Top Trades for Fri, 17 Nov 2017 15:51 – GT

GT/Calch – I think they rode the wave of pent-up demand (from the recession) that has boosted the whole auto sector.  I don't think it will be as easy moving forward but tires do wear out and people buy new cars so it's a great company to buy on the dip.   We used to own them at $10, then they got expensive – it's hard to love them at $30 but it is a good price.  

Since you can sell the 2020 $28 puts for $4, that's free money (as $28 is a great price anyway) and then you can use that to buy the 2020 $25 ($7.85)/$35 ($3.30) bull call spread at $4.55 and then you are in the $10 spread that's half in the money for net 0.55.  That's so good we should do 10 of them in the LTP!   That makes the upside $9,450 (1,718%) at $35 in 2 years and worst-case is you own the stock at $28.55.  

 





Top Trades for Tue, 14 Nov 2017 15:37 – NVS

Due to the change in categorization of high blood-pressure, I want to do a long play on NVS.  They aren't particularly cheap at $83 but I feel good about the premise that they'll get more business and have good quarters moving forward.  So for the LTP:

  • Sell 5 NVS 2020 $75 puts for $5 ($2,500) 
  • Buy 10 NVS 2020 $80 calls for $9.20 ($9,200) 
  • Sell 10 NVS 2020 $100 calls for $2.25 ($2,250) 

So that's net $4,450 on the $20,000 spread that's $3,000 in the money to start and we'll see how it goes and probably sell some calls along the way.  This is just a small position to remind us to watch it but, if it takes off, it's still good for $15,550 (+300%) so fine either way.





Top Trades for Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:40 – TWTR

TWTR is interesting as they just raised the character limit and launched their $99 subscription thing:

Our OOP target for them is $18 and that's sensible but it's for Jan and we'll be called away and it's $20 in the LTP – also to be called away with full gains.  

As a replacement trade, I don't want to go crazy and I think either their new stuff works or it's an epic fail so I think just a bull call spread is good though there are no 2020s yet, so that's annoying.  Still, I'm worried they will pop from here so let's lock it down and add:

For the OOP:

  • Buy 15 TWTR 2019 $15 calls for $6.60 ($9,900) 
  • Sell 15 TWTR 2019 $22 calls for $3.10 ($4,650)
  • Sell 5 TWTR Jan $21 calls for $1 ($500) 

That's net $4,750 on the $10,500 spread so $5,750 (121%) upside potential if TWTR gains just 10% next year.  Of course our goal is to sell at least $500 worth of calls every other month and knock off $3,000 or so from our basis.

For the LTP:

  • Buy 50 TWTR 2019 $15 calls for $6.60 ($33,000) 
  • Sell 50 TWTR 2019 $22 calls for $3.10 ($15,500)
  • Sell 20 TWTR Jan $21 calls for $1 ($2,000) 

Here we're netting in for $15,500 on the $35,000 spread so the upside is $19,500 (125%) and hopefully $12,000 worth of short calls to sell.  Of course when 2020s come out we'll probably roll our long calls to those, which will then give us more of a safety net to sell more short-term calls (and puts when there's a dip). 

 





Top Trades for Thu, 09 Nov 2017 10:03 – M

M/Jabob – Over $18 already, silly boy.  cool  Earning $3 per $18 share could be my Stock of the Year for next year since LB has gotten away from us.  

In the very least, M should be a Top Trade today as we can certainly say we'd LOVE to own them at this level:

  • Sell 10 M 2020 $20 puts for $6 ($6,000)
  • Buy 30 M 2020 $15 calls for $5.20 ($15,600) 
  • Sell 30 M 2020 $22 calls for $3 ($9,000) 

That's net $600 on the $21,000 spread that's $3 ($9,000) in the money to start (but you have to clear $20 to cash in the longs without impairment).  Seriously, this would be my Trade of the Year for 2018 if it were Thanksgiving at this price!   M is already in the OOP and LTP and I'll consider later if I want to adjust but today's report justified our targets.  

KSS misses – that one was a no-brainer.  JWN Will have to break the tie.  

 





Top Trades for Mon, 06 Nov 2017 12:12 – DIS

AAPL/Batman – I don't know, if next Q beats this Q and if they are going to repatriate $280Bn in cash at 12.5% tax, there's a pretty good chance they'll drop a special dividend or buy back $100Bn (10%) of their own stock, which will boost future earnings by 10% – lots of ways to spin things positive when your cash flow is approaching $15Bn/Qtr.

Speaking of Billions, Thor did over $500M for the weekend in wide IMAX release (International).  Keep your eyes on IMAX and DIS – both in the LTP and the OOP.

