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  1. Phil

    Tempting to take $4.50 and run on the NFLX spread but they're below $160 now and I just don't see them worth $170 – bottom line.  

    VMW ($25KPA) April $105s dead at .15, no point in selling them – maybe a miracle?  Feb $100s at .05 may as well close in $25KP as it's not worth the margin to keep them open but could save $15 by just closing the two uncovered ones since we're not going to kill the Aprils anyway.  

    Spending/Newt – Yes, we are running a roughly $1Tn deficit so around $100Bn a month and that's about what we need to borrow every month, just to keep the lights on.  So, not expanding the debt ceiling means we would have to cut $100Bn a month in spending – about 6% of our economy but then the economy would slow down and collections would decrease and then we'd have a bigger deficit and need to cut more.  That's how stupid austerity is.  

    Oil/Burr – I got the oil news.  Nebraska approved the Keystone pipeline that will take 3-4Mb per week out of Cushing and create false shortages forevermore (if Obama approves it and the GOP pressure is ENORMOUS here because it's great for all their sponsors) and that's why oil popped but still a long way to go and we just crossed $97 so game on for the shorts on /CL).  



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ValueWalk

Technicals Vs Fundamentals, Templeton, Ackman, Analysis of Valeant

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

https://monetary-metals.com/technical-vs-fundamental-report-19-mar-2017/

McCaskill: This Business Model Uses Patients as Hostages, via Fickr (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Technical analysis, in all of its forms, uses the past price movements to predict the future price movements. In some cases (e.g. momentum analysis) it calculates an intermediate signal from the price signal (momentum is the first derivative of price). But no matter the style, one analyzes price history to guess the next price move.

This is necessarily probabilistic. There is no way to know that a particular price move will follo...



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Zero Hedge

In Stinging Defeat, House Republicans Abandon Obamacare Repeal Effort

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

To summarize Friday's Congressional rollercoaster, the pundits and the White House were wrong, and the online betting markets were right.

Following a day of drama in Congress yesterday, Friday was another nail-biter until the last moment, and after Trump's Thursday ultimatum failed to yield more "yes" votes, the embattled bill seeking to replace major parts of Obamacare was yanked Friday from the floor of the House.

As a result, Trump suffered a second consecutive blow as opposition from within his own party forced Republican leaders to cancel a vote on healthcare reform fo...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

How a ‘Low Volatility’ Stock Plunged 85% in an Hour (The Wall Street Journal)

Reading the label isn’t enough for picking funds. You may need to go into the ingredients list, too.

Take a look at funds that track the MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets Index.

North Dakota Oil Spills 3 Times Larger Than First Estimated (Associated Press)

A December oil pipeline spill ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

How a ‘Low Volatility’ Stock Plunged 85% in an Hour (The Wall Street Journal)

Reading the label isn’t enough for picking funds. You may need to go into the ingredients list, too.

Take a look at funds that track the MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets Index.

North Dakota Oil Spills 3 Times Larger Than First Estimated (Associated Press)

A December oil pipeline spill ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fund flows of this size could mark a top, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A year ago flows into ETFs were extremely low, actually the lowest in years, as many stock market indices were testing rising support off the 2009 lows. The crowd wasn’t adding money to ETFs as lows were taking place. In hindsight, this was a mistake by the majority. Below I look at ETF flows over the past few years with an inset chart of the S&P 500.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Nearly three months into this year, fund flows have surpassed mone...



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Chart School

Indecision Strikes

Courtesy of Declan.

It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.

The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and ...

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Members' Corner

Natterings

Check out some new posts from our friend The Nattering Naybob. 

The Big Lebowski Sequel?

Taking a "resp-shit" or "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo"... One of our favorite scenes from the 1998 cult classic The Big Lebowski, the ash can scene where Walter Subchak (John Goodman) eulogizes the departed Donnie (Steve Buscemi) with Jeffrey Lebowski (Jeff Bridges) looking on.

Keep reading: ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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