Posts Tagged ‘wall st. sector selector’

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Courtesy of John Nyaradi, Wall St. Sector Selector 

Weekly Stock Market and ETF commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was difficult, at best, for global stock markets as the S&P 500 dropped more than -3% and the bond market surged as investors continued their “flight to quality.” Fear spread around the world with global markets shedding recent gains.  It was definitely a “risk off” week and the beginning of what I believe will continue to be a “risk off” period as we move through the closing days of summer.

The macro news was mostly poor, as we’ll discuss in a moment, and the technical picture deteriorated. In our portfolios, we moved to “Red Flag Flying” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and moved from our remaining cash positions to inverse ETFs in the Standard Portfolio, while keeping our option portfolio positioned for more downside ahead. 

Our new “High Conviction Trade Alert triggered its first ‘buy’ signal and I’m looking forward to reporting more details on this to our Pro members in the weekly Position Update. The High Conviction Trade Alert is designed to identify high conviction/low risk opportunities.  It won’t trade very often but should offer excellent risk/reward opportunities. 

Looking at My Screens 

On a technical basis, significant damage was inflicted last week to equity markets around the world.  As we’ve been saying, an imminent decline in U.S. markets seems to be upon us, and it appears that last week’s action could have been the beginning of that move.

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart above you can see that the S&P 500 has dropped below its 200 day moving average and also below its 50 Day Moving Average, indicating that the long and medium term trend is down.  These significant moving averages now become resistance rather than support and we see the next support levels at 1060 and then near 1020 at the June lows. 

The 50 Day Moving Average remains below the 200 Day Moving Average, forming the widely watched “death cross,” which typically accompanies significant trend changes.  Additionally, the 12 month moving average of the S&P 500 was also violated which is another bearish indicator for major markets. 

As if all of this isn’t gloomy enough, last week’s stock market action triggered a “Hindenburg Omen,” named after the German zeppelin that crashed and burned in New York…
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At the Tipping Point (Still)

At the Tipping Point (Still) (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi at Wall St. Sector Selector, July 27, 2010

Instratrader Indicators: 

  • Yellow Flag: We Expect Choppy Prices Ahead 
  • Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Very Optimistic (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Market Condition:  Very Overbought (short term bearish) 
  • Short Term Trend: Up 
  • Medium Term Trend: Neutral 
  • Long Term Trend: Neutral 
  • % of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 59.5%/-1.9% 
  • % of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    75.5%/-1.6% 

Market Update:

Market Closing Price %Change
Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) 10,537 +0.1
S&P 500 (SPY) 1113 -0.1
Gold  $1162 -1.9
Oil  $77.41 -2.0
VIX 23.1 +2.0
Shanghai Comp 2575 -0.5

Commentary:

Today’s (7/27) news was mixed with the Case/Shiller Housing Index registering gains along with positive earnings reports and outlook from DuPont while Consumer Confidence took a tumble and Moody’s downgraded Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on their “supported ratings” which assumes a government bailout of the “too big to fail” category.  Because financial reform passed, government intervention is less likely to happen or be less extensive.

Gold and oil were crushed today, down some 2% each, while the VIX rose 2%.  The S&P 500 slipped to even with its all important 200 Day Moving Average, closing at 1113.84 compared to 1113.93 for the average.

Markets remain overbought and overoptimistic and subject to short term correction.  We remain in the “Yellow Flag Flying” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  A failure to materially break above overhead resistance between 1120-1130 on the S&P 500 will likely lead to lower prices ahead.  One of our indicators points to the growing possibility of a significant downturn ahead, but, of course, no one has a crystal ball and so the timing of that potential event is unknown.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis. 


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Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

Manic Markets Continue: ETF Daily Outlook

red flagCourtesy of John Nyaradi

Click here for a Special Report from Wall Street Sector Selector

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 

Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral 

Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish) 

Short Term Trend: Up 

Medium Term Trend: Down 

Long Term Trend: Down 

% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 51%/ +23% 

% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change:    60% /+51% 

Market Update:

Market closing price  % change 
DIA 10,322 +1.99%
SPY 1093 +2.3%
GLD $1194 +0.8%
Oil $79.10 +3.3%
Vix $24.63 -3.9%
Shanghai Comp 2562 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Commentary

Back to back manic days as the markets continue to struggle with poor macro economic news and mostly positive earnings. 

