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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Futures up about 0.3% but off the highs since Europe opened.  

    Still, we're doing quite well with the Dollar at 82.90 and the Yen topped out at 99.88 and the Euro bottomed out at $1.304 and the Pound hit $1.52.  Our own S&P, in a long-term perspective, is doing just fine:

    Dow 16,000 was the cover of Barron's this weekend.  

    expand

    The U.S. economy will become 3% larger in July as the government becomes one of the first to use a new international standard for GDP accounting. Among other things, statisticians will now take into account R&D investment, which will add just over 2%, and creative works, which will add another 0.5%. The government will backdate the changes to 1929, so there are unlikely to be changes in trends or cycles. - But it will magically lower our debt to GDP ratio – clever!

    Oil laying about at 88.27, gold $1,422, silver $23.34, copper even worse at $3.10, Nat gas came down a ton (I knew that was a good short) to $4.32 and gasoline still low(ish) at $2.76.  

    Not much going on.  Europe is up about half a point, led by Spain, up 1.8%.  National Bank of Greece up 8% – interesting.  

    On the other hand, Philips is down 4% and Commerzbank is also down 4% so I don't know what people are so excited about – must read more…

    Govt watchdog is calculating size of implicit subsidy of TBTF banks (Barron’s)

    Shiller: Before Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever (NYT)

    A Heretical, Rational Perspective on Gold (Cognitive Concord)

    The Nikkei topped out at 13,700 on the button and fell back to 13,600 but now 13,630.  Always makes a good short below 100 lines if our markets turn down or the Dollar starts falling relative to the Yen – especially as there aren't too many people in Europe or China buying Japanese goods at the moment.  

    China had an earthquake but their markets ended the day flat.  

    China earthquake shears off mountainsides, kills 186 people. A strong earthquake that struck the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan this weekend has killed 186 people, sent nearly 8,200 to hospitals and created a dire dearth of drinking water, Chinese state-run Xinhua reported Sunday. Earlier reports had said as many as 11,200 people were injured.

    Copper Drops for Second Day as China Quake Raises Demand Concern. Copper declined for a second day in London amid speculation that an earthquake in China’s Sichuan province will hurt demand for the metal in the near-term before it boosts consumption in the reconstruction. Metal for delivery in three months fell as much as 1.5 percent to $6,888.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, before trading at $6,935.50 at 9:44 a.m. Shanghai time, headed for the lowest close since October 2011. Copper declined for a fifth consecutive week and dropped into a bear market. The August futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.1 percent to 50,110 yuan ($8,107) a ton. 

    China Rebar Falls as Iron Ore Price Decline, Steel Supply Rises. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell, extending the biggest weekly decline in two months, amid rising output from domestic mills and a decline in the price of iron ore. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,665 yuan ($593) before trading at 3,678 at 10:12 a.m. local time. Futures lost 4 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since Feb. 22. Spot iron ore at Tianjin port fell for the fifth day to $138 a dry ton on April 19, the Steel Index Ltd. data show. China’s daily crude steel output nationwide in early April was estimated to have risen 2.5 percent from late-March, Custeel.com analyst Hu Yanping said on April 18. “Supply still exceeds demand in the rebar market,” Jiang Yuying, an analyst at Chengdu Brilliant Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai today. 

    Oil prices have been weakened by oversupply of 1.5 million barrels a day, citing Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's governor to OPEC.

    Barron's Money Poll:

    image

    Lot's of earnings this week along with housing data – should be an exciting week, especially with AAPL tomorrow.  

    Chicago Fed should be a bummer at 8:30 but Existing Home Sales at 10 ought to be nice.  

    Jeremy Grantham on population growth, China and climate sceptics (The Guardian)

    The Remarkable Decline in the Wall Street Journal’s Long-Form Journalism (Atlantic)



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ValueWalk

Contrarian Signals (Or Why Romania May Be the World's Best Performing Market This Year)

By Michael McGaughy. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap.  This post is mostly about valuation and how bankers and financial experts take away the punch bowl just when an investment becomes attractive. Nedd3_89 / Pixabay

I’ve written before how doing the opposite of what the financial institutions are doing and recommend (see here). This post is in the same vein .

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Roughly every month, but on no particular day or date schedule, I get together with Gordon Long to discuss the global macro picture. This month’s spotlight is on Europe: target2, elections, and Turkey but with a mix of discussion regarding the US and Australia.

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James Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Emerging Threats at NATO – now that’s a lovely title – recently gave a talk at a private club in London on the Islamic State/Daesh. Shea, as many will remember, made his name as NATO’s spokesman during the NATO war on Yugoslavia in 1999.

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A year ago flows into ETFs were extremely low, actually the lowest in years, as many stock market indices were testing rising support off the 2009 lows. The crowd wasn’t adding money to ETFs as lows were taking place. In hindsight, this was a mistake by the majority. Below I look at ETF flows over the past few years with an inset chart of the S&P 500.

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Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

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