Archive for September, 2005

Testy Tuesday Morning

Another day where we will be testing our levels. On the whole, we are getting the exact kind of consolidation we were looking for in mid-August but without the sell-off. I would have rather had the sell-off so I could be more comfortable buying calls but if it does break up we’ll take it! Asia was mixed, still hammered by falling commodity stocks with steel making a downside move today. Europe is flat this morning I am very uncomfortable with the indices not hitting our numbers yesterday but I’m encouraged by the movement on the SOX and the Transports so it’s going to be another wait and see sort of day. http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$sox,$tranq Today we will only look to the upside; anything down will be a bad sign as we need a change in leadership to overcome the commodity sell-off. Let’s look for Dow 11,400, S&P 1,300 and Nasdaq 2,175. Both the Nasdaq and the NYSE will set direction for today but watch the NYSE very closely as it tested the 50 dma of 8,222 yesterday and needs to make a move towards 8,300 today. Oil took a nice bounce off $65 yesterday and traders were determined to test $66, which they did European trading. The test did not go well so we may be testing $65 on the downside in US trading today. I think we would make real progress in this country if we forced the same analysts that predicted $100 oil to come back on TV when oil is plunging and tell us what the heck they were thinking at the time (it was only 3 weeks ago, surely they remember!). Instead the oil pumpers rode off into the sunset and now we have a whole new batch of geniuses coming on TV telling us how the commodities markets are “clearly overbought” and now they take turns coming up with ridiculously low targets, some down to $30 a barrel… I suppose we can blame CNBC et al for lacking any editorial oversight, this is epitomized by Cramer yesterday telling viewers that CVX is far from a bottom at $62. In his August 7th show, with CVX at $67 he recommended BHI and Chevron as featured picks. http://seekingalpha.com/article/15127 I don’t want to pick on Cramer as I love the guy but this is the problem with all analysts in a nutshell, there is a lack of accountability – even…
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Monday Madness

Wheee, what a day! 19 successful oil and gold plays averaging over 300% gains! Many of these were rolls from profits on earlier trades, one of these days I need to track these things in a chart… Just a 90-minute sell-off then back in the black for the rest of the day. This must be very frustrating for bears at this point (other than us commodity bears!). SOX made a huge power move, up 2% but pulling back at the close to finish below 450 but I’m going to say it’s consolidating for a run at 480 (the 200 dma). The transports led today’s rally with a huge bounce off 2,310, running all the way to the top of last week’s channel at 2,370. We got our Nasdaq leadership but none of the indices were very strong. With the massive hits being taken by PD (down 8%), BTU (- 7%), AU (-7.5%), XOM (- 3%) and other commodities, it’s amazing we weren’t down a percent or two. The XAU may seem like it had a big sell-off with a 3% drop on the day but it is still well above the June close and 30% above this time last year. The same can be said for OSX, which is flat to last year but still 50% above Sept ’04 levels. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EOSX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= Oil is now just $10 above September ’04 levels of $55 while gold is about 15% over last fall’s pricing. In both cases however, the underlying commodity was on an upswing and the stock prices reflected high expectations. OPEC, as expected, elected to leave production levels in place. When your country’s 1M exported barrels a day drop from $75 to $65 you are already out $360M a year, giving up production of another 100,000 barrels a day ($2.3Bn/yr) in order to maintain $65 pricing is just not something you get a lot of volunteers for. OPEC needs 10 such volunteers in order to make any significant production cutback. Gold closed at $597 and what is really awful for both gold and oil bulls is that the dollar was relatively flat today ahead of some big auctions this week. All in all things could not have gone much better. Only the REITs surprised me with a big turnaround on hopes that the Fed is done (but didn’t we already play that song?). Someone is making a big bet on all…
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Zero Hedge

Belgian F-16 Pilot Ejects Before Fiery Crash, Gets Caught In High Voltage Power Lines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A Belgian F-16 fighter jet crashed in Northwestern France on Thursday, leaving one of its pilots hanging by his parachute from high voltage electricity lines, according to the BBC

Both pilots had minor injuries after they ejected from the plane, which clipped the roof of a house and crashed in a field near Pluvinger. The pilot stuck in the 250,000 volt power lines was brought down after a two hour rescue operation by French emergency ser...



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Phil's Favorites

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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