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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    I see Ron's up nice and early – thanks for reminder on GOOG, looks like another nice pullback this morning.  

    No, it's not my birthday yet.  If it were my birthday, we'd be commemorating crucifixions and it would be a National Holiday with even the markets shut down to celebrate – not too long now…

    ABX/StJ – Thanks.  As long as it can be filled, then great but ABX will be popping at the open, I think.  HMY is more speculative than ABX so we'd play them differently if they both tanked and, also, we'd play them differently if they both ran up – being more likely to cash out HMY for short-term profits since it's less long-term predictable.  On INTC – I thought we had some short calls to roll.  If not – then we should do a 3/5 sale.  We'll go over it once the Portfolio is printed.  

    Dollar is 82.85 so higher than we like but keep in mind Dollar moves only matter short-term as they force a reprice in equities and commodities but they quickly adjust to the new range and then it's all about the relative moves.  So, last week it was over and under at 82.75 so it's not like 82.85 a week later is going to rock the markets.  I'd say under 82.75 is still bullish and over 83 still bearish but can range in between with little effect on the markets.  

    Gold re-tested $1,600 at 6:30 but new highs now at $1,606 with a spike to $1,609.20 when trading in NY opened at 8:30 so a preview of squeezes to come is most likely.  Forget how irrelevant Cyprus is in the grand scheme of things – all it takes is a couple of guys like Soros or Agnelopoulos or Latsis (gotta know your International Billionaires!) to pick up the phone and say (put me in 10% gold) and suddenly there's demand for a million shares of GLD, which is about 10% of days average volume, all to the buy side!  

    Wheee on oil already – $92.10 on /CLJ3!  $92.50 just tested on /CLK3 too!   Have I mentioned how much I love Futures trading lately? 

    Gasoline is testing $3.10 but nat gas holding just under $3.95 (way, way up from last year at $2.50 or less in first half) – should be some great buying opportunities there still as this is not at all priced in and $4 will cause a frenzy.  

    Copper $3.43 and a nice buy here but the $3.35 line will be tricky so I'd feel better about a cross over that on /HG.  Silver touched $29 (as predicted brilliantly at 4am) and now around $28.90 and same thing as gold, they could get a nice pop on very little panic but I'd short them at $30.  

    TZA/Yodi – Earlier than I would have liked but we only have two rules at PSW and the first one is: ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement and the second one is:  When in doubt, sell half – so that means we should be looking to take at least 1/2 off the table here and then maybe see how the day goes to decide on the rest. 

    Whoa – there goes $92 on J3!!!!  Congrats to all our oil shorters….  

    That's going to clip the Dow at the open as XOM and CVX react (not to mention the rest of the energy sector dragging the other indexes).  

    What a great start to the week! 



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 30th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Phil's Favorites

Sarkozy, Le Pen Triumph Over Socialists in Second Round of Local Elections

Courtesy of Mish.

The Socialists were routed in the second round of French elections this weekend. The centre-right UMP party led by Nicholas Sarkozy was the clear winner but Marone Le Pen's National Front had it best performance ever at the local level although it did not win any départements.

The Financial Times reports Nicolas Sarkozy the winner as French local polls deal blow to Socialists.
The UMP, led by the former president Nicolas Sarkozy and in an election coalition with the centrist UDI party, won between 66 and 70 départements compared with 41 previously, according to projections from polling companies.

By contrast, the Socialist party looked to have held on to between only 27 and 31 — barely half the 61 département...



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Zero Hedge

The Unintended Consequences Of 'Mandatory Voting'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The question is... would it be any worse?

Source: Townhall via Sunday Funnies

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.6, up slightly from 131.2 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.2, up from the previous week's -3.6 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.

"The Song Remains the Same"

As I type this, the featured article on the ECRI website remains the February 23rd piece, "The Song Remains the Same" (full report requires a subscription), which illustrates the shrinking GDP growth during the seven business cycle expansions since 1970:

For a ...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Insider Scoop

Raymond James Downgrades Power Integrations To Market Perform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related POWI Benzinga's Top Downgrades Benzinga's Volume Movers

Analysts at Raymond James downgraded Power Integrations Inc. (NASDAQ: POWI) from Outperform to Market Perform and removed the price target of $57.00.

Power Integrations shares have dropped 18.42% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 10.69% in the same period.

Power Integrations' shares fell 1.51% to $51.65 in pre-market trading.

Latest Ratings for POWI DateFirmActionFrom...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work -- “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the cur...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin vs. Uber: Bitcoin Lovers Respond to Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

I recently commented that it would not surprise me if bitcoin plunged to $1.00. That was not a prediction, it was a comment.

Still, I still feel a collapse in bitcoin is likely.

For discussion, please see Cash Dinosaur: France Limits Cash Transactions to €1,000, Puts Restrictions on Gold; Bitcoin End Coming?

In response, reader Creighton writes ...

Hello Mish

While I'm not going to argue the point about the possibility that Bitcoin drops to $1, or less, (that could happen yet, but not for the reasons you propose) I felt it necessary to point out something you seem to have overlooked.

While it's likely that the US government watching Bitco...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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