View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    Good morning!  

    AAPL $476 at the moment after bottoming at $457 overnight.  

    Nas futures right at 2,723 and still a good long over the 2,725 line.  

    Asia was mixed with the Nikkei up 1.3%, Hong Kong flat, Shanghai down 0.8%, India down 0.25% and Singapore up 0.5%.

    Europe opened flat but picked up nicely and, other than the Nasdaq, our Futures are holding up well so our biggest fear – that AAPL's earnings may be the straw that breaks the rally's back – is unfounded (so far).  

    3:55 AM European stocks are mostly lower as Apple's lackluster earnings – well it's all relative – cast a global shadow. "Despite the firm close in the U.S. and better-than-expected (PMI) data from China, European traders appear to be on a more cautious footing," says trader Jonathan Sudaria. "The after-hours release of Apple earnings have not been interpreted well." EU Stoxx 50 -0.3%, London +0.1%, Paris -0.1%, Frankfurt -0.3%, Milan -0.4%, Madrid +0.05%.

    4:32 AM Eurozone shares reverse course and turn solidly higher following improvements in German and eurozone PMI data, with even shares in France in the green despite the country's situation stayingrather depressing. EU Stoxx 50 +0.2%, London +0.2%, Paris +0.4%, Frankfurt +0.1%, Milan +0.2%, Madrid +0.3%.

    Profits at $1 Trillion Meet Valuations as S&P 500 Rallies (Bloomberg)

    Calling off the Recession?  Flash eurozone manufacturing PMI climbs to a 10-month high of 47.5 from 46.1 in December; manufacturing output 48 vs 46; services 48.3 vs 47.8; composite output 48.2 vs 47.2. The data "suggest that the eurozone economic downturn has eased," says Markit. "Forward-looking indicators…suggest that the rate of decline will continue to slow in the coming months, and a return to growth looks to be on the cards" in H1. (PR) 

    Flash German Manufacturing PMI rises to an 11-month high of 48.8 in January from 46 in December; manufacturing output 50.4 vs 47.1; services hits 19-month peak of 55.3 vs 52; composite output 53.6 vs 50.3. "Germany's private sector has kicked back into gear in January, as output rose at a pace that would deliver a swift recovery in GDP from the ground lost during (Q1)," says Markit. (PR)

    France still sucks:  Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.9 in January from 44.6 in December; manufacturing output 40.8 vs 43.3; services crashes to 46-month low of 43.6 from 45.2; composite output also hits a 46-month trough of 42.7 vs 44.6. "Sickly performances from both the manufacturing and service sectors resulted in the steepest drop in overall output for almost four years, while the…(speed) of job losses gathered pace," says Markit. (PR)

    Spanish 10-year bond yields may be only just above 5%, but the crisis in the real economy continued unabated in Q4, with unemployment rising to a record 26.02% from 25.01% in Q3. The number of people out of work reached 6M, or a third of the eurozone's jobless citizens. It was even worse for those under 25 as youth unemployment hit 60%. - On the bright side – 1/3 of Europe's unemployed are in Spain so, if we ignore them – things for the rest of the continent are looking up

    The euro turns positive against the dollar following Germany's decent PMI data and is +0.1% at $1.3321. Earlier, it hit a session low of $1.3288

    Almost flat earnings and a disappointing forecast from Apple (AAPL) leave a few casualties in Japanese trading today: Softbank (SFTBY.PK) – a Japanese carrier of the iPhone – is down 0.9%, Sharp (SHCAY.PK) and Foster Electric – both of which make parts for the phone – dropped 1.5% and 1%, respectively.

    Japanese exports fell a more than expected 5.8% in December, outpacing expectations for a 4.7% dip, as shipments to China slipped again and even U.S.-bound exports shrank. Imports rose 1.9%, sending the trade deficit to ¥641.5B ($7.24B), which was also wider than economists forecast of ¥548.5B. Exports to China have declined recently over political tensions between the two nations, fell 15.8% in December, while those to the U.S. slipped 0.8%, the first decline in nearly 14 months. Exports to Western Europe fell 12.3%.

     “These are bad numbers for the economy,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. and a former BOJ official. “The positive impact of the yen’s decline on exports has yet to be seen, but it is already boosting import values.”

    China's January HSBC Flash PMI rises to 51.9 from December's final read of 51.5. It's the 5th consecutive rise for the index which now stands at its highest level in 2 years. "Despite still-tepid external demand," says HSBC, "the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery."

    China manufacturing capacity utilization in 2012 below 2008 level: UBSThe overcapacity problem in China created by booming economic growth in recent decades resulted in even lower utilization in the manufacturing sector in 2012 than during the global financial crisis in 2008.

    What Really Goes On In China.

    South Korea's Q4 GDP rises just 1.5% Y/Y, pulling growth for all of 2012 down to 2%, the weakest since 2009 and well below this summer's central bank forecast of 3%. The export-driven economy has been hit by the 1-2 punch of weak external demand and a strengthening won. The Kospi is down a fraction.

