View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    QQQ WEEKLY Good morning!  

    Holding steady from yesterday's excitement so far.  

    Dollar at 79.85 so no major effect there with the Euro at $1.3328, the Pound at $1.586 and 88.31 Yen to the Buck.  

    Oil is $96.69 (first official day of new contract), gold $1,691, silver $32.18, copper $3.70 ($3.75 is serious improvement), nat gas $3.57 and gasoline $2.836.  

    There's no major news to distract us from earnings and both GOOG and IBM came in impressively, so we're in pretty good shape as we wait for AAPL – and even that stock is up to $507 this morning.  

    Earningspalooza today and they come hot and heavy after this one:

    Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open: ABBVABT,APDATIBHICHKPCOHDGXFNFGGDLCCMCD

    MSINVSPXRESSAPSTJTELTXTUTXWLP

    Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
    10:00 FHFA House Price Index

    Notable earnings after Wednesday’s close: AAPLALTR,AMGNBKWCBSTCCIFBCFFIVHXLINVNJEC

    LOGILRCX,LSIMIPSMLNXNENFLXPLCMSWFTSNDKSYKSYMC,TERURIVARWDC

    IBM WEEKLY We have our IBM earnings play in the $25,000 Portfolio to keep an eye on, that one was from yesterday morning:

    I'd say bad new is priced in from last time and certainly outlook is better now than October and you can buy 5 IBM July $190/200 bull call spreads for $5.25 ($2,625) and sell 3 March $200 calls for $2.60 ($780) and 3 July $180 puts for $4.70 ($1,410) for net $435 for the $2,500 worth of long spreads if all goes well.  Let's put that in the $25KP.  

    IBM is right on target at $203.50 and, of course, we needed $200 to get the full $2,500 on our spread and the puts seem safe so now it's just a matter of dealing with the short calls – and we don't need to make any quick decisions but we'll see what rolls there are at the open.  

    Our other earnings play for this morning was GOOG and that one was from the 17th:

    GOOG;/Itrade – Big deal on GOOG is going to be mobile search.  Doubt there is much growth in desktops. Earnings are on the 22nd (next Tuesday) and don't forget Monday is a holiday so I kind of like the June $665/700 bull call spread at $21, selling the next week $725 calls for $15.50 for net $5.50 and the plan would be to roll those Tuesday (hopefully picking up some premium crush over the long weekend) and sell Feb calls to cover, hopefully for another $5 to make a net free spread.  If GOOG has good earnings, we can deal with it by rolling and if GOOG has bad earnings, the caller goes worthless and it's a free(ish) spread and we can salvage what's left or sell puts and roll down if we think it bounces back.  Let's do 3 of these in the $25KPA as it will be a good thing to follow along.   

    Savi asked in Member Chat yesterday if we should buy back the short calls and my response at the time was:

    GOOG/$25KPA, Savi – I had decided not to but may change my mind.  They are still $9 and, if we buy them back, we raise the net on our $35 bullish spread to $28 AND leave it unprotected with GOOG not even at the top of the spread.  If we leave the short $725s in place, we have a net on our $35 spread of $6 with $29 of upside before we have to pay back the weekly $725 callers and, of course, we have 6 months to roll them AND we can easily buy more longs and roll the callers to 2x and our break-even is $754 and StJ says GOOG only averages 6.7%, which is $746 so we have many, many ways to win by leaving the spread as is whereas, if we pull the short calls – we only have one way to win – and we win a lot less

    GOOG WEEKLY GOOG is right about $735 pre-market so perfect if they hold there or just a bit lower.  We paid a net of $1,650 and max pay-off is $10,500 and that bull call spread looks safe enough, and we didn't even sell puts, so it's all about how well we roll the short puts, which expire on Friday and we've got 5 more months to deal with them – we can even turn a bigger profit on this trade selling more calls but that's just greedy when we're on track to make 536% on cash already!  

    As I said in yesterday's morning Alert, it's Apple $555 or bust on earnings later and that's very true in our AAPL-bullish $25KPA and AAPL Money Portfolios – we'll press our SQQQ hedges this morning but an insurance pay-off would be a bitter pill to swallow if AAPL misses!  

    Of course, AAPL only has to hold $500 to make our Income Portfolio happy but that sure won't get the S&P over that 1,500 mark so we REALLY need AAPL to pull it out this evening for the good of the markets. 

    Without that catalyst, I don't see how we're going to avoid a pullback – so let's be careful.  Last night's action gave us a great buffer and eliminated part of the need to hedge heavily against AAPL earnings tonight but don't make any plans for tomorrow morning – it's very likely to be wild – either way:  



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

China Starts Witch Hunt for Those Obstructing Government Efforts to Prop Up Stocks

Courtesy of Mish.

In China, a massive witch hunt is underway.

Beijing regulators now seek individuals who  have destabilized the markets and spread rumors.

Official want someone to blame after their Large-Scale Share Purchases failed to halt a huge stock market slide.
China’s government has decided to abandon attempts to boost the stock market through large-scale share purchases, and will instead intensify efforts to find and punish those suspected of “destabilising the market”, according to senior officials.

For two months, a “national team” of state-owned investment funds and institutions has collectively spent about $200bn trying to prop up a market that is still down 37 per cent since its...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

It Gets Even Uglier In Canada

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.wolfstreet.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

The Province of Alberta, the epicenter of the Canadian oil bust, may be sliding into something much worse than a plain-vanilla recession. And it’s not exactly perking up the rest of Canada.

Layoffs are already cascading through the oil patch, as companies are retrenching and adjusting to the new reality. New vehicle sales are plummeting. And home sales are ...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Rally Stalls Out

Courtesy of Declan.

After all the volatility during the week, Friday's action was a little reprieve. Markets sit a point where shorts will fancy their chances, although further upside should not be viewed as surprising given the level of volatility markets experienced last week. If there is an indication bears are going to come back with a vengeance, it's that buying volume has been well down on prior selling.

The Nasdaq finished on former trading range support, turned resistance. Watch for a short squeeze from this level, up to the 200-day MA.


The Nasdaq 100 may have given an indication of what to expect on Monday as it started to edge more into t...

more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

After all that, the stock market finished the week higher (Business Insider)

The stock market had a wild ride this week. And it ultimately ended up even better than it started. 

This week we saw a 1,000 point drop in the Dow in minutes, another drop of around 600 points in an hour of trading, and another day that saw one of the largest single-day point gains for the Dow in history.

Worried about your investments? Here’s the best advice (Market Watch)

The market is on a ...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Dangerous Place for a kiss of resistance, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Anyone noticed its been a wild week? Has anything been proven with all the volatility the past 5-days?

What happens at (1) below, could tell us a good deal about what type of damage did or didn’t take place this week!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The large decline on Monday cause the S&P 500 to break support of this rising channel.

The mid-week rally pushed the S&P higher and as of this morning it is kissing the underside of old support as resistance now, near the 50% retracement level of the large decline over the past few weeks.

Why could th...



more from Kimble C.S.

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



more from ValueWalk

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



more from Pharmboy

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>