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  1. Phil

    Good morning!

    I wish the market were open today – so many fun things going on…

    AAPL/Dawn – When something is drastically undervalued, it's pretty much a little jack in the box and the little crank just keeps turning and turning until some special note pops it.  I don't mean like Friday, that's just a wriggle in the low range – I mean a $50-$100 run over a couple of days kind of thing – some event when people say "hey, those guys make a LOT of money!"  As I noted to someone the other day, with AAPL, it could be one of about 10 things – that's what makes it such a good long.  

    They've already had the kitchen sink thrown at them as far as negatives go.  And, don't forget, those negatives are being thrown at AAPL by a media that's controlled by 6 companies – all of whom hate AAPL because they have taken control of the music business and are taking control of the publishing business and trying to take control of the TV business.  There are, annually, tens of Billions on the line here and these 6 companies will do whatever it takes to keep AAPL from succeeding:

    Keep in mind that Newsweek stopped publishing it's paper edition this year – these guys are terrified about losing control of the future – especially to someone who's not even in the club.  Jobs tried to build bridges with Disney, who are the least evil of the 6, but they just wanted to get Pixar and had no real interest in giving AAPL content, which went to Hulu and NFLX as soon as Jobs died.  

    AAPL is a disruptive force and there will be all-out content wars in the future.  So the studios and the TV stations and the news media look for any way they can to keep AAPL down – the same way they work very hard to keep Americans from seeing Al Jazeera as a viable entity – even though they are Walter Kronkite compared to Fox.  Overall, it's a long game that's being played and I wouldn't want to guess WHEN something will happen and, frankly, I don't care – because I'm much more patient than that.  

    If you buy a company for a long-term hold, you should buy it BECAUSE you want to hold it long-term, like a house.  And that means you buy it once and then, 10-20 years later, maybe you have occasion to sell it.  In between, you don't obsess over the PRICE because it doesn't matter.   People know and accept this about homes but can't accept it about stocks – even though most of us in the top 1% have a lot more money in stocks than we do in homes.  

    I put up notes last week about how just keeping money in the SPX beats almost every other ETF or hedge fund over the long-haul.  Buffett is notable for beating the S&P over 50 years but what does Buffett do – buys and holds.  This is the hardest thing I try to teach because there's no substitute for experience over time here.  Only by going through the cycles – USING a buy and hold strategy (modified with our scaling and selling premium strategies, of course) does it become clear to you what nonsense all these other "systems" are.  

    Sure it's fun to make short-term trades and I love them as you need something to do while you wait for your trees to grow large and bear fruit but it's also important to keep in mind that short-term trading is just gambling – and should never be taken too seriously.  

    A guy with an apple orchid can afford to give some away but the guy who's juggling 10 apples to survive can't afford to drop even one or two but the guy with the orchard started with 10 apples worth of seeds – and a different philosophy. 

    AAPL should buy a studio:  VIA is $32Bn, NWS is $72Bn, TWX is $53Bn, DIS is $104Bn, Vivendi $22Bn (Bertelsmann is private but around Fox's size).  They haven't because, if they bought one, the others would go insane.  Jobs took Disney stock for Pixar ($7.4Bn) and I think he intended to push for a greater alliance but Disney knew all they had to do was wait and the stock would end up getting redistributed among Steve's heirs, so there was no danger giving him 10% of the company (largest shareholder at the time).  

    The problem at the moment is Steve Jobs had a Tim Cook to run the company for him so he could run around making deals and, of course, his fanatical personality allowed him to ram deals down the throats of record companies at a time when their sales were weak and they were looking for an answer anyway.  Books are more or less a done deal as well but not magazines and newspapers nor TV or Film and that's where the real money is.  

    Tim Cook doesn't need a Tim Cook to run AAPL, Tim Cook needs a Steve Jobs to get out there and make those deals but that's very hard to replicate as part of what made Steve Jobs Steve Jobs was the fact that he came into a room with his reputation glowing around his head like a halo and every word he said carried the full weight of the AAPL Corporation – because the board learned (since they fired him and wrecked the company) never to say no to Steve.  

    You can't replicate that by hiring some guy, no matter how good he is.  

    Of course, Steve Jobs has only been dead for a year and 4 months – so maybe we should give Tim a chance! 

    By the way, Cook donated $100M of his own money last year (mostly to Stanford Hospital and Project Red to fight AIDS and such) and AAPL matched employee charity donations up to $10,000 a year.  AAPL is also spending $100M to move some of it's Mac production back to the US – starting this year.  

    This is not a company (or a CEO) playing a short game and, as we are well-aware, not many investors play the long game.  That makes companies like AAPL fantastic buy opportunities for me, Buffet and the 4 other guys left who actually like to own great companies for the long-term.  



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Zero Hedge

Brexit Day Arrives: Why One Trader Thinks It Will Lead To A "Hefty Rally" In Sterling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With Theresa May's signed Brexit exit letter due to be delivered in just over an hour to Europe, "severe risks to the U.K. economy litter the path ahead" but as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore writes overnight "this isn’t the time to trade on them." Instead the former FX traders lookat flows, and specifically the record speculative sterling shorts, and notes that "at some point, these positions have to be unwound" adding that "after Brexit is officially triggered, there are no other concrete dates on the horizon for bad news, so many shorts will be closed." ...



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Understanding the Debate Over Math Standards

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Math standards and Common core

Equity versus excellence, conceptual understanding versus procedural expertise, and classroom experience versus ivory-tower pedigree. When it comes to math instruction, opposing camps of experts dispute the correct set of priorities to emphasize among the above when directing how math is taught in K-12 classrooms.

Recently, the debate over math instruction has been mistakenly rolled into the debate over the Common Core and other state math standards. These standards are a set of academic targets. Their stated purpose is to create a roadmap for what students need to know in which grades to become college and career ready. Backers of the standards say they were intentionally written to be flexible—so states, districts, and educators wedded to different teaching styles coul...



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The biggest beneficiaries of the so-called Trump rally are giving up some of the gains they made after the election.

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Financial Markets and Economy

US consumer confidence explodes to the highest level since 2000 (Business Insider)

US consumer confidence spiked to a 16-year high in March, according to the Conference Board's monthly survey. 

Traders betting against Wall Street's favorite Trump trade are making a killing (Business Insider)

The biggest beneficiaries of the so-called Trump rally are giving up some of the gains they made after the election.

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Rallies Come Through

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday's action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn't tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route.

The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today's action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today's gain to fix them.



The Nasdaq did today...

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Silver bear market could end here!

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Below looks at the performance of Silver, Gold and the S&P 500 year to date. Metals and miners are off to a good start in 2017. Even though the stock market has received a good deal of attention this year, metals have done even better. Is the performance in 2017 the start of something even bigger for Silver & Gold?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

It’s been a long time since buy and holders have experienced a bull market in Silver. How long has it been? Silver has created a series of lower highs since 2011. The trend ...



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Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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A Quick $20 Trick?

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Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

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Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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