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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Futures up about 0.3% but off the highs since Europe opened.  

    Still, we're doing quite well with the Dollar at 82.90 and the Yen topped out at 99.88 and the Euro bottomed out at $1.304 and the Pound hit $1.52.  Our own S&P, in a long-term perspective, is doing just fine:

    Dow 16,000 was the cover of Barron's this weekend.  

    expand

    The U.S. economy will become 3% larger in July as the government becomes one of the first to use a new international standard for GDP accounting. Among other things, statisticians will now take into account R&D investment, which will add just over 2%, and creative works, which will add another 0.5%. The government will backdate the changes to 1929, so there are unlikely to be changes in trends or cycles. - But it will magically lower our debt to GDP ratio – clever!

    Oil laying about at 88.27, gold $1,422, silver $23.34, copper even worse at $3.10, Nat gas came down a ton (I knew that was a good short) to $4.32 and gasoline still low(ish) at $2.76.  

    Not much going on.  Europe is up about half a point, led by Spain, up 1.8%.  National Bank of Greece up 8% – interesting.  

    On the other hand, Philips is down 4% and Commerzbank is also down 4% so I don't know what people are so excited about – must read more…

    Govt watchdog is calculating size of implicit subsidy of TBTF banks (Barron’s)

    Shiller: Before Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever (NYT)

    A Heretical, Rational Perspective on Gold (Cognitive Concord)

    The Nikkei topped out at 13,700 on the button and fell back to 13,600 but now 13,630.  Always makes a good short below 100 lines if our markets turn down or the Dollar starts falling relative to the Yen – especially as there aren't too many people in Europe or China buying Japanese goods at the moment.  

    China had an earthquake but their markets ended the day flat.  

    China earthquake shears off mountainsides, kills 186 people. A strong earthquake that struck the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan this weekend has killed 186 people, sent nearly 8,200 to hospitals and created a dire dearth of drinking water, Chinese state-run Xinhua reported Sunday. Earlier reports had said as many as 11,200 people were injured.

    Copper Drops for Second Day as China Quake Raises Demand Concern. Copper declined for a second day in London amid speculation that an earthquake in China’s Sichuan province will hurt demand for the metal in the near-term before it boosts consumption in the reconstruction. Metal for delivery in three months fell as much as 1.5 percent to $6,888.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, before trading at $6,935.50 at 9:44 a.m. Shanghai time, headed for the lowest close since October 2011. Copper declined for a fifth consecutive week and dropped into a bear market. The August futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.1 percent to 50,110 yuan ($8,107) a ton. 

    China Rebar Falls as Iron Ore Price Decline, Steel Supply Rises. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell, extending the biggest weekly decline in two months, amid rising output from domestic mills and a decline in the price of iron ore. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,665 yuan ($593) before trading at 3,678 at 10:12 a.m. local time. Futures lost 4 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since Feb. 22. Spot iron ore at Tianjin port fell for the fifth day to $138 a dry ton on April 19, the Steel Index Ltd. data show. China’s daily crude steel output nationwide in early April was estimated to have risen 2.5 percent from late-March, Custeel.com analyst Hu Yanping said on April 18. “Supply still exceeds demand in the rebar market,” Jiang Yuying, an analyst at Chengdu Brilliant Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai today. 

    Oil prices have been weakened by oversupply of 1.5 million barrels a day, citing Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's governor to OPEC.

    Barron's Money Poll:

    image

    Lot's of earnings this week along with housing data – should be an exciting week, especially with AAPL tomorrow.  

    Chicago Fed should be a bummer at 8:30 but Existing Home Sales at 10 ought to be nice.  

    Jeremy Grantham on population growth, China and climate sceptics (The Guardian)

    The Remarkable Decline in the Wall Street Journal’s Long-Form Journalism (Atlantic)



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Zero Hedge

Trump Meets Pope - Nothing Crazy Happens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump and The Pope came face to face after the mainstream media had promoted this clash of the titans as likely to end in fireworks as the two world 'leaders' sparred over border walls, socialism, immigration, global terror, and whatever else the media thinks will divide the world most effectively.

Sadly for the media, nothing crazy happened...

Honor of a lifetime to meet His Holiness Pope Francis. I leave the Vatican more determined than ever to pursue PEACE in our world. pic.twitter.com/JzJDy7pllI

— Donald J. Trump (...



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ValueWalk

Manchester Bombing Could Expand Use of GPS Ankle Trackers

By JOHN F. BANZHAF. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In the wake of the Manchester bombing, Britain and other European countries may want to follow Germany’s lead to begin using GPS ankle tracking device as the only cost-effective means to keep track of the thousands of persons on watch lists or otherwise suspected of potential terrorist activities, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf.

The Evening Standard reported that Salman Abedi, the Manchester bomber “was known to security services” but was not under surveillance or otherwise being investigated because “they did not believe he posed an immediate threat,” and keeping track of the thousands of persons under suspicion at any time to prevent another Manchester bombing style attack is prohibitively expensive.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Predictions - A Fool's Errand

 

Predictions – A Fool’s Errand

Courtesy of Wade Slome, Investing Caffeine

Making bold predictions is a fool’s errand. I think Yogi Berra summed it up best when he spoke about the challenges of making predictions:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

While making predictions might seem like a pleasurable endeavor, the reality is nobody has been able to consistently predict the future (remember the 2012 Mayan Doomsday?), besides perhaps palm readers and ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Trump budget to increase growth by boosting investment, labor force: Mnuchin (Reuters)

The Trump administration believes its budget plan will boost economic growth by fostering capital investment and creating jobs for workers who gave up their job hunts during tough times, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday.

With Earnings Season Over, the Insecurity Can Begin for S&P 500 Bulls (Bloomberg)

The issue is earnings season, which for the past four years has occasioned an astonishing amount of the upside in the American...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Chart School

Gains Push Into Breakdown Gap

Courtesy of Declan.

While today's gains were modest they were significant in generating clean pushes inside last week's breakdown gaps. This brings indices back to challenge 'bull traps'

The S&P experienced lighter volume trading as On-Balance-Volume moved to a 'buy' trigger. Today's action opens up for a challenge of 2,405, although shorts may see this as opportunity to go aggressive with a tight stop once markets makes all-time highs.


The Nasdaq is also approaching its 'bull trap'. On-Balance-Volume holds to its ac...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars Above $2000 For First Time Ever

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up over 100% in 2017, amid global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia, suddenly spiking above $2000 this afternoon for the first time ever...

That is a year-over-year gain of more than 350%. The move comes, as CoinDesk notes, amid a broader boost in the cryptocurrency market, which broke the $60bn barrier today. The increase has taken place amid strong surges from Ripple's XRP, which seeks to lower costs in enterprise cross-border payments, and ethereum's ether token, a cryptographic asse...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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