View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    Good morning!  

    AAPL $476 at the moment after bottoming at $457 overnight.  

    Nas futures right at 2,723 and still a good long over the 2,725 line.  

    Asia was mixed with the Nikkei up 1.3%, Hong Kong flat, Shanghai down 0.8%, India down 0.25% and Singapore up 0.5%.

    Europe opened flat but picked up nicely and, other than the Nasdaq, our Futures are holding up well so our biggest fear – that AAPL's earnings may be the straw that breaks the rally's back – is unfounded (so far).  

    3:55 AM European stocks are mostly lower as Apple's lackluster earnings – well it's all relative – cast a global shadow. "Despite the firm close in the U.S. and better-than-expected (PMI) data from China, European traders appear to be on a more cautious footing," says trader Jonathan Sudaria. "The after-hours release of Apple earnings have not been interpreted well." EU Stoxx 50 -0.3%, London +0.1%, Paris -0.1%, Frankfurt -0.3%, Milan -0.4%, Madrid +0.05%.

    4:32 AM Eurozone shares reverse course and turn solidly higher following improvements in German and eurozone PMI data, with even shares in France in the green despite the country's situation stayingrather depressing. EU Stoxx 50 +0.2%, London +0.2%, Paris +0.4%, Frankfurt +0.1%, Milan +0.2%, Madrid +0.3%.

    Profits at $1 Trillion Meet Valuations as S&P 500 Rallies (Bloomberg)

    Calling off the Recession?  Flash eurozone manufacturing PMI climbs to a 10-month high of 47.5 from 46.1 in December; manufacturing output 48 vs 46; services 48.3 vs 47.8; composite output 48.2 vs 47.2. The data "suggest that the eurozone economic downturn has eased," says Markit. "Forward-looking indicators…suggest that the rate of decline will continue to slow in the coming months, and a return to growth looks to be on the cards" in H1. (PR) 

    Flash German Manufacturing PMI rises to an 11-month high of 48.8 in January from 46 in December; manufacturing output 50.4 vs 47.1; services hits 19-month peak of 55.3 vs 52; composite output 53.6 vs 50.3. "Germany's private sector has kicked back into gear in January, as output rose at a pace that would deliver a swift recovery in GDP from the ground lost during (Q1)," says Markit. (PR)

    France still sucks:  Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.9 in January from 44.6 in December; manufacturing output 40.8 vs 43.3; services crashes to 46-month low of 43.6 from 45.2; composite output also hits a 46-month trough of 42.7 vs 44.6. "Sickly performances from both the manufacturing and service sectors resulted in the steepest drop in overall output for almost four years, while the…(speed) of job losses gathered pace," says Markit. (PR)

    Spanish 10-year bond yields may be only just above 5%, but the crisis in the real economy continued unabated in Q4, with unemployment rising to a record 26.02% from 25.01% in Q3. The number of people out of work reached 6M, or a third of the eurozone's jobless citizens. It was even worse for those under 25 as youth unemployment hit 60%. - On the bright side – 1/3 of Europe's unemployed are in Spain so, if we ignore them – things for the rest of the continent are looking up

    The euro turns positive against the dollar following Germany's decent PMI data and is +0.1% at $1.3321. Earlier, it hit a session low of $1.3288

    Almost flat earnings and a disappointing forecast from Apple (AAPL) leave a few casualties in Japanese trading today: Softbank (SFTBY.PK) – a Japanese carrier of the iPhone – is down 0.9%, Sharp (SHCAY.PK) and Foster Electric – both of which make parts for the phone – dropped 1.5% and 1%, respectively.

    Japanese exports fell a more than expected 5.8% in December, outpacing expectations for a 4.7% dip, as shipments to China slipped again and even U.S.-bound exports shrank. Imports rose 1.9%, sending the trade deficit to ¥641.5B ($7.24B), which was also wider than economists forecast of ¥548.5B. Exports to China have declined recently over political tensions between the two nations, fell 15.8% in December, while those to the U.S. slipped 0.8%, the first decline in nearly 14 months. Exports to Western Europe fell 12.3%.

     “These are bad numbers for the economy,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. and a former BOJ official. “The positive impact of the yen’s decline on exports has yet to be seen, but it is already boosting import values.”

    China's January HSBC Flash PMI rises to 51.9 from December's final read of 51.5. It's the 5th consecutive rise for the index which now stands at its highest level in 2 years. "Despite still-tepid external demand," says HSBC, "the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery."

    China manufacturing capacity utilization in 2012 below 2008 level: UBSThe overcapacity problem in China created by booming economic growth in recent decades resulted in even lower utilization in the manufacturing sector in 2012 than during the global financial crisis in 2008.

    What Really Goes On In China.

    South Korea's Q4 GDP rises just 1.5% Y/Y, pulling growth for all of 2012 down to 2%, the weakest since 2009 and well below this summer's central bank forecast of 3%. The export-driven economy has been hit by the 1-2 punch of weak external demand and a strengthening won. The Kospi is down a fraction.

