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  1. Phil

    Bill Day - Cagle Cartoons - State of the Congress  COLOR - English - State of the Union, Obama, Congress, White House, economy, jobsI'm thinking flat today, then Plosser bums us out, Obama takes a hard line on debt ceiling and then GOP takes even harder line and Tea Party says something crazy (that one's a given) and then more Fed negativity tomorrow so I will be AMAZED if we're not down 1% by 1pm tomorrow.  

    Let's call that Dow 13,850, S&P 1,502, Nas 3,160, NYSE 8,840 and RUT 905 – those are all well over our worry lines but that's my guess for tomorrow's 10-year auction at 1pm (more like 12:15 as they ANNOUNCE at 1pm).  

    Oil is right on that $97.50 line and a tough short ahead of tomorrow's inventory for the Futures and our March $35.50 puts are back down to .85 after we failed to take $1.40 off the table more than once as it didn't seem worth it off our $1.18 entry.  So, if we now double down at .85, we end up with 20 at net $1.02 and then we should be THRILLED to take 1/2 off at $1.20 or more so let's do that in our $25KPs and see how it goes.  Keep in mind this was planned from the beginning – which is why we're only in the position for $1,180 in the first place.  



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Ignoring Occam's Razor (Or Why It's Not Different This Time)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Excerpted from John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment,

Occam’s razor is a principle that states that among various hypotheses that might be used to explain a set of observations, the hypothesis – consistent with the evidence – that relies on the smallest number of assumptions is generally preferred. Essentially, the razor shaves away what is unnecessary and retains the most compact explanation that is consistent with the data.

...

When we observe the increasingly tortured arguments that “this time is different,” we see investors discarding straightforward explanations that are fully consistent with the evidence and opting instead for the aliens-from-Xe...



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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Phil's Favorites

When Perfect "There Can't Be A Recession" Indicators Fail

Courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man

A Dangerous Misconception

Ever since the echo bubble went into overdrive due to the Fed adding what by now are nearly $5 trillion to the broad US money supply TMS-2, while keeping the administered interest rate practically at zero, people have been looking for excuses as to why the latest bit of asset boom insanity will never end (few of them wanted to be long “risk” in 2009, but they sure are eager to justify their exposure now).

One popular theme gets reprinted in variations over and over again. Here is a recent example from Business Insider, which breathlessly informs us of the infallibility of the yield curve as a forecasting tool:  “...



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Chart School

Eye on the Market Broadcast: A Deeper Look into the Labor Force

Courtesy of Doug Short.

I've again had the honor of being a guest on David O. England's Eye on the Market radio broadcast. My first segment last month focused on household incomes. A second segment explored some of the complexities of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.

I posted a brief commentary last month highlighted some of the key data points in those two segments: Eye on the Marke...



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Insider Scoop

NQ Down +20% On Audit Update

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NQ Equity Indeces Reverse Losses; Crude Oil Falls Hard Rent-A-Center Shares Fall On Downbeat Forecast; Lorillard Surges

Shares of NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) are under fire Thursday morning as longs lose confidence and shorts continue to pile into the stock.

The biggest news of the morning is that PwC, who is conducting an audit of NQ’s 2013 financials, “would need to perform additional procedures and exp...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Option Review

Options Active On Amazon.Com

Options on Amazon.com, Inc. (Ticker: AMZN) are seeing heavy volume on the final trading session of the week amid strong gains in the price of the stock, which is currently up more than 4.0% on the day at $342.09 and the highest level since April. At last check, more than 127,000 options contracts have changed hands on Amazon or twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 63,100 contracts. Call options are more active than puts as of the time of this writing, with the call/put ratio hovering near 1.33 just before midday in New York. The bulk of the volume is in the 11Jul’14 weekly options currently in their final day of trading prior to expiration, and in the 18Jul’14 expiry calls and puts. Amazon.com reports second-quarter earnings after the close of trading on July 24th.

...

more from Caitlin

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 7th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Summer slog likely to keep a lid on further stock gains

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stock investors entered the Fourth of July holiday on a high note, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials Index above 17,000 and the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index above 21,000, and even pushing the S&P 500 to a smidge above the upper trend line of its long-standing bullish ascending channel that has been in place for nearly three years. However, with the Independence Day cheer behind us, persistently overbought technical conditions, and two months of summer doldrums ahead until the Labor Day holiday, I don’t think stocks are likely to muster much in the way of further progress over the near term. This may give bears a chance to make their long-stymied move.  Although bulls should be able to maintain the upper hand in the longer term, I expect bears will finally have their window of opportunity to driv...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest newsletter is available at Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to sign in. Or take a free trial here. 

 

#162918678 / gettyimages.com ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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