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July 31st, 2015 2:39 pm
By Alpha Architect. Originally published at ValueWalk.Algorithm Aversion - Why People Don't Follow The Model! by Jack Vogel, Ph.D., Alpha Architect
There are many studies showing that models beat experts, including the meta-study “Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis” by Grove et al. (2000).
However, given this knowledge that models beat experts, forecasters still prefer to use the human (expert) prediction as opposed to using the model.
Why is this?
A recent paper by Dietvorst et al. (2014), titled “...
July 31st, 2015 2:27 pm
Financial Markets and Economy
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's stock market will reopen on Monday after a five-week shutdown caused by capital controls, but local investors will face restrictions aimed at stemming capital flight, a bourse spokeswoman said on Friday.
The Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) (.ATG) (EXCr.AT) has been shut since June 29, when the government closed banks and imposed strict limits on withdrawals and foreign transfers to avert a run on deposits.
The Finance Ministry cleared the way for the exchange to resume operations by issuing a decree setting out new trading rules for local investors. There will be no restrictions on foreign investors.
July 31st, 2015 1:52 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Over the past two days, we’ve documented the escalating violence in Turkey, tracing the roots of Ankara’s newfound zeal for combating Islamic State to a long-running conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party and, more specifically, to an electoral setback for AKP.
In short, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push to consolidate his power by transforming the country into a presidential republic was derailed last month when, for the first time in more than a decade, AKP lost its absolute majority...
July 31st, 2015 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
July 31st, 2015 12:15 pm
Courtesy of John Rubino.
After nearly three decades of stagnation, Japan in 2013 went all-in, ordering its central bank, the Bank of Japan, to buy pretty much every bond on the market with newly-created yen. The BoJ’s balance sheet — a rough proxy for the amount of money it has created and dumped into the economy — soared at a rate that dwarfs, in relation to GDP, the US Fed’s QE programs.
But it’s not working:
Japan’s Consumer Prices Rise Fractionally While Spending Drops (Bloomberg) – Consumer price g...
July 31st, 2015 12:00 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.Related LNKD Bob Peck Still Likes LinkedIn's Innovation: Here's Why He Projects $275 US Stock Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Report LinkedIn (LNKD) Jeffre...
July 30th, 2015 5:21 pm
Courtesy of Declan.Tech indices finished strong after they overcame the opening half hour of selling. The Fed statement was greeted favorably, although market breadth is not looking pretty. The Nasdaq still has a distance to travel to make back all of its losses, but has done well to hold up against Semiconductor weakness.
July 28th, 2015 9:29 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.
The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).
CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE
While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...
July 27th, 2015 7:42 pm
Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.
Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...
July 27th, 2015 9:22 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...
July 24th, 2015 2:16 pm
Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...
Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...
Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom...
June 10th, 2015 10:48 pm
Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).The Baxalta Spinoff
By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price
In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:
“This information statement is being ...
May 3rd, 2015 5:11 pm
Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard
Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself.
March 28th, 2015 7:45 am
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
May 22nd, 2014 5:03 pm
"Hello PSW Members –
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Thank you for you time!
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...