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  1. Phil

    QQQ WEEKLY Good morning!  

    Holding steady from yesterday's excitement so far.  

    Dollar at 79.85 so no major effect there with the Euro at $1.3328, the Pound at $1.586 and 88.31 Yen to the Buck.  

    Oil is $96.69 (first official day of new contract), gold $1,691, silver $32.18, copper $3.70 ($3.75 is serious improvement), nat gas $3.57 and gasoline $2.836.  

    There's no major news to distract us from earnings and both GOOG and IBM came in impressively, so we're in pretty good shape as we wait for AAPL – and even that stock is up to $507 this morning.  

    Earningspalooza today and they come hot and heavy after this one:

    Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open: ABBVABT,APDATIBHICHKPCOHDGXFNFGGDLCCMCD

    MSINVSPXRESSAPSTJTELTXTUTXWLP

    Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
    10:00 FHFA House Price Index

    Notable earnings after Wednesday’s close: AAPLALTR,AMGNBKWCBSTCCIFBCFFIVHXLINVNJEC

    LOGILRCX,LSIMIPSMLNXNENFLXPLCMSWFTSNDKSYKSYMC,TERURIVARWDC

    IBM WEEKLY We have our IBM earnings play in the $25,000 Portfolio to keep an eye on, that one was from yesterday morning:

    I'd say bad new is priced in from last time and certainly outlook is better now than October and you can buy 5 IBM July $190/200 bull call spreads for $5.25 ($2,625) and sell 3 March $200 calls for $2.60 ($780) and 3 July $180 puts for $4.70 ($1,410) for net $435 for the $2,500 worth of long spreads if all goes well.  Let's put that in the $25KP.  

    IBM is right on target at $203.50 and, of course, we needed $200 to get the full $2,500 on our spread and the puts seem safe so now it's just a matter of dealing with the short calls – and we don't need to make any quick decisions but we'll see what rolls there are at the open.  

    Our other earnings play for this morning was GOOG and that one was from the 17th:

    GOOG;/Itrade – Big deal on GOOG is going to be mobile search.  Doubt there is much growth in desktops. Earnings are on the 22nd (next Tuesday) and don't forget Monday is a holiday so I kind of like the June $665/700 bull call spread at $21, selling the next week $725 calls for $15.50 for net $5.50 and the plan would be to roll those Tuesday (hopefully picking up some premium crush over the long weekend) and sell Feb calls to cover, hopefully for another $5 to make a net free spread.  If GOOG has good earnings, we can deal with it by rolling and if GOOG has bad earnings, the caller goes worthless and it's a free(ish) spread and we can salvage what's left or sell puts and roll down if we think it bounces back.  Let's do 3 of these in the $25KPA as it will be a good thing to follow along.   

    Savi asked in Member Chat yesterday if we should buy back the short calls and my response at the time was:

    GOOG/$25KPA, Savi – I had decided not to but may change my mind.  They are still $9 and, if we buy them back, we raise the net on our $35 bullish spread to $28 AND leave it unprotected with GOOG not even at the top of the spread.  If we leave the short $725s in place, we have a net on our $35 spread of $6 with $29 of upside before we have to pay back the weekly $725 callers and, of course, we have 6 months to roll them AND we can easily buy more longs and roll the callers to 2x and our break-even is $754 and StJ says GOOG only averages 6.7%, which is $746 so we have many, many ways to win by leaving the spread as is whereas, if we pull the short calls – we only have one way to win – and we win a lot less

    GOOG WEEKLY GOOG is right about $735 pre-market so perfect if they hold there or just a bit lower.  We paid a net of $1,650 and max pay-off is $10,500 and that bull call spread looks safe enough, and we didn't even sell puts, so it's all about how well we roll the short puts, which expire on Friday and we've got 5 more months to deal with them – we can even turn a bigger profit on this trade selling more calls but that's just greedy when we're on track to make 536% on cash already!  

    As I said in yesterday's morning Alert, it's Apple $555 or bust on earnings later and that's very true in our AAPL-bullish $25KPA and AAPL Money Portfolios – we'll press our SQQQ hedges this morning but an insurance pay-off would be a bitter pill to swallow if AAPL misses!  

    Of course, AAPL only has to hold $500 to make our Income Portfolio happy but that sure won't get the S&P over that 1,500 mark so we REALLY need AAPL to pull it out this evening for the good of the markets. 

    Without that catalyst, I don't see how we're going to avoid a pullback – so let's be careful.  Last night's action gave us a great buffer and eliminated part of the need to hedge heavily against AAPL earnings tonight but don't make any plans for tomorrow morning – it's very likely to be wild – either way:  



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

China Moves To Dominate Gold Market With Physical Exchange

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by GoldCore

China Moves To Dominate Gold Market With Physical Exchange

China is slowly moving to dominate the global gold market and it is important to join the dots regarding a few key recent developments in China relating to gold.

When the International Board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was launched last Thursday September 18 during an evening trading session, it was notable that the first transactions were put through by a d...



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Phil's Favorites

Home Healthcare Cuts Threaten 500,000 Jobs and Put Female-Owned Businesses at Risk

Home Healthcare Cuts Threaten 500,000 Jobs and Put Female-Owned Businesses at Risk

By Dennis Miller

That title wouldn’t make for much of a campaign slogan, and yet, it’s the natural outcome of one particular politician’s promise. As the editor of a retirement-focused newsletter, most of the notes I receive about the Affordable Health Care Act, or Obamacare, are first-person accounts of how a reader’s change in coverage or cost is affecting his finances. These (mostly sad) stories prompted several discussions with Andy Mangione, vice president of government relations of the Association of Mature American Citizens (AMAC). Andy serves as the lead legislative and government contact for AMAC in Washington, DC. He’s also responsible for national grassroots outreach and developing strategic ...



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Chart School

Gasoline Volume Sales, Demographics and our Changing Culture

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on volume sales is over two months old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-July, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US economy. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series.

Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, I've added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 8.8% below the all-time high set in August 2005, a new interim low.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls leverage hopeful news to launch a tepid breakout attempt

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks were able to leverage some optimistic news and dovish words from the Fed to take another stab at an upside breakout attempt last week. Although readers have sometimes accused me of being a permabull, I am really a realist, and the reality is that the slogans like “The trend is your friend” and “Don’t fight the Fed” are truisms. And they have worked. Nevertheless, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback, especially given the weak technical condition of small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Enjoy! Please sign in using your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

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Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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Promotions

Last Chance! See The 'Google-Like' Trading Algorithm 'Live' TODAY

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In fact, it has an 82% win rate…

And had you only traded the conservative alerts recommended by the algorithm since inception, you would have experienced portfolio gains of more than 200%!

Register NOW and secure your virtual seat for one of Today’s LIVE presentations.

When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

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By James Black at International Man

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Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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