View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Didn't want to scare anyone but did want to slap you complacent people in the face as we're at a very dangerous point in the markets – hitting our inflection points in the high end of our range right when we get earnings and clearly, from the look of the VIX – not enough people are hedging their portfolios.  Please take a good look at the Income Portfolio's adjusted TZA play as well as the new SQQQ trade – to cover us into AAPL earnings – just in case.  

    While hope is not a valid investing strategy, I do hope we hold up here and we're looking to stay above 3 of our 5 new, aggressive targets but, in truth, we don't want to lose any:

    • Dow 13,600 (Must Hold)
    • S&P 1,480 (7.5%)
    • Nasdaq 3,100 (2.5%)
    • NYSE 8,600 (7.5%) 
    • Russell 880 (10%)

    Keep in mind the tug-boat model, the Dow is still dragging us but the Nasdaq has fallen from the front to the back of the pack so that means less pull on the Dow now – just when we need more reason for it to go higher.  Since we are close to the upper end of our ranges – those 2.5% lines start to matter more as it's harder for each index to slog through that upper resistance around 10% than it is for them to jump up and down around the Must Hold lines.  

    QQQ WEEKLY We need the S&P and NYSE to confirm those 10% lines but that's probably not going to happen until and unless the Nasdaq pops and the Nasdaq doesn't pop unless AAPL pops and that brings us full circle back to earnings tomorrow night and there's nothing we can really do but watch and wait – although GOOG will be a good preview this evening.  

    I wish I had a better crystal ball than that but it really is all up to AAPL and, as you can see from the chart – it would be so easy to NOT break higher and form a technical top and roll over the indexes – just another failed attempt at new highs.  Breaking up is, indeed, hard to do…

    The Dollar is floating at $80, the Euro is at $1.33 with everyone at Davos this week.  The Pound is not confirming a Euro move up, falling to $1.585 (should be within 0.03 of the Euro) and the Yen failed at 90 and is now 88.85 after testing (stronger) 88.5 this morning.

    Oil bottomed out at $95.50 but back to $96.25 now that the NYMEX pump crew is back from their break.  Gold is $1,689, silver $32, copper $3.68, Nat gas fell back to $3.58 and $3.50 to $4 is still the right range for them this winter.  Gasoline went from $2.78 on Friday (and this morning, for that matter) to $2.835 and is now just under $2.83 – they don't need a reason – same pumping at the same NYMEX with no inventories until Thursday this week.  

    We SEEM to have a debt ceiling extension (still needs official vote) and China and Japan SEEM to be heading to war over those silly islands but, otherwise, it's business as usual and, if anything, the news is on the upswing, which really puts the pressure squarely on the shoulders of our 88 reporting S&P companies this week to make or break us and, of those, you can probably add the market caps of 80 of them together and not equal AAPL in size or in impact.  So we're WAITING

    Tuesday's economic calendar:

    8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

    10:00 Existing Home Sales

    10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.

    At the open: Dow -0.06% to 13642. S&P -0.07% to 1485. Nasdaq +0.07% to 3137.

    Treasurys: 30-year +0.05%. 10-yr +0.05%. 5-yr 0%.

    Commodities: Crude +0.1% to $96.14. Gold +0.07% to $1688.15.

    Currencies: Euro +0.01% vs. dollar. Yen -0.83%. Pound -0.2%.

    Market Preview: Stock futures tilt higher after being flat earlier as investors return from the long weekend, with the S&P benchmark +0.3%. Factors that could be boosting sentiment include GOP moves to extend the debt ceiling and surprisingly strong optimism among German investors. RIM jumps 6.4% on news it mayeventually sell its hardware production and license its software. Following earnings, Verizon is +0.8%, DuPont is +1.1% and J&J is-0.7%Calendar: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg., major tech earnings

    3:14 AM Asian are mostly lower, with Japanese stocks falling as the yen rises after the BOJ announced well-telegraphed further easing measures but said it will wait until next year to begin open-ended asset purchases. "The big question now is will the combined fiscal and monetary stimulus work?" asks investment strategist Stephen Corry. "The yen does look oversold and the Nikkei looks overbought." Japan -0.3%, Hong Kong +0.2%, China -0.6%, India -0.1%. 

    In addition to buy the rumor, sell the news action in the yen, Japanese shares sell off after the expected BOJ decision to up its inflation target to 2%. If getting busy ending deflation is of such import, the decision to wait until 2014 to being open-ended QE is a curious one. The Nikkei -0.4%, bringing its 2-day slide to about 2%.

