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Posts Tagged ‘XRTX’

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter

Housing-keeping note: Thanks to WordPress’s destruction of Phil’s Favorites site (and replacement with an invite to sign up for its service!), I’ve been relocating my blog to TypePad.  Benefits: it looks better, is very user friendly and offers an easy way to search archives for any topic. One unique feature is that while exploring the internet, I can simply click on a button to post an excerpt of an interesting article with a link to the full article. That ability allows me to post links to articles that are worth reading when I do not have reprinting permission, such as articles from major news sources. 

The new Favorites site is here.  I’ve also created a website for Dark Horse Hedge, here.  - Ilene 

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any Way the Wind Blows, Doesn’t Really Matter

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Is this the real life? 
Is this just fantasy? 
Caught in a landslide 
No escape from reality 
Open your eyes 
Look up to the skies and see 
I’m just a poor boy (Poor boy) 
I need no sympathy 
Because I’m easy come, easy go 
Little high, little low 
Any way the wind blows 
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

 *****

Ilene and I started the Dark Horse Hedge on July 1, 2010 with the goal of helping self-directed investors weather any storm, no matter which way the wind was blowing.  Today completes the second month of publishing the Dark Horse Hedge and we thought it would be a good time to review.  

 

September 1976:  British rock group Queen at Les Ambassadeurs, where they were presented with silver, gold and platinum discs for sales in excess of one million of their hit single 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. The band are, from left to right, John Deacon, Freddie Mercury (Frederick Bulsara, 1946 - 1991), Roger Taylor and Brian May.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

The
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe, I believe I’m sinking down.

Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe,
I believe I’m sinking down.

- Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the SPX hasn’t been able to break through resistance at 1096 and essentially has gone nowhere since last Thursday.…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE

DARK HORSE HEDGE 7-18-10

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Friday gave us a real-time example of why we use Hysteresis* and confirmations from our technical signals, MACD 12-26-9 and RSI 14-day, to select and monitor the tilt (long-short ratio) of the Dark Horse Hedge’s portfolio.  

The SHORT tilt Friday allowed us to make +1.37% from our 6 SHORT, 3 LONG positions while the S&P 500 gave back -2.88%.  The economic data out Friday of course played a large roll in the failure of our indicators to turn from short to BALANCED.  A sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Index to 65 in July compared poorly with a June figure of 76 and Briefing.com’s estimate of 74.5.  Google’s earnings miss didn’t help either as the S&P 500 fell through its short-term support area to close at 1064.88.  The MACD reading is currently at -3.56 and RSI 14-day at 42.85 (bullish signal is above 50).  The preponderance of evidence heading into the July 19 week is that the market needs to find support in the 1040 range.  

Despite the poor economic data that pushed the market lower on Friday, 19 of 23 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far reported better than projected EPS, and 15 of them beat revenues as well.

Earnings reports will continue to flow in this week.  In our portfolio Western Digital Corp (WDC, long position) reports profits on Tuesday while USG Corp (USG, short position) and Sun Trust Banks Inc (STI, short position) report their losses on July 22.  We will continue to monitor the market action and look for guidance on entering new positions. Key support areas appear to be 1040, 1022 and then 995.

Dark Horse Hedge maintains 10% cash for swing trade opportunities and we are highlighting one for entry on Monday at the Open.

SHORT Terex Corp. (TEX) at the Open Monday.  

TEX will report its latest loss figures on Tuesday, July 21. Twenty analysts project losses ranging from -$.15 to -$.44 with an average of -$.30.  Looking back over the last four quarterly announcements, we see analysts often underestimate Terex’s losses.  For example, in March 2010, analysts estimated -$.52 while the actual loss was $.64. In December 2009, analysts targeted -$.49 and TEX delivered -$.89.  In September 2009, the loss was projected to be $.34 and the company came in at -$.77.  In June 2009, investors were…
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Sabrient Select Opportunity Virtual Portfolio

Sabrient Select Opportunity Virtual Portfolio

Harvest Partial Profits in XRTX

As I have discussed before, I am a proponent of "profit harvesting," in which you take partial trading profits in a position once it moves strongly in your direction. In general, for swing trades, I would look to bank profits in 1/3 of a position once it has provided a 10% gain, and then another 1/3 when the balance of the position has reached a 20% gain, and then I would let the final 1/3 position ride — without letting it turn into a loss. Today, we have an opportunity to lock in initial profits in long position XRTX, which we entered on July 6.

