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  1. Phil

    Good morning!

    I wish the market were open today – so many fun things going on…

    AAPL/Dawn – When something is drastically undervalued, it's pretty much a little jack in the box and the little crank just keeps turning and turning until some special note pops it.  I don't mean like Friday, that's just a wriggle in the low range – I mean a $50-$100 run over a couple of days kind of thing – some event when people say "hey, those guys make a LOT of money!"  As I noted to someone the other day, with AAPL, it could be one of about 10 things – that's what makes it such a good long.  

    They've already had the kitchen sink thrown at them as far as negatives go.  And, don't forget, those negatives are being thrown at AAPL by a media that's controlled by 6 companies – all of whom hate AAPL because they have taken control of the music business and are taking control of the publishing business and trying to take control of the TV business.  There are, annually, tens of Billions on the line here and these 6 companies will do whatever it takes to keep AAPL from succeeding:

    Keep in mind that Newsweek stopped publishing it's paper edition this year – these guys are terrified about losing control of the future – especially to someone who's not even in the club.  Jobs tried to build bridges with Disney, who are the least evil of the 6, but they just wanted to get Pixar and had no real interest in giving AAPL content, which went to Hulu and NFLX as soon as Jobs died.  

    AAPL is a disruptive force and there will be all-out content wars in the future.  So the studios and the TV stations and the news media look for any way they can to keep AAPL down – the same way they work very hard to keep Americans from seeing Al Jazeera as a viable entity – even though they are Walter Kronkite compared to Fox.  Overall, it's a long game that's being played and I wouldn't want to guess WHEN something will happen and, frankly, I don't care – because I'm much more patient than that.  

    If you buy a company for a long-term hold, you should buy it BECAUSE you want to hold it long-term, like a house.  And that means you buy it once and then, 10-20 years later, maybe you have occasion to sell it.  In between, you don't obsess over the PRICE because it doesn't matter.   People know and accept this about homes but can't accept it about stocks – even though most of us in the top 1% have a lot more money in stocks than we do in homes.  

    I put up notes last week about how just keeping money in the SPX beats almost every other ETF or hedge fund over the long-haul.  Buffett is notable for beating the S&P over 50 years but what does Buffett do – buys and holds.  This is the hardest thing I try to teach because there's no substitute for experience over time here.  Only by going through the cycles – USING a buy and hold strategy (modified with our scaling and selling premium strategies, of course) does it become clear to you what nonsense all these other "systems" are.  

    Sure it's fun to make short-term trades and I love them as you need something to do while you wait for your trees to grow large and bear fruit but it's also important to keep in mind that short-term trading is just gambling – and should never be taken too seriously.  

    A guy with an apple orchid can afford to give some away but the guy who's juggling 10 apples to survive can't afford to drop even one or two but the guy with the orchard started with 10 apples worth of seeds – and a different philosophy. 

    AAPL should buy a studio:  VIA is $32Bn, NWS is $72Bn, TWX is $53Bn, DIS is $104Bn, Vivendi $22Bn (Bertelsmann is private but around Fox's size).  They haven't because, if they bought one, the others would go insane.  Jobs took Disney stock for Pixar ($7.4Bn) and I think he intended to push for a greater alliance but Disney knew all they had to do was wait and the stock would end up getting redistributed among Steve's heirs, so there was no danger giving him 10% of the company (largest shareholder at the time).  

    The problem at the moment is Steve Jobs had a Tim Cook to run the company for him so he could run around making deals and, of course, his fanatical personality allowed him to ram deals down the throats of record companies at a time when their sales were weak and they were looking for an answer anyway.  Books are more or less a done deal as well but not magazines and newspapers nor TV or Film and that's where the real money is.  

    Tim Cook doesn't need a Tim Cook to run AAPL, Tim Cook needs a Steve Jobs to get out there and make those deals but that's very hard to replicate as part of what made Steve Jobs Steve Jobs was the fact that he came into a room with his reputation glowing around his head like a halo and every word he said carried the full weight of the AAPL Corporation – because the board learned (since they fired him and wrecked the company) never to say no to Steve.  

    You can't replicate that by hiring some guy, no matter how good he is.  

    Of course, Steve Jobs has only been dead for a year and 4 months – so maybe we should give Tim a chance! 

    By the way, Cook donated $100M of his own money last year (mostly to Stanford Hospital and Project Red to fight AIDS and such) and AAPL matched employee charity donations up to $10,000 a year.  AAPL is also spending $100M to move some of it's Mac production back to the US – starting this year.  

    This is not a company (or a CEO) playing a short game and, as we are well-aware, not many investors play the long game.  That makes companies like AAPL fantastic buy opportunities for me, Buffet and the 4 other guys left who actually like to own great companies for the long-term.  



