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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    That last oil entry was a bust (now $95.75) and, of course, tomorrow is inventories but the same weather that kept people out of stores may have kept them out of gas stations so I'm not expecting a bullish one.  Still, we don't touch the .25 lines this early in the cycle and they are clearly going for $96 on /CL so we better let them and then see what happens.  $95.75 is about where we pressed our USOs yesterday and we're back to 10 so we can roll up and do it again if we have to.  

    In general, we're looking strong again and, once the S&P is back over the 1,560 line – there's nothing to do BUT be bullish for the duration.  

    Case-Shiller is going like gangbusters, with the 20-City Composite up 8.1% from last year.  Keep in mind that means, if you buy a $300,000 home and put $60,000 down on a 4% mortgage, your monthly payments are about $1,500 and, at the end of the year, your home is worth $24,000 more than you paid for it.  THAT is how you drive people back to the housing market at a rapid pace because that buyer tells two friends and they tell two friends and so on and so on….

    Don't forget, regular people can't play stocks, options, commodities futures… to hedge against inflation – for most people,  their home is their only investment and, once you string together a couple of 8% years and people begin to refinance their homes and buy nice cars that they show off to their family and neighbors as they make fun of them for being too scared to buy a home in 2010 or 2011 – that's how you get that stampede into housing going.

    Also, people who are thinking of buying homes tend to browse all the time and when they see homes they like rising in prices and getting snapped up quicker and quicker – it motivates them to get on board before the train leaves the station.  This is a great formula for building a sustainable base under our rally so we'll watch those builder reports very closely but it's still very early innings if we're going to have a proper housing recovery, of course.  

    As you can see from the above chart – we're still so far from even that 8% a year is nothing so it's our game to lose at this point – it would take a pretty good shock to derail the rally when you consider there are still so many people trapped in underwater mortgages (keeping homes off the market) and so many people who have put off moving for years as we work through the crisis but are getting ready now and so many households that were not created (recent college grads mostly) as that market fell apart and, as noted above, now the own vs. rent calculation has shifted back to own in a big way – a perfect recipe to continue the rally in housing for the foreseeable future.  

    At the open: Dow +0.42% to 14509. S&P +0.46% to 1559. Nasdaq +0.44% to 3250.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.29%. 10-yr -0.17%. 5-yr -0.08%.

    Commodities: Crude +0.96% to $95.72. Gold -0.51% to $1598.35.

    Currencies: Euro +0.07% vs. dollar. Yen +0.21%. Pound +0.17%.

    10:00 Consumer Confidence
    10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
    10:00 New Home Sales
    1:00 PM Results of $35B, 2-Year Note Auction
     

    Market preview: Stocks look poised to open higher after a batch of better-than-expected economic reports point to an ongoing recovery. Durable goods orders climbed 5.7% in February, and the January Case-Shiller home price index soared to its biggest annual increase in six years. European bourses are mostly higher. Still ahead: consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed.

    "At no point is it possible to bail-in depositors below €100K, now or in the future," Reuters reports an EU Commission statement as saying (never mind this is precisely what was attempted in Cyprus last week). It's not our job to evaluate Dijsselbloem's comments on Cyprus, the EU adds. "Dijsselbloem was wrong," says the ECB's Benoit Coeure. "Cyprus isn't a model."

    With traditional housing inventory shrinking to scarce levels, housing bears hang their hats on the so-called "shadow inventory," but that too is disappearing with CoreLogic reporting this potential supply off 18% Y/Y in January to 2.2M units vs. about 2M existing homes currently available for sale. 

    Friend of the Devil:  Warren Buffett (BRK.B) becomes a long-term investor in Goldman Sachs, agreeing to amend his warrant agreement to accept shares for any difference between the $115 exercise price and the value of the stock on Oct. 1, 2013. Buffett: "We intend to hold a significant investment in Goldman Sachs." GS +1.4% premarket. (PR)

    Opinions on retail sales are differing with today's Redbook report on chain store sales indicating consumers are stocking up on spring goods while ISCS-Goldman warned earlier that a batch of winter storms is keeping sales of spring goods lower. The contradicting views follows a familiar path in retail with some analysts seeing the glass half-full (consumer confidence up) and others half-empty (paychecks lower). The tale of the tape shows retail mildly underperforming broad market indexes: S&P Retail ETF (XRT) +7.6% YTD vs. S&P 500 +8.8%.

    Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) says it received approvalfrom the Chinese government for its first shale gas production-sharing contract in China. Shell plans to spend $1B exploring, developing and producing shale gas with partner China National Petroleum in the Fushun-Yongchuan block in the Sichuan basin. 

    As gold miner (GDX) prices fall, company insiders are buying at their fastest pace in years, according to INK Research, which sees seven precious metals stocks on the Toronto Exchange with buyers for every one with sellers. "That is the type of insider buying we saw in the broad market during the height of the great financial crisis."

    When Elon Musk tweets, do people listen? Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) are still holding up even though the electric vehicle automaker's CEO tipped off a potential secondary offering of stock yesterday. Though effusive confidence by a CEO is a nice touch, some traders are warning that Tesla's stock price is looking even riskier with the latest development. Look for Elon Musk to give some enticing details on development of the Model X to help smooth over any news of a capital raise. TSLA +0.2% premarket to $37.60.

    "The big opportunity over the next two years is the low-end phone market," Gene Munster tells Bloomberg, expecting Apple's (AAPL) earnings growth to return in H2 and reiterating his Buy rating on the stock. Munster sees just a modest increase in the dividend – from $10.60 to $14 – and no bump in the buyback. Shares +0.3% premarket.

    Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) Oppenheimer is cuttingFY13 and FY14 estimates. "Much of the revision appears built into investor expectations … However, we also don't see much of a [near-term] positive catalyst until we get closer to the product cycle or get more clarity on Apple's cash intentions." 2) Apple reportedly plans to triple the number of Apple Premium Reseller stores in India to ~200 by 2015. The report comes as Apple's Indian sales start to accelerate. 3) The Next Web takes a look at the complex technologies used by acquisition target WiFiSLAM to master indoor mapping/positioning. (Gene Munster)



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Zero Hedge

Japanese Government Bonds Are Crashing - Biggest Surge in Yields In 2 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Whether due to contagion from the surge in US Treasury yields or a double whammy of weak household spending and Retail Trade data indicating that Abenomics is an utter failure is unclear, but yields across the entire JGB complex are spiking by the most in over 2 years. 10Y yields are up almost 9bps (not much you say) except that is from 32bps to 41bps!! 2Y and 5Y JGB yields have roundtripped from last week's Fed-driven plunge. Is the BoJ/GPIF losing control of the largest and now most illiquid bond market in the world?

This is the bigg...



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Phil's Favorites

3 Things: No Money, Wall Street's Big Scam, Bottom 80%

Courtesy of Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management

Much of the commentary from the more liberal leaning media has continued to tout that the rise in asset markets over the last few years are clear evidence of economic prosperity in this country. However, is that really the case?

In order for rising asset prices to be reflective of overall economic prosperity, the "wealth" generated by those rising asset prices should impact a broad swath of the American populous. Let's take a look to see if that is the case.

"Mo Money" Or No Money

...



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Promotions

Watch Phil on Money Talk on BNN Now!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show last night. As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. (And get this, Obama - the President - is following Phil on Twitter.) ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here.   ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Stifel, Bank Of America Are Talking About Apollo Education

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related APOL Stocks Hitting 52-Week Lows Morning Market Losers Apollo falls on sales, outlook (Investor's Business Daily)

On Thursday, Stifel issued a report on Apollo Education Group Inc (NASDAQ: APOL) as the stock's volume has not recovered. Stifel lowered its target price from $35 to $25, but still rates Apollo Education as a Buy.

"Our Buy thesis which ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Four-Day Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 dropped at the open, despite a good jobless claims report, and hit its -0.75% intraday low. A slow rally took the index to its 0.30% intraday high in the early afternoon. But subsequent selling pushed the index back into the red. It closed with a modest 0.24% decline, the forth consecutive daily loss.

The yield on the 10-year Note rose 8 bps to 2.01%.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily chart of the index, where trading volume was right at its 50-day moving average.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work -- “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the cur...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March, 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin vs. Uber: Bitcoin Lovers Respond to Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

I recently commented that it would not surprise me if bitcoin plunged to $1.00. That was not a prediction, it was a comment.

Still, I still feel a collapse in bitcoin is likely.

For discussion, please see Cash Dinosaur: France Limits Cash Transactions to €1,000, Puts Restrictions on Gold; Bitcoin End Coming?

In response, reader Creighton writes ...

Hello Mish

While I'm not going to argue the point about the possibility that Bitcoin drops to $1, or less, (that could happen yet, but not for the reasons you propose) I felt it necessary to point out something you seem to have overlooked.

While it's likely that the US government watching Bitco...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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