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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Futures up about 0.3% but off the highs since Europe opened.  

    Still, we're doing quite well with the Dollar at 82.90 and the Yen topped out at 99.88 and the Euro bottomed out at $1.304 and the Pound hit $1.52.  Our own S&P, in a long-term perspective, is doing just fine:

    Dow 16,000 was the cover of Barron's this weekend.  

    expand

    The U.S. economy will become 3% larger in July as the government becomes one of the first to use a new international standard for GDP accounting. Among other things, statisticians will now take into account R&D investment, which will add just over 2%, and creative works, which will add another 0.5%. The government will backdate the changes to 1929, so there are unlikely to be changes in trends or cycles. - But it will magically lower our debt to GDP ratio – clever!

    Oil laying about at 88.27, gold $1,422, silver $23.34, copper even worse at $3.10, Nat gas came down a ton (I knew that was a good short) to $4.32 and gasoline still low(ish) at $2.76.  

    Not much going on.  Europe is up about half a point, led by Spain, up 1.8%.  National Bank of Greece up 8% – interesting.  

    On the other hand, Philips is down 4% and Commerzbank is also down 4% so I don't know what people are so excited about – must read more…

    Govt watchdog is calculating size of implicit subsidy of TBTF banks (Barron’s)

    Shiller: Before Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever (NYT)

    A Heretical, Rational Perspective on Gold (Cognitive Concord)

    The Nikkei topped out at 13,700 on the button and fell back to 13,600 but now 13,630.  Always makes a good short below 100 lines if our markets turn down or the Dollar starts falling relative to the Yen – especially as there aren't too many people in Europe or China buying Japanese goods at the moment.  

    China had an earthquake but their markets ended the day flat.  

    China earthquake shears off mountainsides, kills 186 people. A strong earthquake that struck the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan this weekend has killed 186 people, sent nearly 8,200 to hospitals and created a dire dearth of drinking water, Chinese state-run Xinhua reported Sunday. Earlier reports had said as many as 11,200 people were injured.

    Copper Drops for Second Day as China Quake Raises Demand Concern. Copper declined for a second day in London amid speculation that an earthquake in China’s Sichuan province will hurt demand for the metal in the near-term before it boosts consumption in the reconstruction. Metal for delivery in three months fell as much as 1.5 percent to $6,888.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, before trading at $6,935.50 at 9:44 a.m. Shanghai time, headed for the lowest close since October 2011. Copper declined for a fifth consecutive week and dropped into a bear market. The August futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.1 percent to 50,110 yuan ($8,107) a ton. 

    China Rebar Falls as Iron Ore Price Decline, Steel Supply Rises. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell, extending the biggest weekly decline in two months, amid rising output from domestic mills and a decline in the price of iron ore. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,665 yuan ($593) before trading at 3,678 at 10:12 a.m. local time. Futures lost 4 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since Feb. 22. Spot iron ore at Tianjin port fell for the fifth day to $138 a dry ton on April 19, the Steel Index Ltd. data show. China’s daily crude steel output nationwide in early April was estimated to have risen 2.5 percent from late-March, Custeel.com analyst Hu Yanping said on April 18. “Supply still exceeds demand in the rebar market,” Jiang Yuying, an analyst at Chengdu Brilliant Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai today. 

    Oil prices have been weakened by oversupply of 1.5 million barrels a day, citing Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's governor to OPEC.

    Barron's Money Poll:

    image

    Lot's of earnings this week along with housing data – should be an exciting week, especially with AAPL tomorrow.  

    Chicago Fed should be a bummer at 8:30 but Existing Home Sales at 10 ought to be nice.  

    Jeremy Grantham on population growth, China and climate sceptics (The Guardian)

    The Remarkable Decline in the Wall Street Journal’s Long-Form Journalism (Atlantic)



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ValueWalk

Berkshire Hathaway Adds $250 Million to its Stake in Liberty Media

By Dr. David Kass. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In an SEC Form 4 filing this evening, Berkshire Hathaway (Ted Weschler) reported a $250 million increase in its stake in Liberty Media SiriusXM Group (LSXMA and LSXMK) at $39.95 per share on April 20, 2017.

By Mark Hirschey (Work of Mark Hirschey) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The post Berkshire Hathaway Adds $250 Million to its Stake in Liberty Media appeared first on ...



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Market News

The Geopolitics Of Nuclear Weapons Explained (In 3 Simple Maps)

Courtesy of George Friedman, Xander Snyder, and Chyenne Ligon, Mauldin Economics

Nuclear bombs have a strange quality: They are a type of weapon that countries spend enormous sums of money to develop but don’t actually intend to use. While chemical weapons have been frequently used in war, no country has detonated a nuclear bomb since the end of World War II.

Nuclear weapons are in their own category. Their efficacy comes from their ability to deter aggression, as the potential for massive devastation forces countries to rethink moves that threaten an adversary’s essential national security interests. States, therefore, are unlikely to use nuclear weapons against one another. However, the risk of a nuclear attack would increase if they were to fall into the hands of non-state actors that follow a diffe...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump's brand of economic populism gets a makeover in first 100 days

 

Trump's brand of economic populism gets a makeover in first 100 days

Courtesy of Charles Hankla, Georgia State University

How can we make sense of the economic policy roller-coaster ride of Donald Trump’s first 100 days as president?

Trump’s statements soon after taking office made many hope (or fear) that a new form of populism had become the guiding ideology of the White House. But a dizzying series of reversals in recent weeks has led others ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...



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Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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