As a new trade on DIS, I'd go this way:

  • Buy 10 DIS 2020 $90 calls for $17.50 ($17,500)
  • Sell 10 DIS 2020 $110 calls for $8.25 ($8,250)
  • Sell 5 DIS 2020 $92.50 puts for $8 ($4,000)  

That's net $5,250 on the $20,000 spread so $14,750 (280%) upside at $110 in two years.  

 





Top Trades for Thu, 02 Nov 2017 12:01 – TEVA, M & CBI

Wow, these Republicans have totally lost touch with Americans.  They have come up with a figure of $1,182/yr that will be saved in taxes by the "average" American making the average $52,000 salary and the Dems are going to rip them to shreds by pulling examples of Trump officials who save $11,820,000 on their taxes and GOP Congressmen who save $1,182,000.  "Is Paul Ryan 1,000 times better than you?   Then ask the Republicans why he should get a 1,000 times bigger tax cut than you do?"  This stuff writes itself!  

Wow, boom goes /KC – blasting up to $130 (which is now the stop).

New trades/Pat – OK, now things are calming down so, as new trades (though I would not be quick to jump the gun):

  • Sell 5 TEVA 2019 $12.50 puts for $3 ($1,500) 
  • Buy 1,000 shares TEVA for $11.91 ($11,910) 
  • Sell $10 TEVA 2019 $10 calls for $3.75 ($3,750)

That's net $6,660 for 1,000 shares of TEVA and the dividend is $1.09 (16%) while you wait to see if you get called away with a 50% gain.  

  • Sell 10 M 2020 $15 puts for $3 ($3,000)
  • Buy 20 M 2020 $18 calls for $4.20 ($8,400) 
  • Sell 20 M 2020 $22 calls for $3.10 ($6,200) 

That's a net credit of $800 with $8,000 more upside at $22 and the worst case is being assigned 1,000 shares at net $14.20, which is 25% below the current price.  Upside potential is $8,800 (1,100%).

  • Sell 10 CBI 2020 $12.50 puts for $4.10 ($4,100) 
  • Buy 20 CBI 2020 $12.50 calls for $5.60 ($11,200) 
  • Sell 20 CBI 2020 $20 calls for $3.40 ($6,800)

This one nets $300 on the $15,000 spread that's $4,000 in the money to start.  Upside potential is $14,700 (4,900%) and worst case is owning 1,000 shares of CBI for $12.80, 15% below the current price. 

 





Top Trades for Thu, 26 Oct 2017 13:15 – CELG

Dollar over 94.  Very likely to testy 95 now.  

Yep, such a healthy Global Economy.  Move along, nothing to see here…

Silver and gold taking a hit:

I've got 2 long /SI now at $16.90 avg.  

CELG/Albo – A stock down 20% in a day is generally waiting for an excuse to go lower.  They lowered targets all the way out to 2020 but it is still $7 per now $96 share so p/e around 14 is not terrible so, if it's right for your portfolio, keep an eye on the short 2020 $80 puts, now $10 – as that's a nice entry and then maybe the $80 ($30)/110 ($16) bull call spread at $14 and you've netted in for $4 on the $30 spread that's 50% in the money.  In fact, though I think we can do better, we can start with 5 units in the LTP as that costs us just $2,000 of our cash but makes $15,000 if CELG recovers in 2 years.  

Keep in mind, Albo, that we intend to at least DD once on this small entry so if it goes lower, we'll be THRILLED to step up our position.





Top Trades for Wed, 25 Oct 2017 15:34 – ABX

Lots of trade ideas during the Webinar today.  Back shorting /RBZ7 at $1.685 – be careful in /RB as the /RBX7 expires tomorrow.  

ABX/Lunar – Yes, in the Webinar we decided 50 2020 $15 ($3.45)/$22 ($1.35) bull call spread at net $2.10 ($10,500) and 25 short $15 puts at $2.20 ($5,500) for net $5,000 on the $35,000 spread was an excellent trade into earnings as we're not worried if they go lower as we'd be happy to buy more and, if they pop, you'll be right in the money with $30,000 (600%) upside potential.

Boomers/Scott – Flee the country before it's too late:

Image result for baby boomer retirement

And it's up to Donald Trump to guide us through this critical period!  About 4M people per year hitting $65 going forward but it's worse because the people in their 80s aren't dying to make room.  55% of the people have less than $100K to retire on.  This is going to get so ugly!  

 





Top Trades for Tue, 24 Oct 2017 11:32 – WHR and GILD

WHR/Baron, Albo - I'm liking them more if Kenmore is still being made by WHR.  That makes this fairly inconsequential.  I imagine that 3% number is correct for the WHR brand but Kenmore is huge, hard to imagine they are including that.   

