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  1. Phil

    Churn baby churn!  300,000 contracts traded 116,000 times so far (much more into close) – all to net out 11,000 contracts since yesterday.  Yet it's not considered a crime…

     

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    May'13 92.33 93.34 92.33 93.18 14:04
    Mar 22

    -

    0.73 116952 92.45 300278 Call Put
    Jun'13 92.68 93.62 92.64 93.44 14:04
    Mar 22

    -

    0.67 27523 92.77 167962 Call Put
    Jul'13 93.05 93.80 92.89 93.63 14:04
    Mar 22

    -

    0.64 18109 92.99 120731 Call Put
    Aug'13 93.21 93.79 93.01 93.61 14:04
    Mar 22

    -

    0.59 6257 93.02 74083 Call Put

    $93.50 on the button, by the way – back to being too tempting not to short but very risky, of course (/CL).  

    By the way – here's how Obama can break the NYMEX speculators in 30 days if he wants to:

    The SPR has 800Mb of oil in it and we are, in fact, able to deliver them (that's the point) so all he has to do is accept those 300,000,000 barrels worth of orders at $92.50 ($27.75Bn) and then refuse to buy back the contracts.  By the end of the month, traders will either go nuts trying to find buyers (like FCOJ in Trading Places) or they'll be forced to take delivery of 300M extra barrels of oil during May, which would give us average weekly inventory builds of 75Mb.  

    We'd still have 500Mb in the SPR and, realistically, the oil is still in the US – so it's not like we lost it and, if you wanted to be doubly sure you could restock the SPR, we could also hedge with some 2015 Futures, as they are only $86.51 anyway.  

     

    Dec'15 86.90 86.90 86.37 86.46 14:13
    Mar 22

    -

    -0.05 1925 86.51 59264 Call Put

    I think it would only take one or two months of ramming $5-10Bn losses down the throats of the speculators to put a stop to this nonsense and, if oil crashes and we make an extra $15Bn from selling it – that would be nice too.  



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Zero Hedge

Who Will Really Pay? Mexico Plans Retaliation Over Trump's Border Wall But Ted Cruz Has A Cunning Plan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As President Trump appears to fold on his funding request for a border wall, though tweet-xclaiming "it will get built and help stop drugs, human trafficking etc.," a top Mexican official on Tuesday said that Mexico may consider charging a fee for Americans entering the country in what could be seen as a retaliation to President Trump's posturing.

Trump has asked cong...



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Phil's Favorites

For restaurants looking to boost profits, it's often about everything but the food

 

For restaurants looking to boost profits, it's often about everything but the food

Courtesy of Frank T. McAndrewKnox College

Lighting, layout and music can determine whether you’ll be grabbing a quick bite or staying a while. 'Diners' via www.shutterstock.com

Staying one step ahead of the competition in the hypercompetitive restaurant industry requires more than simply tinkering with the menu. Serving tasty food doesn’t do much good if customers don’t stay long enough – or never even walk through the door in the ...



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ValueWalk

How Not To Get Fired With Smart Beta Investing

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Rob Arnott explains why “history is worse than useless” in forecasting the alpha of smart beta strategies.

Arnott on Forecasting Smart Beta

Chris Brightman asserts that multi-factor equity investing and rebalancing using robust factors is a reliable strategy for outperforming the market without the burden of excessive volatility.

Brightman on Dynamic Multi-Factor Investing

Chris Brightman asserts that multi-factor equity investing and rebalancing using robust factors is a reliable strategy for outperforming the market without the burden of excessive volatility.

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Markets Consolidate

Courtesy of Declan.

After two days of gains it was time for consolidation in markets. The Russell 2000 didn't get this memo and added a third day of gains managing a new closing high.


The S&P finished with a doji which tagged all-time high resistance. Technicals haven't changed from yesterday and relative performance has continued to weaken. The index just has to survive profit-taking and perhaps aggressive shorts looking to take advantage of the resistance tag.

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices rebound after big draw in U.S. crude inventories (Reuters)

Oil prices rebounded from early losses on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a larger-than-expected falloff in crude inventories, which encouraged buying after prices slid for several days on worries that a global crude glut was persisting despite cuts in output by producing countries.

Lucky, Good or Tipped Off? The Curious Case of Government Data and the Pound (The Wall Street Journal)

Some investors could be trading with knowledge of U.K. official statistics before they are publi...



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S&P 500; Dangerous place to run out of gas!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year, be impacting stock prices in 2017? The Power of the Pattern thinks so! Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years. where we applied Fibonacci to the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

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PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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