Posts Tagged ‘XRTX’

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter

Housing-keeping note: Thanks to WordPress’s destruction of Phil’s Favorites site (and replacement with an invite to sign up for its service!), I’ve been relocating my blog to TypePad.  Benefits: it looks better, is very user friendly and offers an easy way to search archives for any topic. One unique feature is that while exploring the internet, I can simply click on a button to post an excerpt of an interesting article with a link to the full article. That ability allows me to post links to articles that are worth reading when I do not have reprinting permission, such as articles from major news sources. 

The new Favorites site is here.  I’ve also created a website for Dark Horse Hedge, here.  - Ilene 

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any Way the Wind Blows, Doesn’t Really Matter

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Is this the real life? 
Is this just fantasy? 
Caught in a landslide 
No escape from reality 
Open your eyes 
Look up to the skies and see 
I’m just a poor boy (Poor boy) 
I need no sympathy 
Because I’m easy come, easy go 
Little high, little low 
Any way the wind blows 
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

 *****

Ilene and I started the Dark Horse Hedge on July 1, 2010 with the goal of helping self-directed investors weather any storm, no matter which way the wind was blowing.  Today completes the second month of publishing the Dark Horse Hedge and we thought it would be a good time to review.  

 

September 1976:  British rock group Queen at Les Ambassadeurs, where they were presented with silver, gold and platinum discs for sales in excess of one million of their hit single 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. The band are, from left to right, John Deacon, Freddie Mercury (Frederick Bulsara, 1946 - 1991), Roger Taylor and Brian May.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

The
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe, I believe I’m sinking down.

Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe,
I believe I’m sinking down.

- Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the SPX hasn’t been able to break through resistance at 1096 and essentially has gone nowhere since last Thursday.…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE

DARK HORSE HEDGE 7-18-10

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Friday gave us a real-time example of why we use Hysteresis* and confirmations from our technical signals, MACD 12-26-9 and RSI 14-day, to select and monitor the tilt (long-short ratio) of the Dark Horse Hedge’s portfolio.  

The SHORT tilt Friday allowed us to make +1.37% from our 6 SHORT, 3 LONG positions while the S&P 500 gave back -2.88%.  The economic data out Friday of course played a large roll in the failure of our indicators to turn from short to BALANCED.  A sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Index to 65 in July compared poorly with a June figure of 76 and Briefing.com’s estimate of 74.5.  Google’s earnings miss didn’t help either as the S&P 500 fell through its short-term support area to close at 1064.88.  The MACD reading is currently at -3.56 and RSI 14-day at 42.85 (bullish signal is above 50).  The preponderance of evidence heading into the July 19 week is that the market needs to find support in the 1040 range.  

Despite the poor economic data that pushed the market lower on Friday, 19 of 23 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far reported better than projected EPS, and 15 of them beat revenues as well.

Earnings reports will continue to flow in this week.  In our portfolio Western Digital Corp (WDC, long position) reports profits on Tuesday while USG Corp (USG, short position) and Sun Trust Banks Inc (STI, short position) report their losses on July 22.  We will continue to monitor the market action and look for guidance on entering new positions. Key support areas appear to be 1040, 1022 and then 995.

Dark Horse Hedge maintains 10% cash for swing trade opportunities and we are highlighting one for entry on Monday at the Open.

SHORT Terex Corp. (TEX) at the Open Monday.  

TEX will report its latest loss figures on Tuesday, July 21. Twenty analysts project losses ranging from -$.15 to -$.44 with an average of -$.30.  Looking back over the last four quarterly announcements, we see analysts often underestimate Terex’s losses.  For example, in March 2010, analysts estimated -$.52 while the actual loss was $.64. In December 2009, analysts targeted -$.49 and TEX delivered -$.89.  In September 2009, the loss was projected to be $.34 and the company came in at -$.77.  In June 2009, investors were…
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Sabrient Select Opportunity Virtual Portfolio

Sabrient Select Opportunity Virtual Portfolio

Harvest Partial Profits in XRTX

As I have discussed before, I am a proponent of "profit harvesting," in which you take partial trading profits in a position once it moves strongly in your direction. In general, for swing trades, I would look to bank profits in 1/3 of a position once it has provided a 10% gain, and then another 1/3 when the balance of the position has reached a 20% gain, and then I would let the final 1/3 position ride — without letting it turn into a loss. Today, we have an opportunity to lock in initial profits in long position XRTX, which we entered on July 6.

XRTX is up about +3.5% today and showing relative strength. Its current price of $13.53 puts our long position at about a 10% profit from the original entry price of $12.30. So, I recommend selling 1/3 of the original long position at the current price or higher, if you can monitor it. This allows us to bank some nice partial profits while letting the bulk of the long position ride in anticipation of even higher prices.

For the remaining open long position in XRTX, I will consider stopping out if it trades below the entry price of $12.30.

Best Regards,

Scott Martindale 


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The Dark Horse Hedge

The Dark Horse Hedge

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene, at Phil’s Stock World

Silhouette of Horses Jumping a Steeplchase

Scott Brown, Managing Director – Retail Division at Sabrient, is launching a newsletter with Phil’s Stock World based on the highly successful and popular Investors’ (H)Edge product.  The Dark Horse Hedge newsletter is a Long/Short retail portfolio taking advantage of technical market trends to tilt the balance of LONG vs. SHORT in bearish, bullish or range bound markets for added Alpha (the measure of return on a risk adjusted basis).  Long and short equity positions taken in The Dark Horse Hedge portfolio will be chosen using to Sabrient’s rating system, which is primarily based on fundamental criteria. Because the stock positions will generally be held for intermediate to long periods, these positions are ideal for using with option strategies taught by Phil Davis, of Phil’s Stock World.

The Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) newsletter will follow a number of guidelines in an attempt to minimize systemic risk, or “Beta.” Beta is a measure of the volatility of a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.  To keep beta low, the DHH portfolio will have both long and short positions.  Consequently, dramatic moves in the market will always be in the direction of at least part of the portfolio.

Using Sabrient’s rating system, we will focus on being long high quality stocks, and short low quality stocks.  Long positions should fare better than average during market selloffs.  In contrast, the short positions, selected from the lowest ranking stocks, should perform well during selloffs. These stocks are also expected to underperform higher quality names in a stronger market.  This strategy is designed to balance the goal of attaining Alpha with the desire to keep Beta relatively low.

We will follow this list of guidelines in building the DHH portfolio.

1.  When fully invested, the Portfolio will have 24 positions.  However the portfolio may not be fully invested.

2.  Tilting (or weighing) of the portfolio will be based on the position of the SPX relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages

  • If the SPX is below both its 50


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Xyratex’s Earnings Forecast Inspires Bullish Options Activity

Today’s tickers: XRTX, EXEL, PBR, F, BPOP, ALTH, RIG, MYL, HIG & SYMC

XRTX – Xyratex, Ltd. – Shares of the provider of data storage and network technology surged 13.7% at the start of the trading session to a new 52-week high of $19.25 after the firm said it anticipates earnings per share of at least $1.10 in the second quarter. The company’s earnings forecast is significantly greater than the consensus estimate of $0.76 per share. The wear-and-tear of the trading session parsed some of the early-morning rally, but Xyratex’s shares are still up 9.50% to $18.56 as of 2:45 pm (ET). Bullish investors prepared for continued appreciation in the price of the underlying by purchasing 1,100 calls at the June $20 strike for an average premium of $1.49 apiece. Call-buyers at this strike profit only if shares surge 15.8% from the current price of $18.56 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $21.49 by expiration day in June. Options traders exchanged 5,025 contracts on the stock during the trading day, which is nearly on par with total existing open interest on XRTX of 5,656 contracts.

EXEL – Exelixis, Inc. – Bullish options trading tactics were employed on the biotechnology company this afternoon as the firm’s shares surged 11.7% to an intraday high of $6.78. It looks like one investor sold 5,000 puts short at the November $5.0 strike price to take in an average premium of $0.40 per contract. The put seller keeps the full premium received on the transaction as long as shares of Exelixis trade above $5.00 through expiration day in November. By selling the put contracts, the investor implies he is willing to have shares of the underlying stock put to him at an effective price of $4.60 each in the event that the put options land in-the-money at expiration. The jump in options activity on the stock and the shift in share price lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility on Exelixis 42.2% to 82.1% in the final hours of the trading week.

PBR – Petroleo Brasileiro SA – A debit call spread enacted on Brazilian oil and gas company, Petroleo Brasileiro, suggests one investor is positioning for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock through July expiration. PetroBras’ shares rallied 1.9% late in afternoon trading to stand at $45.35 as of 2:30 pm (ET). The optimistic options trader purchased 2,500…
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Zero Hedge

Ex-Spy Chief Admits Role In 'Deep State' Intelligence War On Trump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An ex-spy chief who spoke out publicly against Trump while inspiring other career intelligence figures to follow suit has admitted his leading role in the intelligence community waging political war against the president, describing his actions as something he didn't "fully think through". In a surprisingly frank interview, the CIA's Michael Morell - who was longtime Deputy Director and former Acting Director of the nation's most powerful intelligence agency - said that it wasn't a great idea to leak against and bash a new president...



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Insider Scoop

7 Stocks To Watch For December 12, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Casey's General Stores Inc (NASDAQ: CASY) reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its second quarter. Casey's shares dropped 3.62 percent to $116.86 in the after-hours trading session.
  • KMG Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE: KMG) reported upbeat results for its first quarter on Monday. KMG Che...


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Phil's Favorites

Life expectancy in Britain has fallen so much that a million years of life could disappear by 2058 - why?

 

Life expectancy in Britain has fallen so much that a million years of life could disappear by 2058 – why?

Courtesy of Danny DorlingUniversity of Oxford and Stuart Gietel-BastenHong Kong University of Science and Technology

via shutterstock.com

Buried deep in a note towards the end of a recent bulletin published by the British government’s statistical agency was a startling revelation. On average, people in the UK are now projected to live ...



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Digital Currencies

No, Bitcoin Won't Boil The Oceans

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Elaine Ou via Bloomberg.com,

Concerns about the cryptocurrency's energy use are overblown...

While much of the world marvels at bitcoin’s meteoric rise, another part is focused on an environmental byproduct:

The sheer amount of electricity that crypto-currencies use.

By some estimates, bitcoin’s consumption ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin?  $11K last week – $16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures)

Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017 in mega cap tech land, but in the end all was well again by Friday.

“The Nasdaq Composite Index was getting a little frothy, so it&...



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Biotech

DNA has gone digital - what could possibly go wrong?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA has gone digital – what could possibly go wrong?

Courtesy of Jenna E. GallegosColorado State University and Jean PeccoudColorado State University

Modern advances come with new liabilities. Sergey ...



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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