am
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This whole week did not feel right to me.
We were too bearish as I had expected a bogus commodity rally in last weekend’s wrap-up but I didn’t expect it to persist for a week, even as the dollar held it’s ground above 80, a 10% pullback off the top, when oil was $40, copper was $1.50 and gold was $850. Now oil is $80 (up 100%), copper is $3.35 (up 123%) and gold is $1,135 (up 33%). Let’s say gold is a true indicator of dollar weakness - that means that only 33% of oil and copper’s move up can be attributed to the 10% drop in the dollar (not that even that makes sense but we’ll give it to them). Can the rest be attributed to demand?
Certainly not with copper. Global copper consumption was down 1.9% in 2009 and Q1 2010 is lower than any quarter since Q1 2009 and even Barclays’ very aggressive targets for China growth only bring global demand up 2.5% this year - whch would just about bring us back to 2007 levels of consumption. That, of course, also assumes a rebound in housing construction - something we are not seeing at the moment. Also, China spent $700Bn last year stimulating their economy and one of the ways they did this was to stockpile copper. As you can see from the chart - that too appears to be winding down and even Goldman Sachs has abandoned the bullish side of copper at this point.
Oil is just as silly. According to the EIA, global oil consumption is not expected to return to 2007 levels until late 2011 - and that is with some very rosey estimates of a global econonomic recovery - exactly the type of thing that can be derailed by high oil prices! Mighty China’s consumption is projected to go from 8.66Mbd this year to 9.13Mbd in 2011, a 500,000 barrel increase. Last week, the US had a build in inventories of 4Mb - we just send those over to China and everyone is happy! I’ve already had my say on oil demand this this weekend, so let’s just move on…
Let’s just say I’m a little skeptical about any market moves that are lead by commodity pushers at this very early stage in a recovery. Prices are not going up based on demand but on expectations of demand in the future and that’s a very dangerous game to play…
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New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold
by Chart School - March 6th, 2010 8:00 am
New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold
Courtesy of Chopshop at Fibozachi
As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes. Beginning with Oil, Gold, Corn and Soybeans, these new derivative instruments are scheduled for launch in Q3 of 2010. Each benchmark index will be established upon the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and price series will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts via the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts.
[1] CME press release
[2] Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts
[3] CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is
CHICAGO, March 5 — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes. These contracts will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of the particular exchange where the products will be traded (CME, CBOT or NYMEX).
"Our liquid and transparent commodity and financial markets are the foundation for the creation of new indexes that customers can use to gain a view on volatility across a wide array of asset classes," said Scot Warren, CME Group Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services. "We believe that a reliable benchmark index for volatility sentiment on contracts such as WTI Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans and Gold will help market participants make more effective investment and hedging decisions based on their exposure to market volatility."
Terms of the license agreement between the exchanges include the following:
- CBOE will create, own and calculate the benchmark indexes using its established CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and license use of the indexes to CME Group.
- The benchmark indexes are scheduled to begin publishing data during the third quarter of 2010.
- Prices used in the calculations will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts. The data will use the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts across commodity and financial products.
- CBOE will be the initial market disseminator of prices for the volatility indexes. {1}
Crude Oil Volatility Index…
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VIX-Investor Enacts Ratio Call Spread on Fear-Gauge
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 3rd, 2010 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: VIX, JPM, PEP, MDVN, TEX, EWZ, COST, RSH, AMAG & TIVO
VIX - CBOE Volatility index – The fear-gauge spent the better portion of the session in the red, but edged higher in late-afternoon trading to stand up 1.20% to 19.29. Options players busily populated the VIX with a number of interesting trades during the session. One transaction in particular, however, focused our attention on activity in the May contract. A hefty ratio call spread involving a total of 30,000 call options at deeply out-of-the-money strike prices was established on the VIX today. The investor purchased 10,000 calls at the May 27.5 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece, and sold 20,000 calls at the higher May 35 strike for $0.70 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to just $0.10 per contract. It is possible the investor was motivated to put on the spread because of the low cost of the trade and because of the allure of potential profits going forward. The trader appears to believe the VIX will likely breach the breakeven point on the spread at 27.60 in the next three months to expiration, but doubts the fear-gauge will explode up to the mid-30’s. Evidence to support such a scenario is abundant. First, the investor can almost taste victory because the VIX traded as high as 29.22 on February 5, 2010, which is well above the point at which he garners profits. Second, losses above and beyond the premium paid to initiate the trade seem unlikely because the Index failed to rise above 30 since early November of last year. The resistance of the volatility index at the 30-level persisted despite the drop in global markets after China waved the fear-flag by announcing plans to rein in its country’s economic growth at the end of January. Additionally, angst regarding Europe’s debt crisis and threats to the strength of the Euro were also unable to boost the VIX up above 30. The ratio call spread described above looks to be a relatively cheap way to profit from another bout of market turmoil or jump in investor uncertainty ahead of May expiration. We note that the index must rally at least 43% from its current level before the investor breaks even on the transaction at 27.60.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – The banking institution’s shares surrendered intraday gains of about 1% over yesterday’s close and are…
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CHART OF THE DAY: A SURE BET
by Chart School - March 2nd, 2010 6:39 pm
CHART OF THE DAY: A SURE BET
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
There is, arguably, no more important gauge of investor sentiment than the VIX. Market extremes are generally best seen by the extraordinary swings in the VIX. As we’ve recently described, the market has been on a drunken walk that takes it in one direction for a series of weeks and then suddenly reverses with the utmost conviction. This back and forth has been a hallmark trait of the range-bound market of the last few months.