    4:33 AM European shares are lower as investors absorb the BOJ's announcements of further easing and ahead of some big U.S. corporate results later, including IBM and Google. EU Stoxx 50 -0.8%, London -0.4%, Paris -0.7%, Frankfurt -1.2%, Milan -0.7%, Madrid-0.7%

    5:36 AM European shares pare their losses and even start to turn positive in some cases following a way better-than-expected ZEW survey of German investor confidence. EU Stoxx 50 -0.2%, London flat, Paris -0.2%, Frankfurt -0.5%, Milan +0.4%, Madrid -0.3%.

    House Republicans will attempt to pass a measure tomorrow that would extend the debt ceiling until May 19 by allowing the government to borrow what it needs to meet its obligations rather than by specifying a dollar amount for the limit. The Treasury would also be allowed to top up its emergency borrowing capacity, effectively pushing the debt deadline into the summer.

    The number of unemployed worldwide is forecast to rise by 5.1M this year to over 202M, the UN's International Labour Organization says in its annual report. It's worth pointing out that the ILO has cut its jobless figures down each year, although that's because of an increase in the number of people leaving the labor market. Since before the financial crisis in 2007, the total "jobs gap" is 67M.

    Dec. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +0.02 vs. consensus of +0.28; +0.10 prior. The index's 3-month moving average increased to -0.11%, from a level of -0.13% in Nov. More on Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Production and Employment contributed +0.12 and +0.09 to index respectively. Personal consumption and housing impacted index by -0.17. The three-month moving average print at -0.13 is tenth consecutive reading below zero suggesting economic activity below its historical trend. The diffusion index increased to -0.05 from -0.12 in Nov.

    With S&P 500 companies retiring 8B shares through buybacks in the 18 months to October 2012, EPS figures are likely to get a surprisingly strong boost. It would be surprising because, as Robert Baird's Brian Rauscher says, analysts don't often factor in stock repurchases when making their forecasts.

    The NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment rises to 84.67 as of Jan. 16, up from 83.27 previously. Thanks to a big dip in the year's first week, the index remains below the "off the charts" bullish level of 88.1 hit just after Christmas.

    Investors are the most bullish they've been in the 3.5 year history of the Bloomberg Global Poll, with 53% picking equities to offer the best returns over the coming year, a 17-point jump from the November survey. Enthusiasm over Europe is a key, with just 45% believing the economy there deteriorating, down from 70% two months ago.

    Germany's ZEW index of investor economic sentiment rises to its highest since May 2010, jumping to 31.5 in January from 6.9 in December and coming in way above consensus of 12. Economic perspectives have improved on the 6 month horizon and the upbeat sentiment could lead to more companies investing, although the situation with Germany's trading partners is still considered to be weak. (PR)

    "Huuuuuge demand for Spain's new 10-year bond – order book of over €17B for the expected €3-4B deal," tweets Reuters' Jamie McGeever. Earlier, Spain sold more than €2.8B of 3-6 month bills, above its target of €2.5B, with yields falling also.

    Canadian retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.2% in November vs. a forecast of flat. In volume terms – which feeds into GDP calculations – sales rose 0.8%. Showing a small loss in early trade, the loonie pops back to flat

    China's automobile exports topped the one million vehicle mark for the first time in 2012 as total units delivered increased almost 30% for the year. Slowing demand in China has more domestic automakers looking to sell abroad and partner with western companies such as Volvo (VOLVY.PK) and General Motors.

    The GE of Europe:  Siemens' (SI) FQ1 net profit from continuing operations was reportedly little changed at €1.3B, above consensus of €1.14B, while revenue was also flat at €17.9B and missed forecasts of €18.1B. Earnings were hurt by a triple-digit million euro hit following delays in the delivery of high-speed trains to Deutsche Bahn, and by Siemens' exit from its solar business. New orders were above sales. Shares-1.6% premarket.

    Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Q4 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $4.51B beats by $0.03B. (PR)  More on Freeport McMoRan's (FCXQ4 results: Consolidated sales for full-year 2012 totaled 3.65B lbs. of copper, 1M oz. of gold, 83M lbs. of molybdenum, vs. 3.7B lbs. of copper, 1.4M oz. of gold, 79M lbs. of molybdenum for 2011. Estimates 2013 sales of 4.3B lbs. of copper, 1.4M oz. of gold, 90M lbs. of molybdenum. FCX+1.5% premarket.