XRTX is up about +3.5% today and showing relative strength. Its current price of $13.53 puts our long position at about a 10% profit from the original entry price of $12.30. So, I recommend selling 1/3 of the original long position at the current price or higher, if you can monitor it. This allows us to bank some nice partial profits while letting the bulk of the long position ride in anticipation of even higher prices.

For the remaining open long position in XRTX, I will consider stopping out if it trades below the entry price of $12.30.

Best Regards,

Scott Martindale 


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The Dark Horse Hedge

The Dark Horse Hedge

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene, at Phil’s Stock World

Silhouette of Horses Jumping a Steeplchase

Scott Brown, Managing Director – Retail Division at Sabrient, is launching a newsletter with Phil’s Stock World based on the highly successful and popular Investors’ (H)Edge product.  The Dark Horse Hedge newsletter is a Long/Short retail portfolio taking advantage of technical market trends to tilt the balance of LONG vs. SHORT in bearish, bullish or range bound markets for added Alpha (the measure of return on a risk adjusted basis).  Long and short equity positions taken in The Dark Horse Hedge portfolio will be chosen using to Sabrient’s rating system, which is primarily based on fundamental criteria. Because the stock positions will generally be held for intermediate to long periods, these positions are ideal for using with option strategies taught by Phil Davis, of Phil’s Stock World.

The Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) newsletter will follow a number of guidelines in an attempt to minimize systemic risk, or “Beta.” Beta is a measure of the volatility of a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.  To keep beta low, the DHH portfolio will have both long and short positions.  Consequently, dramatic moves in the market will always be in the direction of at least part of the portfolio.

Using Sabrient’s rating system, we will focus on being long high quality stocks, and short low quality stocks.  Long positions should fare better than average during market selloffs.  In contrast, the short positions, selected from the lowest ranking stocks, should perform well during selloffs. These stocks are also expected to underperform higher quality names in a stronger market.  This strategy is designed to balance the goal of attaining Alpha with the desire to keep Beta relatively low.

We will follow this list of guidelines in building the DHH portfolio.

1.  When fully invested, the Portfolio will have 24 positions.  However the portfolio may not be fully invested.

2.  Tilting (or weighing) of the portfolio will be based on the position of the SPX relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages

  • If the SPX is below both its 50


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Xyratex’s Earnings Forecast Inspires Bullish Options Activity

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: XRTX, EXEL, PBR, F, BPOP, ALTH, RIG, MYL, HIG & SYMC

XRTX – Xyratex, Ltd. – Shares of the provider of data storage and network technology surged 13.7% at the start of the trading session to a new 52-week high of $19.25 after the firm said it anticipates earnings per share of at least $1.10 in the second quarter. The company’s earnings forecast is significantly greater than the consensus estimate of $0.76 per share. The wear-and-tear of the trading session parsed some of the early-morning rally, but Xyratex’s shares are still up 9.50% to $18.56 as of 2:45 pm (ET). Bullish investors prepared for continued appreciation in the price of the underlying by purchasing 1,100 calls at the June $20 strike for an average premium of $1.49 apiece. Call-buyers at this strike profit only if shares surge 15.8% from the current price of $18.56 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $21.49 by expiration day in June. Options traders exchanged 5,025 contracts on the stock during the trading day, which is nearly on par with total existing open interest on XRTX of 5,656 contracts.

EXEL – Exelixis, Inc. – Bullish options trading tactics were employed on the biotechnology company this afternoon as the firm’s shares surged 11.7% to an intraday high of $6.78. It looks like one investor sold 5,000 puts short at the November $5.0 strike price to take in an average premium of $0.40 per contract. The put seller keeps the full premium received on the transaction as long as shares of Exelixis trade above $5.00 through expiration day in November. By selling the put contracts, the investor implies he is willing to have shares of the underlying stock put to him at an effective price of $4.60 each in the event that the put options land in-the-money at expiration. The jump in options activity on the stock and the shift in share price lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility on Exelixis 42.2% to 82.1% in the final hours of the trading week.

