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  1. Phil

    Incomes/Rev – Good catch and yes, white is the "new green" these days as it's a miracle to simply not lose ground in today's labor market.  When Hayek wrote "The Road to Serfdom" during WWII, it was his view that centralized planning led to Totalitarianism but that's a product of the time in which it was written, as people sought to explain how the World had gone so mad.  But all the "evils" of centralized planning are just as present in the Corporate Kleptocracy we have devolved into as they ever were under Fascist regimes of his time.  Hayek's main point was that, in Socialist societies, the will off a small minority would be imposed upon the people but that's exactly what happens now in America, where a powerful few control the masses, who are merely given the false choice between two flavors of the same status quo at election time.  In fact, Hayek himself said that such systems require effective propaganda for people to believe the stat's goals are their own. 

    Anyway, I bring that up because I was arguing with some guys last night who were quoting Hayek to attack the "Socialist" Obama but it goes back to that whole Conservative brain thing where, just because Hayek used the word "Socialist" at the time, doesn't mean it has anything to do with the modern concept of Socialism in the same way the the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics are not quite the same brand of "Socialism" as the modern EU.  

    3am/Dawn – I'm often up at 3am and I'm all caught up on my Tivo so what's a fella to do?  I will be mindful of your multi-faceted trading strategies as I do then to be a little over-cautious when asked about trade ideas as most risks are not for most traders.  Of course, you have to realize also that, when I do answer your question, sometimes I'm making a general point to all who read it and it's not aimed specifically at you, as I do realize you are a pro trader but, as you note, even pro traders get burned so consider me a sounding board offering a word of caution and not the absolute arbiter of your trade ideas. 

    As to my trading approach – it too varies with my overall long and short-term outlook for the markets in general and for each stock so trying to peg down "rules" is not very productive as the only real rule I have is trying to minimize risk and maximize reward on each trade and THEN trying to be right more often than I'm wrong.  If you combine that approach with reasonable cash management – you can become very wealthy over time!  

    You are absolutely right that it is the best time to buy long calls – IN THEORY – as the VIX is low but the 2015 VIX is not low, only the short-term VIX that you see and, if we are highly expectant of floating up due to inflation and an improving economy, then why not sell puts, which are nearly a sure-thing, vs buying calls, where you pay your premium and take your chances.  Again, I'm generally conservative so if we look at INTC, for example, which is trading at $21.58, it's very easy to make a case that they SHOULD be trading at $25 to $30 over the next two years and you could buy the 2015 $22 calls for $2.20 and then you "only" need $24.20 to break even and the rest is wonderful, leveraged profits.  But, on the other hand, if this or that happens in the economy or INTC's notebook sales (35.6% of their business) or Desktop sales (15.2%) or even their Server Processors (23.4%) have some troubles over the next two years – you have nothing.  

    If however, we SELL the 2015 $18 puts for $1.80, TOS tells us that the net margin is $1.80 so we get 100% return on margin and all INTC has to do is NOT fall $3.50 (16%) over the next two years and we get the whole 100% and we don't lose money unless INTC is below $16.20, which is 25% below the current price.  So, to make $1.80 on INTC I have a choice of buying a call for $2.20 and needing INTC to get to $26 by Jan 2015 (up 20.5%) or I can sell the put, get the $1.80 TODAY and make that money as long as INTC doesn't fall below 18 (down 16%).  

    That means my next advantage selling puts on INTC vs buying calls is 36.5% to make the same $1.80 and buying calls costs me $2.20 of my cash while selling calls costs me $1.80 of my margin.  That's the basis for our strategy at this time.   Should the balance change – I'd be happy to change my strategy but you can't walk away from a 36% advantage on a trade, can you?  



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ValueWalk

Wage Inflation - Gradually And Then Suddenly

By Salient Partners. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“How did you go bankrupt,” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

“What brought it on?”

“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends.”

? Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises (1926)

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Bank Deregulation Back in Vogue: It's time to dance the last fandango!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.


 

The Great Recession was so great for the only people who matter that it is time to do it all again. Time to shed those bulky new regulations that are like clod-hoppers on our heals and dance the light fantastic with your friendly bankster. Shed the encumbrances and get ready for the new roaring twenties.

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Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related X 20 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session 12 Stocks To Watch For July 25, 2017 ...

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Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

 

Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

Courtesy of Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University; David McLennan, Meredith College, and Rachel Caufield, Drake University

On July 25, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell narrowly managed to keep a Republican effort to reform health care alive. We asked our experts to consider the importance of this procedural vote and what happens next.

Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University

Which...

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Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In potentially groundbreaking news for the blockchain community, moments ago the SEC issued a press release, referencing an investor bulletin on Initial Coin Offerings, which concluded that DAO Tokens, a Digital Asset, are securities for ...



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Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

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Tech Gaining Momentum. Small Caps Recover.

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech markets continued the good work from Friday as buyers continued to bid up the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Large Caps posted small losses but this was more about attention elsewhere than any Large Cap specifics.

The Nasdaq experienced a mini-breakout from the consolidation over the last 3 days (traders on the hourly time frame may find some joy here) which keeps the index on course to test larger upper channel resistance. Technicals are net bullish but its relative performance against peer indices which is doing particularly well; Large Caps in particular.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

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EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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