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  1. Phil

    CNBC holding a gleeful funeral for AAPL.  

    AAPL's Conference Call.

    Funny how these word clouds can sometimes sum things right up:  "Company Introduced New Products" – that pretty much sums up the Q and explains the thin margins with $1Bn spent on R&D, which is $700M more than usual, which is 5% of the profits and accounts for the shortfall in gross margin.  

    Also ignored by analysts is the 13 week quarter vs 14 weeks last year (7%) as a huge handicap.  Guidance did not make up for things though but they are still well on track to make $45Bn+ this year – and that's a p/e of 10.  AAPL sells $4Bn worth of stuff a week and makes $1Bn and a week was missing from this Q – keep that in mind…

    They also bought back $4.5Bn in stock (1%), probably the best thing they could have done with their cash at these prices. Plans on giving back $15Bn a year to shareholders, which indicated dividend will be closing in on 3%. 

    Other highlights from the CC:

    500M iOS devices sold – 10 per second in the last Q (80M) so overall iOS sales are accelerating.  

    Cook reminds people quarter was short a week – no mention on CNBC, that's for sure

    Average weekly revenue was $4.2Bn vs $3.3Bn last year – up 27%

    This also explains drop in operating margins: "For segment reporting purposes we’re allocating certain manufacturing cost and variances including cost related to product tooling and manufacturing process equipment to our operating segments instead of including these expenditures in corporate expenses as we have done in the past."

    "We were very pleased to sell 47.8 million iPhones compared to 37 million in the year ago quarter, an increase of over 10 million iPhones."

    "This represents a rate of almost 3.7 million iPhones per week in the current year quarter compared to 2.6 million per week in the year ago quarter."

    "That’s an average increase of 39% per week consistent with IDC’s latest published forecast for the global smartphone market in the December quarter." – In other words, no loss of market share globally. 

    "And on a sequential basis iPhone sales grew 78% over the September quarter’s results. That’s over 3.5 times IDC’s latest published projection for sequential growth of the overall market resulting in iPhone market share growth."

    "Turning to iPad, we were thrilled to sell 22.9 million iPads during the quarter compared to 15.4 million in the year ago quarter. That translates to over 1.7 million iPads per week in the current year quarter compared to 1.1 million per week in the year ago quarter, an average increase of 60% per week, ahead of IDC’s latest published estimate of 56% growth for the tablet market."

    "As we projected a quarter ago, we were significantly constrained with respect to the new iMacs and were only able to ship them for the final month of the December quarter. We believe our Mac sales would have been much higher absent those constraints. "

    "Moving to iPod, we sold 12.7 million iPods compared to 15.4 million in the year ago quarter."

    "iTunes generated record results with revenue of $2.1 billion in the quarter."

    "The App Store had a record-breaking December quarter with over 2 billion downloads in the month of December alone. The App Store now offers more than 775,000 apps to over 0.5 billion account holders in 155 countries"

    "we’re delighted to have paid our app developers over $7 billion for sales"

    "Apple retail stores, revenue was in all-time high of over 6.4 billion with growth yield primarily by record iPhone and iPad sales. We opened in total 11 new stores during the quarter including four new stores in Greater China. We excited the quarter with 401 stores, a 150 of which are outside United States. We also relocated or expanded 14 stores that had outgrown their former space during the quarter. With an average of 396 stores opened, average revenue per store was 16.3 million or 1.25 million per store per week compared to 1.22 million per store per week in the year ago quarter. Retail segment income was 1.6 billion."

    "Operating expenses were $3.9 billion included $460 million in stock based compensation expense. (Inaudible) was $462 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 26%. Turning to cash, our cash plus short term and long term marketable securities totaled a $137.1 billion at the end of the December quarter compared to a $121 billion at the end of the September quarter, a sequential increase of almost $16 billion."

    "The increase in cash was net of 2.5 billion in dividends paid and 2 billion in an upfront payment in conjunction with our accelerated share repurchase program. Over 94 billion of our total cash was offshore at the end of the December quarter. Cash flow from operations was a record 23.4 billion growing by almost 6 billion year-over-year of 33% increase. Our Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $2.55 for common share payable on February 14th, 2013 the shareholders at record as of the close of business on February 11th, 2013."

    "For the March quarter we’re providing revenue guidance of between $41 billion and $43 billion compared to $39.2 billion in the year ago quarter. We expect gross margin to be between 37.5% and 38.5% reflecting approximately $90 million related to stock based compensation expense. We expect OpEx to be between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion including about $480 million related to stock based compensation."

    "I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these, I don’t want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it's good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on."

    "If you look at the previous year, our Mac sales were about 5.2 million (units). This year, they were 4.1 million and so the difference is 1.1 million. And so let me try to bridge that. iMacs were down by 700,000 units year-over-year. As you remember, we announced the new iMacs late in October and when we announced those, we announced that they would ship, the first one, the 21.5-inch would ship in November and we did ship it at the end of November, we announced that the 27-inch would ship in December and we did ship that in mid-December. And so there were limited weeks of ramping on these products during the quarter, we left the quarter with significant constraints on the iMac. And we believe we know that our sales would have been materially higher if those constraints would not have exist. We tried to tell people this on the conference call in October, I think I said that we would have significant constraints on iMacs, but I recognized to some folks this maybe to surprise.

    Number two, if you look at last year, as Peter went through in his opening comments we had 14 weeks in the quarter. We have 13 weeks in the quarter this year. Last year, in the average week, we sold 370,000 Macs. The third part of the bridge here would be that our channel inventory was down from the beginning of the quarter by over 100,000 units. And that’s because obviously we didn’t have the iMacs channel inventory was in significant constraint. So, if you just take these three factors, they bridge more than the difference of between this year sales and last year sales.