PBR – Petroleo Brasileiro SA – A debit call spread enacted on Brazilian oil and gas company, Petroleo Brasileiro, suggests one investor is positioning for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock through July expiration. PetroBras’ shares rallied 1.9% late in afternoon trading to stand at $45.35 as of 2:30 pm (ET). The optimistic options trader purchased 2,500…
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Market Shadows

Riding in Toyota Today

Riding in Toyota Today

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows Virtual Value Portfolio put most of our remaining cash reserves to work this morning in buying 38 ADRs (American Depository Receipts) of Toyota Motor Company (TM) the world’s largest seller of automobiles and trucks.  We like and already own shares of Honda (HMC) as well.

The stock was down overnight due to negative action in the Japanese marketplace so we got a great entry price of just $106.57 per ADR today.

Toyota’s 52-week range has b...



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Chart School

How Long to the Next Recession? iM's Weekly Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The BCI at 169.3 is down from last week's upward revised level of 169.5. BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, at 16.9 is down from last week's upward revised 17.5. This week's BCI shows no recessionary trends.

Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.



Click for a larger image

The off-peak indicato...



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Zero Hedge

Desperate Ukraine Pleads: "Red Line Has Already Been Crossed"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky exhorted to US State department officials, "let's not look for further time frames," demanding "all necessary pressure" be applied now. The red line has already been crossed and, as Bloomberg reports,  Lubkivsky says he hopes U.S., EU don’t prioritize political concerns over moral ones and that the West will help with economic, diplomatic and military assistance.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

“Let’s not look for further time frames” and instead exert “all necessary pressure,” Ukrainian deputy foreign minister Danylo Lubkivsky tells State Dept officials, jo...



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Phil's Favorites

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most In 4 Months, Continuing Claims At Best Since 2007

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Initial jobless claims surged from 304k to 329k this week, the biggest weekly rise since mid-December. From exuberance at new cycle lows, we swing to the average of the last 8 months. This is the biggest miss to expectations in over 2 months. Continuing Claims dropped further to new cycle lows at 2.68 million (beating expectations) - its lowest since Dec 2007. So this is as good as it gets for continuing claims - America is back at its best!

Initial claims surges back up to its average of the last 8 months...

...



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Insider Scoop

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Sells Demolition Business for $5.3M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GLDD Imperial Capital's Top 8 Investment Opportunities Barron's Recap: Meltdown For 3D Printing?

vGreat Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (NASDAQ: GLDD), the largest provider of dredging services in the United States and a major provider of environmental and remediation services, today announced that on April 23, 2014, it completed the sale of NASDI, LLC and Yankee Environmental Services, LLC, its two subsidiaries that comprise ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Casino Stocks LVS, WYNN On The Run Ahead of Earnings

Shares in Las Vegas Sands Corp. (Ticker: LVS) are up sharply today, gaining as much as 5.7% to touch $80.12 and the highest level since April 4th, mirroring gains in shares of resort casino operator Wynn Resorts Ltd. (Ticker: WYNN). The move in Wynn shares appears, at least in part, to follow a big increase in target price from analysts at CLSA who upped their target on the ‘buy’ rated stock to $350 from $250 a share. CLSA also has a ‘buy’ rating on Las Vegas Sands with a $100 price target according to a note from reporter, Janet Freund, on Bloomberg. Both companies are scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday.

...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Market Poised to Head Higher: 3 Stocks to Consider

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Yesterday, the market continued its winning ways for the fifth consecutive day.  The S&P 500 closed within 1% of its all-time high, and the DJI was even closer to its all-time high.  Healthcare, Energy and Technology led the sectors while Financials, Telecom, and Utilities finished slightly in the red.  All three sectors in the red are typically flight-to-safety stocks, so despite lower than average volume, the market appears poised to make new highs.

Mid-cap Growth led the style/caps last week, up 2.87%, and Small-cap Growth trailed, up 2.22%. This week will bring well over 100 S&P 500 stocks reporting their March quarter earn...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of April 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up for a free trial.

...

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Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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