Today it was “risk on” as Microsoft, Caterpillar and UPS earnings were cheered while Amazon missed, housing reports and unemployment all were negative.  Chairman Bernanke continued his commentary on Capitol Hill but today, unlike yesterday, the markets rallied.  Jobless benefits were extended by Congress.  Tomorrow brings earnings reports from Ford and McDonalds and the long awaited “stress tests” designed to show the health of the European banks. 

For the weekend, we have a tropical storm heading for the BP well in the Gulf of Mexico and apparently the well be unattended and operations will stop.  There are all kinds of varying forecasts about what will happen that range from nothing to a methane rain over the Gulf Coast. 

1100 on the S&P remains formidable resistance as does the 200 Day Moving Average at 1113 just above today’s close.  Point and Figure charts remain on “sell” signals but close to changing.  This is a titanic struggle that will resolve one way or other over the coming days.

We remain in the “red flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: psq, rwm, sh, skf, spy put

Read our weekend newsletter, Wall Street Sector Selector Review, for full market updates and analysis.


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Phil's Favorites

Defeating Nonsense with Evidence

 

Defeating Nonsense with Evidence

Courtesy of 

Most of the market commentary you come across, including a lot of mine, is nonsense – even if it’s well meaning nonsense.

Of course we’re trying to interpret things as they happen – it’s human nature to want to understand what’s going on. The thing is, it’s probably best to use evidence as a starting point, rather than just repeating old wives tales, rules of thumb and opinions you hear in the media that sound better than they actually are.

At least, that’s what we try to do.

I want to make sure you don’t miss either of these ...



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ValueWalk

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Gabelli Research

By Rizwan1. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Gabelli Research Analyst Zamane Bodini (2-20-2018)

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Invest with Us 1-800-GABELLI (800-422-3554)

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GabelliTV

Transcript:

Hi. My name is Zamane Bodini and I’m a consumer products analyst at Gabelli & Company. Today we are reviewing diversified consumer products company Newell Brand, headquartered in Hoboken, NJ.

The company has 491 million ...



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Zero Hedge

US Olympians Are Turning To Bitcoin To Offset Competition-Related Costs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As many college athletes know all too well, funding for more niche sports like - for example - luge is often lacking, and securing more often requires hours of fundraising by the team's boosters.

Which is why, ahead of the Winter Games in PyeongChang, some teams started getting creative. For instance, fundraisers for the US luge team have started accepting donations in bitcoin. Indeed, the team has raised several thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

...



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Digital Currencies

US Olympians Are Turning To Bitcoin To Offset Competition-Related Costs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As many college athletes know all too well, funding for more niche sports like - for example - luge is often lacking, and securing more often requires hours of fundraising by the team's boosters.

Which is why, ahead of the Winter Games in PyeongChang, some teams started getting creative. For instance, fundraisers for the US luge team have started accepting donations in bitcoin. Indeed, the team has raised several thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

...



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Chart School

'Bull Trap' in Dow Jones Industrial Average

Courtesy of Declan.

Starting to see evidence that the February bounce in markets is fading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a 'bull trap' as it ducked below breakout support despite finishing above yesterday's close. Volume dropped as relative performance against tech indices took a marked step lower. Troubling times for the 'flight-to-safety' route.


The Semiconductor Index had looked like it was ready to mount a challenge of the January 'bull trap' but the last couple of days have seen a second attempt at a reversal ...

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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • BMO Capital raised the price target for Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) from $191 to $213. Home Depot shares closed at $183.06 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) price target from $106 to $110. Synopsys shares closed at $88.46 on Wednesday.
  • Imperial Capital increased Qualys Inc (NASDAQ: QLYS) price target from $62 to $83. Qualys shares closed at $72.15 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted the price target for GrubHub Inc (NYSE: ...


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Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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