    Now, in addition to these three points, I would point out two other things, and these are lesser things than these other than the total of these other three obviously. One, the market for PCs is weak. IDC’s last estimate I believe was around negative 6%. Two, we sold 23 million iPads and we obviously could have sold more than this, because we could not build enough iPad minis to come into a demand balance. And so there was – we have always said there is some cannibalization there. I am sure there was some cannibalization of Macs there, but the three large factors of it, the aggregated totals of three large, the iMac, the difference in seven days of the previous year having seven extra days and the channel inventory, I think more than explains the difference between this year and the previous year. As a side note, if you looked at our portables alone, they were in line with IDC’s projections of market growth."

    "If you look at our total China, total Greater China, which would include our retail stores that are in China. Our revenues were $7.3 billion in the quarter. So, this is incredibly high, it’s up over 60% year-on-year. And again, that’s comparing 13 to 14 weeks and so it’s really the underlying growth, it’s higher than that. We saw exceptional growth in iPhones into the triple digits."

    "In terms of cannibalization and how we think about this, I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity for us. One, our base philosophy is to never fear cannibalization. If we do, somebody else will just cannibalize it and so we never fear it. We know that iPhone has cannibalized some iPod business. It doesn’t worry us, but it’s done that. We know that iPad will cannibalize some Macs that doesn’t worry us. On iPad in particular, we have the mother of all opportunities here, because the Windows market is much, much larger than the Mac market is. And I think it is clear that it is clear that it’s already cannibalizing some and I think there is a tremendous amount more opportunity there. And as you know, I have said for two or three, actually three years now I believe that I believe the tablet market will be larger than the PC market at some point. And I still believe that. And you can see by the growth in tablets and the pressure on PCs that those lines are beginning to converge."

    I think AAPL's biggest mistake was not calling the IPad a Flat Mac, so they could have just kept it in Mac sales and impressed everyone.  Cook also made a point that average selling prices for IPads were down $101 – as the mini is much cheaper – but unit sales more than made up for it, giving them the better overall sales numbers.  

    2,725 not breaking up on the Nas (/NQ) so far.  Not good if we hit resistance there. 

    Playing AAPL/Wombat – We won't know until it opens and we see the option pricing.  On the one hand, if it rebounds quickly, there's no need to do anything and, if it falls further – we'll be glad we waited (assuming our plan is to ride it out, which it still is).  So no need for quick action except, possibly, selling puts if the pricing is favorable. 



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

US & Arab Partner Nations Begin Airstrikes In Syria - Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the broad coalition crumbled, it appears Washington decided there was no time to waste:

  • *U.S., PARTNER NATIONS STRIKING ISIS IN SYRIA: PENTAGON
  • *U.S. USING FIGHTERS, BOMBERS, TOMAHAWKS TO ATTACK ISIS

 

NBC News reports the attack includes drones and is expecting to hit up to 20 targets. FOX is reporting Qatar is among the arab nation coalition (along with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain), according to Lt. Col. Oliver North, which is rather surprising given their rather well-kno...



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Phil's Favorites

Video: The Bizarre Reason Your Health Insurance Plan Was Cancelled

Courtesy of Mish.

There are lots of reasons why your health care plan may have been cancelled but this one is arguably the most bizarre.



Please play the video or the following discussion will not make much sense.

Link if video does not play: Why Your Plan Was Cancelled: Health Insurance and the Affordable Care Act.

I am automatically skeptical of such videos and articles. So I did some digging. It appears the video has it right.

"De Minimis Variation"

PDF page 36 of 40 of Federal Register, Vol. 78, No. 37 / Monday, February 25, 2013 / Rules and Regulations, spells things out nicely.
§ 156.140 Levels of coverage. (a) Ge...



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Chart School

Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Nickel

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both fell five cents for the second consecutive week and are now at their lowest averages since early February. Regular is up 16 cents and Premium 16 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, only one state (Hawaii) has Regular above $4.00 per gallon, unchanged from last week, and no states are averaging above $3.90, down from one state (Alaska) last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.08.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer....



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls leverage hopeful news to launch a tepid breakout attempt

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks were able to leverage some optimistic news and dovish words from the Fed to take another stab at an upside breakout attempt last week. Although readers have sometimes accused me of being a permabull, I am really a realist, and the reality is that the slogans like “The trend is your friend” and “Don’t fight the Fed” are truisms. And they have worked. Nevertheless, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback, especially given the weak technical condition of small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector ...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Wunderlich Lowers Price Target On American Eagle Energy Corp

Courtesy of Benzinga.

In a note issued Monday morning, Wunderlich Securities lowered its price target on American Eagle Energy Corp (NYSE: AMZG) from $15 to $13, while maintaining a Buy rating.

The firm commented, "We factored in a lower production forecast for the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015, a higher cost of borrowing, and higher debt load. As a result, we are lowering our NAV from $15 to $13 per share."

To highlight the lower production, Wunderlich noted the company is expecting production to peak earlier than expected in the fourth quarter and at a lower amount than previous forecast.

This change in production has caused Wunderlich to drastically lower its 2014 and 2015 EPS estimates from $0.30 and $0.44 to $0.06 and $0.14, respectively.

Lates...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Enjoy! Please sign in using your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

...

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Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

...

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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Promotions

Last Chance! See The 'Google-Like' Trading Algorithm 'Live' TODAY

Traders and Investors,

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In fact, it has an 82% win rate…

And had you only traded the conservative alerts recommended by the algorithm since inception, you would have experienced portfolio gains of more than 200%!

Register NOW and secure your virtual seat for one of Today’s LIVE presentations.

When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

  • Instant access to FOUR Quick-Start Expectancy...


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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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