    More on Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 call: Tim Cook mentions over 2M Apple TVs were sold in the quarter, and asserts the TV is "an area of intense interest" (previous). The new iMac was also heavily supply-constrained during the quarter. The mix of current to prior-gen iPhone sales was similar to a year ago. CFO Peter Oppenheimer says new stock buybacks is something Apple continually assesses. This could be a good time for one. (live blog) (more on Apple) 

    Apple(AAPL) Sold More Than 2 Million Apple TVs Last Quarter, Tim Cook Dodges Question About Future TV Plans

    Boeing(BA) 787 to Stay Grounded as U.S. Can’t Explain FiresThe top two U.S. aviation regulators said they don’t know what led to battery flaws that prompted them to ground Boeing Co. (BA)’s 787, and defended their decision to not let the plane fly until the cause is found.

    And more oil:  Shale Oil Bonanza Reaches Australia With '$20 Trillion' Discovery. 

    Kashkari Resigns Amid 'Spotty' Fund Performance, Heads Back To Public Office.

    Is Contemporary Conservatism Just ‘Payola’? (Center for American Progress)

    The conservative movement is still an elaborate moneymaking venture (Salon)

    Dollar up and down but still around 80, oil $95.59, gold $1,681 with a lot of negative outlooks hitting them this morning, silver failed $32 ($31.975) so a good long over that line if the Dollar fails 80, copper down to $3.68 on China over-supply concerns (again).  Yes, it doesn't just magically go away…  Nat gas tested $3.50 and back to $3.58 but will suck for them when the cold snaps and gasoline refuses to lose at $2.85 but inventories today will be interesting.  Gasoline is a tempting but very dangerous short below the $2.85 line (/RB). 

    Notable earnings before Thursday’s open: ABCALK,ARGAVTBAXBMYBPOPCELGCYDOVEQTESIETN,FCS

    GWWJNSJVAKCGKEYLMTLUVMKCMMMMWW,NMMNOKORIPCPQSII

    RTNRYNSWKTZOOUALUNP,XRX

    Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: CPHDCRUS,EDEGHTETFCFLEXINFAJBHTJNPRKLACMSFT

    MXIM,QLGCRMBSRMDSBUXSCSSSXLSYNATTKRTPX,VRSN

    Thursday's economic calendar:

    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims

    9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

    10:00 Leading Indicators

    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories

    4:30 PM Money Supply

    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Zero Hedge

In 50 Years This Has Never Failed To Trigger A Bear Market

Courtesy of Jesse Felder of The Felder Report

It’s earnings season once again and it looks as if, as a group, corporate America still can’t find the end of its earnings decline since profits peaked over a year ago. What’s more analysts, renowned for their Pollyannish expectations, can’t seem to find it, either.

So I thought it might be interesting to look at what the stock market has done in the past during earnings recessions comparable to the current one. And it’s pretty eye-opening. Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market.

...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

US Government Entitlements - The Sixth Biggest Economy On Earth

Courtesy of David Stockman

From David Stockman's forthcoming book "Trumped! A Nation On The Brink... And How To Bring It Back"

Because the main street economy is failing, the nation’s entitlement rolls have exploded. About 110 million citizens now receive some form of means tested benefits. When social security is included, more than 160 million citizens get checks from Washington.

The total cost is now $3 trillion per year and rising rapidly. America’s entitlements sector, in fact, is the sixth biggest economy in the world.

Yet in a society that is rapidly aging to the tune of 10,000 baby b...



more from Ilene

Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Moderates Further

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities moderated further last week. Only three of the eight posted gains, down from six the previous week. T average gain of the eight indexes on our world watch shrank to 0.27%. The two Eurozone indexes were the top performers, the DAXK up 1.87% and the CAC up 1.34%. India's SENSEX was the third winner, up 0.89%. China's Shanghai was the biggest loser, down 1.11%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatilit...



more from Chart School

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Credit Suisse Is Building a New U.S. Bank Just for Billionaires (Fortune)

Credit Suisse, which exited its U.S. private wealth business last year, is building out a new investment banking group in the region to serve billionaires.

China Doubles Down On Building Bigger, Badder, Better Economy (Forbes)

Between state-owned banks with a record $14 billion in new bond offerings in the second quarter, to Beijing promising more infrastructure spending, one thing is certain — they are hell bent on building rocket ship trains and bridges. The market hopes ...



more from Paul

ValueWalk

NetSuite Inc Stock Soars On Oracle Corporation Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.

NetSuite – analysts react

Nomura

Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



more from M.T.M.

Digital Currencies

Judge Rules Bitcoin Isn't Money Because It "Can't be Hidden Under A Mattress"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org

In a landmark decision, a Florida judge dismissed charges of money laundering against a Bitcoin seller on Monday following expert testimony showing state law did not apply to the cryptocurrency.

Michell Espinoza was charged with three felony charges related to money laundering i...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds at important inflection point, should impact stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junk bonds have been quality at sending Risk On and Risk Off message to the broad stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK over the past decade.

JNK finds itself at an important price point below and what it does in the upcoming couple of weeks could become a big influence on the Risk On/Risk Off trade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

more from Kimble C.S.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



more from Biotech

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>