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  1. Phil

    Here's a couple from the vaults:


    GLD is the gold ETF and ABX is my favorite miner but they are way up from where I picked them.  To me the play on Gold is to look for $1,500 to $2,000, which is $150 to $200 on GLD so the 2010 $105s for $10.40 just to put away for safe-keeping or the 2010 $80s for $19.40, where you can sell the Nov $100s for $2.20 without worrying about the caller hurting you.  10 sales like that and you’ve got free calls…



    ABX/TC – I doubt it would get put to you at $20 and, if so, then say "Thank you sir may I have another."



    ABX is getting cheap again, investors are betting deflation, which may happen if the governement does nothing but Bernanke just said yesterday he will do whatever it takes and we know that Ben thinks what it takes is a deluge of dollars dropped on the market.


    ABX Nov $25 puts for $2.60 are a SELLSELLSELL as you end up with ABX at $22.50, which is 2005 lows when gold was $400 an ounce and oil was $60.  Their production costs at $100 oil was about $320 an ounce so they make more money per ounce now than the entire ounce of gold sold for in 2005!



    Gold – Don’t forget that owning ABX and GLD is a form of portfolio disaster protection and inflation protection.   ABX is very nice as you can sell against it while you wait but GLD 2010 $80s at $13.60 can go to $120 if gold goes to $2,000 and, if it doesn’t, you can sell the Nov $93 calls for $1.40 so it’s not a bad place to park 5% of your portfolio as massive meltdown protection.  You set a stop at a net loss of $7 and you are risking 2.5% against something that can be a 10 bagger when everything else in the world falls apart…




    GLD crazy cheap again at $76.61 – this is BS unwinding accompanied by China’s move to curb speculation but gold is still gold and now, in addition to the leaps, the Nov $77s at $5 are a nice gamble.  ABX is also great at $24, either to just own or to grab the Nov $25s at $2.88.



    ABX is so good down here at $24.40!   You can sell Dec $22.50s for $4.20 so in for net $20.20 with an 11% gain in 2 months if called away.  You can also just sell the current $22.50s for $1.65 as you can always roll them to Dec (the Jan $20 puts are already $1.82 so you’re looking at not getting it put to you until about $18).



    ABX at $20 is still a great deal.



    ABX at $18.25!  Gold back at $715.  This is one crazy mofo market.



    RYAAY under $20 is nice, CAL crazy low at $15.50, ABX is still a great way to by tons of gold and get a mining company for free at $18, GOOG held 5%, AAPL still at $92 and you can sell $85 puts for $5, that’s in at $80, VLO $15 puts are $2 but, frankly, you should be mad if you DON’T get to buy them at $15.  You may see these prices go lower on Monday or you may never see these prices again in your lifetime…


    Not everything went straight up (we had the 2nd crash in March, 2009) but those who had conviction with their positions did very well in the long-run, as do most people who buy and hold most stocks tend to do.  You can't make value plays with a day-traders' mentality – you're never going to be satisfied, or happy…

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