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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    I see Ron's up nice and early – thanks for reminder on GOOG, looks like another nice pullback this morning.  

    No, it's not my birthday yet.  If it were my birthday, we'd be commemorating crucifixions and it would be a National Holiday with even the markets shut down to celebrate – not too long now…

    ABX/StJ – Thanks.  As long as it can be filled, then great but ABX will be popping at the open, I think.  HMY is more speculative than ABX so we'd play them differently if they both tanked and, also, we'd play them differently if they both ran up – being more likely to cash out HMY for short-term profits since it's less long-term predictable.  On INTC – I thought we had some short calls to roll.  If not – then we should do a 3/5 sale.  We'll go over it once the Portfolio is printed.  

    Dollar is 82.85 so higher than we like but keep in mind Dollar moves only matter short-term as they force a reprice in equities and commodities but they quickly adjust to the new range and then it's all about the relative moves.  So, last week it was over and under at 82.75 so it's not like 82.85 a week later is going to rock the markets.  I'd say under 82.75 is still bullish and over 83 still bearish but can range in between with little effect on the markets.  

    Gold re-tested $1,600 at 6:30 but new highs now at $1,606 with a spike to $1,609.20 when trading in NY opened at 8:30 so a preview of squeezes to come is most likely.  Forget how irrelevant Cyprus is in the grand scheme of things – all it takes is a couple of guys like Soros or Agnelopoulos or Latsis (gotta know your International Billionaires!) to pick up the phone and say (put me in 10% gold) and suddenly there's demand for a million shares of GLD, which is about 10% of days average volume, all to the buy side!  

    Wheee on oil already – $92.10 on /CLJ3!  $92.50 just tested on /CLK3 too!   Have I mentioned how much I love Futures trading lately? 

    Gasoline is testing $3.10 but nat gas holding just under $3.95 (way, way up from last year at $2.50 or less in first half) – should be some great buying opportunities there still as this is not at all priced in and $4 will cause a frenzy.  

    Copper $3.43 and a nice buy here but the $3.35 line will be tricky so I'd feel better about a cross over that on /HG.  Silver touched $29 (as predicted brilliantly at 4am) and now around $28.90 and same thing as gold, they could get a nice pop on very little panic but I'd short them at $30.  

    TZA/Yodi – Earlier than I would have liked but we only have two rules at PSW and the first one is: ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement and the second one is:  When in doubt, sell half – so that means we should be looking to take at least 1/2 off the table here and then maybe see how the day goes to decide on the rest. 

    Whoa – there goes $92 on J3!!!!  Congrats to all our oil shorters….  

    That's going to clip the Dow at the open as XOM and CVX react (not to mention the rest of the energy sector dragging the other indexes).  

    What a great start to the week! 



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Despite Warmest May/June On Record, Misses Blamed On "Unseasonably Cool" Weather

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

"Weather," it appears is the new 'dog-ate-my-homework' no matter how much facts get in the way.

 

Compare NOAA's "Facts" about the actual temperatures...

The world’s heat record was broken for a second consecutive month. With the exception of Antarctica, new temperature highs were recorded on every continent.

 

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ...



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Phil's Favorites

Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

 

#463986977 / gettyimages.com Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

Courtesy of Tim Richards of the PsyFi Blog

Homo narratus

Homo sapiens is the storytelling ape. We make sense of the things that happen in the world, of the things that happen to us, and even of ourselves, through stories and narratives. Consciousness is perhaps best defined ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: An Intraday Record High

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-open release of the Consumer Price Index showed core inflation in June to be a tad lighter than forecasts. The S&P 500 opened at its 0.10% intraday low and rallied to its 0.64% record intraday high about ninety minutes into the session. Strong existing home sales announced at 10 AM certainly helped. The index spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range and closed with a 0.50% gain, a mere 0.10% off its record close of July 3rd.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, 1 bp below yesterday's close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.31% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, whi...



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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

NQ Mobile Shares Plummet After Announcing Dismissal Of PwC

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NQ Investors Focus On Earnings Rather Than Geopolitical Tensions NQ Mobile In Possible Short Squeeze; Muddy Waters Sticks To Guns

Shares of NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) dropped as much as 24 percent in Friday's pre-market after the company announced that it has dismissed Pricewaterho...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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