Anyway, this is what we call and Option Opportunity so let's take advantage of the sell-off and sell 5 of the WHR 2019 $130 puts for $7 ($3,500) in the OOP and, in the LTP, let's sell 5 of the WHR 2019 $155 puts for $15 ($7,500) and see how things go.  

T/Jasu – Yes, waiting to see how the merger ends up.  Nothing wrong with taking a poke here but you may be stuck with old options if they re-issue, and you know how annoying that is.

GILD/Lunar – Well, they are up over 20% since our bottom at $65 and we have a 3/4 covered 2019 $60/75 bull call spread and short $65 puts so my thoughts are I'm very happy with that – it's already up $20,000 our of $30,000 potential and, if they dip on some earnings disappointment, I may want to get more aggressive but most likely they will be over $85 after earnings.  

As a new play on GILD, I like the 2020 $75 ($15)/$90 ($9) bull call spread at $6.  You can buy 10 of those for $6,000 and sell 5 of the 2020 $65 puts for $6 ($3,000) to net into the longs at $3,000 with a $15,000 payoff at $90 and a $12,000 profits (400%).





Top Trades for Tue, 17 Oct 2017 12:03 – IBM and WSM

IBM/Crs – Well IBM is not at $150 so there's not really an issue, is there?  It's only a 1/2 sale and the Jan $150s are now $3.10 and the March $160s are $1.40, so there's your 2x roll or the June $165s are $1.70 and by then you are in the money on the 2020 spread and you're fully covered anyway, so why are you worried at all?  If you think it's too tight and you are bullish, buy back 2 of the 5 covers and then you are more bullish into earnings.  If you have the ability to buy 10 of the $160/180 spreads after the short $150s go in the money, then I wouldn't worry about it as is.  

I like IBM into earnings, by the way, you can sell the 2020 $130 puts for $12 to net in for $118 and leave it at that or you can add the 2020 $130 ($22)/$160 ($9.25) bull call spread at $12.75 to net 0.75 on the $30 spread with $29.25 (3,900%) upside potential if IBM gains 10% in two years and your worst case is owning IBM at net $130.75.

Miners/Baron – I think gold and silver still have a good run in them but it's taking forever for inflation to kick in.  I would always go ABX first, as long as they are in the teens.  WPM is very cheap down here too.

 

WSM/Baron – That's an old favorite of ours.  I have been slow to get back in, even though they are back where we entered (and out as they got to $80) since I really don't like Pottery Barn but I do still like the company, making a barely growing $300M with a $4.3Bn market cap at $50.50, what's not to love? 

Anyway, we don't pay retail for the stock so we can add it back to the LTP:

  • Sell 10 WSM


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Zero Hedge

Why Is The DOJ Downplaying Reports Of Proof Linking Obama And Clinton To Russian Corruption

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following the release of the identity of the FBI informant, Justice Department officials in recent days said that informant William Campbell’s prior work won’t shed much light on the U.S. government’s controversial decision in 2010 to approve Russia’s purchase of the Uranium One mining company and its substantial U.S. assets.

...



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Phil's Favorites

COP 23: three ways cities are leading the fight against climate change

 

COP 23: three ways cities are leading the fight against climate change

Courtesy of Barbara NormanUniversity of Warwick

Mettus / Shutterstock.com

The global population is predicted to rise to 10 billion by 2050, and the majority of those people will live in cities. Given that cities ...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Tops $8,200, Only 39% Of Survey Respondents Say It's A Bubble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having first surged above $8000 overnight amid Zimbabwe's chaos, it appears uncertainty in the core of Europe has driven further demand for cryptocurrencu protection, sending Bitcoin to a new record high of $8247 - up 50% from the 'Bitcoin Cash' crash weekend lows.

...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For November 20, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Bitauto Hldg Ltd (ADR) (NYSE: BITA) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $335.93 million.
  • Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ: SBLK) is estimated to report a quarterly loss at $0.04 per share on revenue of $66.32 million.
  • Northern Tech...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 19, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Monday, Tuesday, and Friday saw the now usual “no volatility” days – while bears finally saw some action on Wednesday, bulls came right back Thursday with even bigger gains.  So while we have been cautious on the market for 3 weeks now all that has meant is consolidation in the market (granted the Russell 2000 has taken some hits).  For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.3% while the NASDAQ gained 0.5%. Economic news was light (we cover retail sales below), and earnings are coming to their tail end so we are in a bit of a news vacuum as negotiations about the tax reform bills will take the reigns.

Retail sales slowed in October, rising...



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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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