View Single Comment


  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    That last oil entry was a bust (now $95.75) and, of course, tomorrow is inventories but the same weather that kept people out of stores may have kept them out of gas stations so I'm not expecting a bullish one.  Still, we don't touch the .25 lines this early in the cycle and they are clearly going for $96 on /CL so we better let them and then see what happens.  $95.75 is about where we pressed our USOs yesterday and we're back to 10 so we can roll up and do it again if we have to.  

    In general, we're looking strong again and, once the S&P is back over the 1,560 line – there's nothing to do BUT be bullish for the duration.  

    Case-Shiller is going like gangbusters, with the 20-City Composite up 8.1% from last year.  Keep in mind that means, if you buy a $300,000 home and put $60,000 down on a 4% mortgage, your monthly payments are about $1,500 and, at the end of the year, your home is worth $24,000 more than you paid for it.  THAT is how you drive people back to the housing market at a rapid pace because that buyer tells two friends and they tell two friends and so on and so on….

    Don't forget, regular people can't play stocks, options, commodities futures… to hedge against inflation – for most people,  their home is their only investment and, once you string together a couple of 8% years and people begin to refinance their homes and buy nice cars that they show off to their family and neighbors as they make fun of them for being too scared to buy a home in 2010 or 2011 – that's how you get that stampede into housing going.

    Also, people who are thinking of buying homes tend to browse all the time and when they see homes they like rising in prices and getting snapped up quicker and quicker – it motivates them to get on board before the train leaves the station.  This is a great formula for building a sustainable base under our rally so we'll watch those builder reports very closely but it's still very early innings if we're going to have a proper housing recovery, of course.  

    As you can see from the above chart – we're still so far from even that 8% a year is nothing so it's our game to lose at this point – it would take a pretty good shock to derail the rally when you consider there are still so many people trapped in underwater mortgages (keeping homes off the market) and so many people who have put off moving for years as we work through the crisis but are getting ready now and so many households that were not created (recent college grads mostly) as that market fell apart and, as noted above, now the own vs. rent calculation has shifted back to own in a big way – a perfect recipe to continue the rally in housing for the foreseeable future.  

    At the open: Dow +0.42% to 14509. S&P +0.46% to 1559. Nasdaq +0.44% to 3250.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.29%. 10-yr -0.17%. 5-yr -0.08%.

    Commodities: Crude +0.96% to $95.72. Gold -0.51% to $1598.35.

    Currencies: Euro +0.07% vs. dollar. Yen +0.21%. Pound +0.17%.

    10:00 Consumer Confidence
    10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
    10:00 New Home Sales
    1:00 PM Results of $35B, 2-Year Note Auction
     

    Market preview: Stocks look poised to open higher after a batch of better-than-expected economic reports point to an ongoing recovery. Durable goods orders climbed 5.7% in February, and the January Case-Shiller home price index soared to its biggest annual increase in six years. European bourses are mostly higher. Still ahead: consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed.

    "At no point is it possible to bail-in depositors below €100K, now or in the future," Reuters reports an EU Commission statement as saying (never mind this is precisely what was attempted in Cyprus last week). It's not our job to evaluate Dijsselbloem's comments on Cyprus, the EU adds. "Dijsselbloem was wrong," says the ECB's Benoit Coeure. "Cyprus isn't a model."

    With traditional housing inventory shrinking to scarce levels, housing bears hang their hats on the so-called "shadow inventory," but that too is disappearing with CoreLogic reporting this potential supply off 18% Y/Y in January to 2.2M units vs. about 2M existing homes currently available for sale. 

    Friend of the Devil:  Warren Buffett (BRK.B) becomes a long-term investor in Goldman Sachs, agreeing to amend his warrant agreement to accept shares for any difference between the $115 exercise price and the value of the stock on Oct. 1, 2013. Buffett: "We intend to hold a significant investment in Goldman Sachs." GS +1.4% premarket. (PR)

    Opinions on retail sales are differing with today's Redbook report on chain store sales indicating consumers are stocking up on spring goods while ISCS-Goldman warned earlier that a batch of winter storms is keeping sales of spring goods lower. The contradicting views follows a familiar path in retail with some analysts seeing the glass half-full (consumer confidence up) and others half-empty (paychecks lower). The tale of the tape shows retail mildly underperforming broad market indexes: S&P Retail ETF (XRT) +7.6% YTD vs. S&P 500 +8.8%.

    Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) says it received approvalfrom the Chinese government for its first shale gas production-sharing contract in China. Shell plans to spend $1B exploring, developing and producing shale gas with partner China National Petroleum in the Fushun-Yongchuan block in the Sichuan basin. 

    As gold miner (GDX) prices fall, company insiders are buying at their fastest pace in years, according to INK Research, which sees seven precious metals stocks on the Toronto Exchange with buyers for every one with sellers. "That is the type of insider buying we saw in the broad market during the height of the great financial crisis."

    When Elon Musk tweets, do people listen? Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) are still holding up even though the electric vehicle automaker's CEO tipped off a potential secondary offering of stock yesterday. Though effusive confidence by a CEO is a nice touch, some traders are warning that Tesla's stock price is looking even riskier with the latest development. Look for Elon Musk to give some enticing details on development of the Model X to help smooth over any news of a capital raise. TSLA +0.2% premarket to $37.60.

    "The big opportunity over the next two years is the low-end phone market," Gene Munster tells Bloomberg, expecting Apple's (AAPL) earnings growth to return in H2 and reiterating his Buy rating on the stock. Munster sees just a modest increase in the dividend – from $10.60 to $14 – and no bump in the buyback. Shares +0.3% premarket.

    Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) Oppenheimer is cuttingFY13 and FY14 estimates. "Much of the revision appears built into investor expectations … However, we also don't see much of a [near-term] positive catalyst until we get closer to the product cycle or get more clarity on Apple's cash intentions." 2) Apple reportedly plans to triple the number of Apple Premium Reseller stores in India to ~200 by 2015. The report comes as Apple's Indian sales start to accelerate. 3) The Next Web takes a look at the complex technologies used by acquisition target WiFiSLAM to master indoor mapping/positioning. (Gene Munster)



To see many more insightful comments, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.

See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

ValueWalk

Bungled repairs and new concerns at the tallest US dam

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Remember the crisis earlier this year at the Oroville Dam?

The overflow from California’s winter of heavy rain threatened to overpower our country’s tallest dam. A cascading failure of the dam’s main gates, its primarily spillway AND its emergency spillway had the world watching hour by hour to see if a catastrophic breach was going to occur.

Oroville Dam By California Department of Water Resources [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsFortunately, the rains stopped long enough for the situation to be brought under control. The dam remains in place and repair crews have been working all spring and summer....



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Waiting for the Bounce - Vacation until September 3rd.

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday offered the opportunity for more but in the end it was honors even between bulls and bears.

The S&P finished the week on bearish net technicals on higher volume distribution. One positive was a potential doji (and a chance for a 'bullish morning star' on Monday) which is a chance for bulls to buy the open with a stop on a loss of 2,420. Another is the very strong relative performance - when money comes into the market it's the S&P where it's going.


A second bite of the cherry for b...

more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Making driverless cars safe for people on foot

 

Making driverless cars safe for people on foot

Courtesy of Michael ClamannDuke University

Is it safe to cross? Duke Humans and Anatomy Lab, CC BY-ND

Right now, there are two ways to be safe crossing a road: Wait until no cars are close by, so there’s enough time to make it to the other side of the street – or communicate with oncoming drivers. As the number of pedestrian deaths on U.S. roads climbs, up 25 percent since 2010 to more than 5,000 people i...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Bannon: "No Administration In History Has Been So Divided"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"Bannon the Barbarian" has been spending a lot of time talking to reporters since being fired by President Donald Trump on Friday. During an interview with Bloomberg, his first after being relieved of his duties as Trump’s chief strategist and returning to his former leadership role at Breitbart, Bannon claimed that he was going “to war” for Trump, and that he would marshal the resources of Breitbart, the Government A...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

Things To Like, Things To Watch At The Gap

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GPS 20 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Repor...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



more from Bitcoin

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>