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  1. Phil

    QQQ WEEKLY Good morning!  

    Holding steady from yesterday's excitement so far.  

    Dollar at 79.85 so no major effect there with the Euro at $1.3328, the Pound at $1.586 and 88.31 Yen to the Buck.  

    Oil is $96.69 (first official day of new contract), gold $1,691, silver $32.18, copper $3.70 ($3.75 is serious improvement), nat gas $3.57 and gasoline $2.836.  

    There's no major news to distract us from earnings and both GOOG and IBM came in impressively, so we're in pretty good shape as we wait for AAPL – and even that stock is up to $507 this morning.  

    Earningspalooza today and they come hot and heavy after this one:

    Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open: ABBVABT,APDATIBHICHKPCOHDGXFNFGGDLCCMCD

    MSINVSPXRESSAPSTJTELTXTUTXWLP

    Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
    10:00 FHFA House Price Index

    Notable earnings after Wednesday’s close: AAPLALTR,AMGNBKWCBSTCCIFBCFFIVHXLINVNJEC

    LOGILRCX,LSIMIPSMLNXNENFLXPLCMSWFTSNDKSYKSYMC,TERURIVARWDC

    IBM WEEKLY We have our IBM earnings play in the $25,000 Portfolio to keep an eye on, that one was from yesterday morning:

    I'd say bad new is priced in from last time and certainly outlook is better now than October and you can buy 5 IBM July $190/200 bull call spreads for $5.25 ($2,625) and sell 3 March $200 calls for $2.60 ($780) and 3 July $180 puts for $4.70 ($1,410) for net $435 for the $2,500 worth of long spreads if all goes well.  Let's put that in the $25KP.  

    IBM is right on target at $203.50 and, of course, we needed $200 to get the full $2,500 on our spread and the puts seem safe so now it's just a matter of dealing with the short calls – and we don't need to make any quick decisions but we'll see what rolls there are at the open.  

    Our other earnings play for this morning was GOOG and that one was from the 17th:

    GOOG;/Itrade – Big deal on GOOG is going to be mobile search.  Doubt there is much growth in desktops. Earnings are on the 22nd (next Tuesday) and don't forget Monday is a holiday so I kind of like the June $665/700 bull call spread at $21, selling the next week $725 calls for $15.50 for net $5.50 and the plan would be to roll those Tuesday (hopefully picking up some premium crush over the long weekend) and sell Feb calls to cover, hopefully for another $5 to make a net free spread.  If GOOG has good earnings, we can deal with it by rolling and if GOOG has bad earnings, the caller goes worthless and it's a free(ish) spread and we can salvage what's left or sell puts and roll down if we think it bounces back.  Let's do 3 of these in the $25KPA as it will be a good thing to follow along.   

    Savi asked in Member Chat yesterday if we should buy back the short calls and my response at the time was:

    GOOG/$25KPA, Savi – I had decided not to but may change my mind.  They are still $9 and, if we buy them back, we raise the net on our $35 bullish spread to $28 AND leave it unprotected with GOOG not even at the top of the spread.  If we leave the short $725s in place, we have a net on our $35 spread of $6 with $29 of upside before we have to pay back the weekly $725 callers and, of course, we have 6 months to roll them AND we can easily buy more longs and roll the callers to 2x and our break-even is $754 and StJ says GOOG only averages 6.7%, which is $746 so we have many, many ways to win by leaving the spread as is whereas, if we pull the short calls – we only have one way to win – and we win a lot less

    GOOG WEEKLY GOOG is right about $735 pre-market so perfect if they hold there or just a bit lower.  We paid a net of $1,650 and max pay-off is $10,500 and that bull call spread looks safe enough, and we didn't even sell puts, so it's all about how well we roll the short puts, which expire on Friday and we've got 5 more months to deal with them – we can even turn a bigger profit on this trade selling more calls but that's just greedy when we're on track to make 536% on cash already!  

    As I said in yesterday's morning Alert, it's Apple $555 or bust on earnings later and that's very true in our AAPL-bullish $25KPA and AAPL Money Portfolios – we'll press our SQQQ hedges this morning but an insurance pay-off would be a bitter pill to swallow if AAPL misses!  

    Of course, AAPL only has to hold $500 to make our Income Portfolio happy but that sure won't get the S&P over that 1,500 mark so we REALLY need AAPL to pull it out this evening for the good of the markets. 

    Without that catalyst, I don't see how we're going to avoid a pullback – so let's be careful.  Last night's action gave us a great buffer and eliminated part of the need to hedge heavily against AAPL earnings tonight but don't make any plans for tomorrow morning – it's very likely to be wild – either way:  



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Phil's Favorites

Exit Stage 3 Delayed; Another Technocrat; Bank Bailout Coming; What About Beppe Grillo?

Courtesy of Mish.

Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, asked Renzi to stay on as prime minister. Renzi agreed to do so until a budget is in place, likely later this week.

The vast majority of the population wants an immediate election, but Mattarella wants another technocrat.  Voter be damned, Italy’s 4th consecutive technocrat prime minister is coming up. I am available, and waiting a call.

The first mission of the new technocrat will be to pass legislation that will make it much harder for Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S) to get into power. Voters be damned again.

Exit Stage 3 Delayed

Please consider Renz...



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'Footloose' Comes To Brussels - Europe Unleashes "Dance Tax"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"Everybody cut loose".. but be prepared to pay for it in Europe. As Martin Armstrong notes, if you dance in a bar in Brussels, you must pay a tax!

The patrons of Bonnefooi, a cafe in the center of Brussels, last week received a visit from a City inspector.

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News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dow Sets Record as Bank Stocks Rally, Investors Shrug Off Italy (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks climbed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record as a rally in financial and technology shares reversed a dip in early trading after Italian voters rejected a constitutional referendum.

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Holidays gift ideas for every category of male

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over but with the Holiday season coming up and my wife always says it is pretty difficult to shop for men, so we thought we would make a guide. The good news is there is still time and (sometimes a need) to get a gift for your husband (shout out to our very loyal and dedicated for our 6 female readers), or yourself, son, father etc. Not every man wants the same type of gift – some like athletic items, home improvement stuff – not only do we have a list but we have a short video for those who prefer that format. See our Holidays gift ideas list be category below followed by the video. Note each item on the list can be found on ...



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Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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Once In A Lifetime?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Summary
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
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  • Referendum Result; Market Reaction
  • Political Reaction; Opposition Party Reaction
Last Time Out
Since the end of World War II, 71 years have passed during which, the "perfect" balance has resulted in 63 different Italian governments, or more often than most change shoes.  Instead of being a real second legislative check, that balance is seemingly a weapon of mass distraction and instrument of political vetoes whi...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Inflation indicator testing multi-year breakout cluster!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Some tools are used to measure inflation or lack of. Some look at the price of Crude Oil, Doc Copper or the Commodities Index (CRB) to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. Since 2011, most commodities have created a series of lower highs and lower lows and for many, it has been easier to make the case of deflation than inflation, is in play.

Below looks at another tool, that is often used to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. This tool we are referring too is the TIPS/TLT ratio-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...



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Weekly Market Recap Dec 4, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market needed a pause after the frenetic post election rally, and it finally arrived this week.  The pullback was mild as bulls would like.  This week’s “fear of the week” was Italy’s political referendum which happened today… and was rejected.

Italian voters were asked in a referendum to approve changes to the country’s constitution, which have been called the most sweeping since the end of World War II. The proposed reforms would cut the Senate’s size by two-thirds and reduce powers held by the country’s 20 regional governments. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes the changes will aid efficiency in parliament.

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Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

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The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

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Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

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Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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