We briefly failed our first test of 1,920 (see yesterday's notes) but another low-volume rescue kept us from fulfilling the "Wave C" predicion on this Elliot Wave chart – for now.
Not that I'm an Elliot Wave person, of course – my theory is that, if you are going to draw 5 points on a graph you can imagine all sorts of random patterns and SOMETIMES you will be right. About half the time, in fact.
I believe in bigger numbers and our own EXCLUSIVE 5% Rule™ says the S&P bottomed out at 800 (in 2009) doubled to 1,600 last Spring, consolidated there for a quarter and now has made a 20% move to 1,920 – just like it was supposed to since it bottomed in 2009 (see our many, many predictions over the years). In fact, it was March of 2012, with the S&P at 1,404, when we set our new goals for the S&P to 1,600. As I said at the time:
That's right, it turns out our +10% line is still pretty much right on the money, only now we switch our focus to our goal of 1,600 and begin running our numbers off there, rather than from 800. I know I have been (and still am) Fundamentally bearish on the market at the moment – I just think we are making this move too soon – but that is not to say I think the move is unmakeable.
XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Shares in the XLF are in negative territory this morning, down 0.90% at $18.39 as of 11:10 a.m. ET, amid broad-based declines in U.S. stocks spurred by an unexpected 0.4% decline in March retail sales and other soft economic data points. The price of the underlying fund is also being pressured by declines in JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. following first-quarter earnings reports from those companies prior to the opening bell. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo combined represent roughly 16% of the total holdings of the XLF. Big prints in short-dated XLF put options in the early going this morning suggests one trader is positioning for shares to extend losses in the near term. It looks like the strategist purchased 100,000 puts at the April 19 ’13 $18 strike for a premium of $0.06 per contract. The position starts making money if the price of the underlying declines 2.4% from the current level to breach the effective breakeven price of $17.94 by expiration next week. Put options on the XLF are far more active than calls, with the put/call ratio above 13.0 as of the time of this writing. Five of the top ten holdings in the XLF report quarterly earnings next week, including Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bancorp and American Express.
GSK - GlaxoSmithKline PLC – Bearish options changing hands on drug maker, GlaxoSmithKline, look for shares in the name to potentially slip further off a multi-year high of $48.55 realized on Thursday. Shares in GSK are down 0.40% on the day at $48.32 as of 11:45 a.m. ET. The April $47 strike puts on GSK are active for a second consecutive session, with roughly 5,000 contracts purchased this morning and around 2,000 lots purchased yesterday, all at a premium of $0.25 apiece. Put buyers make money if shares in GSK decline 3.25% from the current price of $48.32 to settle below the effective breakeven point at…
XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund – Shares in seven of the ten largest XLF holdings were trading lower this morning, dragging shares in the ETF down 0.40% to $17.19 at around 11:25 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Put buying on the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund during the morning hours of the trading day suggested some options players were preparing for the price of the underlying fund to extend losses. It looks like traders purchased 75,000 puts at the June $16 strike for an average premium of $0.35 per contract. These positions start making money if shares in the XLF decline 9.0% from the current level to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $15.65 by June expiration. Shares in the XLF last traded below $15.65 on December 4th. The price of the underlying is up roughly 5.0% year-to-date, and has gained nearly 30% since June of 2012.