With today’s invincible feeling in the equity markets the VIX has now fallen a remarkable 14 of the last 15 days. That’s a 93% win rate in a three week period. Not bad if you’ve been trading or hedging via the VIX. Unfortunately, this trend is more than unsustainable. This is the longest losing streak for the VIX since the March 2009 rally began and the few losing streaks that came even close were followed by sideways to down markets in the following 4-8 weeks.
The VIX has become a sure bet. As the old saying goes, if something seems too good to be true it probably is. The trend is your friend until it ends and this trend is beginning to look like a mighty bad bet to me. I’m not one to call tops, but as a manager of risk this indicator has me feeling a bit uneasy.
(What's this?)
(THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/2/10)
(Wealth Daily, 1/13/10)
(Investment U, 1/19/10)
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Weekly Wrap-Up, it’s Only a 55-Point Drop You Wimps!
by Phil - February 7th, 2010 12:19 pm
That’s right, I said WIMPS!
I have never heard so much whining and crying and complaining about a market drop as I have the past few weeks. Last week, I pointed out that we had only fallen 105 points from the prior week (10,172 to 10,067) and this week we fell ALL THE WAY to 10,012 to finish the week and you would think the world was ending (again) from the way the MSM has been acting.
By Friday the panic was palpable as we gave up Monday and Tuesday’s bogus gains to test new lows for the year - testing, in fact, the lowest levels the market has hit since last November and I pointed out in Friday’s post that it reminded me of when BSC and LEH went under and everyone panicked and sold Financials off to the point where Warren Buffet was willing to give GS $5Bn AFTER they bounced 50% - THAT’s how undervalued the financials were in November of 2008.
What do we do while people are panicking? We BUY! We don’t BUYBUYBUY like Cramer’s Pavlovian Peons but we sure do BUY and take some nice entry positions with sensible hedges. I was finally motivated to finish updating our Buy List on Friday and 18 of our 38 positions were highlighted (immediately actionable) on Friday. Sure they may go lower, but we’re buying them with 20% buffers built into the positions and then we can double down if they drop 40% (back to Nov 2008 lows) and then we’ll have our entries down 10% from the lowest levels of the past decade or so that we can hold until the next decade - what’s there to panic over?
If I wanted to buy IBM in January but thought it was a little pricey at $134, why would I not be HAPPY to have the opportunity to make an enty at $122, back at where they were pre FABULOUS October earnings? I can buy IBM for $122 and take advantage of the panic-induced VIX at 26 to sell July $125 calls for $6.60 and the July $120 puts for $6.65 for a net entry of $108.75 with a call away at $125 for a $16.25 profit (15%) in 5 months. If IBM should fall below $120, we will have a second round of the stock put to us as $120 for an average entry of $114.38, another 6.2% lower than it is now. If we were more worried, we…
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Peter D - Confessions of the PSW Strangler
by Phil - February 3rd, 2010 4:49 am
Peter D has a long-running and very successful system of selling premiums on a regular basis that’s well worth learning.
Investors selling a short strangle are expecting the underlying stock to not move much in either direction. The strategy is accomplished by selling a call option at a higher price than the current stock or ETF price and by selling a put option at a lower price than the current stock or ETF price. Both of the options will have the same expiration month. The investor in a short strangle benefits from the underlying moving within the spread between the call strike and the put strike.