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Fractional Friday Gain on Low Volume

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Another day of no US economic news saw a modest market advance on slender volume. The S&P 500 opened fractionally higher and sold off to its -0.26 intraday low 15 minutes later. The index bounced back into the shallow green, lost steam and then slowly recovered after the lunch hour to its 0.20% intraday high in the final hour. A bit of selling in near the close trimmed the gain to 0.15%.

Next week will give the market much to think about as earnings season shifts into high gear. We'll also get some major economic indicators -- retail sales on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index and Industrial Production on Wednesday.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.53%, 2 bps below the previous close. It is now 9 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a chart of the week. The index is up 6.45% year-to-date and 0.90% below ...



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Zero Hedge

T.I.G.E.R. Valley Bug Out Drill

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by hedgeless_horseman.

Bug Out Drill - Waco, TX

When: Saturday, Oct 4, 2014 Where: Joe Russell Rd & Hwy 84, Prairie Hill, TX   

Description/Course Description/Equipment Requirements

It's here again, the 2014 Bug Out Drill, the challenge unlike any other.
You’re driving home from work and an EMP strikes, the Russians have
detonated several nukes over the United States. The pulse has destroyed
all electronics and chaos has ensued. No signal lights, bank alarms,
stores are being robbed for anything of value. You move to your trunk
and get you Bug Out bag and start heading home, the best way you know.
This means you must tr...



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Phil's Favorites

Does the Fed Really Believe What it Says? What About Krugman?

Courtesy of Mish.

In response to BIS Slams the Fed; Ridiculous Question of the Day: "Is The Fed Going To Attempt A Controlled Collapse?" a number of people commented the Fed cannot be so stupid as to think there is no asset bubble. Here are some examples: Gordon says " The Fed is not stupid and yet many think they are. They know there is a bubble but what good will it do if they announce it and the bubble bursts?" JFHogan says "Nobody could be stupid enough to believe that money printing will create wealth." R2bzjudge says "If I can understand there is an asset bubble, so can the Fed. Ax123man says "There is no way on earth Paul Krugman could actually believe (deep down) the things he says publicly"

Continue Here...

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Market Shadows

Prophylactic Close-Outs on Teva Pharmaceuticals

Prophylactic Close-Outs on Teva Pharmaceuticals

Better safe than sorry...

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

Bombs are flying between Israel and Gaza. This is not new, but it does appear to be escalating along with tensions in the area.

Our Virtual Put Writing Portfolio had been short one contract of the TEVA Jan. 2015, $42.50 put, and two contracts of the TEVA Jan. 2016, $45 strike price puts. These batches were sold on different days (see table below). 

Teva Pharmaceuticals has done very well since we initiated these trades. It was ...



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Option Review

Options Active On Amazon.Com

Options on Amazon.com, Inc. (Ticker: AMZN) are seeing heavy volume on the final trading session of the week amid strong gains in the price of the stock, which is currently up more than 4.0% on the day at $342.09 and the highest level since April. At last check, more than 127,000 options contracts have changed hands on Amazon or twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 63,100 contracts. Call options are more active than puts as of the time of this writing, with the call/put ratio hovering near 1.33 just before midday in New York. The bulk of the volume is in the 11Jul’14 weekly options currently in their final day of trading prior to expiration, and in the 18Jul’14 expiry calls and puts. Amazon.com reports second-quarter earnings after the close of trading on July 24th.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Markets Open Lower; Family Dollar Profit Misses Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BZSUM Lumber Liquidators Falls On Weak Forecast; Zumiez Shares Spike Higher #PreMarket Primer: Thursday, July 10: Fed Sets A Date For The End Of Easy Money

Following the market opening Thursday, the Dow traded down 0.85 percent to 16,840.96 while the NASDAQ tumbled 1.18 percent to 4,366...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 7th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Summer slog likely to keep a lid on further stock gains

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stock investors entered the Fourth of July holiday on a high note, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials Index above 17,000 and the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index above 21,000, and even pushing the S&P 500 to a smidge above the upper trend line of its long-standing bullish ascending channel that has been in place for nearly three years. However, with the Independence Day cheer behind us, persistently overbought technical conditions, and two months of summer doldrums ahead until the Labor Day holiday, I don’t think stocks are likely to muster much in the way of further progress over the near term. This may give bears a chance to make their long-stymied move.  Although bulls should be able to maintain the upper hand in the longer term, I expect bears will finally have their window of opportunity to driv...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest newsletter is available at Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to sign in. Or take a free trial here. 

 

#162918678 / gettyimages.com ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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