VSI - Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. – Options on the specialty retailer of vitamins and nutritional supplements are more active than usual today, with shares in Vitamin Shoppe down sharply on the heels of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report ahead of the opening bell this morning. Shares in VSI are currently down more than 20% to stand at $50.33 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Buyers of in-the-money put options on the stock earlier in the trading session are seeing the value of their contracts rise as shares in the name continue to weaken. At around 9:45 a.m. ET, traders stepped in to purchase around 400 in-the-money puts at the April $55 strike for a premium of $4.20 per contract. Premium required to purchase the $55 strike put options, as of the time of this writing, has increased to $5.50 apiece just before midday on the East Coast. Traders long the puts at $4.20 per contract stand ready to profit at April expiration should shares in Vitamin Shoppe settle below the breakeven price of $50.80.…
PBR - Petrobras SA – Options on Petrobras are more active than usual this morning, with shares in the state-run Brazilian oil producer down more than 7.0% on the day to stand at a new 52-week low of $16.74 as of 10:45 a.m. ET. The stock dropped after the company reported fourth-quarter EBITDA that declined in the period, missing analyst expectations, and said it will lower dividend payments to shareholders. Trading traffic in PBR options is mixed, as some traders position for shares to weaken further, while others bet on a near-term rebound in the price of the underlying. Fresh interest in weekly puts is greatest at the Feb. 08 ’13 $16.5 strike where upwards of 4,100 lots have changed hands against one contract in open interest. Time and sales data suggests most of the puts were purchased at an average premium of $0.22 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit at expiration this week should PBR’s shares settle below the average breakeven price of $16.28. The Feb. 08 ’13 $17 strike puts are also in play, with around 2,000 in-the-money puts purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.45 each. Meanwhile, weekly call buyers snapping up Feb. 08 ’13 $17 and $17.5 strike calls at average premiums of $0.15 and $0.05 each, respectively, may profit at expiration in the event that Petrobras shares rebound by the end of the week. Similar strategies appear to be in play across the Feb. 15 ’13 expiration call and put options, as well as in the March expiry options contracts. Traders bracing for shares to move sharply lower paid an average premium of $0.09 per contract to buy around 380 of the Mar. $14 strike puts. These contracts make money if shares in the oil producer plunge 17% from the current price of $16.74 to trade south of $13.91 by March expiration.
PLX - Protalix Biotherapeutics, Inc. – Upside calls on biopharmaceutical company, Protalix Biotherapeutics, are changing hands this morning, with shares in the name up better than 21% on the…
XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – The single-largest trade initiated in XLF options on Tuesday protects against a limited, albeit substantial, adverse move in the price of the underlying fund during the next few months. Shares in the XLF reached their highest level in nearly two years this past Friday, trading up to $17.08 on the heels of a more than 25% rally since this time last year. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF is off slightly today, trading lower in line with the broader market, with the shares now down 0.70% to stand at $16.89 as of 12:45 p.m. in New York trading. One large options market participant is prepared to see continued declines in the price of the underlying with the purchase of a 95,000-lot April $14/$16 put spread today at a net premium outlay of $0.275 apiece. The spread makes money if shares in the XLF dip 7% to breach the effective breakeven price of $15.725, with maximum potential gains of $1.725 per contract available in the event of a more than 17% pullback to $14.00 by April expiration. Though the transaction was not tied to stock, it’s possible the position was implemented to hedge a long position in shares of the XLF.
PERI - Perion Network Ltd. – Shares in Tel Aviv, Israel-based digital media company, Perion Network, jumped more than 30% to a new all-time high of $12.47 today after the company forecast higher-than-expected earnings and sales for 2013. Options traders anticipating further gains in the price of the underlying during the next five weeks appear to be buying upside calls on the name. The Feb. $12.5 strike calls are the most actively traded contracts on Perion this morning, with upwards of 1,100 calls in play versus zero open positions. One or more bullish strategists acting within the first 10 minutes of the opening bell this morning purchased around 200 of the calls at a premium of $0.65 apiece. These contracts make money at expiration next month as long as shares in PERI…
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow.
For anyone who's been paying attention for the last two years – that's usually not a good thing and, as we noted yesterday, it was a strong Euro and a weak Dollar that was driving our little rally. The Dollar bottomed out at 79 and the Euro topped out at $1.314 and the Euro's strength sent the Yen back up to 79.30 to the Dollar (weaker) and that led to a 2% Nikkei rally last night. As you can see from the chart on the right, the S&P for the week is 1% behind UK and Germany and 2.5% behind France and Italy (+4%) and Spain (+7%) – so we have a lot of catching up to do if this rally is real and sustainable.
Still, I sent out an Alert to Members early this morning noting that the Global Markets were holding up well as of 6am and that was encouraging. Yesterday we discussed taking advantage of the run-up in the Russell to make a TZA hedge to lock in some of our gains (see main post) but we still haven't covered XLF (target $16.50 – see Dave Fry's chart) and we're still bullish on AAPL as well. We cashed that ISRG play, as planned for $9 on the spreads (200x = $1,800), spending .30 x 200 ($60) to buy back the callers so that, with the $200 we were paid to take the position is just short of our $2,000 goal at net $1,960 – not bad for a day's "work".
