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  1. Phil

    Practice makes perfect (or at least the 60% winners we aim for) Yodi – great attitude that has served you very well.  

    Greeks/Burr – Must listen to this song while we discuss.  If you can make separate portfolios for long and short-term holdings, that would be a good idea because it's ridiculous to apply a single number to both when the strategies are completely different.  Vega, for example, is not useful at all for predicting the value of individual options, it's merely predicting the change in your portfolio as it, in turn, reacts to a change in volatility which, itself, is highly volatile as the VIX is out of control.  So think about what these instruments are really telling you when they are all measuring each other – not much…

     Your Theta's going to look like crap with 2015 longs (especially if they are covered) as your incremental daily gain is minimal, not to mention that, when the market goes up, the VIX goes down and diminshes the "value" of your longs while, when the market goes down, the VIX goes up and your short puts go way against you – so you get a highly inflated negative view of your portfolio that way.  Dan Passerelli is pretty good with the Greeks, if you're interested, he wrote a good book on them.  

    I will bet you that, if you ask Buffett what his Delta, Vega and Theta are he'll tell you – "How the Hell should I know" or something to that effect.  Delta is useful if you are not capable of simply seeing that "Gee, the Dow went up 100 points and my portfolio made $5,000 and Tuesday the Dow dropped 200 points and my portfolio lost $8,000" and then figuring out that you are $5,000 bullish to $4,000 bearish per 100-point move so 25% more bullish than bearish and then all you have to do is find a position that pays you $1,000 if the Dow drops 100 points (like our DIA puts) and PRESTO! you're neutral.  

    And we didn't even have to look at a single Greek…

    Cruise/Canuck – I love the name but I only like cruises with the kids, not my kind of thing in general.  Put the same guys at the Akropolis and I'd be happy to fly there.  They keep offering me free cruises if I do a seminar on the boat but I'm just not into that.  

    Cyprus/Lionel – Last I heard Russia said "F it – we'll lend them some money."  

    DIA/Dawn – Oh, it's those pesky fundamentals again!  I know you don't read the posts but, just a week or so ago, I did a whole analysis of the Dow and we determined it didn't have much further to climb and that some of its components, like FDX, were pretty well overbought and could easily correct on any disappointing news.  Why?  Well, I won't force you to read it – the answer is International Exposure, especially to Europe while the RUT is exposed over 80% to the US, which is in a marked recovery.  You can't keep going back to the well of "conventional market wisdom" as if macro circumstances don't matter – especially these days – they matter a hell of a lot.  

    Cyprus/StJ – I say let them all move to North Dakota and take up fracking.  

    Very nice on conference Terra, thanks!

    IWM/Dawn – Same thing.  

    Bitcoin/Cdt – I think that was BDC.  

    Austerity/StJ – Yep, I read that one.  Actually, what's really happening is that Corporations have become much more effective at capturing the benefits of an up cycle before it has a chance to trickle down to the broader economy.  

    So the real shrinking population is the number of people who are able to benefit from economic gains (though they certainly suffer all of the losses!).  

    Good luck with the house hunt Hemas.  Try Craig's list – they are very good for that sort of thing. 

    Sensor/StJ – That's fantastic.  Especially for diabetics, who have to poke themselves constantly.  

    PGH/Kinki – Must be ex-dividend day, then.  Well, for one thing, you want to buy them back to get your dividend – the cash is in your portfolio, so no big deal and the stock is down .02 this morning so no worries there.  I'd just jump right back in and sell the next sucker the Oct $5 calls (.65) and let them call you away and cancel the premium if they want to!  

    Actually folks, that's a nice, new play.  PGH pays out .12 TODAY and you can buy them for $5.39 and sell the Oct $5 puts for .65 and tomorrow, assuming they go lower, you can sell the $5 puts, that are currently .40, for maybe .50 and that would put you in for a lovely net $4.19/4.60 which makes the .47 annual dividend 11.2% while you wait to see if you get called away at $5 for another 19.3% gain in 7 months.  



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Zero Hedge

Will Bitcoin Mining Consume All The World's Current Electricity Production By Feb 2020?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via PowerCompare.co.uk,

Bitcoin’s ongoing meteoric price rise has received the bulk of recent press attention with a lot of discussion around whether or not it’s a bubble waiting to burst.

However, most the coverage has missed out one of the more interesting and unintended consequences of this price increase. That is the surge in global electricity consumption used to “mine” more Bitcoins.

How ...

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Phil's Favorites

Bitcoin & Fiat Paper Dollars

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Chris Whalen

This past week on Bloomberg Television, I referred to bitcoin as "a fraud decorated with technology." The fraud comes about because the exchange of a fiat legal dollar for a token, to use the kind description adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission, seems unfair and frankly incomplete. But since the dollar itself is a product of government fiat, the subject seems open to debate.

The fact that a growing crowd of people have decided to speculate in this modern day version of tulip bulbs does not alter the unfairness of the exchange.  Our friend Jim Rickards recently squared off against four bitcoi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin & Fiat Paper Dollars

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Chris Whalen

This past week on Bloomberg Television, I referred to bitcoin as "a fraud decorated with technology." The fraud comes about because the exchange of a fiat legal dollar for a token, to use the kind description adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission, seems unfair and frankly incomplete. But since the dollar itself is a product of government fiat, the subject seems open to debate.

The fact that a growing crowd of people have decided to speculate in this modern day version of tulip bulbs does not alter the unfairness of the exchange.  Our friend Jim Rickards recently squared off against four bitcoi...



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Chart School

Happy Thanksgiving :) Friday Should Be A Winner

Courtesy of Declan

Thanksgiving Wednesday was never going to generate an exciting day but it was good to see early week gains retained. Upcoming Thanksgiving Friday is typically a day when Junior traders go wild and decent gains are posted - even if trading volume is light. With last week's lead action I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern was to repeat.

Tech Indices have been leading the charge in recent days and I would look to the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to be the primary chargers on Friday. Technicals are firmly in the green.

The Nasda...



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Insider Scoop

8 Stocks To Watch For November 22, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 9 Stock's Moving In Tuesday's After Hours Session Salesforce Falls Despite Q3 Beat The Vetr co...

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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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