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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Buffett buying HNZ for 20% over a close that was already up 10% since Thanksgiving shows you that this market still has legs.   As I've been saying, this M&A stuff is just terrifying for the bears as it's not just HNZ that jumps but the whole sector.  That's why you can't just sit out these rallies – we can get to silly valuations very quickly and THEN it's time to get to cash.  I don't think we're there yet, but that's what our levels are for anyway – to take the emotion out of the equation for both bulls and bears. 

    To that end,  we were looking for pullbacks on Tuesday that never came and, even in this morning's Futures drop, we didn't come close to:

    • Dow 13,850
    • S&P 1,502
    • Nas 3,160
    • NYSE 8,840
    • RUT 905

    Since we're actually up a bit since I posted them, it's going to take even more of a pullback to hit those levels and put us into any kind of worry.  As StJ pointed out the new Big Chart – the Russell is already at the 15% line at 920 and the S&P is right on our 1,520 line (Coincidence?  Of course not) and 14,000 is the 2.5% line on the Dow on the button and that means we have bullish goals of 3,225 on the Nasdaq (now 3,196) and 9,000 on the NYSE (now 8,955) BEFORE we fail 1,520 and 920.  

    As that's not likely to happen – we do need to remain a bit cautious ahead of a possible pullback – especially with the Dollar over 80.50 again (now 80.615) and oil poised for a possible drop (now $97.50 and lined up for yet another short on /CL!).  

    BBRY joining BKS in the graveyard of AAPL competitors.  It's deja vu from the IPod days all over again.   Aside from SNE walkmen and MSFT Zune, there was Creative's whatever it was called and dozens of other MP3 players and they copied the wheel and the screen and the menus and the buttons and they were cheaper and bigger and faster….  Now, there is only IPod.  It did take a long time – I think Zune was 2007 and that was 5 years after the IPod started and they were still trying to take it down.  

    BlackBerry (BBRY-6.1% after former chairman/co-CEO Jim Balsillie discloses he has completely liquidated his stake in the company. The stake was valued at $385M last March, when Balsillieresigned from BlackBerry's board after having already been removed from his other positions. Strategy disagreements reportedly played a role in his departure. Shares are now down 23% on the week. (13G) (yesterday)

    Of course it took AAPL over a decade from the release of the first IBook to become the leading notebook maker – also with a more expensive model that had "less" features than other competitors.  It's funny really – it's as if Porsche puts out a new car and people automatically assume it sucks – despite their very long, successful history of putting out great cars that people love.  Some companies are just good – all the time – like HNZ selling the same old, boring food – year after year after year and making more and more money until Warren Buffett decides they are still too cheap at 16x earnings and offers them 20x.  

    AAPL is trading at just 8x earnings – not including the 3x earnings of cash on their books.  

    Have I mentioned how much I like AAPL lately?  Yesterday's trade idea is still doable:

    AAPL Next week $470s are $6 and we can sell the Friday $465s for $4.25, which is what the next week $475s are going for so I'm thinking it would be fun to see how this works out.  Let's do 5 in the $25KPA as an excercize in Premium Decay.  



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Zero Hedge

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds (and yes, flattening the JGB curve even more much to the chagrin of the BOJ) and the yen.

As JPM points out early this morning, stocks are trading poorly pretty much everywhere. N...



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Phil's Favorites

The Wedge That's Driving Facebook's Stock

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The stock of Facebook has been in a rising wedge pattern for most of its lifetime – and the pattern is nearing a resolution.

Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a rare detour into single stock territory. As we do not trade individual equities for our clients, it is typically not a focus of ours. But with Facebook (FB) in the news today (along with a dearth of exciting charts) we take a look at a chart pattern relevant to FB throughout most of its history – and in particular, right now.

A “rising wedge” pattern involves a series of higher highs and higher lows on a price chart – with the lows demonstrating a s...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 25, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

It was all about the Federal Reserve as we noted it would be.  In last week’s recap we said:

From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

…and:

All eyes on the Federal Reserve with a meeting Tue/Wed and a press conference by Yellen Wednesday.   Since we expect nothing to happen Wednesday in terms of raising rates maybe the market will be in “relief” mode.  Unless there is strong language from Yellen hinting at a December rate hike....



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ValueWalk

Mark Morey: Social Revolution

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Largely out of the headlines, the ongoing protest on Standing Rock is shining a bright light on how the big-moneyed interests with political clout steamroll the disadvantaged in order to get what they need.

Photo by tomwieden (Pixabay)

But in a rare David-vs-Goliath standoff, the Sioux tribespeople of Standing Rock Reservation are learning that they are not powerless. Their refusal to roll over and allow an oil pipleline to be built on their lands is growing into one of the largest resistance movements in recent years, drawing supporters from all over the country, and forcing the discussion of “Where do we draw t...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Merkel Rules out Assistance for Deutsche Bank, Focus Reports (Bloomberg)

Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank AG in the year heading into the national election in September 2017, Focus magazine reported, citing unidentified government officials.

A divided town in Connecticut shows that finance is ruining Ame...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil attempting key breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at Crude Oil on a “Monthly Closing” basis, since the early 1980’s.

Crude Oil started tanking in 2014 and its low earlier this year, took place at dual long-term support at (1) below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Two support lines, that date back over a decade, came into play at (1) and so far have held. Crude remains in a down trend and this down trend is being tested at this time.

Joe ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 19th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

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