    More on Brinker's International (EAT) FQ2: Comparable restaurants sales rose moderately by 1% at Chili's and 0.6% at Maggiano's with higher prices offsetting a company-wide 1.9% slip in traffic. International sales were up 2.7% during the period. (PR)

    PetMed Express (PETS): FQ3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $49.6M (-1.8% Y/Y) misses by $0.37M. Shares+2.2% premarket. (PR)

    More on Verizon (VZ): Higher pension costs and the impact of Superstorm Sandy drove the company's quarterly loss to more than double last year's mark. Pension liabilities shaved off $1.55 a share and the widespread damage from the storm cut another $0.07. Verizon added a net 567K FiOS digital connections during the period, 31% less than the number added during the same period a year ago. VZ -2.0% premarket. (PR)

    RIM (RIMM) shares +7.1% premarket after hitting a 13-month high in Canada yesterday following a German newspaper interview with CEO Thorsten Heins in which said the company could sell its hardware production or license its software to rivals.

    Are you freakin' kidding me?  AAPL $500???  Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 – that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL)+0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales)

    Three breakfast reads:

    1) What Nobody Tells You About Goldman Sachs 

    2) UnitedHealth And WellPoint Are Well-Positioned For Obamacare 

    3) Applied Micro: Recent Developments Fuel Heavy Skepticism



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Zero Hedge

FBI Uses Surveillance "Air Force" To Monitor US Citizens, AP Finds

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In the wake of the violent protests, looting, and riots that shook Baltimore to its core and left parts of the city smoldering in late April, Benjamin Shayne — who had just sat down in his backyard to enjoy a radio broadcast of an Orioles game — inadvertently uncovered a secret FBI aerial surveillance program when he noticed a small plane circling overhead and asked Twitter if anyone could explain the aircraft’s low, circular flight pattern. As it turned out, one of Shayne’s followers had some answers:

@scanbaltimore It's registered to NG Research: http://t.co/mCWpUzvndp
F...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

In a low key move, the Russell 2000 broke from its channel in a relative swing in favour of Small Caps and away from Tech and Large Caps. This is important development for bulls looking for a larger push outside of 2015 consolidations for range bound S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The S&P remains caught sub-2,120. Today's attempt to break this level was again rebuffed, but action in the Russell 2000 offers another opportunity for bulls to drive a breakout tomorrow. The Nasdaq finished pegged at 5,098 with...

more from Chart School

Market Shadows

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stocks are chill as bonds freak out. Can this go on? (Yahoo Finance)

Government bonds and currencies are the things most sensitive to such concerns about the immediate and future cost of loans and trading capital. The jumpiness in bonds and currencies is also probably made more extreme by reduced liquidity in those markets, a result of stricter bank capital rules and the heavy presence of central banks as buyers of fixed-income paper.

The puzzle now - as yet another Greek-bailout flashpoint approaches and a US employment report helps determine the Fed’s plans – is whether stocks can continue to simply absorb the other asset market’s emotional moves without getting getting caught up in them.

...

more from Paul

Phil's Favorites

About that Trade Deficit "Improvement"

Courtesy of Mish.

John Hussman just pinged me with this Trade Deficit Tweet in response to my post Second Quarter GDP Estimate Gets Lift from Reduced Imports.

@MishGEA ... except that current account "improvement" typically matches weak gross domestic investment. (Hey Mish!)



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
...



more from Ilene

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond players- Beware of what happens here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

It is easy to find talk these days about the Fed moving interest rates higher. Humbly I don’t know what Janet will do next. Could it be more important what billions of free thinking people do with bond positions they have at the cross roads below?

From a price perspective, the yield on the 10-year note looks to be at a pretty important price point right now in the chart below!

CLICK  ON CHART TO ENLARGE 

The yield on the 10-year note has remained inside of a falling channel the past two years. In February yield hit the bottom of a falling channel and the rally sinc...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Bank of America Downgrades American Airlines Group To Neutral

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BofA Asks: What Can Move Airline Stocks Higher? Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Losers Opportunities Ahead For American Airlines (Seeking Alpha)

Analysts at Bank of America downgraded American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) from Buy to Neutral.

The price target for American Airlines Group has been lowered from $64.00 t...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Pharmboy

Can Protalix BioTherapeutics Deliver?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Here's an update on a stock that Pharmboy is well familiar with, PLX. Pharmboy provided his thoughts for this article which was published by Lowenthal Capital Partners, and which I contributed to them. One reader asked the question: While PLX has sufficient cash for another year's operation, it needs to conserve resources and will likely need to raise money in the future. Would you care to venture a guess as to when you believe they will raise money (and what type vehicle they will use)?

Pharmboy's response: They will sell stock, and my guess is in 4Q15. I agree--selling stock is probably on the horizon sooner rather than later. Let's hope they get the stock moving higher before then. ~ Ilene 

...

more from Pharmboy

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 1st, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



more from Sabrient

Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>