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  1. Phil

    Here's a couple from the vaults:

     

    GLD is the gold ETF and ABX is my favorite miner but they are way up from where I picked them.  To me the play on Gold is to look for $1,500 to $2,000, which is $150 to $200 on GLD so the 2010 $105s for $10.40 just to put away for safe-keeping or the 2010 $80s for $19.40, where you can sell the Nov $100s for $2.20 without worrying about the caller hurting you.  10 sales like that and you’ve got free calls…

     

     

    ABX/TC – I doubt it would get put to you at $20 and, if so, then say "Thank you sir may I have another."

     

     

    ABX is getting cheap again, investors are betting deflation, which may happen if the governement does nothing but Bernanke just said yesterday he will do whatever it takes and we know that Ben thinks what it takes is a deluge of dollars dropped on the market.

     

    ABX Nov $25 puts for $2.60 are a SELLSELLSELL as you end up with ABX at $22.50, which is 2005 lows when gold was $400 an ounce and oil was $60.  Their production costs at $100 oil was about $320 an ounce so they make more money per ounce now than the entire ounce of gold sold for in 2005!

     

     

    Gold – Don’t forget that owning ABX and GLD is a form of portfolio disaster protection and inflation protection.   ABX is very nice as you can sell against it while you wait but GLD 2010 $80s at $13.60 can go to $120 if gold goes to $2,000 and, if it doesn’t, you can sell the Nov $93 calls for $1.40 so it’s not a bad place to park 5% of your portfolio as massive meltdown protection.  You set a stop at a net loss of $7 and you are risking 2.5% against something that can be a 10 bagger when everything else in the world falls apart…

     

     

     

    GLD crazy cheap again at $76.61 – this is BS unwinding accompanied by China’s move to curb speculation but gold is still gold and now, in addition to the leaps, the Nov $77s at $5 are a nice gamble.  ABX is also great at $24, either to just own or to grab the Nov $25s at $2.88.

     

     

    ABX is so good down here at $24.40!   You can sell Dec $22.50s for $4.20 so in for net $20.20 with an 11% gain in 2 months if called away.  You can also just sell the current $22.50s for $1.65 as you can always roll them to Dec (the Jan $20 puts are already $1.82 so you’re looking at not getting it put to you until about $18).

     

     

    ABX at $20 is still a great deal.

     

     

    ABX at $18.25!  Gold back at $715.  This is one crazy mofo market.

     

     

    RYAAY under $20 is nice, CAL crazy low at $15.50, ABX is still a great way to by tons of gold and get a mining company for free at $18, GOOG held 5%, AAPL still at $92 and you can sell $85 puts for $5, that’s in at $80, VLO $15 puts are $2 but, frankly, you should be mad if you DON’T get to buy them at $15.  You may see these prices go lower on Monday or you may never see these prices again in your lifetime…

     

    Not everything went straight up (we had the 2nd crash in March, 2009) but those who had conviction with their positions did very well in the long-run, as do most people who buy and hold most stocks tend to do.  You can't make value plays with a day-traders' mentality – you're never going to be satisfied, or happy…



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Zero Hedge

UMich Consumer Sentiment Slumps To 6-Month Lows, Current Conditions Crash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following the collapse in Gallup's consumer confidence and Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort, UMich Consumer Senitment printed 90.7 (against expectations of a rise to 89.5 from 95.9). With May's preliminary print the biggest miss in 17 months, this final drop leaves Consumer Sentiment at its lowest since November 2014. Hope dropped from 88.8 to 84.2 but it was the collapse in Current conditions - which fell from 107 to 100.8 - that crushed the headline. This is the biggest plunge in current conditions since Summer 2011 (the US debt downgrade). Business expectatio...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 – Is it repeating the 2000 & 2007 topping pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Could the S&P 500 be pulling a repeat of the 2000-2007 topping process?

The chart above reflects that the tops in 2000 & 2007 were 7 years and 7 months apart. Is it possible that another top is taking place 7 years and 7 months from the 2007 high? As the S&P is facing this potential time window repeating pattern, it is also staring the Fibonacci 161% Extension resistance level based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows, at the top of a rising wedge.

Is the S&P the only market facing a breakout test? The chart below takes a look at the white hot DAX index.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Introducing the Zero Labor Factory (90% Free Actually); Robots at Chili's, Applebees, Panera

Courtesy of Mish.

In the strive for zero labor factories we are nearly there. Is 90% good enough?

China Daily reports Manufacturing Hub Starts Work on First Zero-Labor Factory.
A manufacturing hub in South China's Guangdong province has begun constructing the city's first zero-labor factory, a signal that the local authorities are bringing into effect its "robot assembling line" strategy.

Dongguan-based private company Everwin Precision Technology Ltd is pushing toward putting 1,000 robots in use in its first phase of the zero-labor project, China National Radio reported. It said the company has already put first 100 robots on the assembly line.

"The 'zero-labor factory' does not mean we will not employ any humans, but what it means is that we will sc...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 28, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

After 2 volatile days, a return to more calm on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 0.13% and the NASDAQ 0.17%.  The daily Greek drama continues; IMF Managing Director Christine Lagare told a German newspaper that a Greek exit from the euro zone was possible but that this would probably not herald the end of the euro currency.  On Wednesday, both U.S. and European equities rallied after Greece said it had stated crafting a “staff level agreement” with its international bailout supervisors. However, European officials rebuked the claims on Thursday, saying there was some way to go before any agreement could be drawn up and that they were surprised by the upbeat sentiment from Greece.

Indexes look much the same as we entered the week.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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