There are two reasons we like this strategy a lot at PSW:
1) It’s boring! Unless the market is MUCH more volatile than normal, taking sensible, NON-GREEDY, out-of-the-money short option positions is a fairly market-neutral way to place our bets. While the risk/reward ratio may seem inverted, statistically it’s a winning play over time.
2) It’s perfect for our "be the house, not the sucker" philosophy of trading. We are always looking to SELL volatility. The idea behind this trade is that front-month volatility is relatively expensive compared to historical long-term volatility and we take advantage of selling a very high cumulative volatility over the course of the year.
We recently ran a collection of comments following through on some trades over time and quite a while ago Sage wrote an article relating about using short strangles on longer-term stock plays, which provides some additional ideas on how to apply this strategy. Peter has been kind enough to provide us with a definitive guide to help set you on the road to a successful career as a strangler. The following is a collection of posts (make sure you use the links) on Short Strangles and the Crazy plays on the indices (SPX, RUT, NDX, etc.):
1- The Crazy play consists of a Short Strangle and a protective long put vertical. These plays are mainly for Portfolio Margin accounts, with balance greater than $125,000, preferably over $200k as the margin can swing wildly.
2- Very rough comparison among Short Strangle, Iron Condor, Buy/Write and straight stock purchase. Note the rolling tips in the second to last paragraph.
3- VIX, the effects of.
4- Possible adjustments of the Crazy Play.
Additional discussion on doubling down.
5- Figuring out the margin requirement for short strangle using Thinkorswim Analyze Tab.
6- Setting up February 2010 spreads on Jan 4th.
7- Thoughts on Delta movement with respect to the underlying.
8- Selling into a VIX excitement,…
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VIX Draws Large Bearish Put Play
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 2nd, 2010 5:28 pm
Today’s tickers: VIX, MS, BAC, UNG, SU, RL, GIGM, FCX, CVS, SPF & DOW
VIX – CBOE Volatility Index – A massive bearish put position initiated on the VIX today is a bullish sign for the S&P 500 index. The VIX fell more than 6% during the current session to stand at 21.21 as the past two day’s uptick in equities serve to dissipate some of the fear and uncertainty felt by investors during the prior trading week. One investor anticipating further downside movement for the VIX picked up roughly 103,000 puts at the March 20 strike for an average premium of $0.70 per contract. The put options position the investor to accrue profits beneath a VIX reading of 19.30 through expiration. It appears the investor expects the so-called fear-gauge to head in the direction of the index’s 52-week low of approximately 17.49 attained on January 19, 2010. But, the VIX must fall another 9% from the current reading in order for the investor to breakeven by expiration. Furthermore, today’s reading is still 21.25% greater than the 52-week low described previously.
MS – Morgan Stanley – Global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley, attracted the attention of bullish options investors in afternoon trading. Shares are currently trading 1.00% higher at $27.83 with roughly one hour remaining in the trading day. A bull call spread stuck out like a sore thumb in the scantily populated March contract on the stock today. One investor purchased 5,000 calls at the March $28 strike for a premium of $1.35 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher March $31 strike for an average premium of $0.34 apiece. The trader paid a net premium of $1.01 per contract for the spread, but stands to accrue maximum potential profits of $1.99 per contract should Morgan Stanley’s shares rally up to $31.00 ahead of expiration day. The call-spreader breaks even on the transaction as long as MS’s shares rise 4.25% from the current price to $29.01 before the options expire.
BAC – Bank of America Corp. – Optimistic sentiment on Bank of America appeared in the August contract today amidst a 0.65% improvement in shares of the underlying stock to $15.52. One bullish trader initiated a call spread to position for upward movement in BAC’s shares by expiration. The investor purchased 4,000 calls at the August $16 strike for an average premium of $1.52 apiece, spread against the sale of 4,000…
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A REALITY CHECK
by ilene - January 28th, 2010 11:12 am
Said with authority…
A REALITY CHECK
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Psychology in this market remains incredibly fragile. In his morning missive, David Rosenberg is quick to note the jumpy investor sentiment:
“Boy, it sure doesn’t take much to unnerve the bull crowd. Just in the past week, the Investors
Intelligence (II) poll showed that the share of bulls has plunged, to 40% from 52.2%; and the bear share, while still in a minority, edged up, to 23.2% from 18.9%. But those in the “correction camp” jumped from 28.9% to 36.7% — a 23-year high. But since the correction has already started, what is the real mystery is why that number isn’t closer to 100%.”
This has also been apparent in the VIX, which recently spiked over 50% in less than two trading sessions. Investors remain skittish.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(