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  1. Phil

    Practice makes perfect (or at least the 60% winners we aim for) Yodi – great attitude that has served you very well.  

    Greeks/Burr – Must listen to this song while we discuss.  If you can make separate portfolios for long and short-term holdings, that would be a good idea because it's ridiculous to apply a single number to both when the strategies are completely different.  Vega, for example, is not useful at all for predicting the value of individual options, it's merely predicting the change in your portfolio as it, in turn, reacts to a change in volatility which, itself, is highly volatile as the VIX is out of control.  So think about what these instruments are really telling you when they are all measuring each other – not much…

     Your Theta's going to look like crap with 2015 longs (especially if they are covered) as your incremental daily gain is minimal, not to mention that, when the market goes up, the VIX goes down and diminshes the "value" of your longs while, when the market goes down, the VIX goes up and your short puts go way against you – so you get a highly inflated negative view of your portfolio that way.  Dan Passerelli is pretty good with the Greeks, if you're interested, he wrote a good book on them.  

    I will bet you that, if you ask Buffett what his Delta, Vega and Theta are he'll tell you – "How the Hell should I know" or something to that effect.  Delta is useful if you are not capable of simply seeing that "Gee, the Dow went up 100 points and my portfolio made $5,000 and Tuesday the Dow dropped 200 points and my portfolio lost $8,000" and then figuring out that you are $5,000 bullish to $4,000 bearish per 100-point move so 25% more bullish than bearish and then all you have to do is find a position that pays you $1,000 if the Dow drops 100 points (like our DIA puts) and PRESTO! you're neutral.  

    And we didn't even have to look at a single Greek…

    Cruise/Canuck – I love the name but I only like cruises with the kids, not my kind of thing in general.  Put the same guys at the Akropolis and I'd be happy to fly there.  They keep offering me free cruises if I do a seminar on the boat but I'm just not into that.  

    Cyprus/Lionel – Last I heard Russia said "F it – we'll lend them some money."  

    DIA/Dawn – Oh, it's those pesky fundamentals again!  I know you don't read the posts but, just a week or so ago, I did a whole analysis of the Dow and we determined it didn't have much further to climb and that some of its components, like FDX, were pretty well overbought and could easily correct on any disappointing news.  Why?  Well, I won't force you to read it – the answer is International Exposure, especially to Europe while the RUT is exposed over 80% to the US, which is in a marked recovery.  You can't keep going back to the well of "conventional market wisdom" as if macro circumstances don't matter – especially these days – they matter a hell of a lot.  

    Cyprus/StJ – I say let them all move to North Dakota and take up fracking.  

    Very nice on conference Terra, thanks!

    IWM/Dawn – Same thing.  

    Bitcoin/Cdt – I think that was BDC.  

    Austerity/StJ – Yep, I read that one.  Actually, what's really happening is that Corporations have become much more effective at capturing the benefits of an up cycle before it has a chance to trickle down to the broader economy.  

    So the real shrinking population is the number of people who are able to benefit from economic gains (though they certainly suffer all of the losses!).  

    Good luck with the house hunt Hemas.  Try Craig's list – they are very good for that sort of thing. 

    Sensor/StJ – That's fantastic.  Especially for diabetics, who have to poke themselves constantly.  

    PGH/Kinki – Must be ex-dividend day, then.  Well, for one thing, you want to buy them back to get your dividend – the cash is in your portfolio, so no big deal and the stock is down .02 this morning so no worries there.  I'd just jump right back in and sell the next sucker the Oct $5 calls (.65) and let them call you away and cancel the premium if they want to!  

    Actually folks, that's a nice, new play.  PGH pays out .12 TODAY and you can buy them for $5.39 and sell the Oct $5 puts for .65 and tomorrow, assuming they go lower, you can sell the $5 puts, that are currently .40, for maybe .50 and that would put you in for a lovely net $4.19/4.60 which makes the .47 annual dividend 11.2% while you wait to see if you get called away at $5 for another 19.3% gain in 7 months.  



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Zero Hedge

Why We Need To Lie To Ourselves About The State Of The Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Satyajit Das via The Sydney Morning Herald,

Like the characters in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, the world awaits the return of wealth and prosperity. But the global economy may be entering a period of stagnation.

Over the last 35 years, the economic growth necessary to increase living standards, increase wealth and manage growing inequality has been based increasingly on rising borrowings and financial rather than real engineering. There was reliance on debt-driven consumption. It resulted in global trade and investment imbalances, such as that between China and the US or...



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Phil's Favorites

Nicole Foss Talks Energy Industry Issues and Oil Price Collapse

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


Unknown California State Automobile Association signage 1925

Nicole Foss recently participated in a live Skype ‘forum’ discussion at the Doomstead Diner site that also included, among others, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum, Norman Pagett and Ugo Bardi. Apologies for the fact that I haven’t watched the videos yet and I’m getting the details as I go, so my info may be a bit sketchy. And so is the order the episodes come in here. I understand episode 3 is not even available yet.

I’ll run this in episodes. Today’s post contains episode 1. Yesterday I posted episode 2, ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

After all that, the stock market finished the week higher (Business Insider)

The stock market had a wild ride this week. And it ultimately ended up even better than it started. 

This week we saw a 1,000 point drop in the Dow in minutes, another drop of around 600 points in an hour of trading, and another day that saw one of the largest single-day point gains for the Dow in history.

Worried about your investments? Here’s the best advice (Market Watch)

The market is on a ...



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Chart School

Gann Angles advise which stocks should be in your portfolio

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Gann Angles are great for stock selection, the momentum trader, and judging corrections.

Here is a winning stock, Gann Angle 4x1 is holding the trend of PriceLine. Amazing trend!

Other stocks in this 7 year bull market like AAPL and SBUX have had great Gann angle supporting trends.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

...“Stocks create their own field of action and power; power to attract and repel,which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dangerous Place for a kiss of resistance, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Anyone noticed its been a wild week? Has anything been proven with all the volatility the past 5-days?

What happens at (1) below, could tell us a good deal about what type of damage did or didn’t take place this week!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The large decline on Monday cause the S&P 500 to break support of this rising channel.

The mid-week rally pushed the S&P higher and as of this morning it is kissing the underside of old support as resistance now, near the 50% retracement level of the large decline over the past few weeks.

Why could th...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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