In Member Chat this morning, we discussed GOOG's outlook for earnings this evening and decided they were more likely topping than popping so we have that risk to the Nasdaq for tomorrow. IBM was an 80-point drag on the Dow yesterday but it did manage to finish flat and advancers led decliners on the NYSE by 2:1 so the conditions are still there for a rally and hopefully what we have here a a pause that refreshes and not a triple top from the mid-September highs.
The Nasdaq and the Russell are, in fact, in downtrending channels and, for the Nasdaq, their fate rests on GOOG tonight and AAPL next Thursday – but it's still a long way back to the highs at 3,200.
AOL - AOL, Inc. – Put activity on AOL this morning may be the work of one strategist locking in gains on the high-flying stock. Shares in AOL, up roughly 175% since October 2011, are currently down 1.8% on the day to stand at $35.92 as of 11:20 a.m. ET. The largest trade in AOL options this morning was the purchase of 4,500 of the Nov. $34 strike put for a premium of $0.80 per contract. The options trade does not appear to have been tied to stock, although the put buyer may be establishing downside protection to hedge an existing long position in the shares. Alternatively, the sizable transaction could be an outright bearish bet that shares will decline in the near term, perhaps in the aftermath of the company’s third-quarter earnings report on October 31st. The position makes money if shares in AOL drop 7.5% from the current level to breach the effective breakeven price of $33.20 by November expiration.
EXPR - Express, Inc. – Options in play on Express this morning suggests shares in the apparel retailer, hard hit in recent months and sitting at all-time lows, may stage a significant turn-around in the next six months. Express shares, down nearly 60% from a March 2012 peak of $26.27, fell 2.35% in the first half of the trading session to $11.23 by 11:35 a.m. in New York. Upside call buying at the April 2013 $15 strike, where some 2,300 contracts were picked up for an average premium of $0.73 apiece, suggests at least one trader is positioning for EXPR shares to potentially increase sharply by expiration next year. The calls may be profitable at April expiration in the event that Express, Inc. shares jump 40% to exceed the average breakeven price of $15.73. The specialty retailer reports third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on November 28th.…
One of the candidates will lower taxes for the middle class and small businesses while slamming shut loopholes on the rich and Big Business, limiting their deductions and raising taxes if needed, he will provide national health-care and concentrate on jobs, punishing outsourcers and educating US workers to get them on the path to full employment. The other candidate is already President. Romney now claims there will be no 20% tax cut for the rich – I assume his rich backers assume he's lying to get elected (lying doesn't bother them) and President Obama was in no way prepared to debate the guy who showed up yesterday and he lost the debate in an embarrassing fashion.
From a market perspective, we were playing the weakness as nervousness ahead of the debates and accumulating long positions as planned yesterday. Oil blew past the $88.50 target I set in yesterday's morning post – all the way to $87.70 before finally bouncing back and hitting our target again overnight (now $88.64). That drop from $91.22 in the Futures was good for $3,500 per contract in the Futures but, of course, we were done being short, as planned at $88.50 and in fact made a couple of bullish trades – long on USO at $33 (as planned) and short on SCO at $44. We'll see how they work out today but up at the open is a good sign.
Our bullish stance on AAPL finally paid off as the stock went from $660 to $672 at the close – hopefully $680 is next. Gasoline only got to $2.75 (we were hoping for $2.70) but is back to $2.86 already in pre-market trading (/RB).
As you can see from Dave Fry's Russell chart, we're still in a bullish consolidation – just below our breakout level and today, so far, we don't have rising Dollar headwinds to hold us back…
That's right, we have made not one inch of progress since we had the same exact title in last Wednesday's post, when I said: "This is the part where the MSM begins to realize that Manufacturing is slowing down, stimulus won't create jobs, earnings are not going to be as good as expected, Europe is not fixed, housing is not as strong as expected andthe stock market is being manipulated. Yep, all the stuff I've been telling you for months." Our plan was to buy into the dip and that's what we've been doing the past week as our short-term virtual portfolios are now much more bullish than they were a week ago.
As you can see from Dave Fry's weekly SPY chart, we're still in an uptrending channel and still over the major support line at 1,420 and we tested 1,430 at the end of last week but have, so far, held 1,440 this week.