    More on Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 call: Tim Cook mentions over 2M Apple TVs were sold in the quarter, and asserts the TV is "an area of intense interest" (previous). The new iMac was also heavily supply-constrained during the quarter. The mix of current to prior-gen iPhone sales was similar to a year ago. CFO Peter Oppenheimer says new stock buybacks is something Apple continually assesses. This could be a good time for one. (live blog) (more on Apple) 

    Apple(AAPL) Sold More Than 2 Million Apple TVs Last Quarter, Tim Cook Dodges Question About Future TV Plans

    Boeing(BA) 787 to Stay Grounded as U.S. Can’t Explain FiresThe top two U.S. aviation regulators said they don’t know what led to battery flaws that prompted them to ground Boeing Co. (BA)’s 787, and defended their decision to not let the plane fly until the cause is found.

    And more oil:  Shale Oil Bonanza Reaches Australia With '$20 Trillion' Discovery. 

    Kashkari Resigns Amid 'Spotty' Fund Performance, Heads Back To Public Office.

    Is Contemporary Conservatism Just ‘Payola’? (Center for American Progress)

    The conservative movement is still an elaborate moneymaking venture (Salon)

    Dollar up and down but still around 80, oil $95.59, gold $1,681 with a lot of negative outlooks hitting them this morning, silver failed $32 ($31.975) so a good long over that line if the Dollar fails 80, copper down to $3.68 on China over-supply concerns (again).  Yes, it doesn't just magically go away…  Nat gas tested $3.50 and back to $3.58 but will suck for them when the cold snaps and gasoline refuses to lose at $2.85 but inventories today will be interesting.  Gasoline is a tempting but very dangerous short below the $2.85 line (/RB). 

    Notable earnings before Thursday’s open: ABCALK,ARGAVTBAXBMYBPOPCELGCYDOVEQTESIETN,FCS

    GWWJNSJVAKCGKEYLMTLUVMKCMMMMWW,NMMNOKORIPCPQSII

    RTNRYNSWKTZOOUALUNP,XRX

    Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: CPHDCRUS,EDEGHTETFCFLEXINFAJBHTJNPRKLACMSFT

    MXIM,QLGCRMBSRMDSBUXSCSSSXLSYNATTKRTPX,VRSN

    Thursday's economic calendar:

    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims

    9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

    10:00 Leading Indicators

    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories

    4:30 PM Money Supply

    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Raoul Pal Warns The Day Of Reckoning Looms For VIX Shorts: "Reminds Me Of Portfolio Insurance In 1987"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

ubmitted by Patrick Ceresna via Macrovoices.com,

In a podcast interview on MacroVoices, Macro Guru Raoul Pal makes some comments on some of the biggest imbalances in the markets today. 

He compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash......



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

2016 Data - Americans Leave CT, IL, NY And NJ IN Droves

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Which States Did Americans Leave in 2016?

Migration patterns for 2016 show that Americans tended to move away from high-tax states and into states where residents keep more of what they earn.

United Van Lines, the nation’s largest moving company, recently released its annual movers study report showing that South Dakota overtook Oregon as the top inbound destination. Generally, more people moved toward the West, and states in the Northeast saw the largest exodus of residents. The top four outbound states in 2016, in order, were New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and Connecticut.

(Photo: Tax Foundation)

The Tax Foundation point...



more from ValueWalk

Digital Currencies

Why A Bitcoin ETF May Not Be Coming Any Time Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When it comes to the future of bitcoin, the "holy grail" has emerged as becoming the first to have a bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC.

Over three years ago, in 2013, the company of the Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, Winklevoss Capital Management LLC, launched the first proposed bitcoin ETF, the Winklevoss Investment Trust, looking to trade on the HFT-dominated BATS exchange. The SEC is expected to make a decision on it by March. A second group, SolidX Partners followed last July seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, SolidX Bitcoin Trust, which also would be listed on the NYSE....



more from Bitcoin

Phil's Favorites

How You Can #Resist ... With Your Portfolio

 

How You Can #Resist … With Your Portfolio

Courtesy of 

“We have become great because of the lavish use of our resources. But the time has come to inquire seriously what will happen when our forests are gone, when the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are exhausted, when the soils have still further impoverished and washed into the streams, polluting the rivers, denuding the fields and obstructing navigation.”

– Republican President Theodore Roosevelt

This post is not going to be political. My partner Barry Ritholtz has been at the forefront of the idea that ...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Big Oil May Finally Get to Drill in the Arctic, But Is It Worth It? (Bloomberg)

Far above the Arctic Circle, one of the longest-running controversies in U.S. oil drilling is about to reignite.

Bouyed by Donald Trump’s election, Republicans are pushing to allow oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the frigid wilderness in northern Alaska that’s been a political battleground for drillers and conservationists for decades.

...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

more from M.T.M.

Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

more from Biotech

Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>