Last week we were all worried about Spain because they were rioting in the streets and this week we are all worried about Spain because they haven't requested a bail-out yet. "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose," as they say in the country next to Spain…
In Member Chat last Wednesday, we took advantage of Oil Futures (/CL) testing $90 to go long and by the end of the week it was back to where we liked to short it at $93 and this morning, ahead of inventories, oil is at $91.22 but we're not long today as we don't expect the bulls to have much to get excited about but, if we get a dip to $88.50 that holds – we'd like to go long there. As you can see from this USO chart – we're pretty well stuck in the channel but the bottom is about $89 so I'm thinking a build this morning takes us just below the $33 line on USO.
AAPL was at $666 last Wednesday and they closed at $665 yesterday but we've worked ourselves into a more bullish position there (we had several long-term bullish trade ideas on AAPL in Member Chat that day). XLF was holding $15.50 and we went longer there – now $15.69. We added QQQ Oct $70s at .30 and yesterday we had the chance to add them again…
XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – US stocks are moving lower on Monday as European concerns creep back into the conversation, yet financial stocks are managing to hold onto slight gains this afternoon, with shares in the XLF up 0.06% at $15.84 as of 12:40 p.m. in New York. Put options on the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF saw heavy volume near the open after one big options market participant established a large bear put spread. It looks like the strategist purchased a 165,000-lot Dec. $13/$15 put spread, paying a net premium of $0.265 per contract. The trade makes money if shares in the XLF decline 7% to trade below $14.735, while maximum potential profits of $1.735 per contract are available on the position in the event XLF shares plunge 18% from the current level to settle at or below $13.00 at December expiration. Shares in the XLF last traded below $13.00 in December 2011.
FDS - FactSet Research Systems, Inc.– Options on the provider of financial and economic data are active today ahead of FactSet’s fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for release prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. Shares in FactSet Research Systems are up 2.5% at $103.05 as of 12:05 p.m. ET. Some options traders appear to be bulking up on downside puts ahead of earnings, while others are getting long bullish calls in anticipation of further gains in the price of the underlying shares in the near term. Strategists prepared to benefit from a pullback in the stock picked up around 450 puts at the Oct. $95 strike in the first hour of the trading week for a premium of $1.40 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event FDS shares drop 9% to trade below the effective breakeven price of $93.60. Volume in FDS options is heaviest in the Oct. $100 strike where more than 2,000 puts changed hands…
I looked over the weekly Petroleum Inventory Report put out by the EIA today, and the biggest takeaway by far was that U.S. oil production set a new modern era high at 9.566 Million Barrels per day. The last high in U.S. production occurred in March, and it appeared that the U.S. production numbers were getting slightly weaker, and maybe the top in U.S. production was in. But this past week Production really ramped back up with a blowout ...
This past week, Houston, where I live, was flooded by a torrential down pour. However, it was not the rain itself that was the problem, it was the surge in rivers that flow through Houston. As far away as Austin and Dallas, rainfall had already began to flow into the San Jacinto and Colorado rivers which eventually culminated in rising water levels in Houston. Furthermore, Houston is designed so that water flows into the streets and eventually into the bayou and rivers out to the Gulf of Mexico. It didn't take much mor...
Could the S&P 500 be pulling a repeat of the 2000-2007 topping process?
The chart above reflects that the tops in 2000 & 2007 were 7 years and 7 months apart. Is it possible that another top is taking place 7 years and 7 months from the 2007 high? As the S&P is facing this potential time window repeating pattern, it is also staring the Fibonacci 161% Extension resistance level based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows, at the top of a rising wedge.
Is the S&P the only market facing a breakout test? The chart below takes a look at the white hot DAX index.
After 2 volatile days, a return to more calm on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 0.13% and the NASDAQ 0.17%. The daily Greek drama continues; IMF Managing Director Christine Lagare told a German newspaper that a Greek exit from the euro zone was possible but that this would probably not herald the end of the euro currency. On Wednesday, both U.S. and European equities rallied after Greece said it had stated crafting a “staff level agreement” with its international bailout supervisors. However, European officials rebuked the claims on Thursday, saying there was some way to go before any agreement could be drawn up and that they were surprised by the upbeat sentiment from Greece.
Indexes look much the same as we entered the week.
Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...
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Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company. The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place. Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.
Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants. This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales. However, in the c...
Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.
On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...
Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching.
Phil writes: If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher. Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8. So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.
UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...
Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself.
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.
Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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